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The investing giant hasn’t offered us exact reasons for his decision, but since we do know that he favors buying stocks for a good price, it’s fair to say that one key element may be holding him back. And this is valuation.

A look at the S&P 500 Shiller CAPE ratio shows us that stocks are at one of their most expensive levels ever. The metric, a measure of stock price in relation to earnings over a 10-year period, recently climbed to 40, a level it’s only reached once before since the S&P 500’s formation as a 500-company benchmark.

Now, let’s consider what history has to say about what may happen in 2026. At times when Berkshire Hathaway’s cash levels have been on the rise and reached a peak, the S&P 500 then has taken a dip, as you can see in the chart below, particularly in early 2016 and then toward 2017. The S&P 500 Shiller CAPE ratio also has been on the rise prior to these stock market dips, suggesting valuation may play a role in this trend.

This historical pattern suggests we may see a dip in stocks in 2026 — but this doesn’t necessarily mean that the year will finish in the negative. Stock market declines that have followed Buffett’s increases in cash levels generally have been short-lived, and most important of all, the S&P 500’s declines always have resulted in recovery and gains in the years to follow.

So, what does all of this mean for investors? Buffett’s actions imply opportunities aren’t overly abundant right now — and that could start weighing on demand for stocks. This “warning” means investors should pay close attention to valuations and avoid buying stocks that are overpriced or have questionable long-term prospects.

Fortunately, though, if stocks do slip in 2026, history shows us these periods aren’t long lasting — and that’s why investing for a number of years has been a winning strategy for Warren Buffett and could be a winning strategy for you too.

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Adria Cimino has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Berkshire Hathaway. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Warren Buffett, Weeks Before His Retirement, Has a Warning for Wall Street. History Says This May Happen in 2026. was originally published by The Motley Fool