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  • New laws to be considered after ‘harrowing stories’ from ex-Vodafone franchisees | Vodafone

    New laws to be considered after ‘harrowing stories’ from ex-Vodafone franchisees | Vodafone

    The government will consider new laws to correct the power imbalance in franchise agreements in response to the “harrowing stories” of small business people running Vodafone stores.

    The move follows allegations of suicide and attempted suicide among shopkeepers who had agreed to deals to run retail outlets for the £18bn telecoms company, which were revealed by the Guardian on Monday.

    During Thursday’s business questions in the Commons, Justin Madders, a former minister, said: “I’m sure the department will have been aware of the coverage this week of some of the harrowing stories of the treatment of Vodafone franchisees … [The department] will no doubt recognise the power imbalance in that relationship and will they consider looking at some measures to redress that imbalance perhaps by a statutory code of practice or a national arbitration system?”

    Chris Bryant, a minister of state at the Department for Business and Trade, said: “I am happy to sit down with him and discuss whether there are specific proposals that we could bring forward which would address that issue of imbalance.”

    Outside the chamber another former business minister, Labour’s Gareth Thomas, added: “This case continues to raise disturbing echoes of the Post Office scandal and raises the question as to whether the law around franchising needs to be toughened up to ensure small-business owners are better protected.”

    On Monday, the Guardian revealed allegations that Adrian Howe, a former Vodafone employee who had agreed to become a franchisee in 2018, had taken his own life after becoming convinced his deal with the multinational company would prove financially disastrous.

    Rachael Beddow-Davison and Dan Attwal also told the Guardian about how commission cuts by Vodafone in 2020 caused their franchising companies to run up huge debts, which they each said contributed to them attempting to kill themselves.

    A group of 62 former Vodafone franchisees brought a high court claim in 2024, alleging the telecoms company “unjustly enriched” itself by slashing sales commissions paid to the small business owners for running the stores in 2020.

    In September, Vodafone commenced offering financial settlements to a selection of former franchisees who are outside the group of claimants currently suing the business – as it launched its fourth investigation into the historical conduct within its franchising division.

    Vodafone says the ongoing legal claim is a “commercial dispute” but has previously apologised to claimants who blamed pressure from the telecoms group for triggering suicidal thoughts. A survey of franchisees during September 2020 resulted in 78 out of 119 respondents leaving overwhelmingly critical comments about the effects Vodafone’s actions had had on their mental health.

    In response to the Guardian’s investigation, a Vodafone UK spokesperson said: “While we are sorry if any partners have had a difficult experience, we reject any suggestion that our franchisees were put under undue pressure.

    “We continue to run a successful franchise operation, and many of our existing franchisees have expanded their business with us by taking on additional stores. We encourage everyone to raise issues, and we will always seek to resolve them, and we remain open to further discussions with claimants to resolve the commercial dispute.”

    The company said it “wholly rejects” any suggestion that it “knowingly or recklessly or negligently” put anybody involved with its franchise stores under unreasonable pressure.

    In the UK and Ireland, Samaritans can be contacted on freephone 116 123, or email jo@samaritans.org or jo@samaritans.ie. In the US, you can call or text the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline on 988, chat on 988lifeline.org, or text HOME to 741741 to connect with a crisis counselor. In Australia, the crisis support service Lifeline is 13 11 14. Other international helplines can be found at befrienders.org

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  • Dollar staggers to third weekly decline as investors ponder Fed outlook – Reuters

    1. Dollar staggers to third weekly decline as investors ponder Fed outlook  Reuters
    2. US dollar sags as Fed outlook undermines; Swiss franc gets SNB lift  Reuters
    3. EUR/USD, GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Forecasts – US Dollar Still Soft After FOMC  FXEmpire
    4. Dollar Extends Post-FOMC Losses  inkl
    5. Forex Today: US Dollar steady ahead of the Fed decision, US employment data  FXStreet

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  • Multi-criteria spatial assessment of urban open spaces for promoting physical activity and spatial justice: a case study of Tehran metropolitan

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  • Africa CDC and Zipline Partner to Advance Health System Responsiveness and Epidemic Preparedness Across Africa – Africa CDC

    Africa CDC and Zipline Partner to Advance Health System Responsiveness and Epidemic Preparedness Across Africa – Africa CDC

    Together, they will expand access, improve emergency preparedness, strengthen data systems, and enhance epidemic early warning and response capabilities that work even at the last mile

    Washington / Addis Ababa, 11 December 2025 — The Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) and Zipline International, Inc. have signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to improve health outcomes and expand economic opportunities across Africa through drone-enabled health logistics.

