Category: 3. Business

Bond Rally of 2025 Faces New Data Vacuum as Waiting Game Begins

A pedestrians passes the US Treasury building in Washington, DC.

(Bloomberg) — The rally that powered the US bond market toward its best year since 2020 has now left investors in suspense to see whether Treasuries can hold their impressive gains.

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US 10-year yields declined last week, sending the benchmark back toward 4% as spasms in stocks and crypto sparked demand for bonds. Fresh commentary from John Williams, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, added to the bid, reviving expectations for an interest-rate cut next month.

Heading into the Thanksgiving holiday-shortened week, the benchmark Bloomberg Treasuries index is on track for a small gain in November after rising in eight of the prior 10 months. And yet, while the tone is still generally upbeat, the market is mired below October’s price highs and yields are range-bound.

Absent a fresh bout of risk-off buying, and with no major economic data to speak of until after the Fed’s December meeting, that’s likely how things will stay for the foreseeable future, market watchers say.

“For a meaningful rally, the market is going to need some hard data,” said Kathy Jones, chief fixed-income strategist at Charles Schwab.

The $30 trillion US bond market has been confined to a trading band in recent weeks as a lack of clear signals on jobs and inflation — complicated in part by distortions from the recent government shutdown — divided Fed policymakers and made a third consecutive rate cut less of a sure thing.

“Certainly there’s no catalyst for the 10-year to go below 4% again,” said Kevin Flanagan, head of fixed income strategy at WisdomTree. Across the yield curve, Treasuries are “stuck in the mud,” he added.

The lack of conviction is showing up in a measure of bond market volatility. Market swings remain near historical lows after picking up from last month’s four-year low.

Official US employment data for September was finally released on Thursday, but it revealed a mixed picture that did little to settle the debate about the central bank’s likely path. On Friday, though, odds for a December cut climbed back near 65% after New York Fed President Williams said he sees room to lower interest rates in the near term as the labor market softens.

“A cut is more likely than not” in December, said Amar Reganti, fixed-income strategist at Hartford Funds. That said, he added, “inflation is above target and yes the labor market is weaker but that’s also a lagging indicator, so we don’t know how far it goes. You can make plausible arguments either way.”

Making matters worse, the government scrapped reports on October jobs and consumer prices, owing to the shutdown. November figures won’t be released until after policymakers meet in mid-December.

Several Fed officials urged caution about additional cuts before Williams spoke. Fed Governor Michael Barr said the US central bank needs to proceed with caution in considering additional interest-rate cuts. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee signaled that he’s still apprehensive about delivering another rate cut next month.

To be sure, zooming out, investors remain optimistic that the Fed will eventually lower rates over the next year to about 3% from just under 4% today, which would favor bonds. Net-long positions are holding near their highest level since April, according to the latest JPMorgan Chase survey, which came out before the release of the September employment report.

The lack of near-term data clarity, bond bulls say, merely delays, rather than derails, the Fed’s easing cycle as the labor market continues to cool. Traders are fully pricing in a quarter-point cut at the January meeting and 0.9 percentage points of easing over the next 12 months.

“If the Fed does not cut in December, we think it is likely they counterbalance that decision with a somewhat dovish message that leaves open the potential to reduce rates in January,” Deutsche Bank’s economists, including Matthew Luzzetti, wrote in a note. “In this way, December and January could be viewed somewhat interchangeably for the Committee at this point.”

What Bloomberg Strategists say …

“Yields have room to fall even without a rate cut in December, especially as Fed swaps reflect a certainty of a rate cut in January.”

— Alyce Andres, strategist, Markets Live

Read the full analysis here

A further selloff in equities could be a tailwind for bonds, prompting a flight to safety, according to Kelsey Berro, executive director for fixed income at JPMorgan Asset Management. The S&P 500 has fallen about 5% from its October peak amid concerns about a hawkish Fed and lofty valuations.

Otherwise, with no major catalyst on the immediate horizon, there’s scant incentive to go bold.

