Author: admin

• Curious whether MP Materials stock is actually a bargain right now? You are not alone. With so much buzz around this company, it pays to dig deeper before making any moves.

• MP Materials’ share price is up an eye-catching 257.8% so far this year and an impressive 220.8% over the last 12 months, even after a sharp 27.4% pullback in the past month.

• Big headlines recently have focused on MP Materials’ strategic role in the global rare earth supply chain. Government initiatives and trade discussions have put a spotlight on American rare earth production, fueling both investor excitement and debate about future risks.

• When we run MP Materials through our quick valuation checks, it scores just 1 out of 6 for being undervalued. Next, we will look at what these different valuation methods reveal, but hang around until the end for a smarter way to interpret the numbers.

MP Materials scores just 1/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

A Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model estimates what a company is worth today by projecting the business’s future cash flows and discounting those amounts back to their present value. This method aims to find the intrinsic value using cash flow projections and analysts’ outlook.

Looking at MP Materials, its latest reported Free Cash Flow is negative, at approximately $-294.5 million. Analysts project a notable turnaround ahead, forecasting Free Cash Flow to climb to about $53.3 million by 2027. For the following years, projections continue to surge, eventually reaching over $599 million in 2035, with most of these longer-term figures derived from Simply Wall St’s extrapolations beyond analyst coverage.

After crunching the numbers using this two-stage DCF approach, MP Materials’ intrinsic value comes out to $41.31 per share. However, when compared to its current share price, the DCF indicates the stock is around 41.9% overvalued.

This suggests that investor enthusiasm may be well ahead of the modeled financial reality.

Result: OVERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests MP Materials may be overvalued by 41.9%. Discover 885 undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for MP Materials.

For companies that are not yet consistently profitable, Price-to-Sales (P/S) is often the go-to valuation multiple. It helps investors assess how the market values each dollar of revenue. This is a sensible approach for growth-stage firms with limited or negative earnings.

However, a “fair” P/S multiple is not the same for every business. Companies with higher growth potential and lower risk generally deserve a higher P/S, while more mature or riskier firms tend to see lower valuations. That is why it is critical to benchmark any number against both industry norms and factors unique to the company.

Currently, MP Materials trades at a lofty 44.65x P/S, vastly exceeding the Metals and Mining industry average of just 2.59x and its peer average of 0.70x. Superficially, this suggests that MP is priced far above its sector, possibly implying stretched expectations or unique business qualities.

This is where the Simply Wall St “Fair Ratio” comes in. The Fair Ratio for MP Materials is 2.54x, reflecting a proprietary model that weighs factors like future growth, profit margin, industry dynamics, company size, and risk. By adjusting for these elements, the Fair Ratio provides a more tailored benchmark than relying solely on peer or industry figures.

With MP Materials’ actual P/S of 44.65x towering over its Fair Ratio of 2.54x, the stock appears richly valued even after considering all its growth prospects and risks.

Result: OVERVALUED

PS ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1411 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Earlier, we mentioned an even better way to interpret valuations. Let us introduce you to Narratives, a smarter tool designed to help you make sense of a company’s story and numbers together.

A Narrative is simply your perspective: it is the story you believe about a company’s future, tied directly to your own forecasts of revenue, earnings, and margins, and ultimately to what you think is a fair value for the stock.

Narratives transform abstract financial models into easy-to-understand scenarios by connecting the dots between what is happening in the real world and what that means for a company’s growth prospects and share price potential.

This means you do not need to be a professional analyst. On Simply Wall St’s Community page, you can create, compare, and update Narratives using tools already trusted by millions of investors.

Narratives evolve as new information is released, like news or earnings, keeping your view as up-to-date as the market itself.

For MP Materials, one investor’s Narrative might focus on optimistic government contracts and forecast a fair value as high as $85, while another might stress risks from customer concentration or regulation and set their fair value closer to $65. This shows how your own story, not just the numbers, can drive investing decisions.