    The partnership marks a significant step towards realising Africa’s vision of resilient, technology-driven, and equitable health systems — ensuring that life-saving medical products, from vaccines to diagnostics and essential medicines, reach every community, no matter how remote.

    The collaboration aligns with the Africa CDC Strategic Plan (2023–2027) and Africa’s Health Security and Sovereignty (AHSS) agenda, which emphasise African-led solutions to strengthen institutions, expand local manufacturing, empower the health workforce, and leverage innovation for continental health security. It further supports Africa CDC’s One Health approach and Digital Transformation Strategy, aimed at connecting and modernising public health systems across the continent.    

    This partnership is guided by five core principles:

    • Member State Ownership and Leadership: All activities are undertaken under the leadership of AU Member States and with the coordination and guidance of Africa CDC.
    • Equity and Access: The collaboration prioritizes underserved, remote, and vulnerable populations.
    • Sustainability and Sovereignty: The partnership strengthens domestic systems, integrates with existing public health infrastructure, and promotes Africa’s health sovereignty including via capacity building of local industry partners.
    • Transparency and Accountability: Both parties maintain open communication, shared reporting, and compliance with ethical, legal, and data protection standards.
    • Innovation for Impact: Joint efforts focus on scalable, evidence-based innovations with measurable impact on epidemic control and service delivery.

    Through the MoU, Africa CDC and Zipline will collaborate to support countries on strategic initiatives including capacity building, workforce development, operational research, innovation, epidemic preparedness, emergency response, and technology transfer. The partnership will support the integration of drone-based logistics as decided by national governments, strengthen data-driven surveillance and early-warning systems, and promote coordinated action to ensure service continuity in hard-to-reach and disaster-prone areas.    

    “This partnership with Zipline is more than an innovation in logistics, it is a commitment to equity, access and resilience,” said Dr Jean Kaseya, Director-General of Africa CDC. “By leveraging advanced drone technology, we can connect communities that have long been beyond the reach of essential health services, empower our health workforce with real-time data and supplies, and build a continent that responds faster, works smarter, and saves more lives”.

    Under this agreement, Africa CDC will work with Member States, partners, and donors to mobilise political commitment, investment, and collaboration in digital and drone-enabled logistics. Zipline will leverage its operational expertise, warehousing capabilities, autonomous aircraft network, and data-driven supply chain management systems to support the integration of aerial delivery into public health systems across Africa.

    “Africa CDC and Zipline are working together to accelerate a continent-wide shift toward equitable, resilient, responsive health systems,” said Caitlin Burton, Chief Executive Officer of Zipline Africa. “By combining African leadership with Zipline’s technology and operational expertise, we’re strengthening supply chains, empowering health workers, improving early-warning systems, and ensuring every community has reliable access to care. This is innovation in service of health equity — and in service of Africa’s future.”

    Since launching its first operations in Rwanda in 2016, Zipline has expanded to operate the world’s largest autonomous      delivery network, partnering with governments and health institutions to transform how essential goods are distributed. Its technology now powers last-mile health delivery across several African countries, contributing to stronger supply chains, improved health outcomes, faster outbreak      detection and response, and economic stimulation.          

    The MoU also commits both organisations to fostering knowledge exchange, advocacy, and technical dialogue, promoting innovation and collaboration through policy fora, joint research, and communication initiatives that highlight Africa’s leadership in health technology and systems resilience.

    This partnership supports the African Union’s Agenda 2063 and advances the continent’s collective vision of a prosperous, healthy, and self-reliant Africa, driven by innovation, partnership, and the power of technology.

    ###

    About the Africa CDC

    The Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) is a public health agency of the African Union. It is autonomous and supports member states in strengthening health systems. It also helps improve disease surveillance, emergency response, and disease control. Learn more at: http://www.africacdc.org and connect with us on LinkedIn, Twitter, Facebook and YouTube

    About Zipline

    Zipline is the world’s largest and most experienced autonomous delivery service. Today Zipline operates on four continents, makes a delivery somewhere in the world every 30 seconds, and serves more than 5,000 hospitals and health facilities. Zipline’s customers include federal and state health systems, health care institutions, restaurants and retailers. With more than 120 million commercial autonomous miles safely flown to date, Zipline is transforming access to healthcare, consumer products, and food. Our customers rely on Zipline to save lives, reduce emissions, increase economic opportunity, and provide new logistics services at scale.