George Goncalves, head of US macro strategy at MUFG Securities Americas Inc said he expects a Fed cut next month and a small rally in Treasuries by year-end, with more gains for US bonds expected next year as the central bank continues its reduction cycle. But for now, the proximity of year-end makes it hard to have “enough conviction to put on trades that matter.”

What to Watch:

–With assistance from Carter Johnson and Edward Bolingbroke.

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November 23, 2025
Fei-Fei Li, the ‘Godmother of AI,’ Got Her Start As a Dry Cleaner

Every influential scientist has an origin story — and the “Godmother of AI” is no different.

Fei-Fei Li, a Stanford professor best known for her work on ImageNet, is now the founder of World Labs, a one-year-old AI startup that’s already valued at over $1 billion.

Her start, however, was far more humble.

Li immigrated to the United States from China at the age of 15 and helped her parents run a dry-cleaning business in Parsippany, New Jersey, to make ends meet.

“We were not financially very well off at all. My parents were doing cashier jobs and I was doing Chinese restaurant jobs,” she told Bloomberg in a Q&A. “My family and I decided to run a little dry cleaner shop to make some money to survive.”

Li said she likes to joke that she was the “CEO.” She ran the shop for seven years, from when she was 18 until the middle of her graduate studies.

According to her LinkedIn profile, Li attended Princeton University for college, keeping her close to her parents’ shop. Later, while pursuing her Ph.D. at Caltech in California, she continued to run the business remotely.

“I was the one who spoke English. So I took all the customer phone calls, I dealt with the billing, the inspections, all the business,” she said.

The experience, she said, taught her the value of resilience — a principle that continues to guide her career.

“As a scientist, you have to be resilient because science is a non-linear journey. Nobody has all the solutions. You have to go through such a challenge to find an answer. And as an immigrant, you learn to be resilient,” she said.

At World Labs, Li has big ambitions. She is working on building world models. These are AI models that leverage spatial intelligence, which Li says is “the ability for AI to understand, perceive, reason and interact [with the world]. It comes from a continuation of visual intelligence.”

A growing number of AI experts believe that world models are what will propel the AI revolution into its next phase. Some believe large-language models, which are trained on, as the name suggests, lanaguage, and which the leading products are now based, are limited.

Li said ImageNet, a comprehensive training dataset of visual information, was a precursor to world models.

At the core of Li’s research is the idea that visual information, a passive way of understanding the world, is a crucial foundation for real-world action, which remains one of the ultimate goals of some top AI builders, like Meta Chief AI Scientist Yann LeCun, who recently announced he would step down to launch his own world model startup.

The through-line between Li’s research and her immigrant story is the same.

“I was always a curious kid, and then my curiosity had an outlet, which was science — and that really grounded me,” she told Bloomberg. “I wasn’t curious about nightclubs or other things. I was an avid lover of science.”

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November 23, 2025
Jim Cramer Says Home Depot Stock is Going to Struggle if Fed Doesn’t Cut Rates Next Month

The Home Depot, Inc. (NYSE:HD) is one of the stocks Jim Cramer recently offered insights on. Cramer said that the company’s performance is dependant on whether the Fed cuts rate during the next meeting or not, as he commented:

“On Tuesday, we kicked things off with Home Depot, and that was an inauspicious start. The despot posted a tiny sales beat, but both its earnings and the same-store sales came in softer than expected, and the stock plunged 6% in response. Ouch. Worse, Home Depot cut its full-year forecast for both comparable sales growth and earnings. There’s a tough set of numbers, no way around it.

A stock market chart. Photo by Arturo A on Pexels

The Home Depot, Inc. (NYSE:HD) is a home improvement retailer that sells tools, building materials, and decor. It also provides installation and equipment rental services.

While we acknowledge the potential of HD as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you’re looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

READ NEXT: 30 Stocks That Should Double in 3 Years and 11 Hidden AI Stocks to Buy Right Now.

Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.

