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Arm Holdings (ARM) recently reported annual results, showing double-digit growth in both revenue and net income. The company’s latest earnings update gives investors more concrete insight into how demand for its chip designs is impacting the bottom line.

See our latest analysis for Arm Holdings.

Even with robust annual growth fueling optimism, Arm Holdings’ share price has taken a breather lately, slipping 18.1% over the last month but still maintaining a respectable 9.0% year-to-date share price return. Investors seem undecided whether current demand and momentum are enough to drive the next leg higher, but the company’s 8.6% total shareholder return over the past year hints that the big picture remains encouraging for those with patience.

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So is Arm Holdings offering a rare buying opportunity with its recent pullback, or has the market already factored in all of its anticipated growth, leaving little room for upside?

The current narrative from jaikhom pegs Arm Holdings’ intrinsic fair value at just half the prevailing share price, spotlighting a dramatic difference between market enthusiasm and fundamental estimates. Recent trading momentum and the gap to the fair value demand a closer look at what’s fueling price action.

Based on a forward earnings framework anchored to the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, the stock’s intrinsic fair value is estimated at $70 per share. Applying a prudent 20% discount to reflect interest rate risk and macro uncertainty yields a conservative, risk-adjusted target of $56. However, recent market action suggests investor sentiment has shifted decisively beyond fundamentals. With ARM now trading in the $120 to $140 range, its implied earnings yield has fallen below that of the 10-year Treasury, which is often seen as a hallmark of speculative enthusiasm.

Read the complete narrative.

Can you spot the surprising assumptions behind this eye-catching valuation gap? The forecast hinges on benchmarks that most investors ignore, plus a risk adjustment few consider. Wonder how macro forces shape this price target and the profit multiples underlying it? Uncover the bold logic and see what could be missing from the consensus view.

Result: Fair Value of $70 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

However, surprising earnings strength or a swift change in interest rates could quickly challenge this cautious valuation outlook.

Find out about the key risks to this Arm Holdings narrative.

Of course, if this perspective does not align with your own, you can always dig into the numbers yourself and craft a narrative from your findings in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Arm Holdings.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include ARM.

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