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  • Google will integrate Kalshi and Polymarket predictions into its Finance AI tools

    Google will integrate Kalshi and Polymarket predictions into its Finance AI tools

    Google will begin including “prediction market” odds from the online betting platforms Kalshi and Polymarket into its Google Finance tools, the company said late Thursday.

    The move would potentially put the platforms in front of millions of Americans who use Google, as the companies behind them face legal scrutiny in several major markets.

    Polymarket and Kalshi insist that the wagers placed through their platforms are merely “event contracts” between private parties that should be regulated like commodities — not traditional gambling subject to state regulations.

    That distinction has failed to convince many federal lawmakers and state attorneys general, however, who claim the companies “package sports betting as events contracts.”

    Google said the integration of “event contract” sites will allow its users to “ask questions about future market events and harness the wisdom of the crowds.”

    “Just ask something like ‘What will GDP growth be for 2025?’ directly from the search box to see current probabilities in the market and how they’ve changed over time,” the company said in a blog post.

    It was unclear from Google’s announcement whether the prediction widgets would click through directly to Kalshi’s and Polymarket’s websites.

    Representatives for Kalshi, Polymarket and Google did not reply to questions about how the deal will work.

    But the “predictions” on both of these websites represent the aggregate of bets that users place on the outcome of whatever event is at issue — everything from financial results and election outcomes to movie award nominees and sports games.

    Both companies currently operate within a patchwork of laws and regulations around the world that frequently put them in legal gray areas.

    “By claiming to be federally regulated … issuers of sports event contracts can avoid myriad state [gaming] laws, including licensing and background investigations, minimum age requirements, federal anti-money laundering rules, and consumer protections such as addiction warnings and integrity monitoring,” six U.S. senators wrote in a Sept. 30 letter to federal regulators about sites like Kalshi and Polymarket.

    Currently, U.S.-based individuals are barred from placing active bets on Polymarket and are instead restricted to a “view-only” mode on the site. But that is expected to change in the coming weeks, as Polymarket rolls out U.S. betting services.

    Residents of Australia and France are also restricted in the kind of active betting they can do on Polymarket.

    Kalshi is slightly different. Regulated in the United States by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Kalshi argues in court that it is permitted to operate in all 50 states, even ones that explicitly prohibit sports betting.

    State attorneys general and anti-gambling groups in multiple states have brought legal actions against Kalshi that are moving through the courts. The outcome of these cases could determine the company’s access to U.S. markets in the future.

    Along with legal questions, Polymarket has also faced allegations that its betting-based prediction system is vulnerable to market manipulation — and that the very existence of prediction markets could jeopardize the integrity of events, in particular of elections.

    “Conduct designed to artificially affect the electoral process could manipulate the market and incentivize the spread of misinformation,” the Biden-era CFTC wrote in an appeal of an earlier lower-court ruling in favor of Kalshi.

    On Thursday, a group of researchers at Columbia Business School’s Decision Risk and Operations division published a paper that found that as much as 25% of trading volume on Polymarket may be artificially inflated by some users rapidly buying and selling contracts to themselves.

    The sites have also faced criticism over how they determine whether a given event has taken place.

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  • Cell Therapy May Help Preserve Kidney Function of Patients With CKD Stages 3-4

    Cell Therapy May Help Preserve Kidney Function of Patients With CKD Stages 3-4

    Without effective treatment, individuals with chronic kidney disease (CKD) stages 3-4 face progressive decline in kidney function. According to Kun Wang, PhD, and colleagues at the Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Tongji Medical…

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  • China’s Tianwen-1 Orbiter Spots 3I/ATLAS

    China’s Tianwen-1 Orbiter Spots 3I/ATLAS

    The interstellar object known as 3I/ATLAS just flew past Mars, and China’s Tianwen-1 mission managed to snap some pics with it’s high-resolution camera. According to the China National Space Agency (CNSA), the orbiter’s high-resolution…

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  • Olivia Rodrigo Slams Feds For Using Her Song In Deportation Video

    Olivia Rodrigo Slams Feds For Using Her Song In Deportation Video

    Olivia Rodrigo To Feds
    Keep Me Outta ‘Your Racist, Hateful Propaganda’

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  • Exploring endogenous retroviruses as hidden drivers of alcohol use disorder

    Exploring endogenous retroviruses as hidden drivers of alcohol use disorder

    Alcohol use disorder (AUD), characterized by uncontrollable alcohol consumption due to physical and psychological dependence, affects approximately 14.1 million people in the U.S. Despite the related public health issues and…

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  • New high-res black hole images challenge Einstein’s theory of relativity

    New high-res black hole images challenge Einstein’s theory of relativity

    A black hole can feel like the most distant and unreal object you could ever think about, yet the way its darkness bends light may one day speak directly to the deepest parts of physics.