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November 23, 2025
Efficacy and safety of intrathecal human umbilical cord-derived mesenchymal stromal cell therapy for bone cancer pain: a preclinical study | Stem Cell Research & Therapy
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China’s EV strategy: winning hearts (and markets) in the Global South – Medium

China’s EV strategy: winning hearts (and markets) in the Global South Medium
Latin America EV Sales Report: 6% Market Share Reached in Q3 Thanks to 55% Growth YoY CleanTechnica
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Why Analysts See SAP’s Narrative Shifting Amid New Risks and Growth Drivers

SAP’s price target has seen a minor downward adjustment, with the fair value decreasing slightly from €288.67 to €287.58 and the discount rate lowered from 6.36% to 6.32%. This subtle change reflects updates in analyst expectations, which have been shaped by evolving revenue forecasts and adjustments to underlying assumptions. Readers interested in how these shifting outlooks could impact SAP’s future performance should stay tuned for insights on tracking the ongoing narrative and its implications.

Analyst Price Targets don’t always capture the full story. Head over to our Company Report to find new ways to value SAP.

Analyst sentiment on SAP has been dynamic in recent months, reflecting both confidence in the company’s long-term potential and ongoing scrutiny of its near-term challenges. Below is a synthesis of the key takeaways from recent research notes.

🐂 Bullish Takeaways

JPMorgan’s Toby Ogg raised his price target to EUR 310 from EUR 290, reaffirming an Overweight rating and highlighting continued confidence in SAP’s growth outlook.
Barclays increased its price target to $348 from $322, maintaining an Overweight rating. While acknowledging some softness in cloud guidance and software declines, Barclays noted more positive sentiment around the macro environment and a robust Q4 pipeline. This suggests improving prospects for revenue acceleration next year.
Oddo BHF upgraded SAP to Outperform from Neutral and slightly bumped its price target to EUR 284. Oddo BHF described the recent share pullback as a buying opportunity and credited SAP’s earnings resilience even in a weaker macroeconomic backdrop.
Jefferies reiterated its Buy rating and a EUR 290 price target, highlighting SAP’s “multiple levers of growth and sensible strategic choices to sustain durable growth.” Jefferies expects the stock to rebound following recent weakness, pointing to management’s transparent approach and growth execution.

🐻 Bearish Takeaways

BMO Capital took a more cautious view, lowering its price target to $320 from $330 while keeping an Outperform rating. While recognizing solid Q3 results, BMO noted some disappointment around the Q4 guidance and flagged uncertainties about near-term growth momentum.
Some analysts expressed concerns around valuation, with suggestions that much of the upside may already be reflected in SAP’s current share price. Ongoing risks tied to macroeconomic conditions and the pace of cloud revenue conversion were also noted.

Together, these perspectives highlight that while many on Wall Street remain positively disposed towards SAP’s strategic direction and execution capabilities, certain reservations persist, particularly regarding near-term revenue dynamics and valuation levels. Investors should continue to monitor how well SAP balances its growth ambitions with transparency and cost discipline to deliver on the expectations set by recent analyst commentary.

Do your thoughts align with the Bull or Bear Analysts? Perhaps you think there’s more to the story. Head to the Simply Wall St Community to discover more perspectives or begin writing your own Narrative!

XTRA:SAP Community Fair Values as at Nov 2025

SAP faces heightened merger and acquisition activity as multiple BlackLine shareholders call on their company to consider a sale, following SAP’s previously rebuffed takeover approach. This increases speculation about further dealmaking in the sector.
To settle an ongoing European Union antitrust probe and avoid a substantial fine, SAP is preparing to offer concessions. The European Commission has begun seeking market feedback on SAP’s proposed measures.
SAP has been named a leading customer in a planned EUR 1 billion German data center initiative led by Nvidia and Deutsche Telekom. The project aims to support Europe’s growing artificial intelligence infrastructure.
The U.S. Supreme Court has declined to review SAP’s appeal in an antitrust case filed by Teradata, meaning litigation against SAP will proceed in the lower courts.

