Investing.com — Apple’s iPhone demand in China is showing signs of recovery, according to Jefferies analyst Edison Lee, which said growth in the world’s second-largest economy “has accelerated,” challenging its earlier negative outlook.
Lee told investors that his firm’s tracking shows “continued shortening in lead time in all models and markets, with only a few exceptions.”
He added that “17P’s lead time has almost disappeared and 17 Air in China also saw lead time fall to nearly zero,” while “the base model still shows the strongest trend in lead time.”
Despite shorter delivery times, Jefferies stated that “industry checks suggest growth in China has accelerated.”
The firm estimated that “for the first five weeks since iPhone 17 shipment started, total iPhone unit growth reached 19% year over year,” a figure it described as “very impressive” and one that “continues to challenge our negative view on AAPL.”
However, Jefferies warned that the recent momentum could come at the expense of profitability.
“While volume growth may be better than expected, we remain concerned about the risk of margin miss, given aggressive pricing in the base model of 17 and lack of ASP increase for 17 PM despite higher BOM costs,” wrote Lee.
The analyst also pointed to a “material shrinkage in resale premium” across all iPhone 17 variants, noting that “all variants of 17 Pro finally went into discounts from premium, which is the first time since launch.”
Jefferies concluded that while China and Hong Kong “show the strongest demand among the six markets we track,” product mix and rising memory costs “would create margin risk in 2026 for the entire smartphone industry.”
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ECRS Mk1 is the next-generation Eurofighter radar system that will be put into service with the German and Spanish Air Forces. Based on multi-channel AESA technology and a high-end processor, ECRS Mk1 will further enhance the capabilities of the Eurofighter. The architecture of the ECRS Mk1 has been developed to enhance the entire spectrum of combat aircraft missions, including advanced air-to-air and high-resolution air-to-ground capabilities, as well as passive and active electronic warfare capabilities. In total approximately 200 ECRS Mk1 will be delivered to the German and Spanish Air Forces.
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on Oct. 20, 2025 in New York City.
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Stocks jumped to new records on Monday after U.S. and China officials cooled tensions over the weekend, laying the groundwork for President Donald Trump and China President Xi Jinping to clinch a trade deal this week.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 230 points, or 0.5%. The S&P 500 climbed 0.9%, while the Nasdaq Composite was up 1.5%, bolstered by a rise in chip stocks like Nvidia. All three major averages had notched fresh all-time intraday highs in the session.
“I think we have a very successful framework for the leaders to discuss on Thursday,” said Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent from the ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur.
The framework potentially includes a delay of China’s rare earths restrictions that caused the latest trade flare-up, a spiking of Trump’s threatened 100% tariffs on China that were to start Nov. 1 and a resumption of Chinese purchases of soybeans. The agreement may include a resolution of the TikTok dispute with the U.S. getting a deal for the U.S. version of the social video app.
“I have a lot of respect for President Xi, and we are going to come away with the deal,” Trump said on Monday from Air Force One.
Chipmakers, the sector with the most to lose from tensions with China, supported the rally Monday. Nvidia rose about 2%, while Broadcom gained nearly 1%. Tesla and Apple also added around 3% and 1%, respectively, with the latter nearing $4 trillion in market cap.
Qualcomm rose to a new high after the company announced new artificial intelligence chips, putting it in competition with Nvidia and AMD. The stock was last up almost 20%.
“Details are still limited, and nothing will be finalized until the Trump-Xi meeting, but a renewed truce now seems near-certain, with China likely fully delaying their rare earth export controls for a year—better than the alternative of an agreement to grant licenses,” said Tobin Marcus of Wolf Research in a note. “This overall better-than-expected outcome should be bullish for markets this week, assuming the Trump-Xi meeting goes well.”
Stocks are coming off a bullish week, with all three major indices hitting record highs last Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average posted its first-ever close above the 47,000 mark. The S&P 500 touched 6,800 for the first time ever Friday. All three major benchmarks posted their second week in a row of gains.
