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If you are wondering whether Shopify’s current share price lines up with its underlying business, you are not alone. That is exactly what this article will unpack for you.
Shopify’s stock recently closed at US$112.05, with returns of a 14.6% decline over the last 7 days, a 32.8% decline over the last 30 days, a 28.7% decline year to date, a 4.6% decline over 1 year, and a 132.0% gain over 3 years, alongside a 23.0% decline over 5 years.
Recent news coverage has focused on Shopify’s role as a major e commerce platform provider and how investor expectations around growth, profitability and competition can influence short term price swings. Commentary has also highlighted how sentiment toward high growth software names can change quickly. This provides useful context for the recent share price moves.
Our valuation checks currently give Shopify a score of 2 out of 6. Next we will look at how different valuation methods assess the stock, while hinting at a more rounded way to think about value that we will come back to at the end.
Shopify scores just 2/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.
A Discounted Cash Flow model projects the cash a business could generate in the future and then discounts those cash flows back to today to estimate what the whole company might be worth right now.
For Shopify, the model uses a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach. The latest twelve months Free Cash Flow is about $1.89b. Analyst projections, supplemented by Simply Wall St extrapolations beyond the usual 5 year window, indicate Free Cash Flow of $7.52b by 2030, with intermediate years stepping up between those points based on the inputs shown in the table above.
Discounting all those projected cash flows back to today gives an estimated intrinsic value of US$127.03 per share. Compared with the recent share price of about US$112.05, this suggests the stock is around 11.8% undervalued according to this DCF model.
Result: UNDERVALUED
Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Shopify is undervalued by 11.8%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 53 more high quality undervalued stocks.
SHOP Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026
Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Shopify.
For profitable companies, the P/E ratio is a useful way to think about value because it links what you pay per share to the earnings the business is already generating. It is a quick gauge of how many dollars investors are willing to pay for each dollar of current earnings.
What counts as a “normal” P/E depends on how the market views a company’s growth potential and risk. Higher expected growth and lower perceived risk can justify a higher multiple, while slower growth or higher uncertainty usually point to a lower one.
Shopify currently trades on a P/E of 81.90x. That is above the IT industry average of 26.51x and also above the peer average of 36.66x. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for Shopify is 46.69x. This Fair Ratio is a proprietary estimate of what the P/E might be, given factors like earnings growth, profit margins, industry, market cap and specific risks.
Because it blends these company specific drivers, the Fair Ratio can be more informative than a simple comparison with peers or the broad industry. Comparing the two, Shopify’s current P/E of 81.90x versus the Fair Ratio of 46.69x indicates the shares are trading above that modelled level.
Result: OVERVALUED
NasdaqGS:SHOP P/E Ratio as at Feb 2026
P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Start investing in legacies, not executives. Discover our 22 top founder-led companies.
Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Let us introduce you to Narratives, which let you attach a clear story to your numbers by pairing your view on Shopify’s future revenue, earnings and margins with an assumed fair value.
A Narrative is simply your structured view of the company. You connect what you think Shopify’s business story looks like over time to a financial forecast, and then to a fair value that you can compare with the current share price.
On Simply Wall St, millions of investors share these Narratives on the Community page. This makes it easy for you to see different scenarios, use the tools without complex modelling, and see whether your own Fair Value sits above or below the current price, which can help you decide if and when you might want to act.
Because Narratives refresh automatically when new information such as earnings reports or major news is added to the platform, one investor might build a Shopify Narrative that assumes strong revenue growth and a higher fair value, while another assumes slower growth and a lower fair value. Both can instantly see how their stories stack up against the live market price.
Do you think there’s more to the story for Shopify? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!
NasdaqGS:SHOP 1-Year Stock Price Chart
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include SHOP.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
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