Category: 3. Business

Good morning. The benchmark stock indices in India have all been negative or flat most of this week, as scepticism over AI grips global markets. It’s hard to predict what the next positive trigger will be, but one must have hope, I suppose. 

Meanwhile, polls have started in Bihar, and nothing gets Indians excited more than a good election. We will know the results next Friday. Will Nitish Kumar manage to hang on to his chair for five more years? Scroll down to see how this newsletter’s readers voted. He is not going to give up without a fight, that’s for sure.

---

KKR bets on India

Investment major KKR is looking at significant investments in India as part of its global expansion strategy. The firm’s co-chief executive, Scott Nuttall, who was visiting India this week, said the company was boosting investments in healthcare, financial services, consumer and technology businesses.  

Significantly, Nuttall also said the firm was planning to use its insurance arm to fund transactions in India. In June, KKR financed $600mn in Bengaluru-based healthcare and education provider Manipal Group through its insurance subsidiary Global Atlantic. This was the company’s first Indian investment through Global Atlantic, which it fully acquired in 2023. The company is looking to expand the India business to resemble its global model — moving beyond buyouts and core investments into insurance capital solutions and other financial markets. 

KKR has $9bn invested in various Indian entities, making it one of the largest private investors in the economy. The group’s optimism about India is not just based on projections of the country’s economic growth but also on account of the success of its investments. In 2022, it sold its holdings in Max Healthcare for $2bn, the largest market monetisation then by a PE investor in India. Earlier this year, it exited its holdings in JB Pharma for $1.4bn, netting fivefold returns. According to Nuttall, India and Japan are the best performing markets for the investment company in Asia, although he did not share specific numbers.

India’s share in private investments by large fund houses has been growing as China’s prospects have dipped. With slowing growth, geopolitical tensions and regulatory challenges, China is now far less attractive to foreign investors compared with a decade ago. Data from the Global Private Capital Association suggests that this year India has cornered a 41 per cent share of all private equity inflows into emerging and growth markets, beating China’s 34 per cent.

Much of this is thanks to the fact that New Delhi has rationalised the regulatory framework in many sectors. The central bank and the capital markets regulator have also loosened norms in order to welcome foreign investment. This is bearing fruit: net foreign direct investments were up more than 120 per cent in the April to August period this year compared with the same period last year. These numbers are especially impressive when contrasted with the fact that foreign portfolio investments are set for record outflows this year. A surge in patient money is some comfort in these difficult times. 

Why do you think India is more attractive to FDI than FPI now? Hit reply or email me at indiabrief@ft.com

Recommended stories

1. Nvidia’s Jensen Huang says China “will win” the AI race with the US.

2. Putin signals Russia may start nuclear weapons tests in response to Trump.

3. Our latest visual investigation: how Saudi Arabia’s Neom dream unravelled.

4. AI pioneers claim human-level general intelligence is already here.

5. France will ban Shein.

6. What makes a bad book?

Mending fences

India is sending aid to Afghanistan after a 6.3 magnitude earthquake hit the country’s north on Monday. Foreign minister S Jaishankar was one of the first to call his counterpart in the Taliban administration to offer his condolences and assure them of New Delhi’s support. 

These overtures come after Taliban foreign minister Amir Khan Mutaqi’s groundbreaking (and controversial) trip to New Delhi last month. This was the first visit to New Delhi by a senior Taliban official since the group’s takeover of Kabul in 2021. A few days later, India announced its intention to reopen its embassy in Kabul, which had been shut for four years. 

In rushing to help its neighbour this week, India is trying to beat China to the punch as Afghanistan’s strategic significance in the region rises. For one, there is now a vacuum to fill after the Joe Biden-led US administration abruptly ended its engagement with the country, pulling troops and administrative resources in 2021. Secondly, India is desperately seeking allies in the region, especially after the military hostilities with Pakistan earlier this year. Afghanistan is an easy win in this regard, since Kabul’s relations with Islamabad too have significantly soured. The past few weeks have seen several clashes between the two countries on the border.

For more than a decade now China has been the region’s prominent benefactor, making big investments in all the countries in India’s immediate vicinity. But with the Trump administration shaking up geopolitical alliances all over the world, India too is looking at rewiring some of its friendships and alliances. With the Taliban, for example, India has done a full 180-degree turn from its former stance that there is no such thing as a good Taliban.