    For years Zipline has worked with visionary governments and philanthropic organizations willing to take bold action to improve health outcomes for tens of millions of people. Partners include the Elton John AIDS Foundation, the Gates Foundation, Gavi, Pfizer, and The UPS Foundation, which have helped Zipline and its partner governments develop a wealth of empirical evidence that advances our understanding of how improved supply chain performance increases timely treatment and ultimately saves lives. For more information, visit Zipline.com/Africa.

    Media Contacts

    Margaret Edwin | Director of Communication and Public Information | EdwinM@africacdc.org

    Zipline Media Contacts    

    Olugbeminiyi Idowu | Talking Drum Communications (on behalf of Zipline) zipline@talkingdrumcomms.com

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  • Identifying Predictors of CAR T-Cell Therapy Response

    Identifying Predictors of CAR T-Cell Therapy Response

    Researchers at Cleveland Clinic Research have identified distinct predictors of response or resistance to different types of chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) T-cell therapy in people with relapsed/refractory B-cell non-Hodgkin’s Lymphoma (NHL), potentially leading to better personalization of treatment.

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    Although CD19-directed CAR T-cell therapy has revolutionized the treatment of many blood cancers, fewer than 40% of patients experience long-term remission.

    Post-infusion parameters such as CAR T-cell persistence, certain phenotypes, tumor burden and the immune microenvironment are correlated with CAR T-cell efficacy, but there have been no reliable baseline or pre-lymphodeletion biomarkers to predict clinical response.

    Relevance of unique protein signatures

    A new study presented at the American Society of Hematology (ASH) meeting shows that distinct baseline immune and plasma protein signatures can predict response and resistance to CAR T-cells that were engineered with 4-1BB, a signaling molecule that activates the T-cell after it binds to the tumor cell.

    Importantly, those biomarkers differ from predictors of response to CAR T-cells made with a different signaling molecule, CD28. Some of those predictors were also identified in a separate study presented at the ASH meeting.

    The distinctions are important because the current commercially available CAR T-cell products for B-cell NHL differ in the activation molecules used in their manufacturing processes. Axicabtagene ciloleucel incorporates a CD28 costimulatory domain, whereas tisagenlecleucel and lisocabtagenemaraleucel are both engineered using a 4-1BB costimulatory domain.

    In general, CD28 provides stronger, faster activation, leading to rapid proliferation but with slightly more toxicity, whereas 4-1BB is slower and provides longer-lasting and more resilient CAR T cells with lower toxicity. The choice of which product to use in a given patient is currently based on those properties, along with clinical characteristics.

    “We confirmed that a particular T-cell subset present in the starting material is very important for the therapeutic outcome. It suggests that we can pre-select the cells that are predicted to drive the response. We can isolate those and make responses better,” said lead investigator J. Joseph Melenhorst, PhD, Director of Cell Therapy and Immuno-Engineering Program and Professor at Cleveland Clinic’s Lerner College of Medicine.

    Varying predictors of response between different CAR T-cell products

    “Until now, it was not clear that the reasons for failing or responding to CAR T-cell therapy differed between the different CAR T-cell types,” says study co-investigator Paolo Caimi, MD, Associate Bone Marrow Transplant Director for Cellular Therapy. Going forward, we hope to use that information to help better personalize the choice of treatment for a given patient.”

    In a phase 1 clinical trial, 26 patients with relapsing/refractory B-cell NHL received CD19 CAR T-cells manufactured using 4-1BB. Of those, 19 patients achieved a complete remission at six months while three achieved partial remission. The responders showed a significantly higher frequency of early memory T cells, while non-responders had higher proportions of effector memory and terminal effector cells.

    Consistent with previous findings in B-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia, T cells with type 2 function were significantly enriched in the responders. This was the first such finding in NHL.

    At the same time, regulatory T cells were reduced in the non-responders. Proteomic analysis at baseline and post-infusion also identified differences in responders and non-responders.

