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Brent crude oil futures were flat on Friday and US crude futures rose as drawn-out Russia-Ukraine peace talks kept geopolitical risks elevated and traders kept an eye on Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting for clues about potential output changes.

US West Texas Intermediate crude futures resumed trading after being frozen due to a system outage at exchange operator CME Group, blamed on a cooling issue at CyrusOne data centres. Brent trades on the Intercontinental Exchange, or ICE.

Front-month Brent crude futures for January, which expire on Friday, were up 6 cents, or 0.09 per cent, at $63.40 a barrel at 12:44 p.m. EDT (1744 GMT). The more active February contract changed hands at $63.24, up 37 cents, or 0.59 per cent.

WTI crude traded at $59.47 a barrel, up 82 cents, or 1.4 per cent, from Wednesday’s close. There was no settlement on Thursday due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the US

Longest losing streak since 2023

Despite being up more than 1 per cent for the week, both contracts are headed for a fourth straight monthly loss, their longest losing streak since 2023, as expectations for higher global supply weighed on prices.

The strength of fuel refining profit margins has supported crude demand in some places, but the bearish impact of an expected oil surplus is pressuring prices, said Rystad analyst Janiv Shah.

US oil production rose to record highs in September, data from the Energy Information Administration showed on Friday, deepening concerns that the market is heading towards a surplus.

US crude oil output rose 44,000 barrels per day in September to a record 13.84 million bpd, according to the EIA data.

A Reuters survey of 35 economists and analysts showed respondents expect Brent to average $62.23 per barrel in 2026, down from October’s forecast of $63.15. The benchmark has averaged $68.80 per barrel so far in 2025, LSEG data showed.

Signs that a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia might be close pushed oil prices down sharply earlier this week, but they have recovered over the past three sessions as negotiations dragged on.

“Futures had been anticipating some sort of a peace agreement which has kept pressure on prices,” Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial, said in a note on Friday.

“Still, little is known at this time, and no agreement will likely mean even tighter sanctions on Russia’s oil exports.”

On Sunday, OPEC+ is likely to leave oil output levels unchanged at its meetings and to agree on a mechanism to assess members’ maximum production capacity, two delegates from the group and a source familiar with the group’s talks told Reuters.

Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter, is expected to lower its January crude price for Asian buyers for a second month to its lowest in five years, under pressure from ample supplies and the surplus outlook, sources told Reuters on Friday.

Interactive Brokers Group (IBKR) has caught investor attention as upward revisions to earnings estimates suggest growing confidence in the company ahead of its next quarterly report. This has fueled renewed market activity around the stock.

See our latest analysis for Interactive Brokers Group.

After a strong showing in the latest session, Interactive Brokers Group’s stock reflects building momentum, with a 1-day share price gain of 1.29% and a robust 42.5% share price return so far this year. Despite some short-term fluctuations, the company’s longer-term track record remains impressive, boasting a 36.7% total shareholder return over one year and an enormous 385% over five years.

If you’re curious about what’s catching investor attention lately, it could be an ideal moment to broaden your scope and discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership

With upgraded analyst outlooks and a history of outperformance, is Interactive Brokers Group still trading at an attractive value, or has the market already factored in all of its future growth potential?

With a fair value estimate of $76.82 from the most widely followed narrative, Interactive Brokers Group’s last close of $65.02 stands notably below this projection. This intensifies the spotlight on the stock’s future prospects.

The introduction of new products and enhancements, such as the strengthened ATS with new liquidity providers and order types, enhancements to the IBKR Financial Advisor Portal, and the launch of securities lending for Swedish stocks, suggests potential for increased trading activity and higher commission revenue. Record client credit balances at $107.1 billion, up 36% over last year, indicate a strong trust in the platform and substantial funds availability for trading, possibly leading to higher net interest income from margin loans as clients leverage their positions.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know what’s powering this aggressive price target? The secret may lie in new product launches and surging client assets. But there is a bold forecast for future profit margins and growth rates hidden beneath the surface. Find out what assumptions drive this valuation narrative and see if you agree with the analyst consensus.