Fair Value: Decreased marginally from €288.67 to €287.58, reflecting minor updates to underlying forecasts.
Discount Rate: Lowered slightly from 6.36% to 6.32%. This suggests a modest reduction in perceived risk.
Revenue Growth: Shown a negligible decline, with projected annual growth remaining at 12.68%.
Net Profit Margin: Edged down from 21.38% to 21.37% in the latest projections.
Future P/E: Declined modestly from 36.03x to 35.82x. This indicates slightly lower forward earnings expectations.

Narratives are a smarter way to invest. They bring a company’s story to life by linking numbers, forecasts, and fair value together. On Simply Wall St’s Community page, millions of investors use Narratives to share their perspectives on a company’s future, connecting facts and forecasts in a dynamic, easily accessible format. Narratives help you decide when to buy or sell by comparing fair value to the current price, and they automatically update whenever new information emerges.

Read the original SAP Narrative to keep your investment outlook sharp. Here are three reasons why you should stay tuned:

Track SAP’s aggressive shift to cloud and AI, which is driving higher recurring revenue and boosting profit margins.
Understand how strategic partnerships, digitalization, and productivity gains are fueling SAP’s long-term growth and market expansion.
Monitor potential risks, such as global regulatory pressures and increased competition, that could impact SAP’s future earnings and fair value.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include SAP.DE.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

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How the Story Around Federated Hermes Is Evolving Amid Analyst Shifts and New Growth Drivers

Federated Hermes’ fair value estimate has experienced a modest uptick, with the price target rising slightly from $52.29 to $52.43 following the latest round of analyst updates. This change comes as market experts weigh the company’s robust quarterly earnings and ongoing industry momentum, while also considering cautious views about the stock’s current valuation. Stay tuned to see how investors can track and respond to future shifts in sentiment and price targets as this narrative continues to evolve.

Stay updated as the Fair Value for Federated Hermes shifts by adding it to your watchlist or portfolio. Alternatively, explore our Community to discover new perspectives on Federated Hermes.

Recent analyst commentary on Federated Hermes reflects a mixture of optimism and ongoing caution. Several notable firms have updated their outlook following the company’s latest earnings and industry developments, weighing strong performance against considerations of current valuation.

🐂 Bullish Takeaways:

Evercore ISI raised its price target for Federated Hermes to $55 from $48 and maintained an Outperform rating. The firm highlighted sustained industry organic growth for a fourth consecutive month, as well as a positive close to the summer for both stocks and bonds. This signals sector momentum and improved asset flows.
JPMorgan increased its price target to $56 from $55 while keeping a Neutral rating. The firm’s analysts cited the company’s Q3 earnings beat as a key driver for the upward revision and noted that execution on earnings continues to impress.
Analysts overall pointed to robust quarterly execution and industry-wide positive trends as drivers behind recent price target increases.

🐻 Bearish Takeaways:

TD Cowen lifted its price target to $53 from $51 and maintained a Hold rating. The firm emphasized that, despite recent model updates, there is not enough residual value at current trading levels to prompt a more aggressive stance. TD Cowen points to valuation as a near-term risk, suggesting that much of the upside appears to be priced in.
Cautious sentiment persists among some analysts who, while recognizing operational momentum, remain hesitant due to concerns over the stock’s valuation and limited further upside.

NYSE:FHI Community Fair Values as at Nov 2025

Federated Hermes has launched the Enhanced Income ETF (CBOE: PAYR), aiming to provide steady monthly income to investors by blending high-dividend stock investments with options strategies. This new ETF is designed specifically for those seeking regular cash flow from their portfolios.
The Enhanced Income ETF is managed collaboratively by the Multi-Asset Investment Team and the Strategic Value Dividend Team. Their combined expertise focuses on disciplined risk management and generating reliable income for investors.
As of September 30, 2025, Federated Hermes oversees more than $1.2 billion in ETF assets, reflecting a growing suite of actively managed ETFs tailored to diverse investment goals.
The company has also introduced the MDT Market Neutral ETF, which focuses on long-term capital appreciation with strategies designed to limit exposure to overall market risk. This fund is managed by the Federated Hermes MDT Advisers team, which has an established history in market neutral investing.

