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(Bloomberg) — Stocks staged a comeback as a global flight from risky assets faded, with Bitcoin halting its slide to support the shift in tone.
S&P 500 futures rose 0.3%, signaling the resumption of gains after Monday’s losses broke a rally that delivered the benchmark’s best week since May. European and Asian stocks also advanced. Nasdaq 100 contracts climbed 0.4%.
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Bitcoin steadied after slumping more than 5%. Treasury yields at the longer end rose after a quiet start, with the 10-year rate up two basis points to 4.11%. The dollar was little changed.
The moves offered relief after a shaky start to what is typically a strong month for equities. Focus now shifts to the Federal Reserve for clues on the US rate outlook at next week’s meeting, with markets treating a cut as all but certain.
“For long-only investors like we are, I’d say in the absence of any major catalyst, it’s very much wait-and-see until the Fed meeting, while keeping an eye on US jobs and inflation data,” said Karen Georges, a fund manager at Ecofi Investissements in Paris.
Traders are looking for their next leg higher after a choppy November, when investors shifted into defensive sectors on concerns that lofty valuations could stall tech-driven gains. While global equities remain near record highs, the riskiest parts of the market are no longer drawing buyers as they once did.
Much now depends on the Fed’s decision at next week’s meeting. Disappointment would pose a risk for equities, though confidence in a cut remains high following softer labor and inflation data and a run of dovish comments from officials.
“Dips continue to present attractive buying opportunities,” wrote Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone. “The narrative behind that bull case remains an attractive one, with earnings growth solid, the underlying economy resilient, a calmer tone on trade continuing to prevail, and the monetary backdrop growing looser.”
Anyone wagering against US stocks this month should factor in the economy’s strength and continued artificial-intelligence enthusiasm, according to 22V Research. Its strategists argued that robust consumer spending and ongoing AI investment will support productivity, allowing the profit growth needed to keep equities climbing.
US equity short sellers were down $80 billion in mark-to-market losses in the final week of November, according to data compiled by S3 Partners. That wiped out the bulk of what had been nearly $95 billion in month-to-date profits going into that period.
In commodities, silver pulled back from a record high, with a technical gauge showing that a six-day rally had pushed the metal into overbought territory. Copper also retreated amid signs that softer Chinese demand heading into winter might help to ease a looming global supply crunch.
What Bloomberg Strategists say…
“As Bitcoin steadies from Monday’s slump, it’s important to remember that recent downturns of this magnitude have often been followed by a recovery to fresh record highs. There is a reliable pillar of support for Bitcoin that should remain in place through next year: Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts should loosen financial conditions.”
— Conor Cooper, Macro Squawk. Click here to read the full analysis.
Corporate News:
MongoDB Inc. rose 24% in premarket trading after the database softwar firm reported stronger-than-expected results and raised its full-year target. ISS A/S shares slumped in Copenhagen amid concerns over the Danish company’s role in the renovation of a Hong Kong apartment fire where a deadly fire broke out on Nov. 26. Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. was fielding a second round of bids on Monday, including a mostly cash offer from Netflix Inc., in an auction that could wrap up in the coming days or weeks, according to people familiar with the discussions. Bank of Nova Scotia topped estimates on better-than-expected results at its capital-markets and wealth-management divisions even as it booked a restructuring charge to cut expenses. Bayer AG shares surged as much as 14%, hitting the highest level since January 2024, after the US Solicitor General urged the high court to consider the German company’s appeal targeting thousands of lawsuits blaming its Roundup weedkiller for causing cancer. Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
S&P 500 futures rose 0.3% as of 8:27 a.m. New York time Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.4% Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1% The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.1% The MSCI World Index was little changed Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed The euro was little changed at $1.1616 The British pound was little changed at $1.3205 The Japanese yen fell 0.4% to 156.04 per dollar Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin rose 1.1% to $87,404.54 Ether rose 1.7% to $2,839.32 Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.11% Germany’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 2.76% Britain’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 4.50% Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.2% to $59.19 a barrel Spot gold fell 0.6% to $4,207 an ounce This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Alexandra Semenova and Michael Msika.
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A leading thinktank has warned Rachel Reeves that tight government spending and higher taxes will restrict consumer expenditure, despite it predicting the UK economy will grow at a faster pace than France, Germany and Italy next year.
Analysts at the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said the government’s ongoing “fiscal consolidation” – meaning higher taxes and reduced government spending – would act as a “headwind” to the UK economy, with “past tax and spending adjustments weighing on household disposable income and slowing consumption”.
The Paris-based organisation predicted that the UK economy would expand by 1.2% next year, while the big three eurozone economies would each fail to reach 1%.
Offering a boost to Reeves after she faced calls to resign after the budget, the UK’s growth rate was upgraded from a previous forecast of 1% for next year. However, that represents a slowdown from the 1.4% growth predicted for this year, unchanged from the last forecast three months ago.
The chancellor – who has put an emphasis on growing the UK economy – announced £26bn worth of tax rises in last week’s budget, with measures including a freeze on income tax thresholds that will leave 1.7 million people paying more, taking the tax burden to an all-time high, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).
