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Alibaba Group Holding (NYSE:BABA) shares have seen notable movement lately, as investors process recent developments and shifts in the broader market landscape. While no major event stands out this week, the company’s fundamentals remain in focus for long-term holders.
See our latest analysis for Alibaba Group Holding.
Alibaba’s share price has been through a volatile stretch lately, with a strong rally earlier this year giving way to some recent pullbacks. Even with the latest 7.3% dip over the past month, the stock still boasts an impressive 81% share price return year-to-date and a remarkable 101% total shareholder return over the past three years. This signals that momentum has been building despite short-term moves.
If Alibaba’s rebound has you rethinking where to look next, consider broadening your perspective and discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership
Given Alibaba’s sizeable rebound and the solid growth in both revenue and net income, investors are left to wonder: is the market undervaluing its future, or is all that growth already reflected in the price, leaving little room for upside?
According to StefanoF, Alibaba’s current share price of $153.80 is significantly higher than the narrative’s fair value estimate of $107.09. This substantial gap raises important questions about what investors are paying for and whether near-term optimism is justified at these levels.
While Alibaba shows strong operational momentum, particularly in AI and cloud services, the current stock price appears to fully reflect near-term growth prospects given macro headwinds and geopolitical risks.
Read the complete narrative.
Curious what ambitious assumptions drive this bold fair value? The narrative uses a detailed cash flow model and makes bets on future growth, profit margins, and sector leadership. Want to discover which key numbers and trends caused such a valuation gap? Uncover the specifics that set this analysis apart.
Result: Fair Value of $107.09 (OVERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, mounting US-China trade tensions and renewed regulatory pressures could challenge current optimism. These factors could quickly shift the market’s perception of Alibaba’s valuation.
Find out about the key risks to this Alibaba Group Holding narrative.
Looking at one of the most common approaches, Alibaba’s price-to-earnings ratio stands at 16.4x, which is well below its industry average of 20.5x, the peer average of 38.8x, and even the market’s fair ratio estimate of 27.4x. This suggests the market may not be fully pricing in Alibaba’s growth potential, or it could reflect lingering skepticism or perceived risks. Could this gap signal a bargain ahead, or is it a warning sign investors should heed?
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US retailers fear they will be short-changed by the demise of the penny, warning of new costs and potential legal liabilities.
Trade groups redoubled a campaign for legislative relief this week as Congress returned to Washington after the extended government shutdown and the last new copper penny was struck by the US Mint.
President Donald Trump ordered a halt to penny production earlier this year as a money-saving measure, as each coin cost nearly four times more to make than its face value.
The US followed other large economies in phasing out the smallest unit of physical currency as inflation eroded its value. Canada stopped making its penny in 2012, while Australia’s one-cent coin was discontinued in 1992.
But the US effort stands out for its speed: the Mint ended large-scale penny production in June and the Federal Reserve has already suspended distribution from a majority of its 165 coin hubs.
“When Canada did this, it took them three years,” said Austen Jensen of the Retail Industry Leaders Association, which represents the largest US store chains. “We are just moving at lightning speed, and it’s spreading much quicker than what anybody anticipated in the industry.”
The American Bankers Association, an industry lobby group, has written to the Fed requesting they reopen the closed coin terminal locations.
“In those areas [where coin hubs are closed], retailers that want pennies don’t have a source for them,” said ABA senior vice-president for payments Steve Kenneally.
Government officials have no plans to withdraw the 300bn pennies already in circulation. But retailers with dozens of stores each “have been out of pennies for quite a few weeks now”, said Dylan Jeon, senior director of government relations at the National Retail Federation.
Stores short of pennies have been posting signs to inform customers who pay in cash that their change will be rounded.
“If we owe them a penny in change, and can’t give them a penny, we’ll give them a nickel,” said Joel Rampoldt, chief executive of the US division of Lidl, the German grocery chain. But rounding has been “very stressful” for Lidl employees doing it “dozens, hundreds of times in a day”.
Rounding in favour of customers comes at a cost to retailers. Inside US convenience stores, where cash is used in about half of 125mn daily purchases, rounding down would lower industry sales by about $1.25mn a day as cash purchases require two pennies in change on average, according to the National Association of Convenience Stores.
Rounding up or down depending on the value of a purchase would spread the burden. An earlier analysis by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond estimated rounding to the nearest nickel would cost consumers about $6mn a year.
One option, according to the ABA’s Kenneally, is to follow the Canadian model where if the final amount ends in a one, two, six or seven cents, the retailer rounds down to the nearest nickel and if it ends in three, four, eight or nine the amount is rounded up.
Retail groups have been lobbying Congress for legal protection to round purchase values to the closest nickel. They say that at least 10 states and cities require exact change, putting customers paying with cash on equal footing with those using cards or apps. The declining supply of pennies makes that impossible, say the retailers.
Some states set minimum prices for certain items including milk and tobacco, said Jeff Lenard, a spokesman at the convenience store association. “If you round down, that would violate minimum pricing,” he said.
An equal treatment rule also applies to recipients of federal food subsidies under the $100bn Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program. Rounding in favour of cash customers would put these beneficiaries at a disadvantage, potentially forcing retailers to break government rules.
A lack of pennies could also complicate stores’ and banks’ ability to cash cheques, a common practice for lower-income households who lack bank accounts, the retail groups said.
Retail groups are hopeful that a bipartisan bill addressing these concerns will soon move through Congress now that the government shutdown is over.
But the uncertainty comes as their members gear up for the holiday shopping season.
“The biggest thing is that this is occurring right now during the craziest time of the year, the most important time of year, which is holiday,” said Jensen, senior executive vice-president of public affairs of RILA, whose members include Walmart, Target and TJX.
Some retailers are taking matters into their own hands to address the coin deficit. Supermarket chain Giant Eagle earlier this month enticed customers to turn over pennies and receive gift cards worth twice as much in return.
