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Thank you, President Schmid, for the kind introduction and for the invitation to speak here today.1 It is an honor to be in Kansas City and in the beautiful 10th District. I welcome the opportunity to attend events like this one because I believe it is essential for Federal Reserve policymakers to share their views with the public and, just as important, to hear directly from business leaders, workers, and families about how they are experiencing the economy.
In many ways, the Kansas City region is a perfect place to make those connections. Sitting at the confluence of the Kansas and Missouri rivers, this area has been a place where people met and shared ideas long before the United States existed. And that tradition of making connections has continued to present day. The Pony Express was founded just north of here in St. Joseph, this is the greeting card capital, and, next year, this area will bring people together from around the globe for soccer’s World Cup. I am happy to have the opportunity to continue the tradition of making connections in Kansas City with all of you.
Today I would like to share my economic outlook. I will discuss how I see recent economic activity and talk about developments pertaining to both sides of our dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability. I will then offer my current view of monetary policy including the Fed’s balance sheet before turning to our discussion.
Economic Outlook
In shaping my economic outlook, I consider a wide variety of government, administrative, and private-sector data, including data collected by the Kansas City Fed and fellow Reserve Banks across the country. Casting a wide net for information on the economy is especially important at this moment because the recent federal government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic indicators that I typically refer to in speeches like this one, including the monthly jobs report and the personal consumption expenditures price index. While I consider federal data to be the gold standard, other sources of information are also available for policymakers to do our jobs. And part of that information comes from meetings like this one and hearing from contacts around the country. For example, ahead of our next policy meeting, I look forward to reviewing the Beige Book, a report on economic conditions in each of the twelve Reserve Bank districts, which will be released next week.
Economic Activity
Before the government shutdown, available data indicated that the U.S. economy was on a trajectory of moderate growth this year. The shutdown has likely curtailed economic activity this quarter, reflecting furloughed federal workers and the suspension of government purchases of goods and services, including payments to contractors. There may also have been spillover effects to the private sector stemming from delays in federal payments, approvals, and other government activity. I see those effects as largely temporary and likely to reverse in the coming months. Thinking more broadly, I see the balance of risks in the economy as having shifted in recent months with increased downside risks to employment compared to the upside risks to inflation, which have likely declined somewhat recently.
Labor market
In the labor market, information available in recent weeks appears to be consistent with a gradual cooling in both labor demand and labor supply. For instance, unemployment insurance claims received from states have largely moved sideways in recent weeks. Anecdotal reports about the state of the labor market have been mixed, with some firms announcing a slower pace of hiring or cutbacks and others indicating they are ready to move forward with previously delayed hiring and investment.
I expect that the unemployment rate is likely to inch up slightly by the end of the year from the relatively low 4.3 percent rate recorded in August. While still solid, I continue to view the risk to my employment forecast as skewed to the downside.
Inflation
The latest available readings show that inflation is running at a rate similar to that of a year ago, a bit below 3 percent, indicating that progress toward our 2 percent target has stalled. This lack of progress appears to be due to tariff effects, with signs that inflation excluding the effects of tariffs may be continuing to make progress toward 2 percent. Some firms have indicated that they expect pass-through of pricing pressure from tariffs to pick up in the fourth quarter as the inventory of non-tariffed merchandise is depleted.
A reasonable base case is that tariffs result in a one-time shift in the price level, not an ongoing inflation problem. That view is reinforced by inflation expectations readings. Most measures of near-term inflation expectations have retraced their spring rise, and market-based long-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored. Several factors will influence the size and persistence of the rise in inflation. Those include the final tariff rates that are implemented, the extent and timing of pass-through to consumer prices, the reaction of supply chains and domestic manufacturing, and overall economic conditions. I will continue to monitor these factors closely. I remain firmly committed to returning inflation to the Fed’s 2 percent target.
Monetary Policy
Given that outlook, I supported last month’s decision to reduce our policy rate by 1/4 percentage point. That step was appropriate because I see the balance of risks as having shifted in recent months as downside risks to employment have increased. The current policy stance is still somewhat restrictive, but we have moved it closer to its neutral level that neither restricts nor stimulates the economy. The evolving balance of risks underscores the need to proceed slowly as we approach the neutral rate.
At our past Federal Open Market Committee meeting, I also supported the decision to conclude the reduction of our aggregate securities holdings as of December 1. Over the course of balance sheet runoff that started in June 2022, we shrank our securities holdings by about $2.2 trillion. The Committee’s long-stated plan had been to stop balance sheet runoff when reserves were somewhat above the level judged as consistent with ample reserve conditions. Signs emerged ahead of the October meeting indicating that such a standard had been reached. In money markets, repurchase agreement (repo) rates moved up persistently relative to the interest on reserve balances (IORB) rate. In addition, more notable pressures on repo rates started to emerge on tax payment dates and on Treasury issuance days along with more frequent use of our standing repo facility. With repo rates trending up, the effective federal funds rate also began to move up steadily relative to the IORB rate. Those developments were what was expected to be seen as the size of the balance sheet declined and led me to support the decision to end runoff.
Starting in December, we intend to hold the size of our balance sheet steady for a time as reserve balances continue to decline passively even as other non-reserve liabilities, such as currency, rise. We will continue to allow agency securities to run off our balance sheet and will reinvest these proceeds in Treasury bills, furthering progress toward a portfolio consisting primarily of Treasury securities. Over the coming years, this reinvestment strategy will help move the weighted average maturity of our portfolio closer to that of the outstanding stock of Treasury securities.
I will also note that, heading into our next meeting, it remains unclear how much official data we will see before then. With respect to the path of the policy rate going forward, I will continue to determine policy based on the incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. I always take a meeting-by-meeting approach. This is an especially prudent approach at this time.
