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The EU has unveiled a €3bn (£2.63bn) strategy to reduce its dependency on China for critical raw materials amid a global scramble triggered by Beijing’s “weaponisation” of supplies of everything from chips to rare earths.
The ReSourceEU programme will seek to de-risk and diversify the bloc’s supply chains for key commodities with a funding initiative to support 25-30 strategic projects in the sector.
The EU said the strategy was designed to reduce the impact of “market shocks” such as the recent disruption to the car industry caused by the recent, now lifted, ban on exports of chips by China in response to the Dutch government taking control of the Chinese-owned chip firm Nexperia.
Senior EU officials said that “while the direction is clear” there was also a need to “accelerate the process” as China continued to “weaponise” its hold on raw materials for “geopolitical purposes”.
These projects cover rare earths – a group of 17 heavy metals that are actually abundant but difficult and costly to extract – as well as the elements gallium, germanium, cobalt and lithium, used in batteries for electric vehicles.
The plan centres on creating a European hub for critical materials that would pool company orders and build joint stockpiles for key projects including urgent defence programmes, an effort driven by the EU industry commissioner, Stéphane Séjourné
The discussion comes as the French president, Emmanuel Macron, visits China, which has threatened to expand its controls on the exports of rare earths, including magnets used in everything from car and fridge doors to MRI scanners.
As part of the new strategy, the EU will redouble efforts to recycle aluminium with fresh restrictions on scrap exports in 2026 of the metal and of scrap copper if necessary.
It will also build a raw materials trading platform that can “aggregate demand” and procurement across the bloc and launch a stockpiling pilot in early 2026.
Brussels has long complained that no matter how many defence measures it puts in place to protect against dependency on China, industry suppliers still buy from the country because it is cheaper than Chile, Brazil, Australia and Canada.
The EU will also look at financial supports to bridge the cost of buying from pricier alternative locations.
Demand for lithium is expected to increase nearly 60-fold by 2050. More than 78% of the EU’s lithium needs in 2020 came from Chile. Photograph: Luis Bustamante/The Guardian
The strategy is designed to reboot the 2024 Critical Raw Materials Act that set targets for supplies for 2030 including capacity to extract 10% of the bloc’s needs locally, process 40%, and recycle 25%.
Illustrating the scale of the reliance on Beijing, EU officials revealed that the bloc buys about 20,000 tonnes of permanent magnets a year, used in everything from car and fridge doors to MRI machines.
Of that “17,000 to 18,000” tonnes come from China, 1,000 are produced in the EU with the remainder from other countries.
Up to €3bn in funding will be mobilised within the next 12 months with €2bn a year made available by the European Investment Bank in the form of loans, venture debt and private debt plus financing such as loans already issued to a Finnish lithium mine project Keliber.
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This dwarves the £50m announced last month by Keir Starmer for a similar initiative in the UK.
Concerns that Europe could fall behind the US, Japan, Canada and Australia are widespread in industry, with large American car companies already working with mining conglomerates to reduce reliance on Beijing.
Efforts by the US, the EU and the UK to reduce dependency on China for supplies took on a fresh urgency in October when China threatened to introduce sweeping controls on global exports of rare earths from December.
That threat was lifted as part of the tariff deal struck between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump in South Korea six weeks ago, but the reprieve only holds for 12 months, preserving China’s future leverage on supply chains.
The commission has previously estimated that the demand for rare earths and lithium alone is expected to increase five to 12 times and nearly 60 times, respectively, by 2050. In 2020, more than 98% of the EU’s rare earths imports came from China and 78% of its lithium needs were sourced from Chile.
ReSourceEU is part of a wider package being unveiled on Wednesday that the commission calls its economic security doctrine, intended to make European firms more self-sufficient.
Europe’s only lithium hydroxide factory, operated by AMG Lithium in Germany, cost £150m to build, and the company was already in the mining business.
Earlier this year, its chief executive, Stefan Scherer, said that the EU might as well “apply to be a province of China” so little was being done in practice to cut reliance. “Europe has to become independent of China, otherwise it’s just blah blah blah,” he said.
