Category: 3. Business

This is an audio transcript of the FT News Briefing podcast episode: ‘Predicting 2026 — Will the Magnificent Seven tech stocks continue to diverge?’

Sonja Hutson
Good morning from the Financial Times. Today is Friday, January 2nd. I’m Sonja Hutson and this is your FT News Briefing.

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This whole week, we’ve been looking back at 2025 and trying to predict what’ll happen in 2026. It’s our last show in this series, and this time we are talking all about tech stocks.

This time last year, the Magnificent Seven were flying high. These are tech stocks like Amazon and Apple and they basically propped up the entire US market. The question on everyone’s mind was, will their moment in the sun come to an end? FT columnist Gillian Tett had an answer to that in the FT’s Forecasting the world in 2025 list of predictions. She said they’re not gonna fall, but they won’t ride a lot higher either.

What actually happened? Well, it was a bit of a mixed bag. Gillian is here to tell us more and make a prediction for 2026. Hi, Gillian.

Gillian Tett
Hi. Good to talk to you.

Sonja Hutson
Good to have you. So when we say Magnificent Seven, we’re talking about Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla. Why did you make that prediction about a year ago?

Gillian Tett
Well, the primary reason I made that prediction last year was because the level of market concentration around the Magnificent Seven — in terms of how much they represent of the overall equity indices — had reached such extreme levels from a historical perspective. That simple historical passion making would suggest that, almost inevitably that was going to reverse.

And on top of that, it seemed to me that there was an awful lot of hype and over excitement about the degree to which some of the tangible fruits of the AI revolution would actually come in to boost these Magnificent Seven’s earnings. Yes, the technology is potentially revolutionary. Yes, it’s probably gonna have a very big impact on the economy going forward, but how quickly it’s actually gonna put some of these companies in the lead forever is not clear to my mind.

Sonja Hutson
Yeah. I think we’re definitely still grappling with a lot of those questions. But let’s run through what actually happened to these stocks. Alphabet did go up more than 60 per cent. Nvidia was up more than 30 per cent, Tesla, up around 20, but then the rest of the Mag 7 was up less than 60 per cent and Amazon was actually only in the single digits.

Why do you think there was this divergence?

Gillian Tett
Well, to a certain extent, the recovery of Alphabet stemmed from the fact that it was seen to be losing the AI race 18 months ago. You had upstarts like OpenAI suddenly seeking to take a lead. And Alphabet has really come roaring back and shown that it does have tremendous amount of research capability.

And even though it hasn’t necessarily deployed all of its innovations as quickly as some of the others. A lot of that’s due to it taking a more cautious, some might say, responsible stance to how it develops its product. So that’s the story of Alphabet. Some of the other ones, well, it’s partly because some of them let ahead earlier on and are now slowing down.

But the really important point of stress is that. I think that although many investors are still very excited about the AI and tech boom, there is the beginning of a much more discerning approach to working out which stocks are going to perform well and which aren’t. Because history shows it’s very unlikely that they’re all going to be winners.

Sonja Hutson
OK, so let’s talk about your predictions for the Mag 7 in 2026. It sounds like, from what you’re saying, that you’re expecting to continue seeing this divergence in fortunes among the Mag 7 stocks

Gillian Tett
2026, it’s gonna be shaped by attention between the fact that on the one hand, AI is a genuinely transformational technology and as a result, the companies which emerge as winners will really emerge as winners in the future.

Just as we saw in the railway mania back 150 years ago that there were some big winners that came out of that; there were also lots and lots of big losers, though and it’s worth stressing that some investors lost a lot of money as a result and I suspect that’ll play out again. But going forward in 2026, you know, we know on the one hand there is this revolution technology. We know, on the other hand, that some American companies are absolutely global leaders and reinforcing their market dominance as we speak. So that should propel stocks higher. However, there are a number of factors that could provide real risks.

Sonja Hutson
What are some of those risks?

Gillian Tett
One is a potential rise in interest rates because, increasingly, the AI Capex is being funded by debt, not just free cash flow or anything else.