Separately, the OECD said the US economy would grow by 1.7% next year, down from 2% this year and 2.4% in 2024, in a blow to Donald Trump’s efforts to increase growth by restricting imports and reducing regulations on big industries.
In a report that highlighted how a flurry of activity this year to cope with Trump’s tariffs had given a temporary lift to many economies, the OECD said there would be a return to lower, stagnant rates of expansion across much of the industrialised world.
The UK, like most industrialised countries, is expected to reduce interest rates as inflation is predicted to gradually return to a 2% target by mid-2027. The report predicts there will be two more reductions in rates, from 4% now to 3.5% in the second quarter of 2026, but this will mark the end of rate cuts.
The chancellor welcomed the prospect of higher growth and lower inflation. She said: “Last week my budget cut waiting lists, cut borrowing and debt and cut the cost of living. Less than a week later, the OECD has upgraded our growth and cut its forecast for inflation next year.”
The UK’s economic establishment was rocked on Monday by the resignation of Richard Hughes, the chair of the OBR, which provides the Treasury with independent forecasts of the economic outlook and government finances.
Hughes quit after a report said the leadership of the OBR should take responsibility for information about the budget being accessed before the chancellor’s speech, breeching a longstanding protocol. Hughes was also in the midst of a dispute with Reeves over whether she had misled the public about the state of the public finances based on private briefings by the OBR.
Most governments are expected to struggle to accelerate growth next year while they impose tight spending controls and restrict borrowing levels, limiting their ability to increase investment and raise living standards.
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Mathias Cormann, the OECD secretary general, described the return of low growth as a mark of resilience amid global uncertainty about trade. However, he said there were concerns about low levels of productivity across the OECD’s 38 member countries, which also include Vietnam, Mexico, Canada and Costa Rica.
The OECD report said: “The global economy has been resilient this year, despite concerns about a sharper slowdown in the wake of higher trade barriers and significant policy uncertainty. Activity has held up thanks to front-loading of production and trade, strong AI-related investment and supportive fiscal and monetary policies.
“Yet, global trade growth moderated in the second quarter of this year, and we expect higher tariffs to gradually feed through to higher prices, reducing growth in household consumption and business investment. Labour markets are still relatively tight, but are showing signs of easing, as job openings have fallen back to their pre-pandemic levels of 2019.”
In line with most other international forecasters, the OECD said global economic growth would slow from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025 and 2.9% in 2026, followed by a small rebound to 3.1% in 2027.
In October the International Monetary Fund said global growth was projected to slow from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026.
In an apparent rebuke to Trump, Cormann said: “Constructive dialogue between countries is central to ensure a lasting resolution to trade tensions and improve the economic outlook.”
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Barclays’ chief executive has suggested that fintech rival Revolut has benefited from its lack of a full UK banking licence, with the fast-growing digital start-up not required to meet some “very important consumer obligations” imposed on traditional lenders.
CS Venkatakrishnan told the FT Global Banking Summit on Tuesday that fintechs had “really laid down the gauntlet to the banks in terms of the quality of services they provide”.
However, he suggested that banks were not operating on a level playing field with digital challengers such as Revolut.
“There is another side of it, which is that they don’t have a full banking licence in the UK, so they are free from some of the very important consumer obligations that we have to fulfil to society,” said Venkatakrishnan.
“I think we should continue to operate with our standards, with our integrity, with our regulation. If we can marry them, we will be happy,” he added.
Revolut secured a $75bn valuation in a fundraising round that concluded last week, briefly making it worth more than Barclays.
The banking start-up has become one of Europe’s most valuable fintechs, helped by a boom in demand for its crypto services. Revolut has 65mn customers globally, with 12mn in the UK.
Paul Thwaite, the NatWest chief executive, said in a separate interview at the summit that he was not concerned about being overtaken in valuation terms by Revolut, which he called a “very different business” compared with “a NatWest or a Barclays”.
“I don’t lose sleep thinking about market capitalisation. I lose sleep thinking about how we have got the best possible product and proposition to deliver to our clients,” he said.
Thwaite added: “Companies like Revolut have raised the bar in terms of the retail proposition so that is the lens I am looking at it through. What are they doing for their customers? What do we think we are doing better than what they are doing? What do I think we need to be better at?”
UK regulators are yet to award Revolut a full banking licence, capping the deposits it can take in and limiting its ability to lend, in part because of the rapid growth of its overseas operations.
Revolut said: “As a UK payment service provider, Revolut abides by the same regulatory and consumer protection standards as any traditional bank or other financial institution.”
Venkatakrishnan said that Barclays took on its consumer obligations “willingly and happily”.
He also commended UK chancellor Rachel Reeves after last week’s Budget for focusing on growth and building a greater fiscal buffer into the public finances.
“On balance, [the Budget] is a very good job. It is a good job that gives this government the room to take the next steps to promote growth and productivity, which is really what is needed,” he said.
Last week, Barclays announced it would be boosting investment in the UK by £45bn over the next three years.
“These are not small amounts and this reflects our confidence [in the UK],” said Venkatakrishnan.
