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Armstrong World Industries (AWI) delivered a strong third-quarter update, topping forecasts for adjusted earnings and net sales while raising its outlook for 2025. This financial momentum has been met with a more upbeat mood among investors.

See our latest analysis for Armstrong World Industries.

Momentum has picked up for Armstrong World Industries this year, with a 35.4% share price return since January and a one-year total shareholder return of nearly 20%. Investors seem to be rewarding the company’s upgraded outlook and recent string of upbeat earnings, supporting a more positive long-term view on the stock.

If this kind of upward momentum has you interested in broader market trends, now is the perfect opportunity to uncover other fast growing stocks with strong insider support through our fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

With shares already up strongly year to date and trading just below analyst price targets, investors now face a key question: Is Armstrong World Industries still undervalued, or is all the future growth already priced in?

With Armstrong World Industries closing at $189.74 versus the narrative fair value estimate of $207.1, the stage is set for a deeper look at what is driving the disconnect between price and value in the eyes of the most closely followed forecasters.

Ongoing strategic acquisitions (for example, 3form and Zahner) and successful integration are broadening Armstrong’s addressable market to capture additional spaces within commercial buildings and accelerate cross-selling opportunities. This is expected to support both revenue growth and improved net margins through scale and operational synergies.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know what fuels this surprisingly optimistic price target? See how the narrative’s biggest bets on future sales, profit margins and sector leadership play out in numbers. Is Armstrong’s growth story credible or are expectations set sky high? Click through and see just how bold these projections really are.

Result: Fair Value of $207.1 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

However, risks remain. Prolonged soft commercial construction demand or ineffective acquisition integration could quickly reverse Armstrong’s current growth momentum.

Find out about the key risks to this Armstrong World Industries narrative.

Shifting from narrative fair value to a different lens, the current price-to-earnings ratio stands at 26.8x, outpacing the industry’s 18.9x and also above the fair ratio of 21.8x. This highlights a valuation premium, which may reflect investor confidence. However, it also leaves less margin for error if expectations falter. Could the stock be riskier at these levels, or does the market know something others do not?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

You do not have to take these conclusions at face value. Explore the numbers, follow your own instincts, and assemble your unique take in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Armstrong World Industries.

Smart investors always keep their edge sharp. Take the next step now by checking out handpicked stocks matching themes and opportunities you will not find anywhere else.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include AWI.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

• Thinking about whether Global Business Travel Group stock is a real bargain or just flying under the radar? You are not alone. Figuring out the true value of this stock has plenty of investors curious.

• The share price jumped 8.4% over the past week, but it is still down 1.7% for the month and sits nearly 18% below where it was a year ago. This hints at both fresh optimism and lingering skepticism in the market.

• Recently, industry updates and M&A discussions have kept Global Business Travel Group in the spotlight. Investors are weighing announcements about new strategic partnerships and travel demand trends, all of which are shaping sentiment around the stock’s future potential.

• If you are keeping score, Global Business Travel Group currently rates a 6 out of 6 on our valuation checklist, meaning it is deemed undervalued on every single metric we track. Let’s dive into what that score really means, and stick around for a look at an even more insightful take on valuation coming later in the article.

Find out why Global Business Travel Group’s -17.9% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model determines a company’s intrinsic value by projecting its future free cash flows and discounting them back to today’s dollars. This approach helps investors assess whether a stock’s current price fairly reflects its future earning power.

For Global Business Travel Group, the latest reported Free Cash Flow stands at $129.7 Million. Projections point to continued growth, with analysts expecting FCF to reach $425 Million by 2028. Although detailed analyst estimates end at five years, Simply Wall St extends the outlook by extrapolating steady growth up to 2035, with future cash flows peaking at $625.9 Million. All projections are in US dollars.

Using these figures, the DCF model estimates the stock’s fair value at $14.21 per share. This valuation signals a substantial discount because the current market price sits about 45.8% below this intrinsic value.

In summary, Global Business Travel Group appears undervalued at today’s prices based on the DCF analysis alone, which may be of interest to value-focused investors.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Global Business Travel Group is undervalued by 45.8%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 920 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Global Business Travel Group.

The Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio is often considered a reliable benchmark for valuing profitable companies, especially when earnings may be less consistent year over year. This ratio is particularly useful in sectors like hospitality, where revenue growth can signal underlying business health even when profits fluctuate due to temporary costs or investments.

Investors should keep in mind that normal or fair P/S ratios reflect not just a company’s growth prospects, but also risk factors such as market volatility and profit consistency. Companies with better growth outlooks or lower risks typically command higher multiples, while slower or riskier businesses tend to trade at discounts.

Currently, Global Business Travel Group trades at a P/S ratio of 1.60x. For comparison, the industry average sits at 1.66x, and close peers average 3.45x. Simply Wall St’s proprietary Fair Ratio, which accounts for the company’s unique combination of earnings growth, profit margins, industry, market cap, and risk profile, stands at 2.12x.