Another potential risk is that there could be a political backlash against the AI companies because, although President Trump has been very supportive, in his own policymaking, what you’re starting to see is a national populace like Steve Bannon, increasingly angry with what might be called the “broligarchs”— the elites who are shaping much of this discourse.

But the third and biggest issue in my mind is whether we’re going to see new technologies or new platforms or new approaches to AI emerge in a way that could leapfrog the current framework that the Magnificent Seven are betting on. And by that I mean most of the Magnificent Seven are using proprietary technologies, but we’re seeing in China open source AI approaches.

We are seeing all types of bootlegging approaches that are much cheaper and less energy-guzzling. That’s incredibly important because America is critically short of the energy or need the electricity or need to power these data centres. So any of those factors could potentially create quite a jolt for investors about their assumptions over who’s gonna win or lose.

Sonja Hutson
Is there anything that could get all of the Mag 7 stocks riding high again, like they were in 2024, or are we just kind of past that point and not able to return to it?

Gillian Tett
I think it’s hard to see a synchronised rise in all of the tech stocks going forward because there is so much good news priced in.

However, the thing that would really boost the tech stocks is if it becomes clear that non-tech companies are deploying AI and these new technological breakthroughs in a really meaningful way that’s gonna change the revenues. Because one of the striking things thus far is that, for the most part, we don’t have a lot of evidence of ordinary companies making dramatic productivity and revenue gains on the back of their deployment of tech. Now that may just be a time-lag effect.

The other things that would help would be if there was a sign that America’s getting serious about creating an energy policy that would address the shortfalls of energy around data centres. Above all else, that means getting the transmission lines and the grid sorted out. Not so much just the actual energy generation, but that’s been very hard until now. So if Washington gets serious about forcing a dramatic upgrade in the energy grid capacity, I think again that could make an impact as well.

Sonja Hutson
Gillian, what do you think the change in fortunes of the Mag 7 taught us about tech stocks or just the equities market as a whole?

Gillian Tett
So, one lesson is that, you know, what goes up can sometimes come down — we’ve seen that over and over again in history. Another lesson, though, perhaps, is to go back to the railway mania of the late 19th century and remember that that mania did create railroads — which was an incredible technological breakthrough that we’re all benefiting from today — it made a few people rich, but it also made a lot of people big losers when the railway companies (inaudible) went bust. So bubbles can bring long-term benefits, but they can certainly cause a short term pain. The problem is that no one really knows when they’re gonna pop.

Sonja Hutson
Gillian Tett is a columnist and member of the FT editorial board. Thanks, Gillian.

Gillian Tett
Thank you.

Sonja Hutson
You can read more on 2025 and 2026 predictions when you click the links in our show notes.

This has been your daily FT News Briefing. Check back next week for the latest business news.

The FT News Briefing was produced this week by Victoria Craig and me, Sonja Hutson. Our show is edited by Marc Filippino. Our show is mixed by Kelly Garry and Kent Militzer. We had help this week from Peter Barber, Michael Lello, David da Silva and Gavin Kallmann. The FT’s acting co-head of audio is Topher Forhecz. And our theme song is by Metaphor Music.

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The S&P/ASX200 was up 19.4 points early Friday afternoon, or 0.22 per cent, at 8,733.7, while the broader All Ordinaries rose 21.6 points, or 0.24 per cent, to 9,040.4.

Nine of the market’s 11 sectors were higher, with materials and technology stocks the only sectors in negative territory.

Uranium producers surge on nuclear news

The energy sector was the day’s strongest performer, rising 0.8 per cent after strong gains among uranium producers.

The move followed news that US-based Duke Energy had filed an initial application to build a new nuclear reactor in North Carolina.

Paladin Energy, Deep Yellow, Boss Energy and Lotus Resources were all up just over five per cent. NexGen Energy gained 2.3 per cent, while Bannerman Energy climbed 3.9 per cent.

Elsewhere in the energy sector, Woodside Energy edged 0.5 per cent higher, while Santos slipped 0.1 per cent.