    In a separate study involving 60 patients who were heavily pretreated for large B-cell lymphoma received axicabtagene ciloleucel. At six months, the overall response rate was 56.7% and the complete response rate was 57.6%. One specific baseline central memory CD8+ T-cell signature was found to strongly predict resistance to CD28-based CAR T-cell therapy in NHL, contradicting prior thinking that memory T cells are always beneficial in CAR T-cell therapy.

    In the non-responders, pre-infusion CD8+ T cells show type 2 polarization, which is thought to reflect tumor-driven adaptation that impairs cytotoxicity. This contrasts with the group’s previous findings in the 4-1BB-based CAR T-cell product tisagenlecleucel in leukemias, where memory function and type 2 CAR T-cells are necessary for long-term efficacy and persistence.

    “The biomarkers could not be any more different between the two CAR T types,” Dr. Melenhorst says. “We now believe that early identification of these phenotypes at leukapheresis may enable better patient stratification and guide use of alternative products to maximize therapeutic success.”

    Under Dr. Melenhorst’s leadership, Cleveland Clinic Research is now setting up an in-house point-of-care manufacturing center for CAR T-cell therapy. The center was approved to construct a Good Manufacturing Practice (GMP) facility required for developing and processing cellular products, which will be used in future clinical trials. “Our next step is to use our findings to produce more effective CAR T-cells,” Dr. Melenhorst says.

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  • Former ANZ CEO sues over axed $9mn bonus

    Former ANZ CEO sues over axed $9mn bonus

    Unlock the Editor’s Digest for free

    The former chief executive of ANZ has sued the Australian bank after it stripped him of millions of dollars in bonuses over a series of scandals during his tenure.

    Shayne Elliott ran ANZ for almost a decade before he was replaced by former HSBC executive Nuno Matos in May. His departure followed complaints of bond rigging and behavioural issues on the trading floor. The bank agreed a A$240mn ($160mn) penalty with regulators in September.

    Last month, ANZ cancelled more than A$30mn in bonuses for executives. Elliott was the worst hit, with A$13.5mn worth of shares covering 2024 and 2025 clawed back after the bank’s remuneration committee deemed him to be “ultimately accountable” for the issues that had hurt its reputation and financial performance.

    Elliott has hit back by filing a suit in the Supreme Court of New South Wales this week, claiming ANZ had breached its contract with him.

    The former banker said in a statement that he had “no alternative” and was fully committed to seeing the process through.

    “The bank and I had a clear, unambiguous agreement about the terms of my departure,” he said. “As you would expect, having entered into a contract, my expectation is that those terms would be honoured.” 

    Elliott said he accepted the need for accountability and that he had voluntarily proposed to the board that he forgo some of his incentives.

    ANZ said in a statement that none of its Australia-based executives received short-term bonuses for 2025 and that under rules set by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority, it was required to link executive pay to performance and risk outcomes, including when it released unvested equity.

    Paul O’Sullivan, chair of ANZ, said in a statement: “The Board has been considered and very deliberate in its assessment of remuneration outcomes. We are confident in our position and we will defend this matter vigorously.”

    ANZ is holding its annual meeting in Melbourne next week, with pay policies already under scrutiny despite the cancelled bonuses.

    Proxy advisory groups have recommended shareholders vote against remuneration resolutions on the basis that the cuts to incentives, including to Elliott’s pay, could have been even deeper given the scale of the bank’s issues.

    A banking industry veteran said he was not surprised that Elliott had opted to challenge the decision in court as a “matter of principle” and that the case would pile further pressure on ANZ’s chair at the annual meeting given the bonuses and praise dished out to Elliott in the past.

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  • The 2025 Asia-Pacific Value Creators Collection

    Across the Asia-Pacific region, growth has long been the headline story. But as economies and capital markets mature, the area is entering a new phase defined not only by expansion but also by disciplined, sustained value creation. From India’s market-leading returns to Japan’s new investor engagement models, Asia-Pacific companies are redefining what it means to translate growth into shareholder value. The emerging lessons offer guidance for companies worldwide.

    A Mosaic of Progress

    No two Asia-Pacific markets are alike, yet each is charting a path toward long-term value creation in a way that is grounded in distinctive structural and strategic choices.

    India has set the pace globally, delivering an average annual total shareholder return (TSR) of more than 15% over the past decade—the highest among major economies. Its outperformance rests on a solid foundation: simultaneous gains in revenue, profitability, and valuation multiples. India’s family-owned companies have been consistent outperformers, using long-term thinking, prudent diversification, and disciplined governance to compound value over time. As its IPO market matures and investor confidence deepens, India is proving that strong growth can coexist with high-quality returns.