Fair Value Estimate has risen slightly from $52.29 to $52.43, indicating a modest upward revision.
Discount Rate has decreased from 8.49% to 8.35%, reflecting a slightly lower perceived risk or cost of capital.
Revenue Growth Projection remains stable, with an incremental increase from 3.94% to 3.94%.
Net Profit Margin is virtually unchanged, edging down marginally from 20.80% to 20.80%.
Future Price/Earnings (P/E) Ratio forecast has fallen slightly from 10.33x to 10.32x.

A Narrative is more than just numbers; it is your chance to tell the story behind a company’s future. Narratives connect a company’s business fundamentals and financial forecasts to a fair value, letting you see not just what a company is worth, but the reasons why. On Simply Wall St’s Community, millions use Narratives to quickly spot if a stock is undervalued or overvalued, decide when to buy or sell, and stay up to date as new news or earnings revise the story in real time.

Explore the original Federated Hermes Narrative and keep up with:

How new product launches, like digital assets and income ETFs, are expected to broaden revenue streams and attract new clients for Federated Hermes.
Key analyst assumptions for future revenue and earnings growth and why most see the stock as fairly valued.
Risks around rising competition, fee pressures, and the potential impact of regulation on future margins and growth.

Companies discussed in this article include FHI.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

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Why The Narrative Around CIBC Is Shifting Following Fresh Analyst Updates and Market Signals

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce has seen its Fair Value Estimate climb slightly, rising from CA$110.01 to CA$112.88 per share as analyst sentiment shifts more positively. This change reflects a mix of renewed optimism, with robust quarterly results and expanding net interest margins driving higher price targets. At the same time, some caution persists among analysts. Stay tuned to discover how you can follow these evolving perspectives and stay ahead of important updates shaping the bank’s future outlook.

Stay updated as the Fair Value for Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce shifts by adding it to your watchlist or portfolio. Alternatively, explore our Community to discover new perspectives on Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce.

Recent analyst commentary on Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC) continues to reflect a dynamic mix of optimism and ongoing caution. Multiple firms have updated their outlooks, adjusting price targets in response to the bank’s latest quarterly performance and evolving sector conditions.

🐂 Bullish Takeaways

Scotiabank and RBC Capital reiterated Outperform ratings, with Scotiabank’s Mike Rizvanovic raising CIBC’s price target to C$121 from C$116. RBC Capital increased its target to C$113 from C$112, highlighting confidence in CIBC’s fundamentals and growth trajectory.
BMO Capital and TD Cowen also issued price target hikes to C$112 and C$117 respectively, maintaining Outperform and Buy ratings. These actions indicate momentum in core performance and a favorable view of the latest quarter.
BofA raised its price target to C$114 from C$110, citing Q3 core EPS that exceeded both firm and consensus expectations, driven by robust pre-tax pre-provision income. The firm anticipates net interest margin expansion in both U.S. and Canadian segments to continue supporting earnings power.
Strong growth in Canadian Personal and Business banking, ongoing net interest margin expansion, and resilient capital markets activity were consistently recognized as key drivers for upgraded valuations.
Analysts highlighted CIBC’s ability to execute on cost control and deliver above-consensus earnings. Canaccord noted net interest margin improvement and momentum as especially positive for near-term performance.

🐻 Bearish Takeaways

Canaccord maintained a Hold rating despite multiple price target increases, most recently raising its target to C$117 from C$111. This reflects a more cautious stance linked to valuation considerations and upside that may already be reflected in the share price.
Barclays lifted its price target to C$106 from C$96 but kept an Underweight rating. This signals ongoing reservations regarding the bank’s valuation and the potential for near-term risks, even as results exceeded consensus expectations.
Some analysts continue to flag concerns around the sustainability of earnings growth and pressures from broader economic uncertainty. This has led to a divergence in overall sentiment despite solid recent quarters.

