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Finnair Oyj (HLSE:FIA1S) posted a mixed set of numbers this period, with earnings forecast to surge 73.5% per year, far ahead of the Finnish market’s expected 17.1% growth rate. Net profit margin narrowed to 0.3% from 2.1% last year, and though the company delivered annual earnings growth of 53.6% over the past five years, this year’s figures include a large one-off gain of €42.6 million up to September 2025.

See our full analysis for Finnair Oyj.

Up next, we will see how these headline results compare to the narratives and expectations shaping Finnair’s outlook. Some assumptions will hold up, but others may face tough questions as we dig deeper.

See what the community is saying about Finnair Oyj

• Analysts predict that Finnair’s profit margins will rise from 0.5% today to 2.7% within three years, signaling significant anticipated improvement beyond this year’s subdued 0.3% net margin.

• According to the analysts’ consensus view, several key strategies are underpinning this optimism:

  • The capacity increase of roughly 10% (ASK growth) in 2025, combined with investments in fuel-efficient aircraft, is expected to drive both top-line growth and strengthen underlying margins.

  • Growth in high-margin ancillary sales and expected route efficiencies if Russian overflights resume are seen as strong levers for margin uplift, helping to counteract higher environmental and operating costs.

• While industrial disputes and cost inflation continue to be risks, healthy summer demand and the ongoing fleet renewal provide tangible support for the positive margin outlook.

• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 0.61% per year over the coming three years, which could further enhance earnings per share if profit growth materializes as forecast.

• What stands out is that despite these bullish drivers, the large one-off gain of €42.6 million included up to September 2025 has inflated the latest reported earnings. This makes the underlying margin story one to watch as these extraordinary items fade from results.

• Fuel efficiency and strategic route changes will be critical in determining if this margin trajectory is sustainable or just a temporary lift.

• See how the consensus narrative could shape the next phase of Finnair’s story: 📊 Read the full Finnair Oyj Consensus Narrative.

• Finnair’s shares are trading at a 55x Price-to-Earnings ratio, far above both the global airline industry average of 8.7x and its peer group at 14.3x, even as reported earnings benefit from one-off items.

• Analysts’ consensus view flags this premium valuation as a point of tension:

  • The current share price of €2.85 sits well below the DCF fair value estimate of €15.69. This suggests theoretical upside if optimistic forecasts are realized.

  • However, a PE multiple this elevated could be hard to justify long term if future profit margins remain volatile and earnings rely on non-recurring gains.