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The annual migration of hundreds of thousands of Canadian “snowbirds” escaping freezing temperatures in their homeland and heading to warmer US states such as Florida for the duration of the winter could be about to become noticeably thinner.

Many have ditched plans to visit their southern neighbor and are looking to spend their valuable dollars elsewhere, largely put off by Donald Trump’s escalating economic war with Canada and strict new immigration rules that have created fear and confusion.

“There’s some resistance. There’s always someone calls in [from Canada] and says, ‘No, no more US! Before we were friends, and now enemies,’” said Richard Clavet, a Canadian originally from Quebec who has owned a motel and apartment rental business in Fort Lauderdale popular with snowbirds for more than three decades.

“Bookings have declined, our rates are a little lower to try to attract them. In March and April a lot of people kind of walked away from the deposits, which wasn’t so bad because we were able to rent the rooms to others.

“But in the summer, what was bad was they also didn’t book for the following year, and that hurt us financially.”

The boycott, which began last winter after Trump’s election to a second term as president and imposition of trade tariffs, appears to be gathering pace, according to research by the Travel Health Insurance Association of Canada. It promises to put a severe dent in the $20.5bn snowbirds traditionally pump into the US economy between late October and April.

The study found only 26% of Canadians intend to take a US vacation this winter, down from 41% last year, and of those 61 and older, only one in 10 plan to visit, compared to one in three a year ago.

Canada’s own tourism industry, meanwhile, is reporting record revenue. Buoyed by visitors who decided to stay home, the sector took in CA$59bn ($42bn) from May to August, a 6% increase on 2014. (American visitors to Canada dropped 1.7% during that same period.)

Business owners such as Clavet, and realtors in popular snowbird states such as Arizona, Florida, Texas and Hawaii are reporting significantly fewer rental bookings, and higher than usual numbers of Canadians seeking to offload second houses and condos.

More than half of Canadians with homes in the US – 54% – are considering selling in the next 12 months, with 62% of those citing the political situation as their main reason, according to research published in August.

While some blame a weak Canadian dollar and rising travel costs for their decision not to travel, 40% also cite political tensions with the US. Trump has frequently assailed Canada and its political leaders, recently retaliating for an anti-tariff advertisement posted by the Ontario government by slapping an additional 10% tariff on imports from a country he has repeatedly taunted as the 51st state.

Of equal concern to traveling Canadians, experts say, are a raft of invasive new immigration measures imposed by the Trump administration that have left many uncomfortable about crossing the border.

From December, all non-American visitors will be photographed on both their arrival and departure from the US. The move follows new enforcement this year of an obligation on Canadians visiting for longer than 30 days to register their presence and whereabouts with the US government.

Ryan Rachkovsky, director of research and communications at the Toronto-based Canadian Snowbird Association, said there was confusion over the registration policy, which he said was being enforced erratically at points of immigration.

Some members, he said, had been subjected to secondary screening, featuring the collection of biometric data including fingerprints and photographs, while others experienced smooth entries.

“There is so much inconsistency right now, based on the border officer that you get, based on the port of entry that you’re entering the US from, and because of that we’re providing our members with a warning and letting them know that this might be a possibility,” he said.

“Our message to snowbirds every year is: be prepared. This year, obviously people are going to be prepared in a different way.”

Rachkovsky said he believed the drop in travel by Canadians would be more by shorter-term vacationers than the estimated 900,000 snowbirds who traditionally spend up to the permitted six months in the US, but acknowledged many were uneasy about the political situation.

“The longer-term travelers, some of those individuals have made it clear to us they don’t want to travel to the US this coming season – but I would say the vast majority, particularly those that own homes in the US, will be making the trip this year as they always have,” he said.

“Economic and political headwinds are making the snowbird lifestyle more difficult,” he added. “In Florida, prices are going up, particularly for things like insurance coverage, and the Canadian dollar isn’t helping as well, so it’s a much more complex picture than just looking at it from a political standpoint.”

