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(Bloomberg) — Asian shares fluctuated with investors staying on the sidelines in the leadup to US jobs report, awaiting fresh data after recent prints signaled President Donald Trump’s trade war was hurting the US economy.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index swung between gains and losses after Trump’s announcement of a trade deal with Vietnam had helped the S&P 500 close at another record high Wednesday. The dollar was steady Thursday, hovering around three-year lows. Equity-index futures for the US and Europe were flat. Gold dipped for the first time in four days.

Treasuries inched up Thursday. Yields rose in the prior session following heavy selling in the UK, where concerns about Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves’ future reignited questions over the nation’s fiscal position. In Japan, 10-year bonds declined ahead of a closely watched auction of 30-year sovereign notes at 12:35 p.m. in Tokyo.

The cross-asset moves underscored cautious optimism as traders contend with pockets of uncertainty ahead of jobs data that will help identify the path ahead for interest rates. With stocks at a record high even after Trump ratcheted up trade tensions, investors are closely monitoring economic data before adding to their portfolios.

“Investors are generally adopting a cautious, wait-and-see approach before the jobs report to be announced later today,” said Tomo Kinoshita, global market strategist at Invesco Asset Management in Tokyo. A growing number of US indicators are pointing to a potential economic slowdown, he said.

On the Vietnam trade deal, Trump said that the Asian country had agreed to drop all levies on US imports. A 20% tariff will be placed on Vietnamese exports to the US, with a 40% levy on any goods deemed to be transshipped through the country. The deal risks provoking retaliatory steps from China, according to Bloomberg Economics.

News of the trade deal boosted Nike Inc. and some exporter stocks amid hopes the accord will avert a potential supply-chain catastrophe.  The country set its daily reference rate for the dong at a record low Thursday.

“Investors have become desensitized by Trump’s frequent erratic direction changes,” said Vey-Sern Ling, a managing director at Union Bancaire Privee. “So far most of these ‘deals’ don’t amount to much and the eventual implementation remains uncertain.”

Meanwhile, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said Reeves will stay on as Chancellor of the Exchequer, as he sought to draw a line under speculation about her future that sparked the bond selloff. 

Members of Starmer’s ruling Labour Party forced the government to scrap £5 billion ($6.8 billion) worth of cuts to welfare spending on Tuesday evening — making it even harder for Reeves to tame the government’s budget deficit. 

The pound was little changed against the dollar in Asian trading.

Like in the UK, investors have raised concerns in the US, where Trump’s signature economic legislation stalled in the House Wednesday afternoon as Republican fiscal conservatives delayed a key procedural vote. Trump later said on social media the House is ready to vote tonight on the tax bill.

In Japan, the auction of 30-year sovereign notes Thursday is shaping up as a barometer of policymakers’ success in quelling debt-market turmoil that pushed yields on the nation’s super-long bonds to record highs in May. While yields have stepped down from their peaks, markets remain wary, especially after the moves in the UK and the US overnight.

Back in the US, monthly nonfarm payroll data due later Thursday — a day earlier than usual due to a holiday —  will show slower hiring and the highest unemployment rate since 2021 as the Trump administration’s trade and immigration policy shifts start to leave an imprint.

Separate private payrolls data from ADP Research on Wednesday showed employment at US companies fell for the first time in over two years. Despite signs of a downshift, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has repeated the labor market remains solid. 

Following ADP Research’s private payrolls data, traders added to wagers on at least two rate reductions this year, with the first coming in September. If the upcoming jobs report shows further weakness, traders reckon the Fed could move up cuts.

Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

• S&P 500 futures were little changed as of 11:37 a.m. Tokyo time
• Japan’s Topix fell 0.3%
• Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.6%
• Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 1.1%
• The Shanghai Composite fell 0.1%
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures were little changed

Currencies

• The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
• The euro was little changed at $1.1800
• The Japanese yen was little changed at 143.67 per dollar
• The offshore yuan was little changed at 7.1603 per dollar

Cryptocurrencies

• Bitcoin fell 0.5% to $108,659.08
• Ether fell 1.2% to $2,560.03

Bonds

• The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 4.26%
• Japan’s 10-year yield advanced 1.5 basis points to 1.440%
• Australia’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 4.17%

Commodities

• West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.9% to $66.86 a barrel
• Spot gold fell 0.3% to $3,348.52 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

–With assistance from Winnie Hsu.

©2025 Bloomberg L.P.

The Quad Foreign Ministers meeting in Washington this week made one thing clear: the group wants to move from talk to action. That’s a big shift, and a necessary one. But if you look closely at what’s going on behind the scenes, it’s obvious that turning ambition into results won’t be easy.

Let’s start with comments from US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. He talked about moving beyond “ideas and concepts” and turning the Quad into a “vehicle for action.” That’s not just political theatre. It’s a recognition that the Quad, made up of the United States, Australia, India, and Japan, needs to prove it can actually do things, not just meet and talk. In today’s world, where geopolitical tensions are rising and alliances are being tested, outcomes matter more than ever.

One of the clearest signs of this new focus is the push to secure critical minerals. This isn’t just about economics, it’s about power. China currently dominates the production and processing of rare earths and other key minerals like lithium, nickel, and copper. That gives Beijing serious leverage, especially in trade talks with the United States. So, when the Quad says it wants to diversify supply chains, it’s not just trying to hedge against market risks – it’s trying to shift the balance of strategic influence.

There are already some early moves. Japan is investing in Australian mines and refining facilities. Australia has offered the United States preferential access to a planned critical minerals stockpile. But here’s the catch: the US hasn’t taken up that offer yet. That hesitation says a lot about the complicated web of bilateral negotiations that sit underneath the Quad’s big-picture goals.

And that brings us to the real challenge: the Quad might look united on the surface, but dig a little deeper and you’ll find some serious friction between the United States and its partners.

If each country is pulling in a slightly different direction, because of domestic politics, economic concerns, or old grievances, it’s going to be hard to deliver on the promises made in Washington.

Take Australia. There’s still tension over the Trump administration’s trade tariffs and pressure on defence spending. Australia’s offer of minerals access seems to have been ignored so far, and there’s growing anxiety over the AUKUS defence pact, which is currently under review.

India’s in a similar boat. It’s also been hit by tariffs, and while its External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar called the meeting “very productive,” he was quick to point out that no relationship is free of issues. India also pushed back on Trump’s claims about intervening in the India-Pakistan conflict – a reminder that trust isn’t automatic, even among allies.

Then there’s Japan. It’s facing the same tariff pressure and has been asked to ramp up defence spending. That’s already led to the postponement of a key ministerial meeting. Some analysts say the US-Japan relationship has lost momentum, bogged down by trade talks and public disagreements.

All of this matters because the Quad’s strength depends on its ability to act together. If each country is pulling in a slightly different direction, because of domestic politics, economic concerns, or old grievances, it’s going to be hard to deliver on the promises made in Washington.

That said, the Quad is clearly trying to broaden its scope. The group is now talking about economic development, tech, supply chains, and maritime security. They even brought in “30 or 40 companies” from member countries to explore private sector partnerships. That’s a smart move, governments can’t do this alone.

But let’s not forget the bigger picture. The world is still dealing with wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. China’s military rise and its claims on Taiwan are looming large. The Indo-Pacific is a strategic hotspot, and the Quad is trying to navigate it all while keeping its own house in order.

So yes, the Quad’s commitment to action is real. But the road ahead is messy. If the group can push through its internal tensions and deliver on things like critical minerals, it’ll prove that this alliance isn’t just a talking shop, it’s a force to be reckoned with. That’s a big “if.”