Earlier this week, a senior Indian official suggested to me that India’s strategic initiatives in foreign policy significantly revolve around being an important actor in the global south and in its commitment to the neighbourhood-first policy. Even though no one in the administration will concede to it, this does sound like a retreat from India’s aspirations to play in the big playground with western powers. Embracing the Taliban is only the first step in realigning equations in the region. There will be several others to follow.

Go figure

It’s been a year since Trump was elected to office for his second term. He has upended global trade, and despite his predilection to chicken out, the US’s de facto tariff rate is at its highest level in nearly a century.

Read, hear, watch

We did a fun thing yesterday, when Tee and I met a few of you — readers of this newsletter — for drinks at the Samuel Pepys pub near the FT’s headquarters in London. We had a fabulous time, hanging out and chatting with some wonderful people. Gossip and stories were shared, LinkedIn connections made and some warm new friendships initiated. I was especially pleased to see people brought together by India Business Briefing making plans to play tennis together! Thank you to everyone who came.

Buzzer round

What connects Johnnie Walker, Captain Morgan and Don Julio?

Send your answer to indiabrief@ft.com and check Tuesday’s newsletter to see if you were the first one to get it right.

Quick answer

On Tuesday we asked if sentiment against the incumbent will affect Nitish Kumar’s chances in Bihar? Here are the results. We will know for certain in a week.

---

Thank you for reading. India Business Briefing is edited by Tee Zhuo. Please send feedback, suggestions (and gossip) to indiabrief@ft.com.

A man has caught fire at Melbourne international airport after a lithium power bank in his pocket ignited, leaving him with burns to his leg and fingers.

The man, aged in his 50s, was in the Qantas business lounge on Thursday morning when the overheated power bank burst into flames, filling the exclusive area with smoke and prompting about 150 people to be evacuated.

Staff quickly helped the man into a shower before paramedics arrived to treat his injuries. He was taken to hospital in a stable condition and later released.

A witness said they saw “battery acid flying everywhere,” according to the Age newspaper. A Qantas spokesperson said the lounge was cleaned and re-opened two hours later.

Australian film producer Leanne Tonkes was in the lounge on Thursday morning when she heard the commotion. She posted an image of the burnt power bank moments after it had exploded.

“Hoping the man who caught fire holding it is ok,” she wrote on Instagram.

“Quick thinking from the man who jumped in to help and the staff who got him in the shower and everyone else out of the lounge.”

Qantas is currently reviewing its policy on passengers carrying any type of lithium batteries, including portable power banks, and is expected to provide an update shortly.

Many airlines now advise passengers travelling with power banks to keep them within reach – either in their seat pocket or in a bag under the seat in front of them – and not in the overhead luggage compartment.

In July, a fire broke out on a Virgin Australia flight from Sydney to Hobart, with a power bank in an overhead locker to blame.

The airline is looking to update its policy and customers are asked to keep portable power banks “in sight and within easy reach” during flights.

A portable power bank was also likely the cause of a fire that engulfed and destroyed a passenger plane in South Korea in January.

Several international airlines such as Emirates, Cathay Pacific, China Airlines, Korean Air and Singapore Airlines have banned the use of power banks and the charging of them during flights.

There are also limits on how many rechargeable batteries passengers can carry based on their capacity. For instance, some airlines only allow two power banks with a capacity between 100Wh and 160Wh.

(Bloomberg) — Asian equities fell after Wall Street shares declined, weighed down by concerns over stretched artificial intelligence valuations and signs of a cooling labor market.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped 0.6%, led by declines in Japan, putting the gauge on track for its first drop in three weeks. US equity benchmarks dropped for the second time in three sessions with AI-related stocks such as Nvidia Corp. tumbling, while a closely watched volatility gauge spiked.

US equity futures rose 0.1% in Asian trading Friday, reflecting a week in which stocks have swung between gains and losses. Tesla Inc. advanced 1.6% in extended trading after its shareholders approved a $1 trillion compensation package for Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk.

