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Trends

Janet Berry-Johnson, CPA

Leaders are boosting traditional financial forecasts by using workforce data as an early indicator of business performance. Combined with AI, HR insights on engagement, turnover and skills help spot trends sooner, enabling faster, more accurate decisions and better margin management.

What business leader doesn’t want clearer foresight and better visibility into next quarter’s revenue, upcoming cost pressures and the health of their margins? Yet most forecasting models still rely almost entirely on financial data, even though financials tend to tell the story last.

The earliest signs of change, good or bad, nearly always appear in HR data analytics. And workforce trends may surface weeks or months before they show up on a balance sheet or income statement.

That’s why forward-looking leaders are rethinking their approach. With clean people data supported by responsible artificial intelligence (AI), organizations can turn early signals into reliable forecasts, spot risks sooner, plan resources more effectively and make decisions faster.

You don’t have to replace your existing financial forecasting model. Instead, power it with workforce insights you’ve been leaving untapped.

HR data analytics in motion

Financial outcomes tend to build slowly. When leaders learn to treat people data as “data in motion,” they discover workforce signals consistently move ahead of financial results.

For example, when employee engagement scores slip, production delays, quality issues and customer experience impacts often follow, creating avoidable revenue drag. Higher attrition drives recruitment costs, onboarding time and overtime to cover gaps, forecasting compressed margins in the next quarter. Slow time-to-fill or shortages in critical skills signal that teams may struggle to meet demand, limiting revenue potential or delaying projects.

None of these insights requires complex analytics. They simply require paying attention to how fast certain signals are changing and in which direction. When viewed this way, people data enhances forecasting. Instead of guessing where performance is headed, you observe it in real time through the people who drive it and maximize the value of your investments.

“You need to align your HR data analytics efforts to what’s important to the organization and the HR strategy that you have in place,” said Kathy Gawronski, VP Value Engineering at WorkForce Software – an ADP Company.

“First, it’s important to get support for driving more value out of your HR system and using available data to drive that value. It won’t be that difficult to get support to do that, because it’s getting more value out of what you’ve already invested in,” said Gawronski. “Begin small and leverage the value of initial studies to establish additional support and necessary investments. Be sure to communicate the impact to the bottom line of the initial insights. Lather, rinse, repeat.”

AI as the accelerator

High-quality people data creates early visibility, but responsible AI turns that visibility into sharper, faster and more reliable forecasting. Instead of manually stitching together spreadsheets, leaders can use AI to reduce reporting errors, uncover patterns earlier and model scenarios in seconds.

The benefits are practical and immediate:

• Fewer reporting mistakes: AI reduces manual entry and reconciliation work, helping eliminate the small but costly inaccuracies that distort forecasts.
• Faster scenario modeling: Leaders can test questions like, “What if attrition rises 35%?” or “How would a slowdown in hiring velocity affect project capacity?” without days of analysis.
• Improved budgeting accuracy: By detecting small shifts in workforce behavior early, AI gives HR and finance teams more time to adjust headcount plans, training investments and labor budgets.

According to McKinsey & Company, organizations using AI-driven forecasting saw forecasting errors drop 20% to 50% compared with traditional spreadsheet methods.

Forecast in action

Consider a regional business that began tracking absenteeism in conjunction with team performance. Initially, the metrics appeared unrelated. But eventually leaders noticed a pattern: when absenteeism crept up, productivity dipped shortly afterward, often before anyone flagged a problem.

By linking these signals, the company built a simple model that projected how rising absenteeism would affect output and labor costs. When the data began trending upward for one quarter, the model forecasted a margin decline nearly two months earlier than traditional financial reports would have. Armed with that insight, leaders acted quickly. They adjusted staffing plans, shifted workloads, and tightened scheduling practices, avoiding the overtime expenses that would have eroded margins.

This is the power of forecasting through people data. Even a basic connection between workforce behavior and financial outcomes can reveal issues earlier, strengthen planning and prevent cost overruns before they occur.

Quick start framework

You don’t need a full analytics function or complex modeling to begin forecasting with workforce insights. A simple, structured approach can help HR and business leaders build confidence, improve accuracy and demonstrate value quickly. But you do need technology that’s up to the task; a platform that can flex and expand with your needs and has AI capabilities built in. And it’s essential that you evaluate and address any shortfalls in the quality of your data. Clean and accurate data is essential to the success and output of everything that follows.

