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By Britney Nguyen

Some analysts see ample opportunity now that the U.S. plans to allow chip sales to China again, but others worry about further geopolitical roadblocks

President Donald Trump, seen at the White House with Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang on April 30, said Monday that he will allow Nvidia to sell its H200 chips to some customers in China.

After months of twists and turns, Nvidia may be able to start selling its chips in China again, but the market is shrugging off the news.

Some analysts see billions of dollars’ worth of opportunity every quarter if all goes according to plan, but others on Wall Street are less certain about whether the company will be able to capture meaningful China business in a fraught geopolitical landscape.

Nvidia’s stock (NVDA) slipped 0.3% on Tuesday despite a social-media post from President Donald Trump on Monday afternoon in which he said he would allow shipments of the company’s H200 chip to China, provided that Nvidia gives the U.S. government a 25% cut of sales.

While China has its own budding chip companies, those might only be able to serve about 20% of the country’s total market for chips, while Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and other global chip makers would need to supply the remaining 80%, UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri wrote in a note to clients.

That means that upon receiving government approval, Nvidia “may return to shipping” between $5 billion and $10 billion of its chips per quarter, Arcuri said.

China was once a hot topic for Nvidia investors and a driver of meaningful stock moves. But Tuesday’s muted share-price action suggests to Arcuri that “many investors view this as a less important catalyst” than the debate over how Nvidia’s graphics processing units will fare as custom chips from rivals catch on.

Don’t miss: Nvidia’s stock drops on Google fears. Are investors missing the point?

TD Cowen analyst Joshua Buchalter said that while allowing H200 sales is “clearly a tailwind,” he is “skeptical” that investors will give much weight to China revenue for Nvidia after the back-and-forth decision-making by the Trump administration.

There’s also the concern that the Chinese government and local companies will not want to buy older generations of chips, Buchalter said.

The Financial Times reported on Tuesday that the Chinese government is looking to limit access to H200 chips as the country aims to build up a self-reliant chip industry.

Chinese regulators could require buyers to go through an approval process that includes submitting purchasing requests outlining why homegrown chips are not sufficient, the Financial Times reported, citing unnamed people familiar with the matter.

Read on: ‘China’s Nvidia’ shows that the global chip race is heating up as it basks in post-IPO glow

TD Cowen technology, media and telecommunications policy analyst Paul Gallant said that the H200 chips “may not be available to companies with Chinese [government] investments but will be available to other significant buyers.” Given that Trump said that he discussed the sales with Chinese President Xi Jinping, it could be that “both countries are on the same page regarding Chinese buyers of H200s,” Gallant said in a Monday note.

While he was surprised about the 25% U.S. government cut due to “real legal uncertainties around it,” Gallant said he sees Trump’s approval “as driven far more by geopolitical considerations,” since Nvidia and other U.S. tech companies make up much of global [artificial-intelligence] infrastructure. Therefore, he wrote, “we don’t view Nvidia’s new H200 licenses as at risk of withdrawal should the [government’s] 25% cut be deemed invalid at some future date.”

See more: Trump blesses China sales for Nvidia. Here’s how big the opportunity could be.

The H200 has been used by companies such as OpenAI and Meta Platforms for training advanced AI models and is a more advanced version of the reduced-capability H20 chips Nvidia designed to comply with existing export controls. However, the H200 is a generation behind the Blackwell chips that Nvidia is currently rolling out to customers and will be two generations behind the upcoming Rubin platform.

Read: Why the once-invincible Nvidia can’t save the AI trade

Nvidia said during its earning call in August that some of its China-based customers had received licenses to receive H20 shipments again but that it had not shipped any. The H20 and AMD’s MI308, which was also specially designed for China, were banned for sale to the country by the Trump administration in April. Trump later reversed the decision and said he wanted a 15% cut of the revenue for the U.S. government.

-Britney Nguyen

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  12-09-25 1934ET
Copyright (c) 2025 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

(Bloomberg) — Asian stocks crept higher following a sluggish session on Wall Street as investors awaited clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy path in its final interest-rate decision of the year.

Benchmark share indexes in Japan and South Korea both gained, while US equity futures were little changed after the S&P 500 closed almost flat Tuesday. The Treasury 10-year yield hovered at around 4.18% following an auction of the securities on Tuesday, while the dollar was mixed against its major peers.

Traders are anticipating a third consecutive Fed rate cut Wednesday, while the focus will be on the central bank’s latest dot plot, economic projections and comments from Chair Jerome Powell. Volatility around the decision has been among the defining characteristics of equity trading in the past six weeks, superseding concern about a potential AI bubble and the impact of President Donald Trump’s trade policies.