    Japan is demonstrating the power of trust and communication in driving value. With stock markets reaching record highs and an average annual TSR of 13% from 2020 through 2024, leading Japanese companies are translating operational excellence into stronger investor engagement. The country’s hallmark Medium-Term Management Plans are evolving into true equity stories—strategic narratives that articulate not just what companies plan to achieve but why investors should choose them. The most successful firms are those that blend bold ambition with transparency, scenario-based planning, and capital-allocation discipline.

    China shows strong potential for transformation. Although it is hard to generalize, companies in Mainland China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan tend to lag those elsewhere in TSR. As leading companies professionalize governance and open to international investors, TSR has emerged as a strategic compass—a metric and mindset linking management actions to shareholder outcomes. The best performers are aligning business fundamentals, capital strategies, and investor communications. For those firms, TSR is an essential management tool, offering benefits ranging from strategic decision making to employee retention.

    Australia is a model of consistency and discipline. Over the past two decades, the Australian Stock Exchange has delivered an 8% annualized TSR, remaining steady and resilient through shocks ranging from the global financial crisis to COVID-19. Beyond the traditionally strong sectors of metals and mining and financial institutions, standout value has also come from the tech, medtech and pharma, and consumer goods sectors. The most successful companies have exhibited strong, self-funded revenue growth, often achieved through differentiated products and services. They have also used a targeted approach to M&A and portfolio strategy and have made above-average investments in product excellence and efficiency.

    Southeast Asia stands at an inflection point. Since 2019, nominal GDP has increased by 6% annually while market-cap-weighted TSR has reached 12%. However, the median TSR stands at just 4%, highlighting uneven performance. To unlock their full potential, enterprises must be both great companies (profitable and competitively advantaged) and have great stocks (with sustained TSR, optimal multiples, and a loyal long-term investor base). Companies that combine strategic clarity, investor alignment, and strong capital management will lead the next phase of the region’s TSR outperformance and set the standard for sustainable success.

    Common Threads in Value Creation

    Across these markets, we see five key themes for promoting higher TSR:

    • Aligning strategy with shareholder value is essential. Leading Asia-Pacific companies are integrating TSR analytics into their core strategy, linking business decisions to capital-market outcomes. TSR has become not just a scorecard but a management system.
    • Governance is the new growth driver. As India’s and China’s markets show, strong governance and transparent capital allocation inspire investor confidence and lift valuation multiples.
    • Communication creates value. Japan’s equity storytelling success illustrates that clarity, credibility, and empathy with investor expectations can move markets.
    • Portfolio focus matters. Australia’s long-term outperformers demonstrate that pruning noncore assets and reinvesting in competitive advantages are essential to sustained TSR.
    • Capital discipline attracts investors. Southeast Asia’s emerging leaders highlight the importance of rigorous capital allocation and alignment with investor types to translate economic growth into shareholder returns.

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    Lessons for the Rest of the World

    Asia-Pacific’s story is instructive for any company seeking to create lasting value amid shifting capital markets. Success in the region shows that superior TSR doesn’t depend solely on scale or macroeconomic tailwinds but on mindset: aligned incentives, disciplined governance, and a willingness to prioritize transparent communication with investors.

    Companies in the rest of the world can learn from the Asia-Pacific region’s best value creators by embedding TSR thinking into their strategy, embracing investor partnership as a source of strength, and maintaining agility in an age of technological and geopolitical disruption. At a time when resilience is the ultimate competitive advantage, this region offers both the playbook and the proof.

    Asia-Pacific companies have an opportunity to transform from growth to greatness in the coming decade. By deepening their commitment to disciplined capital deployment, governance excellence, and strategic communication, these companies can increase shareholder returns and set a new global standard for sustainable value creation.

    The 2025 Southeast Asia Value Creators Report
    Australian Value Creators: 20 Years of Excellence


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  • Apollo moves fast-growing lending unit out of storied buyout division

    Apollo moves fast-growing lending unit out of storied buyout division

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    Apollo has moved a fast-growing unit focused on complex lending out of its prized buyout division, in the latest sign of a shift towards private credit and away from a business that built it into a $900bn behemoth.

