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It’s been a pretty great week for Barry Callebaut AG (VTX:BARN) shareholders, with its shares surging 14% to CHF1,195 in the week since its latest yearly results. Revenues were CHF15b, approximately in line with whatthe analysts expected, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) crushed expectations, coming in at CHF33.83, an impressive 29% ahead of estimates. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the twelve analysts covering Barry Callebaut provided consensus estimates of CHF13.6b revenue in 2026, which would reflect a discernible 7.8% decline over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to soar 105% to CHF69.40. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CHF14.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of CHF71.27 in 2026. It’s pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a small dip in earnings per share estimates.

View our latest analysis for Barry Callebaut

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of CHF1,280, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Barry Callebaut’s valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Barry Callebaut analyst has a price target of CHF2,070 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CHF1,000. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 7.8% by the end of 2026. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 15% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 2.8% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining – Barry Callebaut is expected to lag the wider industry.

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Barry Callebaut. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Barry Callebaut going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

That said, it’s still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We’ve identified 5 warning signs with Barry Callebaut (at least 1 which is a bit unpleasant) , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.