Amid increasing volatility, the MSCI All Country World Index is on track for its first weekly decline in four, as investors who drove the rally on expectations of Fed rate cuts and AI-fueled growth now question whether massive capital spending will pay off. Wall Street chief executives have also struck a more cautious tone over a narrowing group of stocks driving the market’s gains.

“The market seems to have continued angst about the valuations of AI stocks,” said Jonestrading’s Dave Lutz, adding that semiconductor stocks were “under decent pressure.”

The selloff this week — followed by dip buying — came as earnings season winds down and as investors become reliant on private data amid a dearth of economic figures due to the ongoing US government shutdown.

The latest private data release, from Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc., showed companies announced 153,074 job cuts last month, almost triple the number during the same month last year and driven by the technology and warehousing sectors.

It’s the most for any October since 2003, when the advent of mobile phones was similarly disruptive, said Andy Challenger, the company’s chief revenue officer.

That weighed on the bond market and money markets are now implying around a 70% chance of a Fed cut next month.

Markets were whipsawed by a number of comments from Federal Reserve officials on interest rates, with many focusing on inflation and downplaying the chance of a cut in December. Last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned that a rate cut in December isn’t a foregone conclusion.

Fed Cleveland President Beth Hammack said inflation is a bigger risk than job weakness. Her Chicago counterpart Austan Goolsbee told CNBC that a lack of inflation data during the shutdown makes him uneasy about rate cuts. Governor Michael Barr said officials still have work to do on inflation while ensuring the labor market is solid.

Fed St. Louis President Alberto Musalem said the central bank must keep downward pressure on inflation, cautioning that interest rates are approaching the level that would no longer provide that pressure.

That weighed on Treasuries, which edged lower in early Asian trading, amid the chorus of warnings from Fed officials. Treasury 10-year yields had their biggest drop in a month in the previous session after data showed the steepest October job cuts in more than two decades.

Elsewhere, a Bloomberg gauge of the dollar was little changed after sliding the most since mid-October. In commodities, oil edged higher Friday but was set for a second weekly drop, as supply increases around the world heighten concerns about the size of a forming glut. Gold edged up.

Back to stocks, the sudden focus on the financing needs of OpenAI — the maker of ChatGPT — and other companies in the industry came as investors were already on edge following remarks from Wall Street executives about frothy tech valuations.

Their warning fueled jitters in the market earlier in the week, leading to a 2.1% drop in the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index on Tuesday. After recouping some of that loss on Wednesday, the index slid another 1.9% on Thursday. It’s now down almost 4% from its last record on Oct. 29, though still up nearly 20% so far this year.

Corporate Highlights:

Novo Nordisk A/S has again increased its offer for Metsera Inc. as its takeover battle with Pfizer Inc. for the obesity startup escalates. Tesla Inc. shareholders approved a $1 trillion compensation package for Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk, the largest payout ever awarded to a corporate leader. Huawei Technologies Co. added a thin new handset to its lineup, offering Chinese consumers a direct competitor to Apple Inc.’s iPhone Air. Airbnb Inc. issued a better-than-expected outlook for the holiday quarter, citing strong demand as US travelers used its recently launched “reserve now, pay later” feature to book trips in advance. Qantas Airways Ltd. shares fell after the airline scaled back planned capacity growth after slower-than-expected corporate demand, in one of the first signs of softening appetite for travel in Australia since the pandemic. Macquarie Group Ltd. shares tumbled after profit missed expectations as tepid activity at its key commodities and global markets division overshadowed a rebound in investment banking. Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

S&P 500 futures were little changed as of 10:22 a.m. Tokyo time Nikkei 225 futures (OSE) fell 1.8% Japan’s Topix fell 0.8% Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.1% Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.5% The Shanghai Composite rose 1% Euro Stoxx 50 futures were little changed Currencies

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed The euro was little changed at $1.1541 The Japanese yen fell 0.1% to 153.22 per dollar The offshore yuan was little changed at 7.1218 per dollar The Australian dollar was little changed at $0.6479 Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin rose 0.4% to $101,461.61 Ether fell 0.5% to $3,309.25 Bonds

The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.09% Japan’s 10-year yield was little changed at 1.675% Australia’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 4.34% Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.4% to $59.69 a barrel Spot gold rose 0.6% to $3,999.71 an ounce This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

©2025 Bloomberg L.P.