    The shake-up, which has not been previously reported, began earlier this year and was announced at a town hall this week, according to people familiar with the matter and a presentation seen by the Financial Times.

    Matt Nord, formerly co-head of private equity at Apollo, will helm the newly separated group known as hybrid capital, which crafts complex debt structures that are often attached to minority equity investments.

    Reed Rayman, a rising star who was behind Apollo’s lucrative takeovers in 2021 of Yahoo and AOL, was appointed deputy head of hybrid investing alongside veteran Apollo credit investor Chris Lahoud.

    The move highlights how chief executive Marc Rowan is pinning Apollo’s future on lending to businesses, a strategy that has transformed the group into a formidable challenger to the world’s biggest banks.

    It also comes as Rowan, who was elevated to CEO in 2021 after the exit of its billionaire co-founder Leon Black, has told Apollo’s employees and shareholders that splashy corporate buyouts are no longer a growth driver.

    “Private equity is an amazing asset class. It’s just not a growth business,” Rowan said at an investor conference on Wednesday.

    He added: “I think the growth you will see in our equity business will come in two places. One will be hybrid, and the second will be a reimagination of what private equity is as an industry.”

    David Sambur, Apollo’s veteran dealmaker, will be the sole head of its $127bn private equity business, which also includes real estate deals and second-hand fund stakes.

    Nord will remain co-head of Apollo’s flagship PE funds alongside Sambur, but will be less involved with the unit’s day-to-day operations.

    Apollo declined to comment.

    Rowan has positioned Apollo to be a lender to companies at the centre of the artificial intelligence and energy infrastructure boom that require complex financings suited for private capital groups with locked-up capital and not regulated banks funded with flightier deposits.

    By offering companies such as Intel customised borrowings, Apollo has been able to appeal to groups that need financing that does not resemble a traditional bond or common equity. For example, in the chipmaker’s transaction, Apollo designed an off-balance sheet joint-venture that allowed it to raise cash that still resembled a high-rated loan.

    Rowan has presented these lending commitments as opportunities for Apollo’s traditional private equity dealmakers to underwrite large, complex investments, but outside of the mould of traditional buyouts — a crowded marketplace with little differentiation among buyout firms.

    Apollo’s prominent recent hybrid deals include financing a takeover of members club Soho House and the carve-out of a large unit of waste management group GFL Environmental. The division has also worked with large companies such as Keurig Dr Pepper.

    Nord and Rayman were also part of a recent partnership with venture firm 8VC to invest several billions of dollars of hybrid investments into what Apollo has called the “next wave of American industrial innovation”.

    In recent years, Apollo’s hybrid business has earned far higher returns than its traditional buyouts. Since the beginning of 2024, hybrid deals earned nearly 20 per cent returns annualised, while recent buyouts earned less than 8 per cent, according to company filings.

    However, Apollo continues to believe its private equity business will see a good reception from investors as it raises a new flagship corporate buyout fund. The group is seeking to raise $25bn for its newest buyout fund, an increase from a predecessor fund that raised $20bn, according to people briefed on the matter.

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  • Energy industry seeks alternatives to combat supply chain strain

    Energy industry seeks alternatives to combat supply chain strain

    This year’s Data Center World Power show, held in San Antonio, Texas, produced an unexpected star turn: an industrial-scale gas turbine created from the retrofitted engine of a decommissioned passenger aircraft.

    The high level of interest in this unconventional mini power plant — manufactured by power services group ProEnergy and which can produce enough dispatchable electricity to power up to 40,000 homes — illustrates the significant supply difficulties affecting the global power industry.

    In the face of growing demand from megawatt-hungry artificial intelligence, coupled with an upward trend in consumer electricity use, global power demand is growing at almost 4 per cent per year.

    Efforts by power producers to meet this rising demand have created a race to secure key components such as electric cables, switchgears, and turbines, leading to complaints of significant backlogs across a host of critical industries, says Fabricio Sousa, president of energy advisory firm, Worley Consulting.

    Companies can wait up to five years to procure a large transformer or gas turbine, he notes, making supply shortages “one of the defining constraints” of AI’s acceleration. “We have a dynamic situation where demand is running at a sprint and supply at a marathon pace,” he says.

    Factors other than just rising demand are also at play. The most obvious are tariff-induced disruptions to global trade in key components, particularly into the US. China’s rapid deployment of renewable energy infrastructure is also absorbing equipment otherwise destined for export.

