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The move in Tesco’s fair value estimate from £4.84 to £4.80 per share looks small on the surface, but it reflects a careful rebalancing of risk and growth in the valuation work. A slightly higher discount rate of 8.13% sits alongside a revenue growth assumption of 2.95%, which keeps the long run earnings narrative intact while acknowledging a more cautious backdrop. As you read on, keep an eye on how these subtle shifts feed into the broader story so you can stay tuned on practical ways to track future changes in the narrative around Tesco.
Analyst Price Targets don’t always capture the full story. Head over to our Company Report to find new ways to value Tesco.
Recent analyst commentary on TSCO, which refers to Tractor Supply rather than Tesco, still gives you a useful playbook for thinking about how the street can reward or penalise a retail name when it reassesses fair value. The same themes that show up in these TSCO notes, such as execution on growth plans, clarity on medium term margins and discipline on costs, are often the ones that shape sentiment around Tesco as well.
🐂 Bullish Takeaways
Several firms, including Jefferies and Baird, have highlighted what they see as supportive customer behaviour and “needle moving growth initiatives,” and have raised or set price targets between US$64 and US$67 when they gain confidence that execution and growth plans are on track. For Tesco, similar attention tends to fall on how consistently it delivers against its revenue and margin ambitions.
Analysts at Mizuho and Wells Fargo have pointed to easing concerns around sales trends and more encouraging management commentary on the medium term, including references to 2026 margin potential. When Tesco provides comparable clarity on its multi year margin or cost efficiency goals, that kind of visibility can be a positive input into valuation work.
Jefferies has flagged that, even when a retailer screens as a “hedge” to consumer uncertainty, a discount to its own historical valuation range can be viewed as puzzling. When you look at Tesco, a similar question often comes up, which is how its current share price lines up with its own history and with the quality of its execution and balance sheet.
🐻 Bearish Takeaways
Gordon Haskett, through analyst Chuck Grom, moved from an Accumulate stance to Hold on TSCO with a US$50 price target after trimming same store sales expectations from 3.0% to 1.0% and flagging a lack of near term catalysts. This is a reminder that for a retailer like Tesco, any reset in growth assumptions or perceived lull in upcoming triggers can pull fair value estimates a little lower, even if the long run story feels unchanged.
Across these TSCO updates, a recurring reservation is that upside can look “priced in” when there is limited visibility on achieving stated growth ranges such as 3% to 5% same store sales. For Tesco, that kind of caution typically shows up when analysts see execution risk around planned earnings growth, or when they feel recent share price moves already reflect much of the expected improvement in margins or cash generation.
Do your thoughts align with the Bull or Bear Analysts? Perhaps you think there’s more to the story. Head to the Simply Wall St Community to discover more perspectives or begin writing your own Narrative!
LSE:TSCO 1-Year Stock Price Chart
Solution International Nordics AB is rolling out a “one stop shop” bathtime product display in Tesco stores within the baby aisle as part of a joint 2026/27 promotional plan. The initiative is aimed at driving incremental sales and highlighting Tesco’s role in bringing new baby ranges to market across UK and Ireland warehouses and stores.
A new Pacvue partnership with Tesco Media, integrated via Epsilon Retail Media, gives brands the ability to run, optimise and measure sponsored product campaigns on Tesco alongside other retailers. This uses a custom “Sales at Checkout” metric that reflects Tesco’s fulfilment based attribution model and is standardised within Pacvue for cross retailer reporting.
Pacvue is extending its full suite of reporting, automation and optimisation tools to Tesco Media campaigns. This includes Share of Voice analytics, custom dashboards and automated bidding and budget pacing, which allows advertisers to manage Tesco and other major marketplaces in a single workflow.
Solution International is expanding its “Grow with Peppa” character merchandise range in Tesco, with six SKUs in two colour formats for early independent eating available in up to 510 stores across the UK and Ireland and on Tesco’s eCommerce platform. This is alongside projected annual revenue of over SEK 3m and plans for a further baby focused initiative in 2026/27.
Fair value was trimmed slightly from £4.84 to £4.80 per share. This is a small adjustment in the model output and suggests that the core thesis remains broadly intact.
The discount rate was nudged higher from 7.96% to 8.13%. This indicates a modestly higher risk input in the valuation work and places a bit more weight on uncertainty in the cash flow outlook.
The revenue growth assumption was lifted from 2.86% to 2.95%. This is a very small step up in the projected top line trend used in the model and leans gently toward a steadier sales profile.
