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By Mike Murphy

People shop inside Saks Fifth Avenue on Black Friday in New York City on Nov. 29, 2024. Investors will be keeping a close eye on upcoming retail data.

U.S. stock futures rose Sunday, in hopes of building on Friday’s rebound, as investors await the start of the critical holiday shopping season following a wild week on Wall Street.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM00) gained around 88 points, or 0.2%, late Sunday. S&P 500 futures (ES00) advanced 0.4% and Nasdaq-100 futures (NQ00) rose 0.6%. Crude futures (CL.1) fell, as did gold futures (GC00). The ICE U.S. Dollar Index DXY was little changed.

Stocks gained Friday, but were down sharply for the week. The tech-heavy Nasdaq COMP slid 2.7%, falling for a third straight week, while the Dow DJIA and S&P 500 SPX each dropped 1.9%. The tech sector has been beaten down amid growing worries of a potential bubble in artificial-intelligence stocks, and an upbeat earnings report from AI chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA) last Wednesday were not enough to relieve those fears.

Read more: Why the once-invincible Nvidia can’t save the AI trade

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) managed a weekend rally, though, after the leading cryptocurrency lost about a third of its value since hitting an all-time high price on Oct. 6. After bottoming out below the $83,000 level Friday, bitcoin rallied more than 4% over the weekend, and was approaching the $88,000 level Sunday night.

That may boost investor sentiment Monday, as bitcoin has, surprisingly, become a leading indicator for stocks in recent months.

With many investors taking an extended vacation before the Thanksgiving holiday Thursday, the upcoming week could see lighter, but potentially volatile, trading. All eyes will be on consumer spending as the holiday shopping season kicks off later this week with Black Friday sales.

With a dearth of economic reports due to the lingering effects of the U.S. government shutdown, any early indications of all-important retail sales data will be closely watched.

See: Why the stakes for stocks are so high in this short Thanksgiving trading week ahead

“With consumer sentiment weakening and the market starved for real-time signals, the mall becomes the macro,” Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, said in a weekend note. “This makes every sniff of holiday activity – foot traffic, discount depth, card authorizations – disproportionately important. In a data desert, even a puddle looks like a lake.”

After quarterly earnings reports by big-box retailers such as Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT) and Home Depot (HD) last week, this week will see results from another batch of retailers, including Kohl’s (KSS), Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS), Best Buy (BBY), Petco (WOOF) and Urban Outfitters (URBN).

More: Retailers try to downplay worries about lower-income shoppers, as bargains reign supreme

The stock market will be closed Thursday for Thanksgiving, and will have a shortened session Friday.

-Mike Murphy

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• The considerable ownership by individual investors in Catalyst Metals indicates that they collectively have a greater say in management and business strategy

• The top 25 shareholders own 39% of the company

• Insiders have sold recently

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If you want to know who really controls Catalyst Metals Limited (ASX:CYL), then you’ll have to look at the makeup of its share registry. We can see that individual investors own the lion’s share in the company with 59% ownership. Put another way, the group faces the maximum upside potential (or downside risk).

While the holdings of individual investors took a hit after last week’s 6.7% price drop, institutions with their 30% holdings also suffered.

In the chart below, we zoom in on the different ownership groups of Catalyst Metals.

View our latest analysis for Catalyst Metals

Institutional investors commonly compare their own returns to the returns of a commonly followed index. So they generally do consider buying larger companies that are included in the relevant benchmark index.

We can see that Catalyst Metals does have institutional investors; and they hold a good portion of the company’s stock. This suggests some credibility amongst professional investors. But we can’t rely on that fact alone since institutions make bad investments sometimes, just like everyone does. It is not uncommon to see a big share price drop if two large institutional investors try to sell out of a stock at the same time. So it is worth checking the past earnings trajectory of Catalyst Metals, (below). Of course, keep in mind that there are other factors to consider, too.

We note that hedge funds don’t have a meaningful investment in Catalyst Metals. Our data shows that State Street Global Advisors, Inc. is the largest shareholder with 5.1% of shares outstanding. For context, the second largest shareholder holds about 5.0% of the shares outstanding, followed by an ownership of 4.2% by the third-largest shareholder. Additionally, the company’s CEO James de Crespigny directly holds 1.4% of the total shares outstanding.

Our studies suggest that the top 25 shareholders collectively control less than half of the company’s shares, meaning that the company’s shares are widely disseminated and there is no dominant shareholder.

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