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Governments and companies constantly face decisions about how to allocate finite amounts of money to clean energy technologies that can make a difference to the world’s climate, its economies, and to society as a whole. The process is inherently uncertain, but research has been shown to help predict which technologies will be most successful. Using data-driven bases for such decisions can have a significant impact on allowing more informed decisions that produce the desired results.

The role of these predictive tools, and the areas where further research is needed, are addressed in a perspective article published Nov. 24 in Nature Energy, by professor Jessika Trancik of MIT’s Sociotechnical Systems Research Center and Institute of Data, Systems, and Society and 13 co-authors from institutions around the world.

She and her co-authors span engineering and social science and share “a common interest in understanding how to best use data and models to inform decisions that influence how technology evolves,” Trancik says. They are interested in “analyzing many evolving technologies — rather than focusing on developing only one particular technology — to understand which ones can deliver.” Their paper is aimed at companies and governments, as well as researchers. “Increasingly, companies have as much agency as governments over these technology portfolio decisions,” she says, “although government policy can still do a lot because it can provide a sort of signal across the market.”

The study looked at three stages of the process, starting with forecasting the actual technological changes that are likely to play important roles in coming years, then looking at how those changes could affect economic, social, and environmental conditions, and finally, how to apply these insights into the actual decision-making processes as they occur.

Forecasting usually falls into two categories, either data-driven or expert-driven, or a combination of those. That provides an estimate of how technologies may be improving, as well as an estimate of the uncertainties in those predictions. Then in the next step, a variety of models are applied that are “very wide ranging,” Trancik says, “different models that cover energy systems, transportation systems, electricity, and also integrated assessment models that look at the impact of technology on the environment and on the economy.”

And then, the third step is “finding structured ways to use the information from predictive models to interact with people that may be using that information to inform their decision-making process,” she says. “In all three of these steps, how you need to recognize the vast uncertainty and tease out the predictive aspects. How you deal with uncertainty is really important.”

In the implementation of these decisions, “people may have different objectives, or they may have the same objective but different beliefs about how to get there. And so, part of the research is bringing in this quantitative analysis, these research results, into that process,” Trancik says. And a very important aspect of that third step, she adds, is “recognizing that it’s not just about presenting the model results and saying, ‘here you go, this is the right answer.’ Rather, you have to bring people into the process of designing the studies and interacting with the modeling results.”

She adds that “the role of research is to provide information to, in this case, the decision-making processes. It’s not the role of the researchers to push for one outcome or another, in terms of balancing the trade-offs,” such as between economic, environmental, and social equity concerns. It’s about providing information, not just for the decision-makers themselves, but also for the public who may influence those decisions. “I do think it’s relevant for the public to think about this, and to think about the agency that actually they could have over how technology is evolving.”

In the study, the team highlighted priorities for further research that needs to be done. Those priorities, Trancik says, include “streamlining and validating models, and also streamlining data collection,” because these days “we often have more data than we need, just tons of data,” and yet “there’s often a scarcity of data in certain key areas like technology performance and evolution. How technologies evolve is just so important in influencing our daily lives, yet it’s hard sometimes to access good representative data on what’s actually happening with this technology.” But she sees opportunities for concerted efforts to assemble large, comprehensive data on technology from publicly available sources.

Trancik points out that many models are developed to represent some real-world process, and “it’s very important to test how well that model does against reality,” for example by using the model to “predict” some event whose outcome is already known and then “seeing how far off you are.” That’s easier to do with a more streamlined model, she says.

“It’s tempting to develop a model that includes many, many parameters and lots of different detail. But often what you need to do is only include detail that’s relevant for the particular question you’re asking, and that allows you to make your model simpler.” Sometimes that means you can simplify the decision down to just solving an equation, and other times, “you need to simulate things, but you can still validate the model against real-world data that you have.”

“The scale of energy and climate problems mean there is much more to do,” says Gregory Nemet, faculty chair in business and regulation at the University of Wisconsin at Madison, who was a co-author of the paper. He adds, “while we can’t accurately forecast individual technologies on their own, a variety of methods have been developed that in conjunction can enable decision-makers to make public dollars go much further, and enhance the likelihood that future investments create strong public benefits.”

This work is perhaps particularly relevant now, Trancik says, in helping to address global challenges including climate change and meeting energy demand, which were in focus at the global climate conference COP 30 that just took place in Brazil. “I think with big societal challenges like climate change, always a key question is, ‘how do you make progress with limited time and limited financial resources?’” This research, she stresses, “is all about that. It’s about using data, using knowledge that’s out there, expertise that’s out there, drawing out the relevant parts of all of that, to allow people and society to be more deliberate and successful about how they’re making decisions about investing in technology.”

As with other areas such as epidemiology, where the power of analytical forecasting may be more widely appreciated, she says, “in other areas of technology as well, there’s a lot we can do to anticipate where things are going, how technology is evolving at the global or at the national scale … There are these macro-level trends that you can steer in certain directions, that we actually have more agency over as a society than we might recognize.”

The study included researchers in Massachusetts, Wisconsin, Colorado, Maryland, Maine, California, Austria, Norway, Mexico, Finland, Italy, the U.K., and the Netherlands. 

Governor Kathy Hochul today announced the completion of Alafia Phase 1, a $387 million mixed-use development that will create 576 affordable homes in the East New York neighborhood of Brooklyn. The project is the first phase of a six-phase plan to redevelop the former Brooklyn Developmental Center campus into more than 2,400 affordable homes and is part of the State’s Vital Brooklyn Initiative — a comprehensive community development program designed to address social, economic, and health disparities in Central Brooklyn. Under Governor Hochul’s leadership, New York State Homes and Community Renewal has created or preserved nearly 10,000 affordable homes throughout Brooklyn. Alafia Phase 1 continues this effort and complements Governor Hochul’s $25 billion five-year Housing Plan which is on track to create or preserve 100,000 affordable homes statewide.

“The Alafia development is a powerful example of how we can transform underutilized State-owned land to create vibrant, healthy communities,” Governor Hochul said. “By combining affordable housing, supportive services, and high-quality health care in one sustainable development, we are delivering the type of holistic investments that Central Brooklyn deserves. These 576 new homes reflect our commitment to advancing health equity, expanding housing opportunities, and building a stronger and more resilient Brooklyn for generations to come.”

Alafia Phase 1 was built on the site of the Brooklyn Developmental Center, a former State institution for individuals with disabilities. As part of the Vital Brooklyn Initiative, it integrates housing, health, and economic benefits for the surrounding community. The development expands access to preventative health care with a 15,000-square-foot One Brooklyn Health outpatient clinic providing primary and specialty care, blood-drawing and infusion services, an on-site laboratory, and a pharmacy. The clinic’s design and programming were shaped through extensive community engagement to ensure that services meet the specific needs of local residents.

The all-electric development incorporates a micro-grid, geothermal system for heating and cooling, rooftop solar, wastewater heat recovery systems, a green roof, urban farm, on-site composter, and Energy Star appliances. These features lower utility costs, reduce energy consumption, and improve indoor air quality. There is also 7,800 square-feet of retail space for small local businesses including a supermarket, enhancing the community’s economy and access to fresh food.

All apartments are available to households earning up to 80 percent of Area Median Income.

The development includes 132 supportive apartments reserved for eligible individuals with mental illness or individuals with developmental disabilities. On-site support services will be delivered by Services for the UnderServed and will include care coordination, daily living skills training, health and wellness coaching, employment support, and community-based mental health services.

The development also includes units that are accessible and equipped for people with mobility impairments, as well as hearing and visual impairments. 

The project is developed by L+M Development Partners, Services for the UnderServed, Apex Building Group, and RiseBoro.

State financing for Alafia Phase 1 includes $38.1 million in permanent tax-exempt bonds, Federal Low-Income Housing Tax Credits that will generate $117.8 million in equity from the private sector and $174.9 million in subsidy from New York State Homes and Community Renewal’s (HCR) New Construction Program and Community Investment Fund. The development also benefits from $946,000 in Clean Energy Initiative funding, a partnership between HCR and the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA). NYSERDA also provided over $850,000 in support for rooftop solar through the State’s NY-Sun initiative. The project is also expected to qualify for federal Solar and Geothermal Tax Credits that will generate $670,000 in equity. The New York State Office of Mental Health (OMH) is providing $430,000 in a Program Development Grant. Operational funding for the supportive units is funded through the New York State Office for People With Developmental Disabilities (OPWDD), as well as funded through the Empire State Supportive Housing Initiative and administered by OMH. The project’s site was owned by the Dormitory Authority of the State of New York and was acquired by the developers.