Thank you again to the Kansas City Fed for hosting me today. I look forward to our discussion.
1. The views expressed here are my own and are not necessarily those of my colleagues on the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee. Return to text
(Reuters) -Amazon is looking to raise about $12 billion from the corporate bond market in its first such deal in U.S. dollars in about three years, Bloomberg News reported on Monday, citing people familiar with the matter.
The e-commerce giant filed for a six-part bond sale earlier in the day without disclosing a size, a regulatory filing showed.
Amazon did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.
As artificial intelligence workloads grow in scale, big technology firms are turning to large-scale debt sales to fund expansion plans that cost tens of billions of dollars.
Last month, Meta Platforms announced its biggest bond sale of up to $30 billion, while cloud infrastructure and software maker Oracle is also reportedly looking to raise $15 billion in bond sales.
(Reporting by Harshita Mary Varghese in Bengaluru; Editing by Maju Samuel)
Shares in WPP have risen sharply amid speculation that the advertising group could be the subject of a takeover by a rival or a private equity buyer.
Its French rival Havas, which was listed on Euronext in Amsterdam in December and is controlled by the billionaire Vincent Bolloré, has reportedly held internal talks about a potential bid as WPP’s share price languishes at levels not seen since the mid-1990s.
The company’s shares rose as much as 6% on Monday, making it the biggest riser on the FTSE, after the Sunday Times report, which also suggested private equity groups Apollo and KKR had held internal discussions about certain WPP assets.
However, Apollo has ruled out making a bid. KKR, which last year acquired WPP’s PR operation FGS Global, declined to comment.
Havas, the smallest of the global advertising holding companies, has previously hoped to build scale, particularly in relation to its media buying and selling capability.
Over a number of years Bolloré built up a stake in the UK media buying firm Aegis, and attempted to get seats on the board, but the Japanese advertising group Dentsu paid £3.2bn to buy the company in 2012.
One source suggested Havas could look to follow a similar strategy with WPP, building a stake before demanding a board seat.
Havas declined to comment.
WPP, which has issued a string of profit warnings amid a client exodus and is struggling to compete with the artificial intelligence and data capabilities of its rivals, is now valued at about £3bn.
The business’s market capitalisation has fallen by more than 80% over the past eight years – it was valued at £25bn in 2017 – which has left WPP at risk of falling out of the FTSE 100 index it joined almost three decades ago.
Last month, Cindy Rose, the newly installed WPP chief executive, launched a review of the business after reporting a fresh profit warning.
Earlier this year Accenture, the US consultancy group that has built up a large advertising business, reportedly held talks with WPP over a potential deal or partnership.
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WPP Media, which manages more than $60bn (£46bn) of global media investment in campaigns for clients, is considered by analysts to be the most valuable part of WPP.
The division has been the revenue and profit driver as other operations such as WPP’s creative agencies have struggled. It is considered to be worth more than the approximate £7.5bn enterprise value of WPP, which includes its debt.
France’s Publicis Groupe, which took WPP’s crown as the biggest ad group in the world by revenue last year, would face considerable regulatory challenges if it was to target WPP.
The speculation surrounding the future of WPP comes as a wave of consolidation sweeps through the global advertising market.
The US group Omnicom is in the midst of closing out a $13.5bn takeover of its rival IPG, which will create the largest advertising holding company in the world.
Dentsu, the world’s fifth largest ad group, is exploring a sale of all of its international businesses.
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A British man who hacked high profile Twitter – now known as X – accounts as part of a Bitcoin scam has been ordered to hand over £4.1m in stolen cryptocurrency.
Joseph O’Connor, from Liverpool, hijacked more than 130 accounts in July 2020, including those of Barack Obama, Joe Biden and Elon Musk.
The 26-year-old fled to Spain where his mother lives before being arrested and extradited to the US for trial.
He was sentenced to five years for cyber crimes but now must hand over a haul of crypto he gathered through various hacks and scams.
O’Connor, who went by the alias PlugwalkJoe, carried out the so-called “giveaway scam” with other young men and teenagers – breaking into Twitter’s internal systems and taking over high profile accounts.
Three other hackers have been charged over the scam, with US teenager Graham Clark pleading guilty to his part in the deception in 2021.
The hackers gained access to the accounts by first convincing a small number of Twitter employees to hand over their internal login details – which eventually granted them access to the social media site’s administrative tools.
They used social engineering tricks to get access to the powerful internal control panel at the site.
Once inside the Twitter accounts of famous individuals, they pretended to be the celebrities and tweeted asking followers to send Bitcoin to various digital wallets promising to double their money.
As a result of the fraud, an estimated 350 million Twitter users viewed suspicious tweets from official accounts of some of the platform’s biggest users, including Apple, Uber, Kanye West and Bill Gates.
Thousands were duped into believing that a crypto giveaway was real.
Between 15 and 16 July 2020, 426 transfers were made to the scammers of various amounts from people hoping to double their money.
A total of over 12.86 BTC was stolen which at the time was worth around $110,000 (£83,500). It is now worth $1.2m.
The UK’s Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) said investigators believed more crypto linked to O’Connor was obtained through criminal hacks he carried out with other teenagers and young people he met whilst playing Call of Duty online.
The CPS has recovered 42 Bitcoin and other digital currency in total from him.
Adrian Foster, Chief Crown Prosecutor for the CPS Proceeds of Crime Division, said O’Connor “targeted well known individuals and used their accounts to scam people out of their crypto assets and money”.
“Even when someone is not convicted in the UK, we are still able to ensure they do not benefit from their criminality,” he said.
