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In-brief analysis

Jan 22, 2026

In our January 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook, we forecast U.S. crude oil production next year will remain near the record 13.6 million barrels per day (b/d) produced in 2025 before decreasing 2% to 13.3 million b/d in 2027. If realized, a fall in annual U.S. crude oil production will mark the first since 2021.

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In-brief analysis

Jan 21, 2026

When military aircraft are retired, they live out their days in the sunbelt at the U.S. Air Force’s facility on Davis-Monthan Air Force Base in Arizona, otherwise known as the Boneyard.

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In-brief analysis

Jan 20, 2026

In our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, we forecast retail U.S. gasoline prices will be lower the next two years than in 2025, falling 6% in 2026 and then increasing 1% in 2027. Our gasoline price forecast generally follows a similar path as global crude oil prices, but decreasing U.S. refinery capacity this year may offset some of the effects of lower crude oil prices on gasoline, especially in the West Coast region.

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In-brief analysis

Jan 16, 2026

Electricity generation by the U.S. electric power sector totaled about 4,260 billion kilowatthours (BkWh) in 2025. In our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), we expect U.S. electricity generation will grow by 1.1% in 2026 and by 2.6% in 2027, when it reaches an annual total of 4,423 BkWh. The three main dispatchable sources of electricity generation (natural gas, coal, and nuclear) accounted for 75% of total generation in 2025, but we expect the share of generation from these sources will fall to about 72% in 2027. We expect the combined share of generation from solar power and wind power to rise from about 18% in 2025 to about 21% in 2027.

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In-brief analysis

Jan 14, 2026

We expect the U.S. benchmark natural gas spot price at the Henry Hub to decrease about 2% to just under $3.50 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2026 before rising sharply in 2027 to just under $4.60/MMBtu, according to our January Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). We expect the annual average Henry Hub price in 2026 to decrease slightly as annual supply growth keeps pace with demand growth over the year. However, in 2027, we forecast demand growth will rise faster than supply growth, driven mainly by more feed gas demand from U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facilities, reducing the natural gas in storage. We forecast annual average spot prices will decrease by 2% in 2026 and then increase by 33% in 2027.

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In-brief analysis

Jan 9, 2026

In 2025, the wholesale U.S. natural gas spot price at the national benchmark Henry Hub in Louisiana averaged $3.52 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), based on data from LSEG Data. The 2025 average Henry Hub natural gas spot price increased 56% from the 2024 annual average, which—when adjusted for inflation—was the lowest on record. On a daily basis, the Henry Hub natural gas spot price ranged from $2.65/MMBtu to $9.86/MMBtu, reflecting a narrower range of daily prices compared with the previous year.

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In-brief analysis

Jan 7, 2026

The U.S. retail price for regular grade gasoline averaged $3.10 per gallon (gal) in 2025, $0.21/gal less than in 2024. This year marks the third consecutive year of declining nominal retail gasoline prices, according to data from our Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update.

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In-brief analysis

Jan 5, 2026

Crude oil prices generally declined in 2025 with supplies in the global crude oil market exceeding demand. Crude oil inventory builds in China muted some of the price decline. Events such as Israel’s June 13 strikes on Iran and attacks between Russia and Ukraine targeting oil infrastructure periodically supported prices.

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In-brief analysis

Dec 22, 2025

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

Below is a list featuring some of our most popular and favorite articles from 2025. We will resume regular Today in Energy publications on January 5, 2026. Thanks for your continued readership of Today in Energy.

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In-brief analysis

Dec 19, 2025

Each month we publish estimates of key global oil market indicators that affect crude oil prices and movements in our Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Among the most important indicators for global crude oil markets are estimates of OPEC’s effective crude oil production capacity and surplus production capacity, as well as any disruptions to liquid fuels production. Low surplus production capacity among OPEC countries can put upward pressure on crude oil prices in the event of unplanned supply disruptions or strong growth in global oil demand.

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In-brief analysis

Dec 17, 2025

We forecast that global crude oil production will increase by 0.8 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2026, with supply from Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina accounting for 0.4 million b/d of the expected global growth forecast in our December Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Global crude oil production growth since 2023 has been driven by countries outside of OPEC+.

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In-brief analysis

Dec 15, 2025

Our estimates for residential energy expenditures this winter (November 2025 through March 2026) have increased since the publication of our initial Winter Fuels Outlook forecasts in mid-October. We now expect a colder winter, and our retail energy price forecasts have risen, especially for natural gas and propane.

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In-brief analysis

Dec 12, 2025

• In our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, we forecast U.S. crude oil production will average 13.5 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2026, about 100,000 b/d less than in 2025.
• This forecast decline in production follows four years of rising crude oil output.
• Production increased by 0.3 million b/d in 2024 and by 0.4 million b/d in 2025, mostly because of increased output in the Permian Basin in Texas and New Mexico.
• In 2026, we forecast modest production increases in Alaska, the Federal Gulf of America, and the Permian will be offset by declines in other parts of the United States.
• We forecast that the West Texas Intermediate crude oil price will average $65 per barrel (b) in 2025 and $51/b in 2026, both lower than the 2024 average of $77/b.

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In-brief analysis

Dec 10, 2025

Critical minerals, such as copper, cobalt, and silicon, are vital for energy technologies, but most critical minerals markets are less transparent than mature energy markets, such as crude oil or coal. Like other energy markets, many supply-side and demand-side factors influence pricing for these energy-relevant critical minerals, but critical minerals supply chains contain numerous data gaps.

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In-brief analysis

Dec 8, 2025

Higher average daily wholesale electricity prices between January and November 2025 may be improving the operational competitiveness of some natural gas- and coal-fired generators in the PJM Interconnection compared with the same period in 2024. PJM is the largest wholesale electricity market in the United States. The spark and dark spreads, common metrics for estimating the profitability of natural gas- and coal-fired electric generators, have both increased over the past two years.

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