Step 1: Clean existing workforce data and link it to business goals

Data quality is critical. Start by validating what you already have, such as turnover, time-to-fill, engagement scores, training hours or skills inventories. The goal is consistency. Tie each data point back to a business question, such as “How does turnover affect margin?” or “How do skills gaps impact project delivery?”

Step 2: Partner with finance to define key forecasting inputs

HR shouldn’t forecast in a vacuum. Collaborate with finance to identify which workforce signals meaningfully impact revenue, cost or capacity. Agree on shared definitions, data sources and the thresholds that should trigger a conversation.

Step 3: Start small: one metric, one model or one reporting cycle

Pick a single leading indicator, such as voluntary turnover. Build a simple predictive workflow around it and track how that metric moves and signals change. This keeps experimentation manageable and shows value early.

Step 4: Expand as patterns emerge

Once you see reliable relationships between people data and financial results, scale gradually. Add new metrics, automate reporting, incorporate AI and refine your models. Each added layer improves accuracy and strengthens long-term planning.

See the road ahead with workforce intelligence

Forecasting through people data transforms traditional HR metrics into true leading indicators of business performance. When leaders understand how shifts in engagement, turnover, skills and hiring velocity shape operational capacity and financial outcomes, they gain a clearer view of what’s coming next.

With an integrated perspective across workforce, payroll and financial data, ADP empowers leaders to make smarter, more confident forecasting decisions.

Learn how ADP helps businesses connect people analytics with profit prediction.

Donald Trump quietly pardoned on Tuesday a sports and entertainment executive, Tim Leiweke, who was indicted by the president’s own justice department this year.

Leiweke, who co-founded Oak View Group, was indicted in July for what federal prosecutors alleged was his role in “orchestrating a conspiracy to rig the bidding process for an arena at a public university in Austin, Texas”.

Leiweke had pleaded not guilty to charges of conspiracy to restrict trade and was due to stand trial next year.

According to a copy of the pardon posted on a justice department website on Wednesday, Trump signed “a full and unconditional pardon” for Leiweke on Tuesday.

The office of the pardon attorney posted the pardon on its website on Wednesday, the fifth Trump granted in the past week to powerful people, with no explanation as to why he had terminated a corruption case brought by prosecutors who work for him.

“As outlined in the indictment, the Defendant rigged a bidding process to benefit his own company and deprived a public university and taxpayers of the benefits of competitive bidding,” assistant attorney general Abigail Slater of the justice department’s antitrust division said in July. “The Antitrust Division and its law enforcement partners will continue to hold executives who cheat to avoid competition accountable.”

“Unfair business practices, like those employed here, make it very difficult for the American people to pursue prosperity like our founders intended,” Justin Simmons, the US attorney for the western district of Texas said in July. Simmons was appointed interim US attorney for that office by Trump’s attorney general, Pam Bondi, in June.

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“I do not have the words to adequately convey my profound gratitude to President Trump,” Leiweke said in a statement to Sports Business Journal on Wednesday. “This has been a long and difficult journey for my wife, my daughter, and me. The President has given us a new lease on life with which we will be grateful and good stewards.”

Adidas has fended off an appeal from shareholders who accused it of hiding misconduct by rapper-entrepreneur Kanye West – otherwise known as Ye – before their partnership broke down in 2022.

A San Francisco court said the sportswear giant did not mislead investors, who claimed they had lost money after Adidas shares plunged when it cut ties with West.

The Yeezy tie-up with West had been one of Adidas’ most successful partnerships, but its collapse after a spate of anti-Semitic comments by the rapper cost the brand hundreds of millions of dollars.

The BBC has contacted Adidas for comment but could not reach the firm leading the class action or West’s team.

West, who is not party to the lawsuit, was widely criticised after repeatedly making antisemitic remarks and promoting conspiracy theories.

His Yeezy brand collaboration with Adidas was put under review after he showed a “White Lives Matter” T-shirt design at a fashion show in 2022. Shortly after, he posted anti-Semitic comments online, which prompted Adidas to pull his products from sale.

West’s behaviour also prompted several companies, including Gap and JP Morgan, to sever ties with the rapper.

Court documents filed on Wednesday show that HLSA-ILA Funds, the firm representing investors, alleged that Adidas continued its partnership with West despite knowing about his controversial conduct for years.