    If you have ever looked at the famous images of the giant…

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  • What the teams said – Sprint Qualifying at the 2025 Sao Paulo Grand Prix

    What the teams said – Sprint Qualifying at the 2025 Sao Paulo Grand Prix

    Mercedes

    Mercedes looked heavier on fuel than some of their rivals in FP1, and as such, their true form remained a little unknown heading into Sprint Qualifying. What they unleashed in the second session was a very fast car, with both drivers…

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  • Lessons from Denmark’s eight-hour workday reform

    In recent years, calls for shorter working weeks have re-emerged across Europe and beyond. Policymakers, unions, among others, have pushed for shorter workweeks, often arguing for positive productivity effects, whereby societies can maintain output while improving workers’ wellbeing (Garnero et al. 2022). Trials in the UK (Gross 2022) as well as experiments promoted by the organisation 4 Day Week Global have, for example, attracted substantial public attention and generated optimism about the feasibility of large-scale reductions in work time without loss of income.

    Yet, the debate is hardly new. Over a century ago, the introduction of the eight-hour workday represented one of the most transformative labour-market reforms in industrialised countries. The Danish experience of 1919 provides a revealing historical parallel. At that time, the workday in the craft and industrial sectors was reduced to eight hours from up to ten hours, corresponding to a decline of as much as 12 hours per week, the largest reduction in working hours in Danish history.

    In a recent study (Gunnesmo and Hansen 2025), we examine how this major work-time reduction affected key labour-market outcomes, such as hourly wages, weekly earnings, and employment. Drawing on newly digitised quarterly data covering more than 60 occupational groups across Copenhagen and the rest of Denmark between 1914 and 1931, we exploit variation in the size of the work-time cut across occupations to estimate the reform’s impact on labour-market outcomes.

    A major early 20th-century experiment

    The 1919 work-time reform was introduced in the industrial and craft sector through central negotiations between the national labour federation (De Samvirkende Fagforbund) and the main employers’ association (Dansk Arbejdsgiverforening). The first agreement in January 1919 reduced working hours to a maximum of nine and a minimum of eight hours per day, while standardising Saturday hours to eight. A few months later, in May, the full transition to the eight-hour day was implemented without any further centrally agreed-upon wage compensation. Figure 1 shows the development of the average workday in the sector from 1872 to 1925 and illustrates the magnitude of the reform.

    Figure 1 Daily working hours, 1872–1925

    Notes: Average hours worked in Denmark from 1872 to 1925. The dashed line represents the collective bargaining reform. We observe country-level average working hours between 1872 and 1911, but with gaps. We calculate the 1914–1925 values from occupation-level data. Hours are interpolated where data is missing: several intervals between 1872 and 1911, and between 1914 and 1919.

    This shift was part of a broader international movement (e.g. Milhaud 1925). Similar reforms were implemented in France, Germany, and Sweden between 1918 and 1920, and the ‘Eight hours labour, eight hours recreation, eight hours rest’ slogan had become a defining demand of organised labour since the late 19th century (Figure 2).

    Figure 2 ‘8–8-8’ demonstration in Copenhagen

    Notes: Photograph from the 1 May demonstration in Copenhagen in 1912, where participants demanded ‘Eight hours labour, eight hours recreation, eight hours rest’. 
    Source: Arbejdermuseet – The Workers Museum.

    Unlike in some countries, where full wage compensation was determined by law, Danish workers negotiated their wages with their local employer through labour unions. This type of wage setting allows for a clear empirical test of how wages and employment adjusted when hours were cut substantially.

    Wage compensation and employment adjustment

    Our findings show that the eight-hour reform reduced weekly earnings in proportion to the reduction in hours in provincial towns but not in Copenhagen. In the capital, hourly wages rose enough to offset roughly 40% of the loss in working hours. In other words, a 1% reduction in work time led to a 0.4% increase in hourly pay and a 0.6% decline in weekly earnings.

    Employment, however, increased across both regions. Firms responded to the reduction in hours by hiring additional workers, which is consistent with the classic ‘work-sharing’ hypothesis. The rise in employment was especially pronounced among unskilled and female workers in Copenhagen, suggesting that these groups particularly benefited from the reform. The positive employment effects persisted throughout the 1920s, even as economic conditions changed.