This Fair Ratio offers a tailored benchmark and is more insightful than a straight comparison to peers or the industry average, as it incorporates projections and qualitative factors that standard multiples do not reflect.

In this case, Global Business Travel Group’s current P/S ratio is clearly below the Fair Ratio. This points to attractive value at current levels, suggesting the stock is undervalued by this metric.

Result: UNDERVALUED

PS ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1443 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let’s introduce you to Narratives. A Narrative is a story-driven framework for investing, where you connect your perspective about a company—its opportunities, risks, and the reasons behind its potential—directly with the numbers, such as forecasts of future revenue and profit margins, to form a unique view of fair value.

Unlike static data points, Narratives invite you to actively consider how business events and your own research shape the financial future you expect. On Simply Wall St’s Community page, millions of investors use Narratives as a simple tool to articulate their reasoning, see how their story translates into numbers, and instantly compare the resulting Fair Value to the current market price.

Narratives make it easier to decide when to buy or sell by updating dynamically as new information, such as earnings results or industry news, emerges. For example, some Global Business Travel Group Narratives are built around bullish views that integration of acquisitions and digital expansion will drive fair value as high as $11.00 per share, while more cautious investors, focusing on uncertain travel demand and integration risks, arrive at targets as low as $7.00.

Do you think there’s more to the story for Global Business Travel Group? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include GBTG.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

Donald Trump’s tariffs have increased prices on an array of popular holiday goods and driven a “massive” number of small firms out of business, industry leaders have warned.

On Small Business Saturday, firms have their fingers crossed that strong holiday sales will ease the impact of a tough year. But many aren’t holding their breath.

“My husband and I have invested a lot of our retirement money into this business,” Joann Cartiglia, owner of Queen’s Treasures, a toy company in Ticonderoga, New York, during a press briefing organized by We Pay the Tariffs, a coalition of small businesses, this week. “And now I have absolutely no hope of retirement.”

“I honestly feel the government is putting me out of business,” added Cartiglia, 64.

Lawsuits, opposition from big business, and pleas for help from small importers have failed to persuade the Trump administration to reconsider its aggressive strategy on trade from overseas, which the US president claims will raise trillions of dollars for the federal government.

Opponents of tariffs are “serving hostile foreign interests”, Trump has claimed.

The tariff rates of various holiday goods have risen in the past year

Small businesses, particularly in the retail industry, typically rely heavily on the holiday trading season, but are grappling with increased costs, supply chain disruption, logistical issues and uncertainty due to tariffs.

Tariffs have hit some small businesses especially hard, as they often have smaller margins – and are less able to absorb costs, or secure exemptions – than bigger firms.

Jared Hendricks has run Village Lighting Co in West Valley City, Utah, which specializes in holiday lights and decorations, for over 20 years. He estimates his tariffs costs are approaching $1m so far this year.

“At this point, we’ve kind of transitioned from working for profits to working for tariffs,” said Hendricks. “We are just in business to pay off our tariff debt.”

But some operators anticipate that the problem is likely to get worse.

“Whatever price increases you’re seeing in the holiday industry for your Christmas trees, for your lighting, for your other decor, this year will be small compared to next year, if tariff relief isn’t given for the 2026 season,” added Hendricks. “American manufacturing has never done Christmas goods, so it’s not responsible for taking away any jobs.

“The supply chain for Christmas items is simply too complex, and [it] would take billions of dollars in decades to build that infrastructure to move that production here. And then, even if you did, the workforce is not sufficient to support it.”

Boyd Stephenson, owner of Game Kastle College Park in College Park, Maryland, said the firm’s costs had soared due to the tariffs. “Most of my manufacturers and publishers don’t really have the space to absorb, or to pass on price increases to their customers, so they’re getting squeezed,” he said. “The number of toy and game studios that I have seen go under this year is massive.

“Up until a month ago, I’d be saying: ‘Hey, most of the federal workforce isn’t employed either, so we’re hunkering down for a terrifying holiday season.’ But we’re still pretty scared, even with the shutdown being over.”

A survey of 1,048 small businesses conducted by Small Business for America’s Future found 71% of small business owners expect tariffs to have a negative impact on consumer spending this holiday season, and 44% expect a very negative impact.

About 44% of small businesses surveyed reported raising prices due to tariffs, and 74% reported being worried about their business surviving over the next 12 months.

“The administration has consistently maintained that the cost of tariffs will ultimately be paid by the foreign exporters who rely on access to the American economy, the world’s biggest and best consumer market,” said White House spokesperson Kush Desai. “As tariffs secure new trade deals and trillions in investments to make and hire in America, the Administration is simultaneously implementing a pro-growth agenda of tax cuts, deregulation, and energy abundance for big and small businesses alike to thrive again as they did during President Trump’s first term.”.