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Data source: Bloomberg L.P. Note: Data through November 26, 2025. All crack spreads are calculated against the Dated Brent crude oil spot price.
Global refinery margins for diesel have widened since late October and increased to their highest level all year, following refinery outages in Russia and in the Middle East and new sanctions on Russia’s crude oil, leading to limited refinery production and a decreased global diesel supply. The impact was most pronounced in the Atlantic Basin, contributing to higher prices at the Amsterdam, Rotterdam, Antwerp (ARA) shipping hub, a key benchmark for European prices, as well as at New York Harbor and the U.S. Gulf Coast. The higher global prices also affected prices in the United States because U.S. refiners can sell into both domestic and international markets.
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In-brief analysis
Dec 1, 2025
U.S. electricity customers experienced an average of 11 hours of electricity interruptions in 2024, or nearly twice as many as the annual average experienced in the decade before, according to our Electric Power Annual 2024 report. Major events such as Hurricanes Beryl, Helene, and Milton accounted for 80% of the hours without electricity in 2024.
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In-brief analysis
Nov 26, 2025
Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Note: Weekly data reflect U.S. average regular gasoline retail price for all formulations; real price is calculated using Consumer Price Index from BLS.
On the Monday before Thanksgiving, the U.S. retail price for regular-grade gasoline averaged $3.06 per gallon (gal), just 2 cents/gal higher than the same time last year. After adjusting for inflation, however, this year marks the lowest average gasoline price for the Monday before the Thanksgiving holiday weekend since 2020, when the pandemic disrupted gasoline demand and travel plans.
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Nov 24, 2025
Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Monthly Note: Coal represents less than 1% each year.
Although natural gas generation still provides more electricity than any other source in California, electricity generation from natural gas has decreased over the past several years while generation from solar has increased.
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Data source: Enverus Drillinginfo Note: For consistency, the various state pressure bases used to measure natural gas volumes have been converted to the federal pressure base of 14.73 pounds per square inch absolute (psia) and 60°F.
U.S. production of associated dissolved natural gas, also known as associated natural gas, increased by 6% last year, mirroring the growth in crude oil production from the Permian region. Associated natural gas production averaged 18.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2024, according to data from Enverus DrillingInfo.
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In-brief analysis
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In our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, we forecast crude oil produced from Alaska will reach 477,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2026, the most since 2018.
After decades of decline, we expect a 13% (55,000 b/d) increase in Alaska oil production, the largest annual increase since the 1980s.
The recent growth is attributable to two projects on Alaska’s North Slope:
The Nuna project, owned by ConocoPhillips, started production in December 2024 and is expected to produce 20,000 b/d at its peak. In August 2025, the project produced 7,000 b/d, offsetting existing production declines.
The Pikka Phase 1 project, jointly owned by Santos and Repsol, is expected to start production during the first quarter of 2026 and reach peak production of 80,000 b/d by mid-2026, nearly 20% of total Alaska oil production in 2025.
The wells from these new projects outperform most Alaskan wells. Based on recent production records from the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission, these wells produce about 480 barrels of oil equivalent per day (BOE/d) on average, whereas 78% of Alaskan wells produced less than 400 BOE/d in 2023.
Our latest forecast for 2026 production—an increase from our initial forecast—reflects Santos’s expectations for an accelerated ramp-up to peak production for the Pikka Phase 1 project and recent well tests demonstrating high productivity.
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In-brief analysis
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Data source: Baker Hughes Company Note: Excludes any miscellaneous rigs
The average number of active rigs per month that are drilling for oil and natural gas in the U.S. Lower 48 states has declined steadily over the past few years from a recent peak of 750 rigs in December 2022 to 517 rigs this October. The declining rig count reflects operators’ responses to declining crude oil and natural gas prices and improvements in drilling efficiencies.
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In-brief analysis
Nov 14, 2025
Working natural gas in storage in the Lower 48 states ended the natural gas refill season (April 1–October 31) with more than 3,900 billion cubic feet (Bcf), according to estimates based on data from our Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report released on November 6. U.S. inventories are starting winter 2025–26 at about the same level as last year, the most since 2016. As of October 31, inventories are 4% above the five-year (2020–24) average after above-average injections into storage throughout much of the injection season.
