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Centerra Gold (TSX:CG) is back in focus after a leading brokerage moved the stock to its highest conviction rating, pointing to fresh permitting at Mount Milligan and updated economics at the Kemess copper gold project.

See our latest analysis for Centerra Gold.

Those permitting wins and the Kemess update have arrived alongside sharp market interest, with a 30 day share price return of 23.72% and a 90 day share price return of 66.27%, while the 1 year total shareholder return of 195.44% points to strong momentum that investors are now reassessing in light of Centerra Gold’s expanded project pipeline.

If you are tracking how miners are repricing on new project news, it can help to widen the lens and see what else is moving among fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

With Centerra Gold shares up strongly over the past year and the stock now trading just under its CA$28.15 analyst price target and near its estimated intrinsic value, the key question is whether there is still a buying opportunity here or if the market is already pricing in future growth.

Compared with the current CA$25.19 share price, the most followed narrative pegs Centerra Gold’s fair value at about CA$21.47, implying a premium that investors may want to unpack before leaning on recent momentum.

The analyst price target for Centerra Gold has ticked higher by about C$0.25, with analysts pointing to updated fair value estimates, modest tweaks to discount and growth assumptions, as well as a lower projected future P/E multiple as key supports for the change.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what supports that higher target even as the future earnings multiple comes down and margin assumptions shift? The most followed narrative blends projected revenue growth, profitability changes and a specific discount rate into one fair value line. If you want to see exactly which earnings and cash flow paths are doing the heavy lifting in that model, the full narrative walks through every step of the calculation.

Result: Fair Value of CA$21.47 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

However, that fair value story can shift quickly if Mount Milligan’s grade uncertainty persists, or if higher all in sustaining costs squeeze margins at current gold prices.

Find out about the key risks to this Centerra Gold narrative.

While the most followed narrative sees Centerra Gold as 17% overvalued versus its CA$21.47 fair value line, the current P/E of 11x tells a different story. That multiple sits well below the Canadian Metals and Mining industry at 27.8x and peers at 35.2x, and also below a 14.9x fair ratio that the market could eventually lean toward. This raises the question of whether recent share price strength has fully closed that gap or not.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

If you look at this view and feel it misses something, or you simply prefer your own work, you can build a custom story in minutes with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Centerra Gold research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include CG.TO.

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