Investors expect the Federal Reserve to slash rates on Wednesday, particularly after the Bureau of Labor Statistics released slightly cooler-than-expected inflation data last week. Big Tech companies’ upcoming earnings reports are also on tap. Several “Magnificent Seven” stocks, including Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms and Microsoft, will release their third-quarter results this week.
While investors were encouraged by improving China-U.S. relations, a setback with Canada kept their enthusiasm in check. Trump on Saturday put an additional 10% tariff on Canada imports for not pulling a TV ad featuring former President Ronald Reagan knocking tariffs fast enough.
Selling cash-secured puts is a common, relatively conservative options-income generation strategy, but aligning strike selection and timing with technical indicators can significantly improve risk-adjusted returns. One variant I propose to simplify this process involves selling puts with approximately 60 days to expiration when the underlying stock is trading near its exponential moving average (EMA). This approach blends technical discipline, probabilistic pricing and time decay into a cohesive framework. The exponential moving average smooths price trends while weighting recent data more heavily than older prices. Traders use the 50-day EMA as a “mean reversion” guidepost — an area where prices often consolidate before continuing an established trend. When an underlying stock pulls back toward its EMA within an uptrend, option premiums tend to be richer due to increased implied volatility, yet the probability of a significant breakdown remains modest. Selling a put under those conditions, with roughly 60 days to expiration, positions the seller to capture elevated option premium while capturing the tendency for prices to revert toward the mean. Using options with approximately 60 days until expiration seeks to strike a balance between time decay and premium capture while also aligning with the moving average we’re using in this case. Short-dated monitoring Short-dated options (under 30 days) lose value rapidly, but they require constant monitoring and rolling, which increases transaction costs. Longer-dated options (90-180 days) decay slowly and have more “Vega” (sensitivity to changes in implied volatility). Vega exposure, whether long or short, isn’t a bad thing per se, but it’s a broader topic, beyond the scope of this article. At around two months to expiration, a put’s theta (time decay) is sufficient to provide meaningful daily income, while gamma (sensitivity to price changes) is low enough to prevent excessive risk from sharp short-term moves. The result is a moderate-duration position that benefits from both the passing of time and stability in the underlying price. The practical implementation is straightforward. Identify fundamentally sound equities or ETFs with steady uptrends and plot their 50-day EMA. When the “standstill yield” is attractive, sell an out-of-the-money put at a strike near the EMA. The chosen strike serves as both a technical and valuation anchor: If assigned, the investor acquires the stock at a level consistent with recent support and mean reversion expectations. The collected premium cushions downside risk and enhances the effective yield on capital at risk. This method aligns naturally with investors who seek equity exposure but prefer disciplined entry points. Selling a put is economically equivalent to setting a limit buy order at the strike price while being paid to wait. (In this case, one would need to pay the prevailing price of the put if one seeks to cancel it prior to expiration.) Should the stock rise, the option expires worthless, and the investor keeps the premium. Should it decline modestly and assignment occur, the investor acquires shares at a discount relative to pre-pullback levels. Either outcome can be favorable when applied systematically to quality names. Possible risks Which isn’t to say the strategy is without risk. Sudden macroeconomic shocks or trend reversals can push prices well below the EMA, leading to mark-to-market losses or assignments on declining stocks. Position sizing, diversification and the willingness to hold or roll positions are crucial risk controls. Nonetheless, over multiple cycles, selling 60-day puts at or below the EMA can serve as a quantitative “buy-the-dip” strategy — transforming volatility into income and replacing impulsive timing with structured probability management. As an example, consider Rocket Lab Corp (RKLB) . One could consider selling the December 55 puts, a strike just above the 50-day exponential moving average of $54.60. As of Friday’s late-afternoon mid-market prices, those puts were trading at ~$4.65, or 7.2% of the current stock price. In the worst case, an investor would purchase the underlying shares at $50.35, ~22% below the current stock price, the level at which it traded before its most recent breakout in late September. DISCLOSURES: None. All opinions expressed by the CNBC Pro contributors are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet or another medium. THE ABOVE CONTENT IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY . THIS CONTENT IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSITUTE FINANCIAL, INVESTMENT, TAX OR LEGAL ADVICE OR A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY OR OTHER FINANCIAL ASSET. THE CONTENT IS GENERAL IN NATURE AND DOES NOT REFLECT ANY INDIVIDUAL’S UNIQUE PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES. THE ABOVE CONTENT MIGHT NOT BE SUITABLE FOR YOUR PARTICULAR CIRCUMSTANCES. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR. Click here for the full disclaimer.
