Author: admin

NEW YORK — NEW YORK (AP) — Black Friday bargains no longer tempt people to leave Thanksgiving tables for midnight mall runs. Brawls in store aisles over toys and TVs with limited-time discounts are spectacles of holidays past. Online shopping and retailers launching discounts weeks before the turkey feast subdued that kind of fervor.

But the sales event still has enough enthusiasts to make the day after Thanksgiving the one when U.S. stores get the most shoppers coming in the door. For that reason, Black Friday still rules as the unofficial start of the holiday shopping season.

This year’s kickoff comes as consumer confidence in the U.S. economy fell this month in the aftermath of the federal government shutdown, weak hiring and stubborn inflation, according to a report The Conference Board issued Tuesday.

Many retail executives have reported customers becoming more discerning and increasingly focused on deals while at the same time remaining willing to splash out for important occasions like the start of the school year and the winter holidays, creating a halo effect.

“Consumers have been saying the economy is terrible while continuing to spend for years now, so the outlook is probably better than they are telling us,” Bill Adams, the chief economist at Comerica Bank, said this week of shoppers’ moods heading into Black Friday. “But business surveys also report consumers are being more sensitive to prices and selective in spending.”

While planning for the holidays in the spring and summer, retail companies were wrestling with the volatility of President Donald Trump ’s wide-ranging tariffs on imported goods. Many accelerated shipments of some merchandise before the tariffs took effect or decided to absorb some of the import tax costs instead of raising prices for customers.

Market research firm Circana said that 40% of all general merchandise sold in September saw a price increase of at least 5% compared with the first four months of the year.

Toys, baby products, housewares, and team sports equipment were among the hardest hit categories. For example, 83% of toys sold in September saw an increase of at least 5%, Circana said. Industry group The Toy Association says nearly 80% of the toys sold in the U.S. are made in China, a country the Trump administration hit with especially high tariffs at various points this year.

Still, analysts and mall executives cited solid momentum heading into Black Friday week. At the Mall of America in Bloomington, Minnesota, foot traffic in recent weeks surpassed the numbers from pre-pandemic 2019, said Jill Renslow, the mall’s chief business development and marketing officer.

“We’re seeing a very positive start to the holiday season,” Renslow said. “The last few Saturdays in November have been very strong.”

The growth in online sales also has been robust so far. From Nov. 1 to Nov. 23, consumers spent $79.7 billion, according to web tracking and analysis platform Adobe Analytics. That represented a gain of 7.5% from a year earlier and was bigger than Adobe’s 5.3% growth forecast for the season.

Mastercard SpendingPulse, which tracks spending across all payment methods, predicted a 3.6% increase in holiday sales from Nov. 1 through Dec. 24. That compares with a 4.1% increase last year.

“Clearly, there’s uncertainty,” Mastercard Chief Economist Michelle Meyer said. “Clearly, consumers feel on edge. But at the moment, it doesn’t seem like it’s changing how they are showing up for this season.”

According to Adobe Analytics, Thanksgiving Day was the best time to shop online to get the deepest discount on sporting goods. But Black Friday will be the best time to buy TVs, toys and appliances online.

Cyber Monday, however, should be the best time to buy apparel and computers. Apparel discounts peaked at 12.2% off the suggested manufacturer’s price between Nov. 1 and Nov. 23 but are expected to hit 25% off on Cyber Monday, Adobe said.

SINGAPORE, Nov 28 (Reuters) – Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter, is expected to lower its January crude price for Asian buyers for a second month to its lowest level for five years, tracking the decline in spot benchmark prices, sources said on Friday.

The January official selling price for flagship Arab Light crude will likely decline by 30-40 cents a barrel to a premium between 60 cents and 70 cents to the average of Oman/Dubai quotes, five Asia-based refining sources said in a Reuters survey.

Sign up here.

That would mark a second monthly decline and the lowest since January 2021, Reuters data showed.

The January OSPs for other crude grades – Arab Extra Light, Arab Medium and Arab Heavy – could fall by 30-50 cents a barrel from December, the sources said.

The forecasts mirrored a downward trend in cash Dubai’s premium to swaps, which have averaged 90 cents per barrel so far this month, down 32 cents from October. .

OPEC+ has raised output targets by around 2.9 million barrels per day from April to December.

There were also unexpected additional supplies this month from Kuwait Petroleum Corp which offered some 3.9 million barrels of heavy crude to the spot market after an outage at its Al-Zour refinery due to a fire.

State oil giant Saudi Aramco sets its crude prices based on recommendations from customers and after calculating the change in the value of its oil over the past month, based on yields and product prices.

Saudi Aramco officials as a matter of policy do not comment on the kingdom’s monthly OSPs.

Below are expected Saudi prices for January (in $/bbl against the Oman/Dubai average):

Source: Reuters, trade

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab