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LAUNCESTON, Australia, Dec 4 (Reuters) – Thermal coal imports by Asia’s heavyweights China and India ticked higher in November, but the accompanying rise in prices may cap further gains in volumes.

China, the world’s biggest coal importer, saw arrivals of 30.96 million metric tons in November, up from 29.18 million in October, according to data compiled by analysts DBX Commodities.

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While November represented a third straight monthly gain for China’s imports, it’s worth noting that arrivals are still substantially below what they were last year, with November 2024 imports of the power-station fuel assessed at 38.19 million tons.

India, the second-biggest coal buyer, saw thermal coal imports of 13.01 million tons in November, up from 12.38 million in October and also slightly above the 12.24 million in November last year, according to DBX data.

The increase in imports by both China and India came after prices for the main seaborne thermal coal grades dropped to four-year lows in June.

Australian coal with an energy content of 5,500 kilocalories per kilogram (kcal/kg) fell to $65.72 a ton in the week to June 6, the weakest since May 2021, according to data from price reporting agency Argus.

The grade, which is popular with Chinese buyers, then traded sideways until August when it started to climb as Chinese buying interest picked up.

This helped drive the price to a one-year high of $86.96 a ton by the week ended November 21, but it has since slipped to end at $84.60 last week.

The import price largely mirrors movements in China’s domestic prices, where a rally from mid-June has recently stalled.

The price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was assessed by consultants SteelHome at 810 yuan ($114.73) a ton on Wednesday, down from a one-year high of 835 yuan a ton on November 26, but still some 33% above the four-year low of 610 yuan a ton in mid-June.

China’s domestic coal output has been constrained in recent months as part of Beijing’s “anti-involution” campaign aimed at combating overcapacity in key industries.

China’s output of all grades of coal was 406.75 million tons in October, down 2.3% from the same month in 2024 and also down from 411.51 million tons in September, according to official data released on November 14.

CHINA STOCKPILES

With China bracing for record electricity demand this winter, it’s likely that coal power plants will have to burn more fuel, which in turn suggests that imports may remain resilient.

However, the state planning agency said on November 27 that there were 230 million tons of coal in stockpiles, sufficient for 35 days’ consumption, a figure that suggests higher imports may not be required.

China’s thermal coal imports for December are estimated at 31.33 million tons by DBX, which is up slightly from November but still down from the 35.03 million tons from December last year.

India’s thermal coal imports tend to peak in summer, with a smaller lift for winter.

This winter may see lower demand for imports as coal-fired electricity generation slips amid lower industrial demand and higher renewable energy output.

India’s imports of thermal coal are forecast by DBX to decline in December to 12.15 million tons from November’s 13.01 million.

Higher prices are likely to be weighing on demand, with 4,200 kcal/kg Indonesian coal ending at $48.75 a ton in the week to November 28, down from a seven-month high of $49.19, but still some 20% above the four-year low of $40.45 hit in early July.

The views expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.

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