Category: 3. Business

  • US bank stress tests made less onerous by Federal Reserve

    US bank stress tests made less onerous by Federal Reserve

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    The US Federal Reserve has announced plans for a major overhaul of its annual banking stress tests in response to a legal challenge by Wall Street groups against the regulator’s main tool for setting their capital levels.

    The changes the Fed announced on Friday, including proposals to disclose and seek feedback on the scenarios and models it uses to test the resilience of banks, will make the exercise much less onerous for the biggest US lenders.

    The changes to its stress test models and scenarios “are not expected to materially change capital requirements for firms” the central bank said, estimating they would fall by a “negligible” amount.

    It added its revamp “seeks to improve the transparency and public accountability of the supervisory stress test, while ensuring that the stress test remains an effective tool for understanding and assessing risk and retaining appropriate risk sensitivity and risk capture in capital requirements”.

    But there was dissent on the Fed board about the changes. Michael Barr, a member of the Fed board of governors, said he could not support the proposals because they would “make the stress test weaker and less credible” by leading to “overly optimistic projections” and opening the process up to “gaming by banks”.

    His successor as Fed vice-chair for supervision, Michelle Bowman, called the proposals “excellent”, adding she was disappointed “long-standing issues with the stress testing framework were not addressed proactively, but instead only after a lawsuit became inevitable”.

    The move comes as US regulators are planning to rework many of their important rules for banks under pressure from President Donald Trump’s administration to strip back regulation to support growth and investment.

    Since the Fed started subjecting the biggest American banks to stress tests in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, the comprehensive capital analysis and review (CCAR) process has become a crucial mechanism for controlling capital requirements in the sector.

    However, Wall Street executives have long complained about the Fed’s lack of transparency over the models used in the process and the high volatility in the results each year, which have occasionally required lenders to pare back their dividend payments.

    The Fed on Friday said it would reduce the amount of supporting documents and data that banks have to disclose as part of the process by 10,000 pages on average per lender.

    In the 2026 test, banks will have to gauge how they perform in a scenario where US unemployment rises to 10 per cent, a fall of nearly a third in nominal home prices and a 40 per cent decline in commercial property prices.

    “The stress tests have been the strongest driver of capital requirements for the biggest US banks,” said Douglas Elliott, a partner at consultants Oliver Wyman. “The changes are likely, in practice, to loosen this constraint to some extent.”

    The Fed estimated its model and scenario changes would reduce aggregate capital requirements for the biggest US banks by a “negligible” 0.25 percentage points on average compared to the past two years.

    It is set to disclose the details of the tests earlier in the process, under Friday’s proposals, and will also publish more comprehensive details of the methodology.

    Regulators require banks to have a minimum amount of capital to absorb losses in a crisis, but lenders prefer lower requirements to boost their profitability when measured against total equity capital.

    Late last year, a number of banking and business groups filed an unusual lawsuit against the Fed in a federal court in Ohio, arguing its stress tests were illegal because they lacked transparency. That prompted the central bank to commit to reform the process.

    The plaintiffs included the Bank Policy Institute, the American Bankers Association, the US Chamber of Commerce, the Ohio Bankers League and the Ohio Chamber of Commerce.

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  • Inflation Bond Market Faces ‘Debt-Limit Equivalent’ in CPI Delay – Bloomberg.com

    1. Inflation Bond Market Faces ‘Debt-Limit Equivalent’ in CPI Delay  Bloomberg.com
    2. White House: There will likely not be an inflation report next month. Stocks trade higher  TradingView
    3. Flying blind  Financial Times
    4. Data Blackout Leaves Fed Guessing Ahead of Rate Decision  WFMZ.com
    5. Government Shutdown Likely Means No Inflation Data Next Month for 1st Time in Decades  U.S. News & World Report

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  • The Bond Market’s Favorite Recession Signal Is on the Fritz

    The Bond Market’s Favorite Recession Signal Is on the Fritz

    The bond market hasn’t rung false recession alarms for this long in at least half a century.

    By Monday, it will be three full years since the market’s movements started suggesting a US downturn was on the horizon. That’s when 3-month Treasury yields first pushed above 10-year ones — inverting the yield curve — as traders anticipated the Federal Reserve’s steep interest-rate hikes would stall the economy.

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  • Beer can help tackle loneliness, says Heineken boss

    Beer can help tackle loneliness, says Heineken boss

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    Beer’s qualities as a “social lubricant” must play an important role in the debate about the harms of alcohol, the boss of Heineken has said.

    Dolf van den Brink said that “in this time of loneliness and a mental health epidemic”, beer’s role in bringing people together was “important to make part of the public debate”.

    Public health bodies are hardening their stance against alcohol, prompting the industry to talk up the non-health benefits of drinking such as socialising and to question new research into the dangers of moderate consumption. 

