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ASML Holding (NasdaqGS:ASML) continues to attract investor interest, particularly as its recent stock performance reflects broader momentum in the semiconductor sector. Over the past month, shares have gained 9%, signaling renewed confidence ahead of next quarter’s results.

See our latest analysis for ASML Holding.

After an impressive 1-month share price return of 8.6%, ASML Holding is riding a wave of momentum that has been building for much of the past year. With the latest move, its 1-year total shareholder return now stands at over 53%, and the three-year total return sits above 80%. This underscores both short-term excitement and long-term confidence in the company’s prospects as chip demand continues to grow.

If ASML’s sustained gains have caught your attention, this is a great moment to discover See the full list for free.

But with shares trading near all-time highs, the real question now is whether ASML Holding is undervalued, or if the market is already factoring in every bit of the company’s future growth potential, leaving little room for a true buying opportunity.

ASML Holding’s narrative valuation stands just above its recent close, suggesting the stock may be trading a little ahead of its fair value. At a $1,017 share price, this small premium could reflect optimism about the business’s unique technology edge and market dominance, but also means buyers are paying up for those advantages.

“ASML is the only company in the world producing EUV lithography tools. These machines are essential for making the world’s most powerful semiconductors. This gives ASML a near-monopoly in a fast-growing market driven by AI, 5G, and high-performance computing.”

Read the complete narrative.

What assumptions drive that fair value? The narrative hints at market dominance, eye-popping margins, and recurring revenue streams. But does it all add up? The secret sauce behind this premium lies in hard-to-replicate advantages and ambitious long-term projections. See exactly what fuels the conviction behind this price tag.

Result: Fair Value of $1,002.53 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

However, challenges such as escalating U.S.-China trade tensions and macroeconomic uncertainty could slow ASML’s growth narrative and spark renewed market volatility.

Find out about the key risks to this ASML Holding narrative.

While the most popular narrative points to a slight overvaluation, our SWS DCF model suggests an even bigger gap. It estimates ASML’s fair value at $762.69 per share, which indicates that the stock is trading well above what future cash flows might justify. Could the market be overlooking risks, or is it simply betting big on long-term growth?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

If you’ve got your own perspective or want to dig into the numbers yourself, it’s easy to create your own view in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding ASML Holding.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include ASML.

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