The profit margin was eased from 2.79% to 2.76%. This reflects a minor tweak to long run profitability assumptions and a slightly more cautious stance on how much earnings the business can retain from each pound of sales.
The future P/E was kept effectively steady, moving fractionally from 16.84x to 16.86x. The earnings multiple input is largely unchanged, so the main story sits in the cash flow and margin adjustments rather than in what investors might pay per pound of earnings.
Narratives on Simply Wall St let you connect Tesco’s story to the numbers by linking your view on its future revenue, earnings and margins to a fair value estimate. Instead of just looking at ratios, you see how a clear, written thesis translates into a forecast and then into a valuation. Narratives live on the Community page, update automatically when fresh news or earnings arrive, and help you decide what to do by comparing Fair Value to today’s Price.
Head over to the Simply Wall St Community and follow the Tesco Narrative to stay on top of how the story and the numbers fit together:
How investments in quality, digital expansion and customer experience are tied to forecasts for revenue growth, margins and earnings per share up to about 2028.
Why higher risk assumptions, stable margin expectations and a future P/E of around 16.8x are used to bridge from Tesco’s earnings outlook to an estimated fair value near £4.80.
What could challenge the thesis, including competition, household budget pressure, higher wage and supplier costs, and how these risks might affect the gap between Fair Value and the current share price.
Read the full Tesco Narrative on Simply Wall St to see the complete earnings, margin and valuation story in one place.
Curious how numbers become stories that shape markets? Explore Community Narratives
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include TSCO.L.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
On December 30, Perth woman Kerry Smith felt a scratchy throat coming on and decided to take ArmaForce, a complementary medicine that promotes boosted immunity and relief from cold and flu symptoms, which she had taken before with no ill effects.
It has been announced that a new law (Federal Decree Law No. 25 of 2025) will be issued amending the UAE’s Civil Transactions Law (Federal Law No. 5/1985). Whilst the law has not yet been officially published, it is…
The inclusion of no-mow areas in landscaping was mentioned by a board member. If this type of landscaping can save money and labor, why was this not taken into consideration earlier in the landscaping award process?
This meeting involved significant discussion about rail operations but very little about bus operations. Is this reflective of a shift of priorities and/or funds away from bus route operations?
Notes
This was a series of committee meetings for the Board of Trustees of the Greater Cleveland Regional Transit Authority (RTA). Three committees met during this meeting with separate roll calls and discussions. Committees participating during this meeting were the Organizational, Services & Performance Monitoring Committee, the Operational Planning & Infrastructure Committee Meeting, and the Ad-Hoc Compensation Committee.
The attached committee package includes the meeting notice, agendas for each committee, minutes of past meetings, and additional relevant material such as summaries of proposed awards.
Public comment is not taken during committee meetings, but public comments can generally be made in-person or by phone during designated portions of regular board meetings or via web form in advance of those meetings.
Scene setting: This was an in-person meeting open to the public with the option to view live online. A recording of this meeting is available. Past meeting recordings can be found here. While the meeting was separated into individual committees and only those on the committee took roll call and voted on items, other board members not part of the committees were active participants in discussion and question periods.
Meeting start: The meeting started at 9:02 a.m. with a roll call for the Organizational, Services & Performance Monitoring Committee.
Board members present, those on the committee in bold:
Leadership present seated with board members:
India Birdsong Terry (General Manager and CEO)
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Landscape Maintenance and Parking Lot Snow Removal (Shaker Heights Maintenance Agreement)
James Reed, RTA property manager for Programming and Planning, presented. Since 1982, RTA has entered into a series of three-year agreements with the City of Shaker Heights for landscaping and snow removal along approximately seven miles of property lining the Blue and Green Lines within the City of Shaker Heights.
Last year, the board approved a one-year agreement due to Shaker’s pending labor agreement with service personnel. This proposed two-year agreement will allow the return to a three-year agreement.
The benefits to RTA include Shaker having the staff, equipment and management in place for the work, comparable rates to other landscaping contractors, complaint calls going to the Shaker Public Works department — saving RTA time and expense to respond to calls — and Shaker bearing the risk of any contingencies that may increase the cost during the contract.
The cost is about $595,000 total for 2026 and 2027. The committee voted to advance the proposal to the full board for future consideration.
Non-Rail and HealthLine Landscaping
Dawn Svancara, a contract administrator with RTA, said a recommendation was made to award the Non-Rail and HealthLine landscaping services agreement to ESK Landscaping, LLC, based on their experience with municipal, government and other organizations, their use of digital work orders and GPS-verified tracking. They have the staff, fleet and equipment to support multi-state operations.