    “Beer is one of the oldest, if not the oldest, consumer goods category,” van den Brink told the Financial Times, pointing to early evidence of collective beer drinking in Mesopotamia and ancient Egypt. 

    Earlier this year the outgoing US surgeon general said alcoholic beverages should carry cancer warning labels, while the World Health Organization has been stepping up a campaign against moderate drinking.

    The Heineken chief said that while the discussion about the effect of moderate alcohol consumption on health was legitimate, it lacked nuance. 

    “We do believe that it’s not always reported in a balanced way, telling the full picture, because the relationship between alcohol and health is complex,” van den Brink said, while stressing that the debate needed to start by emphasising the harmful use of alcohol.

    “There is a legitimate debate in society now about the effect of moderate consumption of alcohol, including beer, on health. And again, we believe that needs to be a balanced and nuanced discussion.”

    Socialising had been at the core of Heineken’s marketing for decades and was “part of the essence of the product”, he said.

    Other brewers have also extolled the health benefits of their brews, with the “Guinness is good for you” slogan used for decades to promote the Irish stout.

    Heineken, Carlsberg and ABInbev have launched non-alcoholic versions of their beers in a bid to keep drinkers who want to moderate their consumption loyal to their brands. 

    On Thursday the Dutch brewer announced a five-year plan to get consumers to buy more beer and boost efficiency at the company, which, like other alcoholic drinks producers, has been hit by weaker consumer demand. 

    Van den Brink also warned there would be more brewery closures, but “not at a large scale”. 

    Investors have soured on Heineken after two years of weak performance and a string of earnings misses, with shares falling by a fifth from highs in 2023. 

    At an investor presentation in Seville on Thursday, the brewer said 80 per cent of its investment would go towards Amstel, Desperados, Moretti, Tiger and Heineken, with a quarter of its 350 brands getting none at all.

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  • US firms grapple with economic divide as lower income struggles mount – Reuters

    1. US firms grapple with economic divide as lower income struggles mount  Reuters
    2. Here’s where the economy is starting to show ‘K-shaped’ bifurcation  CNBC
    3. Has America’s economy gone K-shaped? Here’s what to know  WRBL
    4. VIDEO: What We Learned From the Latest Earnings Reports  TheStreet Pro
    5. Market Thoughts: Not dead yet!  J.P. Morgan Private Bank

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  • Porsche Swings to Near €1 Billion Loss After EV Pullback

    Porsche Swings to Near €1 Billion Loss After EV Pullback

    Porsche AG suffered its first quarterly loss as a listed company, with the luxury-car manufacturer taking a €3.1 billion ($3.6 billion) hit this year from scaling back its electric ambitions and US tariffs.

    The 911 maker reported a €966 million operating loss in the three months through September, after delaying some of its electric-vehicle plans and scrapping a program to build its own batteries. Slumping demand in China has also taken a toll.

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  • ‘AI Definitely Lowers The Barrier For Entry,’ Gig Economy Workers Wrestle With How To Proceed As The Technology Infiltrates Their Industries

    ‘AI Definitely Lowers The Barrier For Entry,’ Gig Economy Workers Wrestle With How To Proceed As The Technology Infiltrates Their Industries

    Benzinga and Yahoo Finance LLC may earn commission or revenue on some items through the links below.

    Cody Luongo, a media consultant in Charleston, South Carolina, recently became a full-time freelancer after losing his job. In this new phase of his professional life, Luongo told Business Insider that AI has become his “constant companion,” helping him do everything from drafting press releases to refining client pitches.

    “AI accelerates my work enough that I can do exponentially more for my clients with their allotted budgets,” he said.

    Luongo is far from the only freelancer using AI technology to leverage their skills and services. While integrating AI can be a smart and lucrative choice on an individual level, its impacts on the wider gig economy are decidedly more mixed.

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    A 2023 study by Washington University found that AI tools actually caused a decline in the amount of freelance work available and how much companies were willing to pay for that work. The study found that after ChatGPT’s release in 2022 the number of writing-related freelance jobs declined by 2% and monthly earnings declined by 5.2.%. For image-related workers, the drops were even sharper– AI tools led to a 3.7% decline in jobs and a 9.4% decrease in monthly earnings.

    “AI definitely lowers the barrier to entry, so it makes many activities accessible for more people,” Washington University assistant marketing professor Xiang Hui, who worked on the study, told BI. While that may sound like a positive thing, especially for those looking to break into the gig economy, Hui’s research shows it’s actually not.

    Even the most experienced freelancers aren’t safe from AI’s influence, Hui says.

    “The drop in earnings, if anything, is actually larger for high-quality freelancers in comparison with low-quality freelancers,” he told BI. “High quality doesn’t really protect freelancers.”

