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Spotify Technology (SPOT) just kicked off its 2025 Wrapped campaign, turning year end listening habits into a global event that now includes real time social features like Wrapped Party and offline pop up experiences.

See our latest analysis for Spotify Technology.

All of this lands while investors are processing bigger shifts, from Spotify’s push into video and AI driven efficiency to Daniel Ek’s planned move to executive chairman. The 23.4% year to date share price return and three year total shareholder return of 622.7% suggest longer term momentum remains intact despite a softer recent patch.

If Spotify’s Wrapped has you thinking about what else is shaping digital media, it could be a good time to scan other high growth tech and AI stocks that are gaining traction.

With revenue and profits inflecting higher, a lower than industry P E multiple, and a double digit discount to analyst targets, is Spotify still misunderstood by the market or are investors already paying up for years of future growth?

According to MichaelP, the narrative fair value for Spotify sits well above the last close, framing today’s price as a potential long term entry point.

The market’s obsession with short term results over long term results is what led many investors to misunderstand Amazon, Netflix and many others in their early days, and the same is true with Spotify. You’d hear investors say: “Yeah, but you aren’t profitable?”. Those companies were playing the long game while those investors who only looked a few quarters out missed the boat of companies that had great qualitative metrics that weren’t yet evident in traditional quantitative financial metrics.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how this story gets to a much higher valuation from here? The secret mix: rapid earnings expansion, fuller margins, and a punchy future multiple. Want the full blueprint?

Result: Fair Value of $703.12 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

However, sustained underperformance in ads or rivals chipping away at Spotify’s market share could delay margin expansion and challenge today’s undervaluation thesis.

Find out about the key risks to this Spotify Technology narrative.

Step away from narrative fair value and the current earnings multiple tells a tougher story. Spotify trades at about 71 times earnings, roughly triple the US Entertainment sector at 22 times and more than double its own fair ratio of 34.7 times. This implies far less margin for error if growth slows or sentiment turns.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

If you see the numbers differently or want to stress test your own thesis, you can build a personalized Spotify story in just minutes: Do it your way.

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Spotify Technology.

Before you log off, you could turn this momentum into action by scanning fresh stock ideas on Simply Wall Street’s Screener so you are not sidelined on the next opportunity.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include SPOT.

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