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods downgraded Berkshire Hathaway to underperform, warning that Warren Buffett’s succession risk and a slew of business-specific headwinds could weigh on the conglomerate’s earnings and share performance over the next year. The brokerage slashed its rating to the equivalent of sell from neutral, and cut its price target for Berkshire’s Class A shares to $700,000 from $740,000, implying a 5% downside from Friday’s close of $738,500. “Beyond our ongoing concerns surrounding macro uncertainty and Berkshire’s historically unique succession risk … we think the shares will underperform as earnings challenges emerge and/or persist,” analysts led by Meyer Shields wrote in a note to clients. KBW said the company’s core businesses — from auto insurer Geico to railroad Burlington Northern Santa Fe — are likely to face simultaneous pressures in the year ahead, reflecting a mix of cyclical and structural challenges across the conglomerate’s portfolio. The analysts pointed to softer insurance investment income, weaker railroad growth and shrinking energy tax credits as mounting headwinds for Berkshire’s sprawling operations. The Omaha-based conglomerate has underperformed the S & P 500 this year as the stock tumbled double digits from all-time highs after the 95-year-old Buffett in May announced he’s stepping down as CEO at the year-end after six legendary decades. The sell-off partially reflects the so-called Buffett premium, or the extra price investors are willing to pay because of the billionaire’s unmatched record and exceptional capital allocation skills. BRK.A YTD mountain Berkshire Hathaway year to date Berkshire’s succession uncertainty reflects “Warren Buffett’s likely unrivaled reputation and what we see as unfortunately inadequate disclosure that will probably deter investors once they can no longer rely on Mr. Buffett’s presence at Berkshire Hathaway,” KBW said in the note titled “Many Things Moving in the Wrong Direction.” Berkshire’s B shares are up 8.6%. in 2024 as of Friday, compared to the 15.5% year-to-date gain for the S & P 500. The stock is lagging the equity benchmark by 6.9 percentage points, marking the largest gap it’s been all year. Moving in the Wrong Direction? For the second quarter, Berkshire’s operating profit dipped 4% year over year to $11.16 billion, impacted by a decline in insurance underwriting. KBW expects insurance profitability to weaken further as Geico lowers personal auto rates and ramps up marketing spending in an effort to regain market share. Berkshire Hathaway Reinsurance Group is also facing a less favorable backdrop, the firm said. A mild hurricane season has weighed on property-catastrophe reinsurance pricing, a trend that could reduce both premium volumes and profitability in the coming quarters, KBW said. Investment income, a key earnings driver in recent years, is expected to soften as well. With short-term interest rates declining, returns on Berkshire’s massive cash and Treasury portfolio are likely to come under pressure, limiting a source of steady income that has bolstered recent results. Buffett’s cash hoard of $344.1 billion remained near a record high at the end of June. At the railroad division, Burlington Northern Santa Fe’s inflation-adjusted revenue has historically moved in tandem with U.S.–China trade activity. KBW cautioned that persistent tariff pressures and weaker trade flows could continue to constrain growth. Berkshire Hathaway Energy also may see its profitability erode as the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” accelerates the phase-out of clean-energy tax credits, KBW said. The policy shift could diminish the returns of future renewable projects and weigh on the conglomerate’s long-term energy earnings, it said. The conglomerate is set to report third-quarter earnings Saturday morning.
