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Executive summary

Trade flows across India, the Middle East, and Africa continue to show resilience amid a complex policy landscape and shifting global demand. The final quarter of 2025 is marked by stabilized ocean reliability, major customs reforms, and a renewed focus on sustainable inland logistics.

India’s accelerated trade negotiations with the EU and the operationalisation of the India–EFTA pact signal stronger export potential for manufacturing and consumer goods sectors.

In Africa, seasonal flows in grapes and cocoa are well supported by robust pricing, reliable equipment positioning, and improved traceability. Meanwhile, Gulf economies continue to digitize trade and customs operations, reinforcing their positions as global logistics hubs.

Across the region, regulatory clarity and infrastructure investment are setting the tone for a more predictable and transparent trade environment heading into 2026.

Ocean update

South Africa – Grape Season Outlook

South Africa’s grape export season is on track to begin in mid-Q4, with healthy crop yields and firm demand from European importers ahead of the festive period. Terminal operations in Cape Town remain steady, though occasional berthing delays due to weather may occur.

Equipment repositioning continues to progress well, and Gemini network performance has stabilized sailing schedules. With proactive planning and steady container availability, a smooth start to the season is anticipated, reinforcing customer confidence and market reliability.

West Africa – Cocoa Sector Strengthens

West Africa’s cocoa sector is entering a period of renewed optimism. Record farmgate prices — Côte d’Ivoire at 2,800 CFA fr/kg (+27%) and Ghana at GH₵ 58,000/MT (+12%), are strengthening farmer participation and formal trade channels. Cameroon and Nigeria are following similar trajectories, underpinned by demand for high-quality beans and growing domestic processing.

Despite a global price correction to around USD 5,956/MT, demand remains strong — especially in Europe’s premium chocolate segment and Asia’s fast-growing confectionery markets. The sector’s pivot toward traceability, digital certification, and sustainable farming continues to align with evolving global procurement standards.

For logistics, higher farmer engagement and clearer export visibility are improving nomination predictability and supply chain planning across West African corridors.

Customs update

Saudi Arabia – SABER 2.0 and Advance Import Declarations

Saudi Arabia has made the SABER Shipment Certificate mandatory prior to customs declaration (effective October 1, 2025). The enhanced SABER 2.0 system leverages blockchain verification and expands compliance requirements for high-risk goods. Additionally, from October 29, importers must submit manifests and declarations in advance for all seaport shipments — a move aligned with Vision 2030’s ‘Clearance within 2 Hours’ initiative.

Importers are encouraged to integrate both workflows early to ensure timely processing and compliance with new clearance procedures.

Oman – New Special Economic Zone in Rawdah

Oman launched the Rawdah Special Economic Zone (SEZ) in October 2025, granting duty exemptions, deferred payments, and access to bonded warehousing. The SEZ is expected to boost cross-border re-exports between the UAE and Saudi Arabia and attract manufacturing investment in construction materials and consumer goods.

Qatar – Digitized Customs and Authorized Forwarders

Qatar introduced an AI-enabled ‘Customs Documents’ system in October 2025, automating the archiving of customs agreements and memoranda. Simultaneously, the Ministry of Transport mandated that all import and export shipments be handled by authorized freight forwarders, excluding direct Beneficial Cargo Owner (BCO) shipments.

These reforms aim to enhance compliance, traceability, and trade facilitation efficiency.

India – Trade Facilitation and FTA Progress

Negotiations on the India–EU Free Trade Agreement accelerated this month, targeting completion by December 2025. The India–EFTA Pact became operational in October, unlocking USD 100 billion in investment commitments. Additionally, the Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs (CBIC) consolidated 31 notifications into one unified directive to streamline compliance.

Importers and exporters should review rules of origin and tariff updates to capture new market access opportunities.

Bangladesh – Tariff Reform and LDC Transition Preparedness

Bangladesh’s FY26 budget introduces a wide-ranging tariff reform as the country prepares for graduation from Least Developed Country (LDC) status in 2026. The proposal includes cutting import duties on 110 products, reducing duties on 65, and eliminating supplementary duties on nine items, while adding a new 40% duty slab for luxury goods.

To enhance export competitiveness, the government is expanding Central and Free Zone Bonded Warehouses, enabling faster raw material imports for export industries. The reform also eliminates the tariff valuation system and minimum import values on 84 products, while a new risk-based Import Policy Order aims to reduce clearance time from 270 hours to under 100.

Impact on businesses:

• Exporters can expect lower input costs for pharmaceuticals and agro-machinery, and faster turnaround under simplified clearance.
• Importers benefit from reduced tariffs on essentials and raw materials, though luxury goods face higher supplementary duties.
• The transition reforms are designed to help Bangladesh maintain cost competitiveness and supply chain efficiency post-LDC graduation.

Sri Lanka – Trade Facilitation and Digitization Momentum

Sri Lanka has approved its Trade Facilitation Action Plan 2025–2028, focusing on digitization of customs procedures and full compliance with the WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement. The plan is designed to reduce clearance delays and improve transparency.