Biotech stocks extend gains

Health care stocks also moved higher, led by a strong showing among smaller biotechnology companies.

Mesoblast and Telix Pharmaceuticals both rose 2.1 per cent. Racura Oncology jumped 6.6 per cent, Clarity Pharmaceuticals added 7.8 per cent and Orthocell advanced 5.5 per cent.

Goldminers fall after Northern Star update

Goldminers were under pressure after Northern Star released a weaker-than-expected production update, even as gold prices held firm at US$4,375 an ounce.

The company said production had been hit by a series of “isolated negative events”, including a primary crusher failure at its Kalgoorlie processing centre that disrupted output for four weeks.

Northern Star shares dropped 9.5 per cent to a near two-month low of $24.19. Evolution Mining slipped 0.2 per cent and Westgold fell 0.4 per cent.

Big miners and banks post modest gains

In contrast, the major diversified miners were higher. BHP, Fortescue and Rio Tinto all gained 0.5 per cent.

All four major banks also traded higher. 

Australian dollar little changed

The Australian dollar was trading at 66.97 US cents, slightly up from 66.95 US cents at 3.30pm AEDT on Wednesday.

PROVIDENCE, R.I. – January 1, 2026 – Today, Revolution Wind LLC (“Revolution Wind”), a 50/50 joint venture between Global Infrastructure Partners’ Skyborn Renewables and Ørsted, filed a supplemental complaint in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia challenging the lease suspension order issued on December 22, 2025 by the U.S. Department of the Interior’s Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM), to be followed by a motion for a preliminary injunction.  

While Revolution Wind continues to seek to work constructively with the Administration and other stakeholders towards an expeditious and durable resolution of this matter, it believes that the lease suspension order violates applicable law. As was the case with the August 2025 stop-work order, the Revolution Wind Project (“Project”) faces substantial harm from a continuation of the lease suspension order. As a result, litigation is a necessary step to protect the rights of the Project.  

Revolution Wind secured all required federal and state permits in 2023, following extensive reviews that began more than nine years ago. As a requirement of the permitting process, the Project engaged in years-long consultation with the U.S Department of Defense [War] Military Aviation and Installation Assurance Siting Clearinghouse to address potential impacts to national security and defense capabilities from construction through to operation of the Project. Those consultations resulted in a fully executed formal agreement between the Department of War, the Department of the Air Force, and Revolution Wind outlining mitigation measures by the Project.  

Revolution Wind has spent and committed billions of dollars in reliance upon, and has met the requests of, a thorough review process. Additional federal reviews and approvals included the U.S. Coast Guard, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, National Marine Fisheries Service, and many other agencies. 

Revolution Wind is in advanced stages of construction and is expected to be ready to deliver reliable, affordable power to American homes in 2026. The Project, now approximately 87 percent complete, has already installed all offshore foundations and 58 of 65 wind turbines. Export cable installation is complete, and both offshore substations have been installed. At the time of the lease suspension order, the Project was expected to begin generating power as soon as January 2026.    

The Project will strengthen electric grid reliability as a critical part of the Northeast energy supply, which is crucial to meeting growing energy demand. The Project is set to provide affordable power to more than 350,000 homes in 2026 under 20-year power purchase agreements with utilities in Connecticut and Rhode Island. This includes supporting the growing power needs of data centers and AI, with experts including ISO-NE, the independent grid operator, warning that halting the Project may increase electricity costs and lower reliability for the region.   

Revolution Wind has supported thousands of American jobs across construction, operations, shipbuilding, and manufacturing, including more than 1,000 union jobs that have already contributed 2 million union work hours to this Project. The Project is a part of Ørsted’s investment into American energy generation, grid upgrades, and port infrastructure, as well as a supply chain, including U.S. shipbuilding and manufacturing extending to more than 40 states.  

Sunrise Wind LLC, a separate project and wholly owned subsidiary of Ørsted that also received a lease suspension order on December 22 continues to evaluate all options to resolve the matter, including engagement with relevant agencies and stakeholders and considering legal proceedings. 