The filing claims Adidas “internally grappled” with West’s behaviour but misled shareholders by failing to disclose the risk in its reports.

The 9th US Circuit Court of Appeals in San Francisco ultimately sided with Adidas.

The court said on Wednesday that a reasonable investor would know that a partnership with a celebrity like West could come with “inherent risks relating to improper behaviour”.

A district court had previously dismissed HLSA-ILA’s case, and the firm later appealed.

The collapse of Adidas’ partnership with West caused the German firm’s share price to tank in 2023.

Yeezy, luxury sneakers designed by West, had been a particularly lucrative line of products for Adidas, generating around €1.5bn (£870m; $1.17bn) in sales in 2021.

The partnership breakdown left Adidas with more than €1bn worth of Yeezy shoes sitting in storage. In 2023, the brand announced that it would sell those products and donate some of the proceeds to charities who worked on combating hate.

Introduction

The Soybean Innovation Lab (SIL) introduces readers to the question whether Sub Saharan Africa (SSA) presents a new market opportunity for US soybean growers. This article wraps up a three-part series on the topic of Africa as a potential export market for US soybeans. The African market presents a very complex landscape. While it is large, diverse, and growing rapidly, there exists great uncertainty, significant business risks, and demand for soybean and associated products are just beginning to emerge.

This first article in the series focused on the larger food and oil trends dominating the African continent (see farmdoc daily from November 13, 2025).  The second article delved into the import flows of soybean, oil, and meal into Africa (see farmdoc daily from November 19, 2025).    Today’s third and final article discusses four specific country examples – Egypt, Ghana, Nigeria, and Tanzania – touching on their imports of soy and soy products, logistics infrastructure, and existing policies on genetically modified soybean imports. We also include a list of additional readings on the subject of food and agricultural trade and Africa.

Import Markets for Soybeans, Meal, and Oil

Egypt

Since 2020 soybean import demand in Egypt has been rising at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.5% and now amounts to over 172 million bushels a year (Table 1). Import growth will continue to be driven by an influx of foreign currency and growing domestic demand for soy ingredients and soy-based products. U.S. soybeans accounted for almost 70% of Egypt’s total soybean imports over the past five years and that is likely to continue due to the freight advantage over South America.

Soybean oil and meal import demand are relatively minimal and reflect Egypt’s commitment to domestic crush. Local processors supply the Egyptian market with approximately 850,000 metric tons of soybean oil and 3.7mmt of soybean meal. Soybean oil imports amount to 8% of palm oil imports, which are 1,255,925 metric tons, and 47% larger than domestic soy oil output.

Egypt charges no import tariffs on raw oilseeds like soybeans, sunflower seed, and palm kernel, but there are 5% tariffs on oilseed meal and cake, and 2% tariffs on soybean and sunflower seed oil. There are no tariffs on crude cottonseed and palm oil (Morgan, 2025). Egypt’s major ports, Alexandria (including El Dekheila), Damietta, and the ports within the Suez Canal Economic Zone, are critical for handling the nation’s grain and dry bulk imports.

Nigeria

Domestic consumption of soybeans in Nigeria continues to increase. Nigeria’s crush capacity has expanded to 875,000 metric tonnes annually, about 19% of Egypt’s capacity, and is expected to continue to grow. With a strong demand for animal feed, and edible oils, Nigeria’s demand for soybeans is estimated to be over 99 million bushels annually, or 57% of Egyptian soybean imports, significantly outstripping domestic crush capacity.  A soybean oversupply situation of 46% with respect to domestic crush has Nigeria currently importing almost no raw soybeans or soybean meal, and importing 50,000 mt or 22% of its domestic soybean oil needs (Bielecki, 2024a).  Soybean oil imports amount to 4% of palm oil imports, which are approximately 1.1 mmt.

Nigeria’s imports are largely limited by the availability of hard currency, which is strictly controlled by the government.  Generally, Nigeria imposes high tariffs and other trade restrictions on many oilseed products, primarily to protect local producers and manage foreign exchange reserves. The specific tariffs and import eligibility have been more flexible with raw, rather than processed, oilseed imports, particularly to address food shortages and supply chain issues.

Nigeria has several major seaports that handle grain and dry bulk commodities, with the busiest terminals located in Lagos. However, port congestion, inefficient operations, and aging infrastructure have historically presented challenges, though concessioning of terminals and new ports like Lekki aim to improve efficiency.