Analysts say any significant drop in snowbird visits could be catastrophic for states where they are among the biggest spenders during the winter months. The snowbird economy brings in an estimated $20.5bn annually in direct spending, property and sales taxes, and supports millions of jobs, especially in tourism, hospitality and retail.

The US Travel Association warned earlier this year that even a 10% drop in travel would mean two million fewer visits and cost $2.1bn in lost spending, with local businesses suffering the most.

“You’ve got businesses that have to recalibrate their projections regarding the number of visitors, which has a very significant ripple effect throughout the manufacturing sector and supply chains, all the way into the travel and tourism industries, but also much beyond that,” said Valorie Crooks of Simon Fraser University and an expert in snowbird demographics and behaviors.

“There are entire hospitals that bring in seasonal workers to address the demand by the influx of snowbirds from the northern US and Canada, and when you change the numbers you change everything about how a particular hospital system is able to operate.”

Crooks said the more obstacles that are placed in the path of snowbirds, the more likely they are to take themselves, and their money, elsewhere, such as Mexico, the second most popular destination for Canadian winter travelers.

“One of the things that being a snowbird is really predicated on is the ease of movement across the border. This is the next step of sentiment that people are concerned about – that political will can seemingly change on a whim, and ease of access across the border shifts because of a change brought about by a government administration,” she said.

“There are countries all over the world looking to attract people to come and stay for winter seasons, and they’re going to look even more attractive when an established destination like the southern part of the US is no longer somewhere Americans and many Canadians feel comfortable going.”

Clavet, the Fort Lauderdale rental business owner, disagrees. “As it gets cold and those real snowbirds starts to fly this way, others will follow. Florida is safe and clean, there’s plenty to do, you don’t have to be afraid of the water you’re drinking, you don’t need special vaccines.

“Florida is just the best place for them. They will come back, and we’ll be OK.”

Two UK divisions of the ticket resale website Viagogo have been hit with a £15m tax bill after HMRC found they had not paid enough duty.

Corporate filings for VGL Services and IFOT Services, both part of the US-listed StubHub group that includes Viagogo, reveal that both firms set aside money to cover costs arising from a “transfer pricing inquiry with HMRC” relating to the period between 2016 and 2018.

Transfer pricing refers to the way in which separate entities within a larger corporate group charge each other for services or goods they provide to one another.

Any such transactions should take place at market rates. Tax authorities are known to monitor whether companies are inflating prices artificially in order to move money from a division in a high-tax jurisdiction to one based in a low-tax area.

The accounts did not go into detail about HMRC’s findings about Viagogo’s tax affairs and there is no suggestion the company deliberately sought to avoid or evade tax.

The UK businesses do not directly sell tickets but both supplied group companies during the period in question, according to the accounts, including providing technology and customer services.

The £15m combined sum set aside by the two companies, both of which are registered to an address on London’s Cannon Street, includes interest that HMRC would have earned on the tax receipts, had they been paid, as well as charges for late payment.

In their filings, the businesses said they believe HMRC’s findings have resulted in “double taxation”, which is when a business is taxed on the same activity in two different jurisdictions.

The firms said they had now changed their transfer pricing policy but would also seek “remediation” under the UK’s tax agreement with other countries, which could result in a future financial benefit.

The companies already paid a combined £5.5m earlier this year, but said the “timing of further payments and settlement remains unclear”.

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Viagogo is under intense scrutiny as the government moves towards a review of “secondary ticketing”, which is expected to result in a cap on the resell price of tickets, amid an outcry over touts using such platforms to exploit fans.

Any such policy in one of its most important markets could deal a blow to Viagogo, whose parent company StubHub Holdings floated on the US Nasdaq index in September with a valuation of $8.6bn (£6.5bn), which has since dwindled to $6.6bn.

StubHub Holdings is separate to StubHub International, which includes the UK brand of the same name. The Competition and Markets Authority forced the two businesses to split to ensure continued competition in the UK, after Viagogo and StubHub agreed a merger.

Viagogo did not return a request for comment.