Money markets are pricing around two Fed cuts in 2026 after a likely quarter-point reduction on Wednesday, a retreat from more optimistic forecasts in recent weeks.

“It’s not too much of an exaggeration to say that the rate cut is actually the least important part of this meeting,” said Tom Essaye, the founder of The Sevens Report. The market “cares much more that the Fed signals it will continue to cut rates and does not signal a pause in the rate-cut cycle,” he said.

Treasury yields climbed from earlier lows Tuesday after data showed October US job openings increased to the highest level in five months. The Fed’s two previous cuts this year were intended to address weakening employment conditions, including a rise in the unemployment rate to nearly 4.5%.

Kevin Hassett, the frontrunner in Trump’s search to replace Powell, said on Tuesday that he sees plenty of room to substantially lower rates, even more than a quarter-point cut.

“If the Fed is too hawkish, we expect the White House to soon announce Powell’s replacement,” said Fundstrat’s Tom Lee. That would be a “market clearing event” in his view.

In Asia, market watchers will be focusing on the yen after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said the central bank is getting closer to attaining its inflation target, adding to signals that the BOJ may raise its interest rate at a policy meeting next week.

The yen strengthened a touch as Ueda’s comments were streamed, briefly dipping below the 156 mark against the dollar.

Globally, government debt markets have been under pressure as central bankers signal that their easing cycles are coming to an end. On Tuesday, Australia’s Michele Bullock declared her country’s easing phase over, following comments from the European Central Bank’s Isabel Schnabel that she’s comfortable with the next move being higher.

“Given all the tension in global bond markets at the moment, the meeting of the Fed could potentially add fuel to the fire,” said Vincent Juvyns, chief investment strategist at ING in Brussels. “Investors will also be watching very closely the results of Oracle and Broadcom. There’s a lot at stake this week.”

In commodities, silver topped $60 an ounce on Tuesday for the first time on continued supply tightness. Gold also climbed.

Corporate News:

SpaceX is moving ahead with plans for an initial public offering that would seek to raise significantly more than $30 billion, people familiar with the matter said, in a transaction that would make it the biggest listing of all time. JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Marianne Lake said the bank anticipates spending $105 billion next year, an outlook that surpasses analyst estimates and sent shares tumbling. Major investors in First Brands Group have offloaded stakes in the bankrupt auto supplier’s debt in recent days, causing the value of its most senior loan to collapse and prompting it to pull forward a lender call to calm nerves. Microsoft Corp. pledged to invest $17.5 billion in artificial intelligence and cloud computing in India over four years, targeting the world’s most populous nation to help fuel its growth. Indian food delivery major Swiggy Ltd. on Tuesday launched a new share offering for institutional investors to raise up to 100 billion rupees ($1.1 billion), just a year after its market debut. Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

S&P 500 futures were little changed as of 9:40 a.m. Tokyo time Hang Seng futures fell 0.2% Nikkei 225 futures (OSE) rose 0.2% Japan’s Topix rose 0.6% Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was little changed Euro Stoxx 50 futures fell 0.3% Currencies

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed The euro was unchanged at $1.1627 The Japanese yen was little changed at 156.84 per dollar The offshore yuan was little changed at 7.0622 per dollar Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin fell 0.2% to $92,505.1 Ether rose 0.4% to $3,315.94 Bonds

The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.18% Japan’s 10-year yield was unchanged at 1.960% Australia’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 4.79% Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.2% to $58.39 a barrel Spot gold was little changed This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

©2025 Bloomberg L.P.

Dec 9 (Reuters) – The U.S. Food and Drug Administration said on Tuesday it had approved the first gene therapy for a rare and life-threatening immune disorder.

The therapy, Waskyra, was approved for Wiskott-Aldrich syndrome (WAS), which weakens the immune system, making patients prone to frequent infections, easy bleeding and bruising, and skin problems such as eczema.

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Waskyra, also known as etuvetidigene autotemcel, is designed for patients aged 6 months and older and adults with a mutation in the WAS gene.

The approval was granted to Italian non-profit Fondazione Telethon ETS.

It uses the patient’s own blood stem cells, which are genetically modified to include functional copies of the WAS gene, the FDA said.

The approval was based on two open-label studies and an expanded access program totaling 27 patients in which the therapy helped reduce the rate of severe infections by 93% in the first six to 18 months, and moderate and severe bleeding by 60% in the first 12 months after treatment, the agency said.

The most common side effects associated with Waskyra include rash, respiratory tract infection, vomiting, and diarrhea.

“The FDA continues to exercise flexibility in the regulatory approach for rare diseases by considering all available data sources, including, as appropriate, data from expanded access programs,” said FDA chief medical and scientific officer Vinay Prasad.

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