    But experts say the supply gap is not equal for all industries. The renewable energy sector, for instance, remains comparatively free of bottlenecks, thanks in large part to significant investment in manufacturing capacity and falling production costs over recent years.

    “When it comes to batteries, electric vehicles, wind turbines, solar panels, hydrogen electrolysers, all of this stuff, the market is actually heavily oversupplied right now,” says Antoine Vagneur-Jones, head of trade and supply chains at BloombergNEF.

    Data centres are also comparatively shielded from the effects of supply constraints because of the market leverage that their greater spending power affords them. Even so, buyers that succeed in procuring critical components can expect to pay over the odds.

    According to data collected by BloombergNEF, equipment shortages contributed to a 71 per cent increase in the US producer price index of power and distribution transformers between 2020-2024.

    In response, many manufacturers are increasing production. Hitachi Energy recently committed to invest more than $1bn to expand its production of electrical grid infrastructure in the US. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, ABB, Siemens and GE Vernova are among others to have made similar scaling up pledges.

    Building up more regional capacity represents another strategy adopted by manufacturers. Global energy technology specialist Schneider Electric, for example, operates a “multi-hub approach” in which it splits operations equally between France, Hong Kong and North America.

    “This means we’re able to respond quickly and flexibly to shifting needs, supporting projects in regions where electrification and renewables are accelerating fastest,” says Frédéric Godemel, Schneider’s executive vice-president of energy management.

    Even so, BloombergNEF’s Vagneur-Jones remains sceptical that such moves are enough to cover current backlogs, let alone meet future orders. Manufacturers could bet bigger, he says, but past experience is leading them to “play it very carefully” when it comes to scaling up.

    “Back in 2017-18, they announced lots of new facilities in the expectation that gas demand was going to go up and thus demand for their equipment, but it didn’t and they got burned pretty badly,” he explains.

    As a consequence, large-scale power users with the financial resources, such as data centres, are choosing to invest in their own on-site electricity generation. But, if getting hold of gas turbines is proving hard, what are the alternatives?

    The list is long but complex to navigate. One possibility is smaller gas turbines, for instance. They benefit from a shorter wait time but, compared with their larger equivalents, their power output is lower and more expensive.

    Another option being explored by data centres are combustion-style reciprocating engines. Again, these are comparatively easy to procure and deploy, but design limitations such as lower rotational speed and scaling challenges mean they are unsuitable as a primary power source.

    Many alternatives are less than ideal. Some, like fuel cells, which create electricity from electrochemical processes rather than combustion, are too expensive. Others, such as geothermal or small-scale nuclear, remain experimental or take too long to install.

    One possible exception is renewable power supported by battery storage, suggests Mike Hemsley, deputy director at the Energy Transitions Commission, a coalition of leaders in the clean energy sector. Even then, however, intermittency issues, low market penetration, and the high (albeit falling) cost of battery storage systems still present hurdles. 

    A jack-up installation vessel stands raised at sea beside towering wind turbines, with a large crane ship working nearby.
    One of renewable power group Vattenfall’s offshore wind turbines © Vattenfall

    “The best alternative is probably a mix of solar plus wind plus batteries, together with a grid connection maybe and perhaps also some natural gas if you can get it,” he concludes.

    Another way to ease supply-side pressures involves redesigning products. One cause of supply delays and high costs is the scarcity of rare earth metals and other raw materials that go into electrical equipment. Swapping in more readily accessible alternatives could present a way around this, as efforts to make electric cables from aluminium rather than copper illustrate.

    In the attempts to resolve current supply problems, advocates of clean energy fear that moves by power producers to revert to fossil fuel-based solutions could stall the greening of the grid.

    Claus Wattendrup, UK country manager of renewable power group Vattenfall, is adamant that such an eventuality can and should be avoided. What equipment manufacturers are lacking, he suggests, is a clear commitment by governments to press ahead with the energy sector’s electrification.

    “For suppliers, consistent and growing demand is essential to justify investment in new manufacturing capacity,” he says. “But without the certainty that comes from stable policy frameworks and predictable deployment, the industry risks losing momentum.” 

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  • New method improves the reliability of statistical estimations | MIT News

    New method improves the reliability of statistical estimations | MIT News

    Let’s say an environmental scientist is studying whether exposure to air pollution is associated with lower birth weights in a particular county.