    Trending: The ‘ChatGPT of Marketing’ Just Opened a $0.81/Share Round — 10,000+ Investors Are Already In

    Hui attributes this to the fact that less experienced freelancers are able to punch up with AI. These new freelancers use the technology to refine their output until it’s “good enough,” and then push out passable work at a lower price point. While there’s still a clear difference between this “good enough” work and truly excellent work, the difference is negligible, and more experienced gig workers lose their competitive edge.

    There are also worries that AI is stifling genuine creativity, something freelancers are often relied on to provide in a world of homogenized output.

    “AI can raise the baseline of creativity, but fewer people are having breakthroughs. You need breakthroughs for innovation,” Shane Schweitzer, assistant professor of management and organizational development at Northeastern University’s D’Amore-McKim School of Business, told BI.

    See Also: Microsoft’s Climate Innovation Fund Just Backed This Farmland Manager — And Accredited Investors Can Join the Same Fund

    Erin Hatton, a sociology professor at the State University of New York at Buffalo, agrees. “[AI is] being adopted so broadly that it’s, at least eventually, going to prevent people from getting and using key skills,” she told BI.

    Overall, experts who spoke to BI agree that AI is beneficial in that it’s lifted the baseline standard of gig work, increasing overall quality. However, they also note that AI has made it much less likely for gig workers to produce something of truly outstanding quality.

    In short, AI is raising the floor and lowering the ceiling. “[AI is] not leveling the playing field necessarily,” Schweitzer says. “It’s just creating slightly more competence.”

    Read Next: GM-Backed EnergyX Is Solving the Lithium Supply Crisis — Invest Before They Scale Global Production

    Image: Shutterstock

    This article ‘AI Definitely Lowers The Barrier For Entry,’ Gig Economy Workers Wrestle With How To Proceed As The Technology Infiltrates Their Industries originally appeared on Benzinga.com

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  • US investigates Tesla’s ‘Mad Max’ high-speed driver assistance mode | Tesla

    US investigates Tesla’s ‘Mad Max’ high-speed driver assistance mode | Tesla

    The US main transportation safety regulator said on Friday it is seeking information from Tesla about a new driver assistance mode dubbed “Mad Max” that operates at higher speeds than other versions.

    Some drivers on social media report that Tesla vehicles using the more aggressive version of its full self-driving (FSD) system could operate above posted speed limits.

    “NHTSA is in contact with the manufacturer to gather additional information,” the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) said in a statement. “The human behind the wheel is fully responsible for driving the vehicle and complying with all traffic safety laws.”

    NHTSA earlier this month opened an investigation into 2.9m Tesla vehicles equipped with its full self-driving system due to the dozens of reports of traffic-safety violations and crashes.

    NHTSA said in opening the investigation it is reviewing 58 reports of issues involving traffic safety violations when using FSD, including 14 crashes and 23 injuries.

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    Tesla did not immediately respond to a request for comment, but last week reposted a social media post that described Mad Max mode as accelerating and weaving “through traffic at an incredible pace, all while still being super smooth. It drives your car like a sports car. If you are running late, this is the mode for you.”

    NHTSA said earlier this month that FSD – an assistance system that requires drivers to pay attention and intervene if needed – has “induced vehicle behavior that violated traffic safety laws”.

    The agency said it has six reports in which a Tesla vehicle, operating with full self-driving engaged, “approached an intersection with a red traffic signal, continued to travel into the intersection against the red light and was subsequently involved in a crash with other motor vehicles”.

    Tesla says FSD “will drive you almost anywhere with your active supervision, requiring minimal intervention” but does not make the car self-driving.

    Tesla’s full self-driving, which is more advanced than its autopilot system, has been under investigation by NHTSA for a year. In October 2024, NHTSA opened an investigation into 2.4m Tesla vehicles with FSD after four collisions in conditions of reduced roadway visibility. The Washington Post had previously reported the agency’s interest in the Mad Max mode.

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  • Pumpkins’ journey from ancient food staple to spicy fall obsession spans thousands of years

    Pumpkins’ journey from ancient food staple to spicy fall obsession spans thousands of years

    October in much of the U.S. brings cooler weather, vibrant fall colors and, of course, pumpkin-spiced everything. This is peak pumpkin season, with most of the American pumpkin crop harvested in October.

    With the pumpkin spice craze fully underway, I find myself thinking more about pumpkins. As an extension specialist working at Oklahoma State University’s botanic garden, I educate the people pouring in to buy pumpkins at our annual sale about the plant’s storied history and its prominence today.

    While people often picture pumpkins as bright orange, they actually come in a wide range of colors, including red, yellow, white, blue and even green. They vary in size and texture too: Some are smooth, others warty. They can even be miniature or giant.

    The word “pumpkin” comes from the Greek word “peopon,” meaning “large melon.” Botanically, pumpkins are fruits because they contain seeds, and they belong to the squash family, Cucurbitaceae. This family also includes cucumbers, zucchini and gourds. Pumpkins are grown for many purposes: food, seasonal decorating, carving for Halloween and even giant pumpkin contests.