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In-brief analysis
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Driven by an increase in wholesale natural gas prices, retail U.S. natural gas prices for every sector have increased so far this year, although the increases are uneven across sectors. In our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, we expect the 2025 annual average price of natural gas paid by electric power plants to increase by 37% and the price paid by industrial sector customers to increase by 21% compared with the 2024 averages. We forecast that natural gas prices for customers in the commercial and residential sectors will increase by less, at 4% each.
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In-brief analysis
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In the third quarter of 2025, solar projects representing about 20% of planned capacity reported a delay, a decrease from 25% in the same period in 2024, based on data compiled from multiple Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory reports.
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In-brief analysis
Nov 7, 2025
The United States produced 104 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of natural gas, 75% more than the world’s second-largest natural gas producer, Russia, in 2023, the most recent year for which we have comprehensive worldwide data on natural gas production.
The United States has been the world’s largest producer of natural gas since 2009. More recently, U.S. natural gas production has increased further, averaging 106 Bcf/d for the first half of 2025 (1H2025).
Three regions in the United States are among the top 10 natural gas-producing areas in the world when ranked independently against other natural gas-producing countries:
The Appalachia region, in the northeastern United States, encompasses the Marcellus and Utica shale plays and ranked as the second-largest producer with 33 Bcf/d in 2023. More recently, production from the region has continued to average 33 Bcf/d in 1H2025.
The Permian region, in Texas and New Mexico, ranked fifth worldwide with 21 Bcf/d in 2023. Production from the Permian has since increased to average 25 Bcf/d in 1H2025.
The Haynesville region, in Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas, ranked as the eighth-largest natural gas-producing area with 15 Bcf/d in 2023. Production from the Haynesville has declined slightly to average 14 Bcf/d in 1H2025.
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Data source: Enverus Note: Well vintage is the year a well first begins producing crude oil or natural gas
As U.S. crude oil and natural gas production have increased, so has the volume of production declines from existing wells. To offset the increasing declines, operators today must bring on new wells to sustain or increase production levels.
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In-brief analysis
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Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (MPA), Bunker Sales Note: 2025 data are an estimate based on data through September. Distillate fuel oil includes marine gasoil (MGO), marine diesel (MDO), and low-sulfur marine gasoil (LSMGO). Heavy fuel oil includes marine fuel oil (MFO).
When the International Maritime Organization’s lower marine sulfur limit known as IMO 2020 took effect in January 2020, commercial shippers pivoted sharply to fueling their vessels with low-sulfur fuel oil (LSFO). In the years since, high-sulfur fuel oil has reclaimed some market share, as a growing number of commercial vessels install sulfur scrubbers that allow operators to use the heavier, cheaper fuel oils while complying with the new sulfur emission limits.
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In-brief analysis
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According to data released by the U.S. Census Bureau in September, the United States exported 46.8 million short tons (MMst) of coal in the first half of 2025 (1H25), an 11% decline from 1H24.
Steam coal exports totaled 22.5 MMst, a 10% decline from 1H24. Metallurgical coal exports totaled 24.2 MMst, a 13% decline from 1H24.
Reduced coal exports to China (4.4 MMst) accounted for 73% of the decline in total U.S. net coal exports. China accounted for 76% of the decline in metallurgical coal exports and 68% of the decline in steam coal exports.
U.S. exports to China decreased after China imposed a 15% additional tariff on imports of U.S. coal in February and a 34% reciprocal tariff on imports from the United States in April.
The reduction in total exports also reflects a global market characterized by declining coal prices caused by ample supply and soft demand. Meanwhile, coal consumption in the U.S. electric power sector has risen due to more demand and higher natural gas prices.
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In-brief analysis
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Companies operating in Brazil have expanded the country’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) regasification infrastructure since 2020, more than doubling its import capacity as the country seeks to diversify its energy supply and enhance energy security. Brazil’s regasification capacity grew from 2.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2020 to 5.1 Bcf/d in August 2025.