Do you think there’s more to the story for MP Materials? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include MP.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

• The AES Corporation recently reported positive third quarter 2025 earnings, with revenue rising to US$3.35 billion and net income increasing to US$639 million year-over-year.

• Alongside these results, AES reaffirmed plans to return over US$500 million in dividends this year while actively expanding its renewables portfolio through new power purchase agreements.

• We’ll explore how AES’s strong quarterly earnings and renewed commitment to dividend returns could influence its investment outlook.

Rare earth metals are the new gold rush. Find out which 37 stocks are leading the charge.

To be an AES shareholder, you need to believe in the company’s ability to translate its expanding renewables pipeline and robust power purchase agreements into sustained earnings and dividend growth, even as it contends with ongoing capital needs and regulatory uncertainties. The latest earnings reveal steady quarterly improvement, but near-term catalysts such as signing new PPAs remain most important, while no new share buybacks or materially adverse news shifts the core balance of risk and reward right now.

Among recent updates, confirmation of AES’s continued multi-year PPA signings, like the agreements with major data center customers, is highly relevant. These contracts give greater near-term visibility on revenue and cash flows, helping support the company’s investment and dividend commitments as it manages large capital investments and seeks to offset lower regulatory support for renewables expected after 2027.

In contrast, investors should be aware that while renewable project momentum looks strong, AES’s heavy reliance on U.S. tax credits and policy incentives leaves it exposed if future political or legislative winds shift…

Read the full narrative on AES (it’s free!)

AES’ outlook anticipates $12.0 billion in revenue and $1.7 billion in earnings by 2028. This assumes a 0.0% annual revenue growth rate and an $781 million increase in earnings from the current level of $919.0 million.

Uncover how AES’ forecasts yield a $15.21 fair value, a 10% upside to its current price.

Fourteen members of the Simply Wall St Community value AES stock between US$6.93 and US$21.95, reflecting divergent outlooks. Projected PPA growth supports optimism, yet debate continues over policy risk and long-term margin resilience, see how your own outlook compares.

Explore 14 other fair value estimates on AES – why the stock might be worth 50% less than the current price!

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes – extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

Opportunities like this don’t last. These are today’s most promising picks. Check them out now:

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include AES.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

Vivian Chinoda ’25, Alice Hall, Sofia Lara, and Sophia Wang ’24 have been selected as 2026 Rhodes Scholars and will begin fully funded postgraduate studies at the University of Oxford in the U.K. next fall. Hall, Lara, and Wang, are U.S. Rhodes Scholars; Chinoda was awarded the Rhodes Zimbabwe Scholarship.

The scholars were supported by Associate Dean Kim Benard and the Distinguished Fellowships team in Career Advising and Professional Development. They received additional mentorship and guidance from the Presidential Committee on Distinguished Fellowships.

“MIT students never cease to amaze us with their creativity, vision, and dedication,” says Professor Taylor Perron, who co-chairs the committee along with Professor Nancy Kanwisher. “This is especially true of this year’s Rhodes scholars. It’s remarkable how they are simultaneously so talented in their respective fields and so adept at communicating their goals to the world. I look forward to seeing how these outstanding young leaders shape the future. It’s an honor to work with such talented students.”

Vivian Chinoda ’25

Vivian Chinoda, from Harare, Zimbabwe, was named a Rhodes Zimbabwe Scholar on Oct. 10. Chinoda graduated this spring with a BS in business analytics. At Oxford, she hopes to pursue the MSc in social data science and a master’s degree in public policy.  Chinoda aims to foster economic development and equitable resource access for Zimbabwean communities by promoting social innovation and evidence-based policy.

At MIT, Chinoda researched the impacts of the EU’s General Data Protection Regulation on stakeholders and key indicators, such as innovation, with the Institute for Data, Systems, and Society. She supported the Digital Humanities Lab and MIT Ukraine in building a platform to connect and fundraise for exiled Ukrainian scientists. With the MIT Office of Sustainability, Chinoda co-led the plan for a campus transition to a fully electric vehicle fleet, advancing the Institute’s Climate Action Plan.

