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These days it’s easy to simply buy an index fund, and your returns should (roughly) match the market. But you can significantly boost your returns by picking above-average stocks. For example, the Basilea Pharmaceutica AG (VTX:BSLN) share price is up 17% in the last 1 year, clearly besting the market return of around 7.6% (not including dividends). If it can keep that out-performance up over the long term, investors will do very well! Zooming out, the stock is actually down 1.8% in the last three years.

Let’s take a look at the underlying fundamentals over the longer term, and see if they’ve been consistent with shareholders returns.

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To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it’s a weighing machine. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

Basilea Pharmaceutica went from making a loss to reporting a profit, in the last year.

When a company is just on the edge of profitability it can be well worth considering other metrics in order to more precisely gauge growth (and therefore understand share price movements).

However the year on year revenue growth of 59% would help. Many businesses do go through a phase where they have to forgo some profits to drive business development, and sometimes its for the best.

The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

We know that Basilea Pharmaceutica has improved its bottom line over the last three years, but what does the future have in store? If you are thinking of buying or selling Basilea Pharmaceutica stock, you should check out this FREE detailed report on its balance sheet.

It’s good to see that Basilea Pharmaceutica has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 17% in the last twelve months. That certainly beats the loss of about 1.1% per year over the last half decade. We generally put more weight on the long term performance over the short term, but the recent improvement could hint at a (positive) inflection point within the business. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Even so, be aware that Basilea Pharmaceutica is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about…

For those who like to find winning investments this free list of undervalued companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Swiss exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

The quarterly results for Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft (ETR:HLAG) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. Results overall were not great, with earnings of €0.77 per share falling drastically short of analyst expectations. Meanwhile revenues hit €4.7b and were slightly better than forecasts. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there’s been a strong change in the company’s prospects, or if it’s business as usual. We’ve gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from ten analysts covering Hapag-Lloyd is for revenues of €16.8b in 2026. This implies a not inconsiderable 13% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to plunge 58% to €3.68 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €16.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of €3.69 in 2026. The consensus analysts don’t seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there’s been no major change to their estimates.

See our latest analysis for Hapag-Lloyd

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of €105, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Hapag-Lloyd, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €132 and the most bearish at €72.00 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock’s future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 11% by the end of 2026. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 1.8% over the last five years. Yet aggregate analyst estimates for other companies in the industry suggest that industry revenues are forecast to decline 0.6% per year. The forecasts do look bearish for Hapag-Lloyd, since they’re expecting it to shrink faster than the industry.

The most obvious conclusion is that there’s been no major change in the business’ prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. The consensus also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it is performing in line with expectations. Plus, our data suggests that Hapag-Lloyd is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €105, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company’s earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates – from multiple Hapag-Lloyd analysts – going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it’s still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We’ve identified 1 warning sign with Hapag-Lloyd , and understanding it should be part of your investment process.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.