    They might train a machine-learning model to estimate the magnitude of this association, since machine-learning methods are especially good at learning complex relationships.

    Standard machine-learning methods excel at making predictions and sometimes provide uncertainties, like confidence intervals, for these predictions. However, they generally don’t provide estimates or confidence intervals when determining whether two variables are related. Other methods have been developed specifically to address this association problem and provide confidence intervals. But, in spatial settings, MIT researchers found these confidence intervals can be completely off the mark.

    When variables like air pollution levels or precipitation change across different locations, common methods for generating confidence intervals may claim a high level of confidence when, in fact, the estimation completely failed to capture the actual value. These faulty confidence intervals can mislead the user into trusting a model that failed.

    After identifying this shortfall, the researchers developed a new method designed to generate valid confidence intervals for problems involving data that vary across space. In simulations and experiments with real data, their method was the only technique that consistently generated accurate confidence intervals.

    This work could help researchers in fields like environmental science, economics, and epidemiology better understand when to trust the results of certain experiments.

    “There are so many problems where people are interested in understanding phenomena over space, like weather or forest management. We’ve shown that, for this broad class of problems, there are more appropriate methods that can get us better performance, a better understanding of what is going on, and results that are more trustworthy,” says Tamara Broderick, an associate professor in MIT’s Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science (EECS), a member of the Laboratory for Information and Decision Systems (LIDS) and the Institute for Data, Systems, and Society, an affiliate of the Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory (CSAIL), and senior author of this study.

    Broderick is joined on the paper by co-lead authors David R. Burt, a postdoc, and Renato Berlinghieri, an EECS graduate student; and Stephen Bates an assistant professor in EECS and member of LIDS. The research was recently presented at the Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems.

    Invalid assumptions

    Spatial association involves studying how a variable and a certain outcome are related over a geographic area. For instance, one might want to study how tree cover in the United States relates to elevation.

    To solve this type of problem, a scientist could gather observational data from many locations and use it to estimate the association at a different location where they do not have data.

    The MIT researchers realized that, in this case, existing methods often generate confidence intervals that are completely wrong. A model might say it is 95 percent confident its estimation captures the true relationship between tree cover and elevation, when it didn’t capture that relationship at all.

    After exploring this problem, the researchers determined that the assumptions these confidence interval methods rely on don’t hold up when data vary spatially.

    Assumptions are like rules that must be followed to ensure results of a statistical analysis are valid. Common methods for generating confidence intervals operate under various assumptions.

    First, they assume that the source data, which is the observational data one gathered to train the model, is independent and identically distributed. This assumption implies that the chance of including one location in the data has no bearing on whether another is included. But, for example, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) air sensors are placed with other air sensor locations in mind.

    Second, existing methods often assume that the model is perfectly correct, but this assumption is never true in practice. Finally, they assume the source data are similar to the target data where one wants to estimate.

    But in spatial settings, the source data can be fundamentally different from the target data because the target data are in a different location than where the source data were gathered.

    For instance, a scientist might use data from EPA pollution monitors to train a machine-learning model that can predict health outcomes in a rural area where there are no monitors. But the EPA pollution monitors are likely placed in urban areas, where there is more traffic and heavy industry, so the air quality data will be much different than the air quality data in the rural area.

    In this case, estimates of association using the urban data suffer from bias because the target data are systematically different from the source data.

    A smooth solution

    The new method for generating confidence intervals explicitly accounts for this potential bias.

    Instead of assuming the source and target data are similar, the researchers assume the data vary smoothly over space.

    For instance, with fine particulate air pollution, one wouldn’t expect the pollution level on one city block to be starkly different than the pollution level on the next city block. Instead, pollution levels would smoothly taper off as one moves away from a pollution source.

    “For these types of problems, this spatial smoothness assumption is more appropriate. It is a better match for what is actually going on in the data,” Broderick says.

    When they compared their method to other common techniques, they found it was the only one that could consistently produce reliable confidence intervals for spatial analyses. In addition, their method remains reliable even when the observational data are distorted by random errors.

    In the future, the researchers want to apply this analysis to different types of variables and explore other applications where it could provide more reliable results.

    This research was funded, in part, by an MIT Social and Ethical Responsibilities of Computing (SERC) seed grant, the Office of Naval Research, Generali, Microsoft, and the National Science Foundation (NSF).

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