Chinoda’s professional experience includes roles as a data science and research intern at Adaviv (a controlled-environment agriculture startup) and a product manager at Red Hat, developing AI tools for open-source developers.

Beyond academics, Chinoda served as first-year outreach chair and vice president of the African Students’ Association, where she co-founded the Impact Fund, raising over $30,000 to help members launch social impact initiatives in their countries. She was a scholar in the Social and Ethical Responsibilities of Computing (SERC) program, studying big-data ethics across sectors like criminal justice and health care, and a PKG social impact internship participant. Chinoda also enjoys fashion design, which she channeled into reviving the MIT Black Theatre Guild, earning her the 2025 Laya and Jerome B. Wiesner Student Art Award.

Alice Hall

Alice Hall is a senior from Philadelphia studying chemical engineering with a minor in Spanish. At Oxford, she will earn a DPhil in engineering, focusing on scaling sustainable heating and cooling technologies. She is passionate about bridging technology, leadership, and community to address the climate crisis.

Hall’s research journey began in the Lienhard Group, developing computational and techno-economic models of electrodialysis for nutrient reclamation from brackish groundwater. She then worked in the Langer Lab, investigating alveolar-capillary barrier function to enhance lung viability for transplantation. During a summer in Madrid, she collaborated with the European Space Agency to optimize surface treatments for satellite materials.

Hall’s current research in the Olivetti Group, as part of the MIT Climate Project, examines the manufacturing scalability of early-stage clean energy solutions. Hall has gained industry experience through internships with Johnson and Johnson and Procter and Gamble.

Hall represents the student body as president of MIT’s Undergraduate Association. She also serves on the Presidential Advisory Cabinet, the executive boards of the Chemical Engineering Undergraduate Student Advisory Board and MIT’s chapter of the American Institute of Chemical Engineers, the Corporation Joint Advisory Committee, the Compton Lectures Advisory Committee, and the MIT Alumni Association Board of Directors as an invited guest.

She is an active member of the Gordon-MIT Engineering Leadership Program, the Black Students’ Union, and the National Society of Black Engineers. As a member of the varsity basketball team, she earned both NEWMAC and D3hoops.com Region 2 Rookie of the Year honors in 2023.

Sofia Lara

Hailing from Los Angeles, Sofia Lara is a senior majoring in biological engineering with a minor in Spanish. As a Rhodes Scholar at Oxford, she will pursue a DPhil in clinical medicine, leveraging UK biobank data to develop sex-stratified dosing protocols and safety guidelines for the NHS.

Lara aspires to transform biological complexity from medicine’s blind spots into a therapeutic superpower where variability reveals hidden possibilities and precision medicine becomes truly precise.

At the Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Lara investigates the cGAS-STING immune pathway in cancer. Her thesis, a comprehensive genome-wide association study illuminating the role of STING variation in disease pathology, aims to expand understanding of STING-linked immune disorders.

Lara co-founded the MIT-Harvard Future of Biology Conference, convening multidisciplinary researchers to interrogate vulnerabilities in cancer biology. As president of MIT Baker House, she steered community initiatives and executed the legendary Piano Drop, mobilizing hundreds of students in an enduring ritual of collective resilience. Lara captains the MIT Archery Team, serves as music director for MIT Catholic Community, and channels empathy through hand-stitched crocheted octopuses for pediatric patients at the Massachusetts General Hospital.

Sophia Wang ’24

Sophia Wang, from Woodbridge, Connecticut, graduated with a BS in aerospace engineering and a concentration in the design of highly autonomous systems. At Oxford, she will pursue an MSc in mathematical and theoretical physics, followed by an MSc in global governance and diplomacy.

