In 2025, China’s energy and emission trends moved closer to the pathways aligned with the goals of the Paris Agreement to limit global temperature rise: its total CO₂ emissions are projected to stay flat, and the power and transport sectors are set to see their emissions fall year-on-year. Clean energy growth is likely to make new records and grid energy storage has taken off. The EV breakthrough has accelerated, delivering a major reduction in transportation sector emissions.
However, despite coal consumption and related emissions being approximately unchanged this year, the country will miss important energy and emissions targets laid out in its current development plan, the 14th Five-Year Plan (FYP), which runs from 2021 to 2025. Specifically, the country will not achieve the target of reducing carbon emissions per unit of GDP, nor the pledges to “strictly control” coal consumption growth and new coal-fired power plants. The country’s determination to meet its 2030 climate targets is unclear, with the commitment to gradually reduce coal consumption in 2026–30, in particular, omitted in the new Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and the Central Committee’s recommendations for the next FYP. The policy environment and target-setting for the next few years are concerning, raising the risk of an emission rebound after staying stable for two years.
Figure 1 — China’s annual change in CO₂ emissions compared to energy transition pathways.
Earlier this year, China released new climate commitments for 2035 under the Paris Agreement, the first update to its internationally pledged targets since 2021. The new NDC includes the country’s first absolute emission reduction target and the first emission target covering all greenhouse gases (GHG) and sectors. However, the level of ambition falls well short of what China needs to do to enable the world to meet the goals of the Paris agreement. China intends to reduce its GHG emissions from an undefined ‘peak level’ instead of a specific year in the past, which allows emissions to still grow in the near term.
On balance, China’s clean energy boom has a momentum of its own and has gained high economic significance both nationally and on the provincial level, which makes it more likely that the boom will continue. It’s clear that after the impressive growth of the clean energy sectors, China has the capability to keep emissions falling and start making progress towards its carbon neutrality target.