Taken together, while the prevailing sentiment remains constructive given CIBC’s execution and growth momentum, select analysts advise caution, particularly around valuation and future earnings trajectory. These differing perspectives highlight the complexities shaping CIBC’s current fair value and the factors investors are watching closely.

TSX:CM Community Fair Values as at Nov 2025

CIBC Asset Management Inc. has launched the CIBC Target Retirement Date Portfolios, a new suite of professionally managed investment solutions tailored to varying retirement horizons for Canadians.
CIBC introduced the Real-Time Experience, an AI-enabled client engagement platform designed to deliver personalized financial solutions across digital and traditional channels.
A $26 million class action settlement was reached with CIBC and CIBC Trust Corporation regarding mutual fund trades executed through discount brokers. The agreement is now pending court approval.
CIBC recently completed the repurchase of 20 million shares, representing over 2% of its outstanding share capital. This was part of its ongoing share buyback initiative.

The Fair Value Estimate has risen slightly, increasing from CA$110.01 to CA$112.88 per share.
The Discount Rate has edged up from 7.12% to 7.25%.
The Revenue Growth Forecast has seen a modest increase from 4.57% to 4.58%.
The Net Profit Margin estimate has decreased marginally, moving from 29.62% to 29.48%.
The Future P/E Ratio projection has risen from 13.67x to 14.14x.

A Narrative is a powerful way to understand and invest in companies. It combines a company’s story, your perspective on its future, directly with key financial forecasts and then links all of that to a fair value. Narratives on Simply Wall St make it easy for anyone to align important news, forecasts, and price signals. This helps millions of investors track the story as it evolves and decide when to buy or sell. They are always up-to-date, thanks to real-time community insights and company developments.

Head over to the Simply Wall St Community and follow the Narrative on Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce to stay informed about:

How digital innovation, advisory growth, and U.S. expansion are driving efficiency, revenue diversification, and stronger shareholder returns
The potential risks, including heavy reliance on Canadian mortgages, rising delinquencies, regulatory cost pressures, and increased competition from digital-first players
How evolving forecasts, such as revenue, margins, and fair value, compare to the current price and what this means for buy or sell decisions

Companies discussed in this article include CM.TO.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

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Kohl’s to name Michael Bender as permanent CEO, Bloomberg News reports

Nov 23 (Reuters) – Kohl’s Corp (KSS.N), opens new tab is expected to appoint Michael Bender as its permanent chief executive as early as Monday, Bloomberg News reported on Sunday, citing a person familiar with the matter.

The board interviewed several candidates before opting to appoint Bender, according to the report.

Reuters could not immediately verify the report. Kohl’s did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment. Michael Bender could not be immediately reached for a comment on the role change.

In May, the struggling department-store retailer fired former CEO Ashley Buchanan after an investigation uncovered his undisclosed personal relationship with a vendor whose deals he had aggressively pursued, barely 100 days into the role.

Buchanan’s firing in May was the third CEO change in three years for Kohl’s, hit by falling sales from online and big-box rivals, plus its own missteps.

Kohl’s named Bender as its interim CEO effective immediately following the ouster of Buchanan, and said that the search for a permanent chief executive would begin soon.

Bender has served on Kohl’s board as a director since July 2019 and brings more than 30 years of senior leadership experience at major retailers, including Walmart (WMT.N), opens new tab, Victoria’s Secret (VSCO.N), opens new tab and Eyemart Express.

Reporting by Bipasha Dey in Bengaluru

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab

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Which Is More Likely to Be a Millionaire Maker?

Over the past decade, Bitcoin has been the top-performing asset in the world.
Bitcoin has been growing exponentially over time and could hit a price of $1 million by 2030.
While Ethereum has largely followed the path of Bitcoin over the past decade, it hasn’t been able to deliver quite the same level of performance.
10 stocks we like better than Bitcoin ›

Over the past decade, investing in hypergrowth cryptocurrencies has become a proven way to attain millionaire status. According to the latest Crypto Wealth Report from Henley & Partners, there are an estimated 241,700 crypto millionaires in the world right now.

