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U.S. stock futures gain ahead of Thanksgiving week – and the crucial holiday shopping season
By Mike Murphy

People shop inside Saks Fifth Avenue on Black Friday in New York City on Nov. 29, 2024. Investors will be keeping a close eye on upcoming retail data.

U.S. stock futures rose Sunday, in hopes of building on Friday’s rebound, as investors await the start of the critical holiday shopping season following a wild week on Wall Street.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM00) gained around 146 points, or 0.3%, late Sunday. S&P 500 futures (ES00) advanced 0.6% and Nasdaq-100 futures (NQ00) rose 0.8%. Crude futures (CL.1) fell, as did gold futures (GC00). The ICE U.S. Dollar Index DXY was little changed.

Stocks gained Friday, but were down sharply for the week. The tech-heavy Nasdaq COMP slid 2.7%, falling for a third straight week, while the Dow DJIA and S&P 500 SPX each dropped 1.9%. The tech sector has been beaten down amid growing worries of a potential bubble in artificial-intelligence stocks, and an upbeat earnings report from AI chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA) last Wednesday were not enough to relieve those fears.

Read more: Why the once-invincible Nvidia can’t save the AI trade

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) managed a weekend rally, though, after the leading cryptocurrency lost about a third of its value since hitting an all-time high price on Oct. 6. After bottoming out below the $83,000 level Friday, bitcoin rallied more than 4% over the weekend, and was approaching the $88,000 level Sunday night.

That may boost investor sentiment Monday, as bitcoin has, surprisingly, become a leading indicator for stocks in recent months.

With many investors taking an extended vacation before the Thanksgiving holiday Thursday, the upcoming week could see lighter, but potentially volatile, trading. All eyes will be on consumer spending as the holiday shopping season kicks off later this week with Black Friday sales.

With a dearth of economic reports due to the lingering effects of the U.S. government shutdown, any early indications of all-important retail sales data will be closely watched.

See: Why the stakes for stocks are so high in this short Thanksgiving trading week ahead

“With consumer sentiment weakening and the market starved for real-time signals, the mall becomes the macro,” Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, said in a weekend note. “This makes every sniff of holiday activity – foot traffic, discount depth, card authorizations – disproportionately important. In a data desert, even a puddle looks like a lake.”

After quarterly earnings reports by big-box retailers such as Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT) and Home Depot (HD) last week, this week will see results from another batch of retailers, including Kohl’s (KSS), Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS), Best Buy (BBY), Petco (WOOF) and Urban Outfitters (URBN).

More: Retailers try to downplay worries about lower-income shoppers, as bargains reign supreme

The stock market will be closed Thursday for Thanksgiving, and will have a shortened session Friday.

-Mike Murphy

This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
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November 24, 2025
Chris Hemsworth provides update on health, Alzheimer’s concerns

National Geographic’s new documentary, “Chris Hemsworth: A Road Trip to Remember,” opens with the “Thor” actor reflecting on a cherished childhood photo with his father in the Australian Outback.

In the image, Hemsworth’s dad, Craig…

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November 24, 2025
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KKR (NYSE:KKR) is making headlines with two significant moves: a new fundraising push for its fifth Asia-focused private equity fund and a fresh agreement with PayPal to buy up to €65 billion in European buy now, pay later loan receivables.

See our latest analysis for KKR.

Momentum around KKR has been mixed lately, with shares recently touching $118.67 after a string of notable developments, including a major new Asia fund initiative and a sweeping expansion of its credit footprint in Europe. Still, this year’s share price return has slipped, and the total shareholder return over the past twelve months sits at -24.8%. At the same time, KKR’s five-year total return remains a robust 220%, which shows that long-term investors have been well rewarded despite current volatility.

If KKR’s global expansion moves have you thinking bigger, now’s a great time to explore other opportunities and discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership

With so much capital flowing into new funds and fresh deals, is KKR’s current price an undervaluation of its potential? Or is the market already factoring in the next wave of global growth?

With KKR’s last closing price at $118.67 and the narrative marking fair value at $157.14, there is a significant gap that calls attention to the underlying story powering this outlook.

Strong and accelerating fundraising momentum across asset classes, especially with institutional investors and the fast-growing private wealth and retail segment, are expanding fee-paying AUM and supporting double-digit management fee growth. There is further upside from new distribution initiatives such as the partnership with Capital Group and insurance third-party capital. This is likely to positively impact future revenue and management fees.

Read the complete narrative.

Beneath the surface, this narrative hints at blockbuster earnings growth and profit improvements that defy the recent dip. Curious what blockbuster assumption underpins that bold fair value? See what number justifies the gap.

Result: Fair Value of $157.14 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

However, rising competition and potential asset quality issues in private credit could quickly challenge the bullish outlook. This may make future earnings less predictable.

Find out about the key risks to this KKR narrative.

Looking from a different perspective, KKR’s price-to-earnings ratio stands at 46.6x, which is substantially higher than the US Capital Markets industry average of 23.6x, the peer average of 33.8x, and even the fair ratio of 27.6x. This elevated multiple means investors are paying a premium, adding a layer of risk if earnings growth does not meet high expectations. Could this rich valuation signal vulnerability if momentum wanes?