(Reuters) -Qualcomm on Monday unveiled two artificial intelligence chips for data centers, with commercial availability from next year, as it pushes to diversify beyond smartphones and expand into the fast-growing AI infrastructure market.
Shares of Qualcomm surged nearly 15% on the news.
The new chips, called AI200 and AI250, are designed for improved memory capacity and running AI applications, or inference, and will be available in 2026 and 2027, respectively.
Global investment in AI chips has soared as cloud providers, chipmakers and enterprises rush to build infrastructure capable of supporting complex, large language models, chatbots and other generative AI tools.
Nvidia chips, however, underpin much of the current AI boom.
Qualcomm, to strengthen its AI portfolio, agreed to buy Alphawave in June, which designs semiconductor tech for data centers, for about $2.4 billion.
In May, Qualcomm also said it would make custom data center central processing units that use technology from Nvidia to connect to the firm’s artificial intelligence chips.
Qualcomm said the new chips support common AI frameworks and tools, with advanced software support, and added they will lower the total cost of ownership for enterprises.
The San Diego-based company also unveiled accelerator cards and racks based on the new chips.
Earlier this month, peer Intel announced a new artificial intelligence chip called Crescent Island for the data center that it plans to launch next year.
(Reporting by Harshita Mary Varghese in Bengaluru; Editing by Vijay Kishore)
Donald Trump is on course to push US debt levels above those of Italy and Greece by the end of the decade after wide-ranging tax cuts and increased defence spending, according to International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts.
Illustrating the rising debt levels in Washington and efforts made by Rome and Athens to bring spending under control after the 2008 financial crash and Covid-19 pandemic, the IMF predicts the US will see its debts climb from 125% to 143% of annual income by 2030, while Italy’s will flatline at about 137%.
Greece is on track to cut the ratio of debt to gross domestic product (GDP) from 146% to 130% over the same period. According to IMF data, Athens has tackled a budget overspend that raced to 210% as a proportion of GDP in 2020.
Amid tax cuts for high earners, the US is expected to run annual budget deficits of more than 7% over the next five years, while Italy is due to cut its spending shortfall this year to 2.9%, allowing it to meet a 3% limit set by Brussels a year early, in analysis first reported in the Financial Times.
Trump increased US government spending and cut federal taxes in the “big, beautiful bill”, passed by Congress in the summer, forcing the White House to rely more heavily on borrowing to fund annual spending.
The US president reversed efforts under the previous Biden administration to limit the size of the US deficit, offering tax cuts that will benefit mostly middle and high income groups. He has also pledged to build a “golden dome” defence shield, which could cost almost $1tn.
Spending increases could push the budget deficit higher by $7tn a year by the time Trump is due to leave office in January 2029.
Both Italy and Greece have committed to maintaining primary budget surpluses, which entail cuts in spending to below the incomes from tax receipts.
Italy’s growth rate is expected to average 0.5% over the next couple of years. Its population is falling due to a declining birthrate and a level of emigration that hit 200,000 last year, but Italy has seen average household incomes recover.
Lorenzo Codogno, the head of Lorenzo Codogno Macro Advisors and a former chief economist at Italy’s treasury department, said there was pressure on Giorgia Meloni’s government to increase spending in the wake of Trump’s tariffs and his demands for bigger European defence budgets.
He said: “The economy and public finances remain vulnerable to a sudden negative shift in the global scenario.”
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Mahmood Pradhan, head of global macro at the Amundi Investment Institute, told the FT: “It is a symbolic moment, and according to the Congressional Budget Office the projections are for US debt to carry on rising – that is the impact of running perpetual deficits.
“But Italy has a weaker growth outlook than the US, so this should not be read as meaning Italy is out of the woods.”
James Knightley, chief international economist at ING, said: “Many US politicians and investors look down somewhat on Europe and its slow growth and struggling economies, but when you have metrics like this, the conversation changes.”