In 2018, Empire State Development, in partnership with New York State Homes and Community Renewal, issued a Request for Proposals to redevelop the Brooklyn Developmental Center campus in East New York into a modern, mixed-use wellness-oriented community. ESD facilitated the procurement process through its General Project Plan, ultimately selecting a development team consisting of Apex Building Company, L+M Development Partners, Services for the UnderServed, and RiseBoro Community Partnership. The master plan for the six-phase redevelopment was designed by Dattner Architects.

New York State Homes and Community Renewal Commissioner RuthAnne Visnauskas said, “The first phase of Alafia delivers on the promise of the Vital Brooklyn Initiative by bringing together affordable housing, supportive services, health care, and sustainability in one thoughtfully planned community. This development reflects years of engagement with local residents and a shared vision for a healthier, more equitable East New York. We are grateful to our partners at OMH, OPWDD, One Brooklyn Health, and the entire development team for their commitment to this transformative project.”

New York State Office of Mental Health Commissioner Dr. Ann Sullivan said, “This phase of the Alafia project is providing safe, affordable homes for individuals living with mental illness along with the supportive services designed to ensure that they live and thrive in their community. The completion of this project reflects Governor Hochul’s continued support for programs like the Empire State Supportive Housing Initiative, which are expanding supportive housing statewide.”

New York State Office for People With Developmental Disabilities Commissioner Willow Baer said, “The transformation we have been able to achieve at the former Brooklyn Developmental Center moves New York from a time of institutionalization to the freedoms of independent living that Alafia will provide. This is a hallmark of the progress made over the last fifty years to include New Yorkers with developmental disabilities as respected and valuable members of our communities. Thank you to Governor Hochul for continuing to create these opportunities for affordable and safe housing that allows people to live with dignity and purpose.”

NYSERDA President and CEO Doreen M. Harris said, “New York State is helping transform the way buildings are constructed by incentivizing the use of the latest energy efficiency and electrification technologies. NYSERDA is proud to support the all-electric Alafia Phase I affordable housing development, which provides a healthy, modern living experience for residents in Brooklyn while also contributing to the state’s equitable transition to a clean energy economy.”

Empire State Development President, CEO and Commissioner Hope Knight said, “Under Governor Hochul’s leadership, we’re proving that affordable housing developments can be catalysts for comprehensive community transformation. Alafia Phase 1 delivers 576 new homes alongside essential health services and sustainable features — the kind of holistic investment that strengthens neighborhoods and creates lasting opportunity. Empire State Development is proud to support this Vital Brooklyn Initiative project, which addresses long-standing disparities and builds a more equitable future for Central Brooklyn.”

Senator Kirsten Gillibrand said, “All New Yorkers deserve access to safe and secure housing, but for far too long, affordable housing options have been scarce across much of the city. The Alafia housing development creates much-needed new housing, health care, and supportive services in Brooklyn and will help strengthen the local community. I am proud to support this project, and I will continue pushing to bring federal dollars back home to New York to fund projects like this.”

House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries said “I am grateful to Governor Kathy Hochul for her commitment to addressing the affordability crisis that continues to ravage New Yorkers, while Donald Trump and House Republicans abdicate their duty to bring costs down. The creation of 576 affordable homes, healthcare facilities and access to healthy food in the Alafia Phase 1 development are a transformational investment in building a thriving East New York. I look forward to the completion of this project and its future stages to ensure more people can afford to remain in the greatest city in the world.”

State Senator Roxanne J. Persaud said, “The completion of Alafia Phase 1 is a great step forward for East New York and our entire community, delivering much-needed affordable homes, essential health services, and real economic opportunity where it’s needed most. Thank you to Governor Kathy Hochul and the partners who are invested in expanding access to quality housing, supporting community-driven solutions, and investing in the health and wellbeing of our residents.”

Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso said, “Alafia is an essential investment for East New York — affordable housing, quality healthcare, and opportunity all in one place. With the completion of phase 1 bringing accessible housing for people with disabilities and green energy to support low and affordable utility costs, Alafia strives to meet the needs of Brooklynites in a meaningful way. I am thankful to Governor Hochul for prioritizing a project that puts families first and to our community partners who build with the community in mind.”

New York City Councilmember Chris Banks said, “The completion of Alafia Phase 1 is a major victory for East New York and a powerful example of what development should look like when we put a community’s needs first. For decades, this site symbolized isolation and disinvestment — but today, it represents opportunity, health, and affordability for the families who call this neighborhood home. As Council Member for the 42nd District, I am proud to see a project that brings more than 570 affordable homes, a full-service healthcare clinic, supportive housing, and green, sustainable infrastructure directly into a community that has long been overlooked. This is the kind of investment our residents deserve. We deserve housing that is dignified, deeply affordable, environmentally responsible, and built with the understanding that stability and wellness go hand in hand. Alafia reflects our shared commitment to addressing the housing crisis, expanding access to preventative healthcare, and creating a stronger, healthier future for East New York. I look forward to continuing to work with the State, the development team, and — most importantly — our community, to ensure that the next phases of this project deliver the same level of care, innovation, and equity for the people of this district.”

Services for the UnderServed President and CEO Perry Perlmutter said, “Alafia represents a promise kept to provide New Yorkers not just with housing, but with opportunity, dignity, and a foundation for healthier lives. With the opening of Phase I, hundreds of individuals and families will have a safe, stable home built to the highest sustainability standards, and access to on-site healthcare and community amenities. This is what it means to build for the future.”

L+M Development Partners CEO Lisa Gomez said, “Today we celebrate the opening of the first phase of Alafia, a unique community that will serve as an example for how affordable homes should be built, with sustainability driving the design from the outset.

We are proud to see this vision come to life and become a home for those in the community that need it most, with an eye to improving health outcomes and keeping communities together. Thank you to Governor Hochul for her leadership and to our partners for getting this project over the finish line.”

Apex Building Group CEO Lee Brathwaite said, “Apex Building Group is proud to celebrate the ribbon cutting of Alafia’s first phase, a transformative investment in East New York Brooklyn’s future. We believe that high-quality, affordable housing and vibrant, healthy neighborhoods go hand in hand. Working side by side with all of our partners and community stakeholders, we’ve delivered affordable homes that promote a community of wellness while creating new opportunities for the families who live here today and for generations to come.”

RiseBoro Community Partnership CEO Kieran Harrington said, “At RiseBoro, we believe that a home is more than four walls — it is access to care, opportunity and community. Alafia embodies that vision. By integrating supportive services, health care, green space and sustainable design, this project offers residents the stability they deserve and creates the conditions for a thriving community. We’re proud to join our partners in bringing this transformative model to uplift East New York’s families today and for generations to come.”

One Brooklyn Health CEO Sandra Scott, MD said, “This partnership with Alafia exemplifies how health, housing, and economic opportunity can come together to build stronger, healthier communities. It’s a model for how we can reimagine public investment to create lasting change in the lives of New Yorkers.”

Governor Hochul’s Housing Agenda

Governor Hochul is dedicated to addressing New York’s housing crisis and making the State more affordable and more livable for all New Yorkers. As part of the FY25 Enacted Budget, the Governor secured a landmark agreement to increase New York’s housing supply through new tax incentives, capital funding, and new protections for renters and homeowners. Building on this commitment, the FY26 Enacted Budget includes more than $1.5 billion in new State funding for housing, a Housing Access Voucher pilot program, and new policies to improve affordability for tenants and homebuyers. These measures complement the Governor’s five-year, $25 billion Housing Plan, included in the FY23 Enacted Budget, to create or preserve 100,000 affordable homes statewide, including 10,000 with support services for vulnerable populations, plus the electrification of an additional 50,000 homes. Nearly 70,000 have been created or preserved to date.

The FY25 and FY26 Enacted Budgets also strengthened the Governor’s Pro-Housing Community Program — which allows certified localities exclusive access to up to $750 million in discretionary State funding. Currently, more than 380 communities have received Pro-Housing certification, including New York City.