For further information, please contact:

Ørsted Global Media Relations 
Michael Korsgaard  
+45 99 55 95 52 
globalmedia@orsted.com  

Revolution Wind Media Contact 
Meaghan Wims 
+1 401-261-1641 
mwims@duffyshanley.com 

Ørsted Investor Relations 
Valdemar Hoegh Andersen 
+45 99 55 56 71 
Ir@orsted.com 

About Ørsted
Ørsted is a global leader in developing, constructing, and operating offshore wind farms, with a core focus on Europe. Backed by more than 30 years of experience in offshore wind, Ørsted has 10.2 GW of installed offshore capacity and 8.1 GW under construction. Ørsted’s total installed renewable energy capacity spanning Europe, Asia Pacific, and North America exceeds 18 GW across a portfolio that also includes onshore wind, solar power, energy storage, bioenergy plants, and energy trading. Widely recognised as a global sustainability leader, Ørsted is guided by its vision of a world that runs entirely on green energy. Headquartered in Denmark, Ørsted employs approximately 8,000 people. Ørsted’s shares are listed on Nasdaq Copenhagen (Orsted). In 2024, the group’s operating profit excluding new partnerships and cancellation fees was DKK 24.8 billion (EUR 3.3 billion). Visit orsted.com or follow us on LinkedIn and Instagram. 

 

Attachments

China’s BYD is set to overtake Elon Musk’s Tesla as the world’s biggest seller of electric vehicles (EVs), marking the first time it has outpaced its American rival for annual sales.

On Thursday, BYD said that sales of its battery-powered cars rose last year by almost 28% to more than 2.25 million.

Tesla, which is due to reveal its total sales for 2025 later on Friday, last week published analyst’s estimates suggesting that it had sold around 1.65 million vehicles for the year as a whole.

The US firm has faced a tough year with a mixed reception to new offerings, unease over Musk’s political activities and intensifying competition from Chinese rivals.

In October, Tesla introduced lower-priced versions of its two best-selling models in the US in a bid to boost sales. It had faced criticism that it had been slow to release new and more affordable options to stay competitive.

Musk, who is already the world’s richest man, is tasked with significantly boosting Tesla’s sales and stock market value over the next decade to secure a record-breaking pay package. The deal, which was approved by shareholders in November, could see him getting a payout of as much as $1tn (£740bn).

As part of the agreement, Musk also has to sell a million humanoid robots over the next ten years. Tesla has invested heavily in its “Optimus” product and self-driving “Robotaxis”.

Tesla sales slumped in the first three months of 2025 after a backlash against Musk’s role in US President Donald Trump’s administration.

Besides Tesla, the multi-billionaire’s business interests also include the social media platform X, the rocket firm SpaceX and the Boring Company, which digs tunnels.

Those commitments, along with running Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency (Doge), led some investors to suggest that Musk was not focusing enough on Tesla.

Since then Musk has pledged to “significantly” cut back his role in the US government.

Despite BYD’s rapid expansion in recent years, its sales growth slowed in 2025 to the weakest rate in five years.

The Shenzhen-based firm faces mounting competition in China, its key market, from a surge of EV makers like XPeng and Nio.

Still, BYD remains a global EV powerhouse as its prices often undercut rival carmakers.

The company’s rapid expansion – especially in Latin America, South East Asia and parts of Europe – comes despite many countries imposing steep tariffs on Chinese EVs.

In October, BYD said the UK had become its biggest market outside China. The firm said that its sales in Britain surged by 880% in the year to the end of September, driven by strong demand for the plug-in hybrid version of its Seal U sports utility vehicle (SUV).

While adoption in Spain and Italy has been more gradual compared to other European markets, its growth potential is substantial. “Spain and Portugal are among the largest waste producers in Europe,” says Ceño, “which positions them as key markets for the development of this technology. Moreover, the current European regulatory framework is significantly accelerating its deployment.”

Beyond Europe, BBVA’s investment banking team sees strong potential in Latin America, especially in countries with a solid agricultural and livestock base such as Brazil and Argentina. The experience and progress achieved in Europe will serve as a blueprint for the global scale-up of biomethane, supporting a more inclusive and sustainable energy transition.