Ghana

Ghana imports almost no raw soybean and very little soybean oil (~5,000 mt). Meal imports at 230,000 mt are equivalent to 10.8 million bushels of grain. Soybean oil imports amount to only 4% of Ghana’s palm oil imports, which total 132,000 mt, or almost 27 million bushels of soybean grain equivalent.

According to a May 2023 USDA report (Taylor, 2023), Ghana’s import tariff regime for soybeans is described as unfavorable and this has kept imports low.  An import VAT duty is applied to the Cost Insurance Freight (CIF) value, and other taxes and levies are then calculated based on the CIF value plus the import duty, creating a cumulative rate that can exceed 23% in many cases.  Ghana’s primary commercial ports are Tema and Takoradi. Recent upgrades have increased capacity at both ports for various cargo types.

Tanzania

Tanzania has limited oilseed processing facilities, most of which is crushing local sunflower production. Domestic production of oilseed cannot meet domestic demand, therefore the country has historically relied on imports from neighboring countries like Zambia and Malawi, although these can be subject to supply chain disruptions due to poor roads (Koster, 2025).

The Tanzania feed market annually needs approximately 135,000 mt of soybean meal, or 173,000 mt of grain equivalent, primarily for poultry. The largest imported supplies come from Zambia, followed by India and Malawi (Koster, 2025). With Tanzania ports being located on the eastern coast of Africa, the country is at a freight disadvantage for trade with the U.S.

Tanzania’s annual demand for edible oils is around 570,000 mt, while the domestic processors supply only 31% of demand or 180,000 mt, leading to a substantial import dependency (Koster, 2025).  Most of the domestic oil production comes in the form of sunflower oil as the nation only produces 1.9 million bushels of soybean or 1.2% of domestic edible oil demand. Imported oil fills the gap and comprises no soy and 287,000 mt of palm oil or about 50% of national annual demand for edible oil.

Tanzania applies a 10% customs duty on crude soybean oil, which was recently introduced to align with duties on other crude oils like sunflower and cotton seed. Tanzania’s primary port for handling grain and dry bulk cargo is the Port of Dar es Salaam, which manages about 95% of the country’s international trade.

The State of GM Regulations across Four Selected Countries in Africa

Although GM (genetically modified) crops were initially regarded as a technological blessing for reducing food insecurity, many African countries have created regulatory barriers, either to their importation or to their domestic production. And these regulations in Africa “vary widely in their approaches, ranging from cautious approval to outright prohibitions” (Mmbando, 2024).  “Countries like Kenya have embraced GMOs for food security, while others, such as Tanzania and Uganda, remain cautious and in opposition. The regulatory challenges, coupled with infrastructural and economic barriers, continue to hinder widespread adoption in the region” (Escasura, 2025).

Egypt allows the importation of 100% of biotech crops except for seeds used for cultivation (Table 2). Currently, Egypt has strict rules against planting genetically modified (GMO) soybeans, but allows their importation for animal feed, provided they are approved for consumption in the country of origin. The country has been considering an end to its ban on growing GMOs due to factors like grain prices, but a lack of a comprehensive biosafety law and public opinion have slowed progress.

Ghana is open to GM imports whether that be grain or seed. Ghana’s parliament in 2011 passed legislation to allow the use of GMO technology in agriculture. With their open stance toward biotech crops, the country has increased its production capabilities. Ghana’s National Biosafety Authority (NBA) recently approved the commercialization of 14 new genetically modified products comprising eight maize events and 6 soybean events (Taylor and Beillard, 2024).

Nigeria places more restrictions on grain imports compared with Egypt and Ghana. It permits the import of biotech crops for Biotechnology and Other New Production Technologies Annual poultry feed, and seeds for research purposes. An approved NBMA-issued biotech seed import permit is required and needs to be submitted 270 days in advance.  There are currently five biotech crops in different developmental stages, including rice, cassava, sorghum, and potato.  A Bt corn product  called Tela Maize has been registered and commercially released in Nigeria (see https://sciencenigeria.com/tela-maize-transforming-lives-of-nigerian-farmers/ ).

Tanzania maintains the most stringent GM regulations of the four where no GM products may be imported or commercialized in the country. While the country allows limited, contained research and has the legal framework for GMO approval, the stringent liability requirements for any potential harms have prevented the commercial release of any GM agricultural products.