Of these, 145,100 are Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) millionaires. But is Bitcoin still the most likely way to grow your wealth over time? Or could Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) potentially offer a faster path to millionaire status? Let’s take a closer look.

The key to Bitcoin’s enormous success has been its ability to compound its performance, year after year, with just a few missteps along the way. Since 2010, Bitcoin has only had three losing years: 2014, 2018, and 2022. In every other year, it has ripped higher at a head-spinning rate.

More than any other cryptocurrency, Bitcoin demonstrates the power of compounding returns. In the period from 2017 to 2025, Bitcoin grew at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 50%. That’s all the more impressive given that it collapsed in value in both 2018 and 2022. But the other years were so phenomenal that they more than made up for the bad years.

In fact, it’s getting to the point where investors think Bitcoin can double in value every year. At the start of this year, for example, the conventional wisdom was that Bitcoin would double in value, from $100,000 to $200,000. That hasn’t been the case, of course, but Bitcoin did hit a new all-time high of $126,000 in October.

Ethereum has been no slouch, either. During that same time period, Ethereum grew at a CAGR of 33%. Ethereum, too, tends to follow a four-year cycle, in which three good years are followed by one absolutely miserable year. After growing by 472% in 2020 and 395% in 2021, for example, Ethereum promptly gave it all back. In 2022, Ethereum lost 68% of its value.

Another way to evaluate the millionaire-maker potential of any cryptocurrency is by taking into account future growth projections. In most cases, these are built by evaluating the potential use cases of a cryptocurrency, and then estimating how much market share it might gain within a certain niche, vertical, or industry.

Image source: Getty Images.

Here, too, Bitcoin appears to have the edge over Ethereum. The conventional wisdom is that Bitcoin can hit a price target of $1 million within the next five years, based on an exploding set of new use cases. That point of view has been supported by Cathie Wood of Ark Invest, Brian Armstrong of Coinbase Global, and Jack Dorsey of Block.

Growing tenfold in price within a short period of time might seem impossible. But, time and time again, Bitcoin has grown at an exponential rate. It soared from $1 to $10, then $10 to $100, then $100 to $1,000, then $1,000 to $10,000, and then $10,000 to $100,000. All of that took place in the span of less than 15 years. So why can’t Bitcoin once again grow from $100,000 to $1 million?

Ethereum, too, has been the subject of endless speculation about how much higher it might go. At one time, investors thought Ethereum might even surpass Bitcoin in market cap, due to how fast it was growing.

Right now, one of the most aggressive future price targets for Ethereum is $20,000. Given Ethereum’s current price of $3,150, that implies a nearly sixfold increase in price. That’s highly impressive, of course, but it falls short of Bitcoin’s potential tenfold price increase.

Based on the above, Bitcoin would appear to be the obvious winner. You really can’t argue with a cryptocurrency that has already minted 145,100 millionaires. Yes, Bitcoin can experience tremendous volatility. But in eight of the past 10 years, it has been the top-performing asset in the world.

Of course, I fully expect the growth rates of both Bitcoin and Ethereum to slow over time. If Bitcoin is indeed “digital gold,” as many crypto investors claim, shouldn’t its performance more closely track the long-term performance of gold? That might give an opening to Ethereum, which more closely resembles a tech stock than a commodity. And, over time, wouldn’t you expect tech stocks to outperform gold?

That being said, I can’t think of a better long-term investment than Bitcoin. As long as you’re prepared to deal with the inherent volatility of crypto, a patient approach should ultimately pay off. There’s no guarantee you’ll become a millionaire by investing in Bitcoin, but there are 145,100 people around the world who will tell you that your odds are going to increase markedly if you do.

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Dominic Basulto has positions in Bitcoin and Ethereum. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin, Block, and Ethereum. The Motley Fool recommends Coinbase Global. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Bitcoin vs. Ethereum: Which Is More Likely to Be a Millionaire Maker? was originally published by The Motley Fool