Leadership in financing and expert advisory

BBVA has taken a proactive approach to financing biomethane projects, with a strong emphasis on project finance as an effective model to mobilise sustainable investment. This approach allows financing to be based on the cash flows generated by the project itself, aligning stakeholder interests, distributing risk and enabling scalability.

“We have been pioneers in financing biomethane projects under project finance structures,” says Karla Ceño. “Thanks to this financial solution, we have participated in landmark transactions such as Ence’s project in La Galera (Spain), the financing of Verdalia, and the three plants closed with Total at the end of last year. One of the most notable examples in Europe this year was the structuring of our first biomethane financing in Italy alongside Suma Capital, which involved the conversion of seven biogas plants and has paved the way for the financing of additional portfolios in the country.”

“We have been pioneers in financing biomethane projects under project finance structures”

These transactions demonstrate BBVA CIB’s ability to structure advanced financial solutions tailored to each client’s needs. Its deep sector expertise, combined with a global outlook, enables the integration of various clean technologies into long-term strategies, supporting enterprises across all sectors in transforming their production models.

The push for biomethane is part of this broader strategy to support the energy transition. This technology falls under the “green molecules” vertical, one of the four strategic pillars of Cleantech, alongside energy storage, electric mobility and the CO₂ value chain, all of which BBVA promotes to accelerate the decarbonisation of the corporate sector.

With its ability to mobilise global investment, structure sustainable financing and provide expert advisory, BBVA reaffirms its commitment to innovation and sustainability. Its mission is to help companies transform their production models, making them more competitive, efficient and environmentally responsible. Biomethane is not only a bet on a proven technology, it is a tangible example of BBVA’s role as a strategic partner in the transition towards a decarbonised and circular economy.

• Neema Premji and Louise Pratt appointed to Water
  Corporation Board
• Deputy Chair Helen Creed to step down from the
  Board effective 31 December 2025

Two
influential leaders with decades of experience in governance, infrastructure,
and public policy have been appointed to Water Corporation’s Board.

Neema
Premji and Louise Pratt have joined as Non-Executive Directors, reinforcing the
utility’s commitment to strong leadership and strategic direction.

Ms
Premji is a highly experienced Non-Executive Director and Independent Chair, who
currently serves on the Audit and Risk Committee for the Department of Local
Government, Sport and Cultural Industries.

A
civil engineer, she brings more than 25 years of experience across
infrastructure, utilities, mining and government trading enterprises, with
expertise in financial and asset management, strategic planning and corporate
governance.

Ms
Pratt is a respected leader, social advocate and communications professional with
two decades of experience in community, government and parliamentary roles. She
has served in both the Upper Houses of State and Federal Parliament, most
recently as a WA Senator.

During
her time in the Australian Parliament, Ms Pratt engaged in extensive committee
work, including as Chair of the Senate Finance and Public Administration
Legislation Committee.

Both
non-executive appointments are for a three-year term.

Deputy
Chair Helen Creed stepped down on 31 December 2025 and a new Deputy Chair will
be announced in due course.

Water
Corporation Chief Executive Officer Pat Donovan also concludes his tenure on
the Board. In 2023, his term as CEO was renewed for five years and he was
appointed Executive Director for two years to provide continuity during the
Board’s leadership transition. He remains as CEO.

Comments attributed to Water Minister Don
Punch:

“The
appointment of Neema Premji and Louise Pratt introduces fresh skills and
insights to Water Corporation’s Board, while maintaining a depth of experience
to support robust oversight and effective decision-making.

“Ms
Premji brings exceptional expertise in governance and infrastructure, while Ms
Pratt’s distinguished parliamentary career and social advocacy will strengthen the
ability of Water Corporation to deliver for the community.

“Their
appointment also reflects the Cook Government’s continued commitment to
increasing female representation on Government boards.

“I
also want to thank outgoing Deputy Chair Helen Creed for her leadership and
service during her tenure.”

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