Result: Fair Value of $76.82 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

However, unexpected shifts in global interest rates or intensifying competition in key markets could challenge Interactive Brokers Group’s growth trajectory and valuation outlook.

Find out about the key risks to this Interactive Brokers Group narrative.

Looking from a different angle, Interactive Brokers Group trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 31.6x, which is higher than both its industry peers at 23.6x and a market fair ratio of 21.1x. The gap signals the market may be pricing in a lot of future optimism, which could create valuation risk if expectations shift. Could a high rating eventually align with the company’s long-term reality?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

If you have a different perspective or want to dive into the numbers yourself, it’s easy to craft your own storyline in just minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Interactive Brokers Group research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

Smart investors never settle for one opportunity. Expand your outlook and seize potential winners before the crowd does with these powerful ways to generate new ideas on Simply Wall Street:

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include IBKR.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

What’s going on here?

China’s yuan is on its best run in years, but the country’s central bank already looks like it’s trying to tap the brakes.

What does this mean?

The onshore yuan is on track for a fourth straight monthly gain versus the dollar – its longest winning streak in four years – after touching a 13‑month high. Both the onshore and offshore yuan are up solidly this year, by about 3.2% and 3.7% against the dollar as of early Friday. But traders say that strength doesn’t quite square with China’s softer backdrop, with recent data pointing to weak domestic demand and factory activity still under scrutiny. The rally is mostly riding on a broadly weaker dollar, which is heading for its worst week in four months, with thin US Thanksgiving trading exaggerating moves. That leaves the People’s Bank of China in a tricky spot, and it’s pushing back by setting its daily midpoint fix weaker than market models suggest for a second day in a row, using its 2% trading band to lean against further gains.

Why should I care?

For markets: Currency moves are shouting more than the economy is whispering.

The yuan’s climb is coming even as China’s money markets loosen, with the volume‑weighted overnight repo rate down to around 1.29% – its lowest level in more than two years. Easier cash conditions and ongoing policy support usually point to a weaker, not stronger, currency, which is why the PBOC seems wary of letting the yuan run too far. Morgan Stanley reckons the real driver from here will be the dollar and the Fed, and expects the yuan to gradually strengthen toward 7.0 per dollar by mid‑2026, before easing slightly to roughly 7.05 by the end of that year. In the short term, though, traders are zeroing in on November factory data and the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference – two events that could jolt Chinese stocks, bonds, and regional currencies.

The bigger picture: A stronger yuan does not mean a stronger China just yet.

A firmer yuan can help tamp down imported inflation and project confidence, but it can also squeeze exporters at a time when China’s recovery is still fragile. Recent indicators have underscored weak domestic demand, right as policymakers try to shore up growth with targeted easing and looser funding conditions. That tension helps explain why the PBOC seems comfortable with relative currency stability, but not with an unchecked rally driven mainly by a wobbly dollar. For global investors and governments, how China manages that balance between growth, currency control, and capital flows into 2025 and 2026 will influence trade patterns, commodity demand, and how other Asian central banks steer their own exchange rates.

A newly validated noninvasive scoring tool has shown superior performance in identifying metabolic dysfunction–associated steatohepatitis (MASH) patients with advanced liver fibrosis, offering a potential step forward in reducing reliance on biopsy and improving risk stratification in the most common chronic liver disease worldwide.¹

The findings, published by researchers in Spain in Biomarker Research, confirmed that the BMP8A Fibrosis Score (BFS) more accurately classifies patients with severe fibrosis than several widely used diagnostic algorithms while eliminating the grey-zone results that often complicate clinical decision-making.

