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(Bloomberg) — Some of the year’s most popular emerging-market trades such as betting on the Brazilian real and stocks linked to artificial intelligence are becoming a source of concern as money managers warn of risks from overcrowding.

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Wells Fargo Securities sees valuations for Latin American currencies — among 2025’s top carry trade performers — as detached from fundamentals. Fidelity International is concerned about less liquid markets in Africa that it sees at risk should global volatility spike. Lazard Asset Management meanwhile is keeping its guard up after early November’s firesale in Asian tech stocks — the worst since April.

“Investors are too complacent on emerging markets,” said Brendan McKenna, an emerging-market economist and FX strategist at Wells Fargo in New York. “FX valuations, for most if not all, are stretched and not capturing a lot of the risks hovering over markets. They can continue to perform well in the near-term, but I do feel a correction will be unavoidable.”

Such caution isn’t without reason. Many parts of the developing-markets universe look overheated after a heady cocktail of Federal Reserve rate cuts, a softer dollar and an AI boom drove stellar gains. The very flows that propelled the rally are now posing the risk of sudden drawdowns that have the potential to ripple through global sentiment and tighten liquidity across asset classes.

A quarterly HSBC Holdings Plc survey of 100 investors representing a total $423 billion of developing-nation assets showed in September that 61% of them had a net overweight position in local-currency EM bonds, up from minus 15% in June. A Bloomberg gauge of the debt is on track for its best returns in six years.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index of stocks has risen each month this year through October — the longest run in over two decades. Up almost 30%, the gauge is headed for its best annual gain since 2017, when it rallied 34%. That was followed by a 17% slump in 2018 when a more hawkish than expected Fed, a US-China trade war and a surging dollar took the wind out of overcrowded EM stocks as well as popular carry — in which traders borrow in lower-yielding currencies to buy those that offer higher yields — and local-bond trades.

“As we approach year-end, there is a risk that some investors look to take profits on what has been a successful trade in 2025 and that this leads to a rise in volatility in FX markets,” Anthony Kettle, senior portfolio manager at RBC BlueBay Asset Management in London, said in reference to local-currency bonds.

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WildBrain Ltd. (TSE:WILD) last week reported its latest quarterly results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. Revenues were in line with expectations, at CA$126m, while statutory losses ballooned to CA$0.15 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company’s performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there’s been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we’ve aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on WildBrain after the latest results.

We’ve found 21 US stocks that are forecast to pay a dividend yield of over 6% next year. See the full list for free.

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from WildBrain’s four analysts is for revenues of CA$570.7m in 2026. This reflects a reasonable 6.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. WildBrain is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of CA$0.023 per share. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of CA$564.9m and CA$0.01 per share in losses. While there’s been no material change to the revenue estimates, there’s been a pretty clear upgrade to earnings estimates, with the analysts expecting a per-share profit compared to previous expectations of a loss. So it seems like the latest results have led to a significant increase in sentiment for WildBrain.

View our latest analysis for WildBrain

There’s been no major changes to the consensus price target of CA$2.34, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock’s valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic WildBrain analyst has a price target of CA$3.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CA$1.60. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await WildBrain shareholders.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It’s clear from the latest estimates that WildBrain’s rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 8.2% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 2.6% p.a. over the past five years. Other similar companies in the industry (with analyst coverage) are also forecast to grow their revenue at 9.9% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it’s pretty clear that WildBrain is expected to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts now expect WildBrain to become profitable next year, compared to previous expectations that it would report a loss. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates – from multiple WildBrain analysts – going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don’t want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for WildBrain that you need to be mindful of.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Global Ship Lease, Inc. (NYSE:GSL) is about to trade ex-dividend in the next 4 days. The ex-dividend date occurs one day before the record date, which is the day on which shareholders need to be on the company’s books in order to receive a dividend. The ex-dividend date is important as the process of settlement involves a full business day. So if you miss that date, you would not show up on the company’s books on the record date. Meaning, you will need to purchase Global Ship Lease’s shares before the 21st of November to receive the dividend, which will be paid on the 4th of December.

The company’s next dividend payment will be US$0.625 per share, on the back of last year when the company paid a total of US$2.50 to shareholders. Based on the last year’s worth of payments, Global Ship Lease stock has a trailing yield of around 7.2% on the current share price of US$34.51. We love seeing companies pay a dividend, but it’s also important to be sure that laying the golden eggs isn’t going to kill our golden goose! So we need to investigate whether Global Ship Lease can afford its dividend, and if the dividend could grow.

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Dividends are typically paid from company earnings. If a company pays more in dividends than it earned in profit, then the dividend could be unsustainable. Global Ship Lease has a low and conservative payout ratio of just 19% of its income after tax. Yet cash flows are even more important than profits for assessing a dividend, so we need to see if the company generated enough cash to pay its distribution. Over the last year it paid out 56% of its free cash flow as dividends, within the usual range for most companies.

It’s encouraging to see that the dividend is covered by both profit and cash flow. This generally suggests the dividend is sustainable, as long as earnings don’t drop precipitously.

Check out our latest analysis for Global Ship Lease

Click here to see the company’s payout ratio, plus analyst estimates of its future dividends.

Businesses with strong growth prospects usually make the best dividend payers, because it’s easier to grow dividends when earnings per share are improving. If business enters a downturn and the dividend is cut, the company could see its value fall precipitously. That’s why it’s comforting to see Global Ship Lease’s earnings have been skyrocketing, up 50% per annum for the past five years.

Another key way to measure a company’s dividend prospects is by measuring its historical rate of dividend growth. Global Ship Lease’s dividend payments per share have declined at 2.4% per year on average over the past 10 years, which is uninspiring. It’s unusual to see earnings per share increasing at the same time as dividends per share have been in decline. We’d hope it’s because the company is reinvesting heavily in its business, but it could also suggest business is lumpy.

From a dividend perspective, should investors buy or avoid Global Ship Lease? Earnings per share have grown at a nice rate in recent times and over the last year, Global Ship Lease paid out less than half its earnings and a bit over half its free cash flow. Global Ship Lease looks solid on this analysis overall, and we’d definitely consider investigating it more closely.

On that note, you’ll want to research what risks Global Ship Lease is facing. We’ve identified 2 warning signs with Global Ship Lease (at least 1 which is concerning), and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

Generally, we wouldn’t recommend just buying the first dividend stock you see. Here’s a curated list of interesting stocks that are strong dividend payers.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.