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The quarterly results for Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft (ETR:HLAG) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. Results overall were not great, with earnings of €0.77 per share falling drastically short of analyst expectations. Meanwhile revenues hit €4.7b and were slightly better than forecasts. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there’s been a strong change in the company’s prospects, or if it’s business as usual. We’ve gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from ten analysts covering Hapag-Lloyd is for revenues of €16.8b in 2026. This implies a not inconsiderable 13% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to plunge 58% to €3.68 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €16.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of €3.69 in 2026. The consensus analysts don’t seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there’s been no major change to their estimates.

See our latest analysis for Hapag-Lloyd

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of €105, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Hapag-Lloyd, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €132 and the most bearish at €72.00 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock’s future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 11% by the end of 2026. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 1.8% over the last five years. Yet aggregate analyst estimates for other companies in the industry suggest that industry revenues are forecast to decline 0.6% per year. The forecasts do look bearish for Hapag-Lloyd, since they’re expecting it to shrink faster than the industry.

The most obvious conclusion is that there’s been no major change in the business’ prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. The consensus also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it is performing in line with expectations. Plus, our data suggests that Hapag-Lloyd is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €105, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company’s earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates – from multiple Hapag-Lloyd analysts – going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it’s still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We’ve identified 1 warning sign with Hapag-Lloyd , and understanding it should be part of your investment process.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

One simple way to benefit from the stock market is to buy an index fund. But if you choose individual stocks with prowess, you can make superior returns. For example, BVZ Holding AG (VTX:BVZN) shareholders have seen the share price rise 46% over three years, well in excess of the market return (9.5%, not including dividends). On the other hand, the returns haven’t been quite so good recently, with shareholders up just 21%, including dividends.

So let’s investigate and see if the longer term performance of the company has been in line with the underlying business’ progress.

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While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company’s share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

BVZ Holding was able to grow its EPS at 29% per year over three years, sending the share price higher. This EPS growth is higher than the 13% average annual increase in the share price. Therefore, it seems the market has moderated its expectations for growth, somewhat. We’d venture the lowish P/E ratio of 8.33 also reflects the negative sentiment around the stock.

The company’s earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

Dive deeper into BVZ Holding’s key metrics by checking this interactive graph of BVZ Holding’s earnings, revenue and cash flow.

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of BVZ Holding, it has a TSR of 54% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

It’s good to see that BVZ Holding has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 21% in the last twelve months. And that does include the dividend. Since the one-year TSR is better than the five-year TSR (the latter coming in at 6% per year), it would seem that the stock’s performance has improved in recent times. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Case in point: We’ve spotted 1 warning sign for BVZ Holding you should be aware of.

If you would prefer to check out another company — one with potentially superior financials — then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Swiss exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.