As an undergraduate, Wang conducted research with the MIT Space Telecommunications Astronomy Radiation (STAR) Lab and the MIT Media Lab’s Tangible Media Group and Center for Bits and Atoms. She also interned at the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, working on engineering projects for exoplanet detection missions, the Mars Sample Return mission, and terrestrial proofs-of-concept for self-assembly in space.

Since graduating from MIT, Wang has been engaged in a number of projects. In Bhutan, she contributes to national technology policy centered on mindful development. In Japan, she is a founding researcher at the Henkaku Center, where she is creating an international network of academic institutions. As a venture capitalist, she recently worked with commercial space stations on the effort to replace the International Space Station, which will decommission in 2030. Wang’s creative prototyping tools, such as a modular electromechanical construction kit, are used worldwide through the Fab Foundation, a network of 2,500+ community digital fabrication labs.

An avid cook, Wang created with friends Mince, a pop-up restaurant that serves fine-dining meals to MIT students. Through MIT Global Teaching Labs, Wang taught STEM courses in Kazakhstan and Germany, and she taught digital fabrication and 3D printing workshops across the U.S. as a teacher and cyclist with MIT Spokes. 

Artificial intelligence reached a tipping point in 2025, as tech titans poured billions into the technology to stay relevant — and if you think that sounds alarmingly similar to the run-up to previous economic bubbles, a legend in the world of capital does, too.

Michael Burry is famous for one thing: accurately predicting the 2008 housing crisis and subprime mortgage crash.

Burry’s uncanny foresight and perseverance, as the world’s bankers laughed his warnings off, were the basis for the 2015 comedy/thriller The Big Short, a riveting film that chronicled the technicalities of the crash in a manner accessible to general audiences.

When Wall Street was eventually rocked by the housing collapse, Burry’s prognostication skills were painfully validated — and as Fortune reported, his view of AI futures could rattle investors.

According to CNN, Burry’s Scion Asset Management fund placed bets that share prices will drop for two AI companies, noting it “bought roughly $187.6 million in puts on Nvidia and $912 million in puts on Palantir.”

Warren Buffett, who recently published a final letter to investors, earned the honorific “the Oracle of Omaha” for his ability to read market signals.

Buffett bestowed an unsettling but similar nickname upon Burry: “Cassandra,” after the Greek goddess cursed to accurately prophesy the future, but to never be believed. To say Burry’s insights are valued is an understatement, and his predictions regarding AI are unnerving.

On X, Burry goes by the name Cassandra Unchained (@michaeljburry) and has a habit of deleting all of his tweets. On Nov. 10, Burry tweeted in technical terms about the fundamentals of many publicly traded companies with extensive AI investments, sending the sector reeling.

“Understating depreciation by extending useful life of assets artificially boosts earnings — one of the more common frauds of the modern era,” his post began.

Although Burry’s phrasing could be described as inside baseball, his assertion was straightforward. He maintained that several of the biggest tech tickers used accounting tricks to deceptively defer losses, conceal poor performance, and boost earnings.

As Fortune noted, the declaration carried weight in part because Burry concurrently decommissioned his own firm, Scion Asset Management. Concerns about an AI bubble were not exclusive to Burry, but his track record ensured investors listened.

Potential economic devastation is a major concern regarding AI, but it’s not the only one. In addition to substantiated worries about user safety, AI data centers have been identified as a major contributor to skyrocketing electric bills nationwide.

AI’s general environmental impact is another massive problem, in part because firms like OpenAI have refused to make that information public.

Nevertheless, the fact that AI data centers consume immense amounts of electricity and water is independently verifiable, as is the pollution they cause.

Incidentally, the end credits of The Big Short alluded to Burry’s singular investing focus following the housing crash.

“The small investing [Burry] still does is all focused on one commodity: water.”

Join TCD’s exclusive Rewards Club to earn up to $5,000 toward clean upgrades that will help you slash your bills and future-proof your home.