Customs revenue has already reached 90% of the annual target by October 2025, aided by stronger enforcement and digital tools. The new Tariff Guide 2025 updates HS codes and statutory requirements for imports, effective January 2026.

Pakistan – National Tariff Policy 2025–30 and Industrial Growth Agenda

Pakistan has launched its National Tariff Policy 2025–30, targeting a reduction in average tariffs from 20.19% to below 10% by 2030. The policy simplifies customs duty slabs to 0%, 5%, 10%, and 15%, and phases out Regulatory Duties (RDs) and Additional Customs Duties (ACDs) over the next five years.

Complementary reforms under the Finance Bill 2025 expand the zero-duty slab to 916 tariff lines, abolish RDs on 554 codes, and lower ACDs across most slabs. Automotive tariffs are set to decline from mid-2026, while exemptions under the Fifth Schedule will be rationalized to reduce fragmentation.

Impact on businesses:

• Importers benefit from lower input costs for industrial materials, improving production margins and pricing flexibility.
• Exporters gain a competitive edge in regional trade through cheaper inputs and streamlined customs processes.
• The policy underpins Pakistan’s export-led recovery strategy, improving cost structures for manufacturing, textiles, and industrial value chains.

Global Trade Watch – External Developments Shaping IMEA Supply Chains

The United States has entered multiple bilateral trade frameworks across Asia, including Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand, and Vietnam, reinforcing supply chain diversification.

New critical minerals and rare earth agreements with Japan further anchor regional resilience and secure long-term industrial collaboration.

Inland Update

Rail Freight Expansion Across Northern India

As part of its integrated logistics push, India is witnessing strong uptake in rail-based freight, especially on north–west and north–east corridors. The recently expanded Maersk Intercontinental Rail network now connects Ludhiana, Dadri, and Ahmedabad to ports such as Mundra and Pipavav, offering temperature-controlled and dry-cargo services to Europe, CIS countries, and the Middle East.

This rail solution provides a lower-emission, cost-efficient alternative to road transport, reducing transit times by up to 30% and CO₂ emissions by over 60%. Seamless multimodal integration, combining ocean, rail, and last-mile road delivery, continues to enhance India’s export competitiveness for automotive, FMCG, and textile industries.

With growing policy focus on decarbonization and “Make in India” export infrastructure, inland rail logistics is emerging as a critical pillar of India’s sustainable trade growth.

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TOKYO — Honda reported Friday that its profit for the first fiscal half through September fell 37% from the previous year, as the damage from President Donald Trump’s tariffs offset the lift from solid motorcycle sales.

Tokyo-based Honda Motor Co. recorded a 311.8 billion yen ($2 billion) profit for April-September, down from 494.6 billion yen a year before.

Sales over the six months totaled 10.6 trillion yen ($69 billion), down 1.5% from nearly 10.8 trillion yen.

Honda lowered its profit projection for the fiscal year through March 2026 to 300 billion yen ($2 billion), which would be a decline of 64% from 835.8 billion yen the year before. It had earlier forecast a 420 billion yen ($2.7 billion) annual profit.

Honda, which makes the Accord sedan and Odyssey minivan, said an unfavorable currency rate also hurt its bottom line, erasing 116 billion yen ($756 million) from its operating profit over the six months.

But Honda achieved record sales in motorcycles, led by strong results in the Asian region, excluding Vietnam. Honda said it sold more than 9 million motorcycles in Asia during the first half, up from 8.8 million a year ago. Honda’s motorcycle sales improved in every global region, except for Europe, at a record 10.7 million units sold.

Honda’s global vehicle sales in the first half totaled 1.68 million vehicles, down from 1.78 million. By region, vehicle sales grew in North America, but fell in Japan, the rest of Asia and Europe.

Although it helps that Honda produces many of its vehicles in the U.S., tariffs caused a decline of 164 billion yen ($1.1 billion) in operating profit over the six-month period, the company said.

Adding to its challenges, Honda has faced a chips shortage after the Dutch government in late September took control of Nexperia, which is based in the Netherlands but owned by Chinese company Wingtech Technology, citing national security concerns.

In response, China blocked shipments of chips from Nexperia’s plant in the southern Chinese city of Dongguan, though it has now allowed those exports to resume.

Vehicle production at Honda’s plant in Celaya, Mexico, has halted since Oct. 28, while production at North American plants were adjusted, starting Oct. 27, due to the Nexperia-related supply disruptions. Honda did not give a date on when production will be restored to normal levels.

Honda stocks on Friday gained 1.8% to 1,585 yen ($10) in Tokyo trading.

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Yuri Kageyama is on Threads: https://www.threads.com/@yurikageyama

The Netherlands is prepared to suspend its powers over Chinese-owned chipmaker Nexperia in a move that would de-escalate a fight with Beijing that threatens to disrupt automotive production around the world.

The Dutch government is ready to shelve the ministerial order that gave it the power to block or change key corporate decisions at Nexperia, if China allows exports of its critical chips again, according to people familiar with the matter.