LAHORE (Dunya News) – The provincial governments of Punjab and Balochistan have officially issued the schedule for winter vacation across all public and private educational institutions.
Shoppers held back from visiting high streets over Black Friday, data shows, amid fears weak consumer spending will put the brakes on economic growth in 2026.
Visitors to all UK shopping destinations were down 2% on Friday and 7.2% compared with the equivalent days last year, according to the monitoring company MRI Software, with locations near central London offices among the few to experience a lift in visits.
While most Black Friday sales are now online, the picture there was also a mixed bag in the run-up to the big weekend. Sales down heavily on Thursday but up on Tuesday, according to the online retail association IMRG.
“The cost of living squeeze appears to be weighing on overall activity,” said Jenni Matthews from MRI.
The lacklustre data came as the consultancy KPMG highlighted soft consumer spending as one factor likely to hold back the economy over the next 12 months.
Despite the fact that most of the £26bn tax-raising impact of Rachel Reeves’s budget would not be felt until later, KPMG suggested cash-strapped households would continue to be cautious, as unemployment ticks up to 5.2%.
“The outlook for growth in 2026 is subdued, reflecting the impact of a cooling labour market and weak household spending,” said KPMG’s chief economist, Yael Selfin, although she pointed to positive “pockets”, including green energy.
“The medium-term picture could improve further if planning reforms unlock housing delivery and uncertainty reduces for investors,” she added, predicting GDP growth of 1% for 2026 and 1.4% for 2027.
This gloomy outlook chimes with two other reports published on Monday, both underlining the downbeat mood among business leaders.
The Confederation of British Industry’s services sector survey, carried out before the budget, showed the fastest decline in optimism about the general business situation for three years, with companies citing rising costs and uncertainty about future demand.
“Looking ahead, businesses expect little near-term relief, with uncertainty about demand and persistent cost pressures set to constrain future hiring and investment plans,” said the CBI’s Charlotte Dendy.
Separately, the Institute of Directors said its economic confidence index, based on a survey of business leaders, was at a near record low of -73 in the run-up to Reeves’s budget, and improved by a whisker to -72 afterwards.
Anna Leach, the IoD’s chief economist, said: “In the weeks running up to the budget, persistent speculation over tax rises kept confidence subdued. And with our snap poll showing that four in five business leaders (80%) view the budget negatively, it is no surprise that confidence remains close to record lows afterwards.”
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Separately, hospitality businesses said they would take a big hit from business rates changes, forcing them to rein in investment and hiring. They said measures announced in the budget to protect businesses, as Covid-era support comes to an end, were not enough to offset rises linked to the increase in rateable value of their properties.
Under the complex tax system, for many pubs in particular there will be a big increase next year in their rateable value – a key part of the business rates calculation. This is in contrast to many retailers whose rateable value will fall because of poorer trade on high streets.
In her budget speech, Reeves announced that she was introducing “permanently lower tax rates for over 750,000 retail, hospitality and leisure properties”, paid for with higher rates on the biggest retailers, including big online companies.
However, Paul Crossman, the chair of the Campaign for Pubs and the licensee of three pubs in York, said: “In the vast majority of cases it seems that instead of the promised reduction in our bills [our members] will be expected to pay more, in many cases vastly more, once the existing support finishes next April.”
Alex Reilley, the head of the Loungers chain, said for his business there was a mixed picture because some sites were not categorised as pubs, but he added: “Most [hospitality] businesses will be looking at an increase of some description and for our pub sector it could quite easily be an extinction event.”
The government has said it will provide billions of pounds in “transitional relief” to support those hit by big increases in business rates next year but analysts have dismissed this as merely delaying the pain.
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Australian dollar rallies after inflation beats forecasts
AUD/USD wrapped up last week on a firm note, settling at 0.6550 for a 1.45% gain – its highest weekly close in eight weeks. The Australian dollar’s rise was fuelled by several supportive factors.
On Wednesday, Australia’s monthly consumer price index (CPI) for October was hotter than expected. Headline inflation rose by 3.8% year-on-year (YoY) in October, and the trimmed mean measure rose by 3.3%. This resulted in the Australian interest rate market moving from pricing in a modest chance of a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate cut in 2026 to a modest chance of a rate hike. Additionally, the same day saw the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) deliver a hawkish 25 basis point (bp) rate cut, signalling it was likely done cutting interest rates.
Meanwhile, expectations for next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting saw a dovish repricing, with the implied probability of a 25 bp cut on 10 December soaring from around 30% in mid-November to approximately 85% today.
This rapid shift in Federal Reserve (Fed) and RBA rate expectations, alongside buoyant risk appetite, enabled AUD/USD and other risk-sensitive currencies to stage an impressive rally by week’s end.
Key factors for AUD/USD outlook
Looking forward, three key factors will determine whether AUD/USD can continue its ascent.
Global risk sentiment: must maintain the positive tone from last week. This premise is currently being tested, with US S&P 500 equity futures trading 0.67% lower at 6813, weighed down by a sell-off in Japanese government bonds and the Nikkei225 /on rising expectations of a Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike in December.
Upcoming US data releases: including September’s core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation, personal income and spending figures, and November’s Institute for Supply Management (ISM) purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs), will be important. Particular focus will be on the ISM services PMI, given that services account for approximately 70% of US gross domestic product (GDP), and its employment sub-index offers valuable insights into the state of the US labour market.
Q3 Australian GDP release: is scheduled for Wednesday and previewed below.
Q3 GDP
Date: Wednesday, 3 December at 11.30am AEDT
In the second quarter (Q2) of 2025, Australian GDP increased by 0.6%, accelerating from 0.3% in the prior quarter, for an annual rate of 1.8%. It was the Australian economy’s 15thconsecutive quarter of growth.
The number was stronger than expected, driven by a sharp rebound in household consumption, providing evidence the RBA’s rate-cutting cycle is gaining traction.
As we await the final partial components that feed into Wednesday’s GDP print, the preliminary forecast is for a rise of 0.7% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ), lifting the annual growth rate to 2.2% – the fastest pace of annual growth since Q1 2023.
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