Although liver biopsy remains the gold standard for staging fibrosis, it is invasive, costly, and impractical to perform routinely. Existing noninvasive scoring systems, such as the Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) Index, NAFLD Fibrosis Score (NFS), Hepamet Fibrosis Score (HFS), and AST-to-Platelet Ratio Index (APRI), are widely used but have limitations, explained the researchers. Many patients fall into intermediate “grey zones,” where results are inconclusive and further testing is required. Variability in sensitivity and specificity across clinical settings further limits their reliability.

Researchers previously identified circulating bone morphogenetic protein 8A (BMP8A) as a promising biomarker after observing that serum levels rise progressively with fibrosis severity.² Building on these earlier findings, the team developed the BFS, which integrates BMP8A concentration with patient age and platelet count. In its initial derivation study, BFS showed encouraging accuracy in distinguishing advanced fibrosis in patients with biopsy-confirmed MASH.

To validate the score in an independent population, investigators analyzed serum BMP8A levels in 302 patients with MASH across 7 university hospitals in Spain. Of these, 171 had no or mild fibrosis (F0-F2), and 131 had advanced fibrosis (F3–F4). Serum BMP8A concentrations were significantly higher in patients with advanced fibrosis, averaging 339.6 pg/mL compared with 230.5 pg/mL in earlier-stage disease, with a clear stepwise increase across fibrosis stages.

Diagnostic accuracy was assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves and compared directly against other noninvasive scores. BMP8A alone had an AUROC of 0.669, while the composite BFS achieved 0.750, outperforming FIB-4 (0.747), HFS (0.723), APRI (0.706), and NFS (0.650). Although not dramatically higher, BFS delivered the strongest overall accuracy and, crucially, provided a single cutoff value of 0.46. Unlike competing scores that rely on dual thresholds and create indeterminate zones, BFS eliminates ambiguous results.

Using that cutoff, BFS correctly classified 70.9% of patients with advanced fibrosis, with a specificity of 80.7% and a positive predictive value (PPV) of 69.7%. Its negative predictive value (NPV) of 71.5% and likelihood ratio profile (LR+ 3.0; LR– 0.5) supported both ruling in and ruling out advanced disease. In contrast, FIB-4 at its commonly used ≥2.67 threshold correctly identified only 63.6% of advanced cases and misclassified a substantial proportion due to false negatives and indeterminate outputs. HFS and APRI performed similarly or worse, especially when restricted to higher cutoffs, and NFS showed the lowest diagnostic utility in this cohort.

By eliminating grey-zone classifications, BFS categorized 63.9% of the cohort as F0–F2 and 36.1% as F3–F4, providing a decisive result in every case. The authors noted that this feature may be particularly important in clinical trial screening, where rapid and reliable fibrosis stratification is required without exposing patients to unnecessary biopsy. The group noted that the multicenter design of their study strengthens generalizability, reflecting diverse patient populations and real-world variability across laboratories and hospitals.

However, the researchers acknowledged limitations of their findings. Because BFS requires ELISA-based measurement of serum BMP8A, it may be costlier and less accessible than scores derived exclusively from routine laboratory data.

“This drawback parallels other specialized biomarkers, such as MACK3, which improve accuracy but require additional assays, sometimes not available in commercial laboratories, as is the case with BFS,” wrote the researchers.

They emphasized that additional validation in broader populations, inter-laboratory reproducibility studies, and commercial assay availability will be necessary before widespread adoption. They also noted that BFS, like other biomarkers, should be interpreted alongside imaging tools such as elastography, which continue to play an expanding role in fibrosis assessment.

References

1. Isaza SC, Fernández-García CE, Rojo D, et al. Validation of BMP8A fibrosis score to identify patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis with advanced liver fibrosis. Biomark Res. Published online November 19, 2025. doi:10.1186/s40364-025-00862-3

2. Marañón P, Isaza SC, Fernández-García CE, Rey E, Gallego-Durán R, Montero- Vallejo R, et al. Circulating bone morphogenetic protein 8A is a novel biomarker to predict advanced liver fibrosis. Biomark Res. 2023;11(1):46. doi:10.1186/s40364-023-00489-2