There was discussion to clarify the scope of this work, and staff confirmed that this is for landscaping services and does not include snow removal. Snow removal for these areas is handled in-house by RTA.
Whigham expressed appreciation for the efforts negotiating this contract. A board member asked if low or no-mow zones or pollinator habitats had been taken under consideration from a cost savings and environmental standpoint. Jason Rosenlieb, RTA manager of rail facilities, said that they have green roofs for cost savings and have looked at putting in natural grass but haven’t gotten too far into that yet.
Title VI – 2026 Program Update to the Federal Transit Administration
Title VI, Civil Rights Act of 1964, states that “No person in the United States shall, on the ground of race, color, or national origin, be excluded from participation in, be denied the benefits of, or be subjected to discrimination under any program or activity receiving Federal financial assistance.”
Robert Jefferson, RTA’s Office of Equal Opportunity and Americans with Disabilities Act Program Administrator, explained that RTA is required to prepare a Title VI program update every three years and submit it to the Federal Transit Administration (FTA) following board approval. RTA aims to serve all customers regardless of protected class, equitably distribute benefits and services and provide sufficient services for equal access. Customers have the ability to participate in RTA planning, and remedial action is taken to prevent discriminatory treatment, Jefferson said.
The main requirements are that RTA maintain a Title VI program, provides Title VI notices to the public, has complaint procedures, has a Public Participation Plan and has a Language Assistance Plan.
More information about one element of the Public Participation Plan — the Community Advisory Committee — can be found in past Documenters coverage.
RTA translates vital documents into Spanish as part of the Language Assistance Plan. Spanish speakers are the highest portion of Limited English Proficiency (LEP) individuals in the service area, according to Maribeth Feke, director of programming and planning.
Elder asked if the FTA implemented changes to prompt this update. Jefferson said this is a regular three-year update unrelated to FTA changes. Pacetti asked about feedback from this report. Joel Freilich, director of service management, said there is no formal approval of this report on the federal end.
The committee voted to advance the update to the full board for future consideration.
Update from India Birdsong Terry:Terry said that due to the upcoming Browns stadium changes, lots of public meetings will be happening that may not appear to be headed by or include the RTA. That does not mean that they aren’t in the room and part of those meetings. Northeast Ohio Areawide Coordinating Agency (NOACA) will be having a meeting on Jan. 14 at Brook Park Elementary that is open to the public to discuss traffic impact and connection to the Brook Park station.
Operational Planning & Infrastructure Committee Meeting (Committee Members Sleasman, Pacetti and Love were present)
RFP Procurement – a presentation of a competitive procurement process for a consultant to update our Strategic Plan.
Feke said an outside consultant will offer a broader, global view and insight into what others in the industry are doing.
Feke said revision of the plan would include updates on implementation of activities, establish goals for 2026 and beyond, prioritize Transit Oriented Development (TOD) efforts and reflect on market-driven dynamics, address paratransit funding strategies, consider employee retention and create external engagement.
AECOM Technical Services, Inc. is the recommended firm, at a cost of $465,000. The committee voted to advance the update to the full board for future consideration.
IFB Procurement – a presentation of a competitive procurement for the reconstruction of the transfer table at Track 3 at Central Rail Maintenance Facility (CRMF).
Derek Meinke, RTA engineer project manager, presented. The transfer table brings rail cars from different tracks for various maintenance needs. Currently, the transfer table cannot provide service to Track 3, where internal cleaning occurs, because it becomes stuck at the intersection of the transfer table and Track 3. This project would replace the intersections. Staff recommended Delta Railroad Construction, Inc., for the work, at a cost of about $1 million. The committee voted to advance the update to the full board for future consideration.
Proposed Change Order – a presentation of a negotiated change order to authorize additional construction services under Contract No. 2025-007 with RL Hill/Platform Joint Venture and to reinstate the General Manager’s change order signing authority.
This work will result in boarding ADA customers at the first train car instead of the last at the E. 79th St. Blue and Green Line Station, according to Brian Temming, manager of quality assurance. In the past, a conductor in a rear car would assist the customers. This change, which involves moving ramp platforms, will allow ADA customers to board the front car with the train operator. The additional work bumps the total cost by $67,550 for a total of about $10.5 million. The committee voted to advance the update to the full board for future consideration.
FB Procurement – a presentation of a competitive procurement to make the necessary modifications to the Red Line platforms to support the new railcars.
Don Tereba, project manager for facilities, presented. This contract will involve modification of 22 platforms on the Red Line. The new railcars are a different size than the current railcars. This will increase the gap between the cars and the platform. This project will build extensions onto existing platforms to close this gap. It will also replace damaged tactile warning surfaces and replace guardrails. During the installation of the platform extensions, there will be a planned two-week downtime. RTA plans to do dry runs to test the timeline of the installation to ensure this plan works and will then have a better idea of how long the shutdowns will need to be.
A staff member reminded those present that the first new railcar is still being built. The conversion on the Red Line is targeted to start in August 2027 and on the light rail in August 2028. Terry asked for a schedule update to be prepared.
Schirmer Construction LLC is the recommended vendor, at a cost of about $11 million. The committee voted to advance the update to the full board for future consideration.
IFB Procurement – a presentation of a competitive procurement to make the necessary modifications to CRMF to support the new railcars.
Tereba presented. The existing railcars receive maintenance from underneath. The new railcars will require maintenance from above. RTA needs to build infrastructure to access the top of the railcars. This project will build four new service balconies with fall protection and safety gates.
Standard Contracting & Engineering, Inc., received the staff’s recommendation at a cost of about $9.5 million. The committee voted to advance the update to the full board for future consideration.
Ad-Hoc Compensation Committee:
This committee called the roll and then moved into executive session at 11:01 a.m.
Members returned from executive session. The meeting was adjourned at 11:56 a.m.
Coming Up: Future board meeting dates can be found here.
These notes are by Documenter Jamie Harman.
If you believe anything in these notes is inaccurate, please email us at documenters@signalcleveland.org with “Correction Request” in the subject line.
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration today approved the Zycubo (copper histidinate) injection as the first treatment for Menkes disease in pediatric patients.
“With today’s action, children with this devastating, degenerative disease will have an FDA-approved treatment option and the potential to live longer,” said Christine Nguyen, M.D., Deputy Director of the Office of Rare Diseases, Pediatrics, Urologic and Reproductive Medicine in the FDA’s Center for Drug Evaluation and Research. “The FDA will continue to work with the rare disease community to advance drug development for patients with Menkes disease and other rare conditions.”
Menkes disease is a neurodegenerative disorder caused by a genetic defect that impairs a child’s ability to absorb copper. The disease is characterized by seizures, failure to gain weight and grow, developmental delays, and intellectual disability. It leads to abnormalities of the vascular system, bladder, bowel, bones, muscles, and nervous system. Children with classical Menkes (90% of those with the disease) begin to develop symptoms in infancy and typically do not live past three years. It affects approximately one in every 100,000-250,000 live births worldwide and is more common in boys.
Zycubo is a copper replacement therapy given by subcutaneous injection. It delivers copper in a form that bypasses the genetic defect in intestinal absorption, allowing the body to better use the mineral.
The FDA evaluated Zycubo in two open-label, single-arm clinical trials in pediatric patients treated for up to three years. Overall survival was assessed by comparing treated patients to untreated patients from contemporaneous external control groups. The analysis included 66 treated patients and 17 untreated patients, most of whom were from the United States.
Children who began treatment within four weeks of birth had a 78% reduction in the risk of death compared with untreated patients. Nearly half of early-treated patients survived beyond six years, and some survived more than 12 years. No patients in the untreated control group survived beyond six years. Children who started treatment later than four weeks after birth also experienced a substantial survival benefit.
The most common side effects reported with Zycubo included infections, respiratory problems, seizures, vomiting, fever, anemia and injection site reactions. Because copper can accumulate in the body, patients receiving Zycubo should be closely monitored for potential toxicity.
“This approval marks an unprecedented advance for children with Menkes disease,” said Tracy Beth Hoeg, M.D., Ph.D., Acting Director of CDER. “The company demonstrated a large improvement in overall survival compared with untreated patients, using an innovative trial design that addressed the challenges of studying an ultra-rare disease.”
This application received Priority Review, Fast Track Designation, Breakthrough Therapy Designation, and Orphan Drug Designation. The FDA approved Zycubo for Sentynl Therapeutics.
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The FDA, an agency within the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, protects the public health by assuring the safety, effectiveness, and security of human and veterinary drugs, vaccines and other biological products for human use, and medical devices. The agency also is responsible for the safety and security of our nation’s food supply, cosmetics, dietary supplements, radiation-emitting electronic products, and for regulating tobacco products.
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