    This historical evidence contrasts with evidence from more recent reforms, such as those in France (Crépon and Kramarz 2002) and Germany (Hunt 1999). In both papers, the authors found full wage compensation but no employment gains. The evidence also complements findings from Bengtsson and Molinder (2017) for Sweden, where full compensation led to job losses in traded industries. Denmark’s move to the eight-hour workday therefore highlights the importance of institutional context: if wage bargaining is decentralised, full compensation is not necessarily guaranteed.

    Interpreting the results

    The Danish institutional context can be interpreted through the union–monopoly framework of Calmfors (1985), in which unions set wages while taking working hours as given. The eight-hour workday itself was determined at a higher level of bargaining between the national labour federation and the main employers’ association and, in the model, assumed outside the scope of individual unions. Within this framework, when workers value consumption more than they dislike working, unions increase wages to partially offset lost hours, though not enough to preserve weekly earnings. At the same time, if hours and labour are sufficiently substitutable, firms respond by hiring additional workers.

    Applying this logic to 1919 Denmark, we interpret the partial wage compensation and employment expansion as the outcome of decentralised wage bargaining under constrained hours. In Copenhagen, where union membership density was higher, the unions secured partial compensation, whereas in the provinces with weaker unions, wages hardly moved.

    Although the reduction in work time for all workers presents an opportunity for the employer to replace lost labour with capital, we find no evidence that the reform accelerated mechanisation. We also find no effects of the reform on labour-market conflicts, although conflict levels in Denmark were high in the years surrounding the reform. Data from industrial censuses show no rise in horsepower per worker in firms most exposed to the reform, and strike records indicate that neither strikes nor lockouts changed significantly once the eight-hour day was introduced. Adjustment occurred primarily through labour demand, not through capital deepening or industrial unrest.

    Lessons for today’s policy debate

    Our results offer three lessons for current discussions on work-time reductions. First, large reductions in working hours are unlikely to be costless. The Danish experience shows that while productivity may increase at the margin, even a historically successful transition such as the eight-hour reform involved a clear trade-off between income and leisure. This contrasts with some contemporary narratives that suggest shorter workweeks can sustain existing pay levels through keeping output constant.

    Second, the reform’s employment gains were concentrated among unskilled workers, implying that shorter workweeks may benefit marginalised groups in the labour market. In that sense, work-time reductions can redistribute employment opportunities, especially in periods of high unemployment, which characterised post-war Denmark in 1919.

    Third, institutional design matters. Full wage compensation, as in Sweden’s experience, can offset employment gains, while unrestricted wage bargaining, as in Denmark, allows for work sharing. Modern reforms should therefore account for wage-setting institutions, productivity responses, and labour-market conditions.

    Authors’ note: We gratefully acknowledge financial support from The ROCKWOOL Foundation on the research project titled ‘Welfare and Economic Development: Lessons from the Origins of the Welfare State’, which this research is part of.

    References

    Bengtsson, E, and J Molinder (2017), “The economic effects of the 1920 eight-hour working day reform in Sweden”, Scandinavian Economic History Review 65(2): 149–68.

    Calmfors, L (1985), “Work sharing, employment and wages”, European Economic Review 27(3): 293–309.

    Crépon, B, and F Kramarz (2002), “Employed 40 hours or not employed 39: Lessons from the 1982 mandatory reduction of the workweek”, Journal of Political Economy 110(6): 1355–89.

    Garnero, A, A Tondini, and C Batut (2022), “The employment effects of working-time reductions in Europe”, VoxEU.org, 19 December.

    Gross, J (2022), “4-day workweek brings no loss of productivity, companies in experiment say”, New York Times, 22 September.

    Gunnesmo, M, and C Hansen (2025), “Labor-market effects of introducing the 8-hour workday”, CEPR Discussion Paper 20785.

    Hunt, J (1999), “Has work-sharing worked in Germany?”, Quarterly Journal of Economics 114(1): 117–48.

    Milhaud, E (1925), “The results of the adoption of the eight-hour day: The eight-hour day and technical progress”, International Labour Review 12: 820.

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  • WWE SmackDown live results, review and match grades from South Carolina

    WWE SmackDown live results, review and match grades from South Carolina

    Cody Rhodes and Jade Cargill are WWE SmackDown’s top dogs. After successful showings at Saturday Night’s Main Event, the future is promising yet unclear for undisputed WWE champion Rhodes and WWE women’s champion…

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  • Sydney Sweeney confesses she nearly lost it during chaotic skydive

    Sydney Sweeney confesses she nearly lost it during chaotic skydive

    Sydney Sweeney confesses she nearly lost it during chaotic skydive

    Sydney Sweeney shared a wild story on The Late Show with Stephen Colbert,…

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