    Some pumpkins can be over 1,000 pounds. Pumpkin-growing contests are common at county and state fairs.
    Joseph Prezioso/AFP via Getty Images

    All 50 states produce some pumpkins, with Illinois harvesting the most. In 2023, Illinois grew 15,400 acres of pumpkins. The next largest amount was grown in Indiana, with about 6,500 acres.

    Pumpkin yields vary each year, depending on the varieties grown and the growing conditions in each area. The top six pumpkin-producing states are California, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Washington.

    Early pumpkin history

    Pumpkins originated in Central and South America, ending up in North America as Native Americans migrated north and carried the seeds with them. The oldest pumpkin seeds discovered were found in Mexico and date back about 9,000 years.

    Pumpkins were grown as a crop even before corn or beans, the other two sisters in a traditional Native American “three sisters” garden. The three sister crops – corn, beans and squash – are planted together, and each has a role in helping the others grow.

    Native Americans planted corn in the spring, and once the plants were a few inches tall, they planted beans. The beans vine around the corn as it grows, giving them a natural trellis. Beans also have the ability to take nitrogen from the atmosphere, and with the help of bacteria they convert it into forms that plants can use, such as ammonia, for fertilizer.

    After the beans started growing, it was time to plant squash, such as pumpkin. Squash leaves covered the ground, shading the soil and helping keep it moist. The giant leaves also helped reduce the number of weeds that would compete with the corn, bean and squash growth.

    Every part of the pumpkin plant is edible, even the flowers. Some Native American groups would dry pumpkins’ tough outer shells, cut them into strips and weave them into mats.

    Pumpkins were introduced to Europe from North America through the Columbian Exchange. Europeans found that the pumpkins grown in the New World were easier to grow and sweeter than the ones in 1600s England or France, likely due to the weather and soil conditions in the Americas.

    A black and white illustration of a group of people loading pumpkins in a cart.
    People have been harvesting pumpkin for centuries. This historical illustration from around 1893 shows the pumpkin harvest in Hungary.
    bildagentur-online/uig via Getty Images

    Baking American pumpkins

    Native Americans introduced early settlers to pumpkins, and the colonists eagerly incorporated them into their diet, even making pies with them.

    Early settlers’ pumpkin pies were hollowed-out pumpkins filled with milk, honey and spices, cooked over an open fire or in hot ashes. Others followed English traditions, combining pumpkin and apple with sugar and spices between two crusts.

    The custard-style pumpkin pie we know today first appeared in 1796 as part of the first cookbook written and published in the United States, “American Cookery,” by Amelia Simmons. There were actually two pumpkin pie recipes: one used mace, nutmeg and ginger, the other just allspice and ginger.

    The pumpkin spice craze

    Pumpkin spice as one mixed ingredient was sold beginning in the early 1930s for convenience. The spice mix typically includes a blend of cinnamon, nutmeg, ginger, allspice and cloves.

    Pumpkins and pumpkin spice are now synonymous with fall in America. Pumpkin spice flavoring is used in candles, marshmallows, coffees, lotions, yogurts, pretzels, cookies, milk and many other products.

    A white mug with a Starbucks logo, filled with foamy coffee and powdered cinnamon on top.
    Starbucks’ pumpkin spice latte kicked off the craze thath put this seasonal flavor in high demand.
    Beata Zawrzel/NurPhoto via Getty Images

    While pumpkin spice is available in one form or another all year long, sales of pumpkin-spiced products increase exponentially in the fall. The pumpkin spice craze is so popular that the start of the pumpkin spice season is a couple of months before the pumpkins themselves are even ready to harvest in October.

    Pumpkin excursions

    Americans continue to wholeheartedly embrace pumpkins today. Pumpkins in production are typically hand-harvested as soon as they mature, when the skins are hard enough to not be dented when you press it with your thumb.

    Children often take field trips to pumpkin patches to pick their own. With the growing popularity of agritourism, many farmers are letting the customers go into the field and pick their own, getting more dollars per pumpkin than farmers could get by selling through the markets. Customer harvesting also reduces labor costs, produces immediate profits and builds community relationships.

    In addition, farmers often combine the you-pick experience with other sources of income: corn mazes, hay rides, petting zoos and more. The customers get fresher fruit, enjoy a fun and educational activity and support the local economy.

    This year you could get pumpkin spice flavors across the United States by late August, and the industry started promoting pumpkin spice season in July. Because fall has the right conditions for pumpkin picking, the season will keep its hold on pumpkin spice flavor, and consumers will continue to eagerly await its return each year.

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  • Goldman Sachs says risk of equity drawdown is rising as stocks hit record

    Goldman Sachs says risk of equity drawdown is rising as stocks hit record

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