Category: 3. Business

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(Bloomberg) — Investors and policymakers are gearing up for a busy week of US economic reports that includes arguably the two most consequential data snapshots — employment and inflation.

The January jobs report on Wednesday and the consumer price index, due Friday, are unusually close together on the calendar after the partial government shutdown delayed each by a few days. Normally, the jobs report lands on a Friday and CPI comes the following week.

The employment report will be even more substantive than usual. In addition to the monthly payrolls and unemployment numbers, each January release includes an annual revision to the jobs count. The so-called benchmark update is expected to reveal a notable markdown to payrolls growth in the year through March 2025.

As for the regular monthly figures, economists predict payrolls rose 69,000 in January. Such an outcome would be the best in four months and offer some reassurance against further softening in the labor market. The unemployment rate is seen holding at 4.4%, near a four-year high.

In the CPI data, economists will look for more evidence that inflation is on a downward trend after previous reports were complicated by last year’s record-long government shutdown. Forecasters expect an underlying metric of inflation — which excludes food and energy costs — to rise at the slowest annual pace since early 2021.

The Federal Reserve chose to hold interest rates steady in January given signs of stabilization in the labor market and inflation that’s still elevated. Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Stephen Miran, who both dissented in favor of another rate cut, will speak in the coming week.

What Bloomberg Economics Says:

“For payrolls, we estimate the BLS benchmark revision will lower the level for March 2025 by about 650K jobs — somewhat less pessimistic than the consensus. January’s jobs print may surprise on the low side, as the BLS’s modifies its ‘birth and death’ model to account for recent hiring weakness.”

—Anna Wong, Stuart Paul, Eliza Winger, Chris G. Collins, Alex Tanzi and Troy Durie, economists. For full analysis, click here

Government figures on Tuesday are projected to show another month of solid retail sales in December. Despite elevated anxiety about the high cost of living and the shaky job market, household spending has been resilient — a trend that many economists expect to endure in the near term as annual tax refunds roll out.

While household spending growth has been solid, the housing market remains bogged down by affordability constraints. National Association of Realtors data due on Thursday will probably show sales of previously owned homes declined in January.

For more, read Bloomberg Economics’ full Week Ahead for the US Looking north, the Bank of Canada’s summary of deliberations will offer insight into its decision to hold rates steady for a second consecutive meeting, while warning that heightened uncertainty made its next move hard to predict. Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers will speak on Thursday about how artificial intelligence is impacting the economy.

Elsewhere, Japan’s election, inflation data from China to Switzerland to Brazil, gross domestic product in the UK, and rate decisions from Russia to Peru may focus investors.

Click here for what happened in the past week, and below is our wrap of what’s coming up in the global economy.

Asia

China sets the tone early with January credit data, including new yuan loans, aggregate financing, and money supply figures.

Investors want to see whether easier policy is translating into stronger economic momentum. Inflation readings later in the week, including producer and consumer prices due Wednesday, should help clarify whether deflationary pressures are easing or becoming more entrenched.

Fresh off a national election, Japan gets a big batch of data on Monday, with cash earnings and real wage data for December expected to shed light on whether income growth is fueling prices. Balance-of-payments figures are released the same day, while machinery orders later in the week will offer an update on capital spending momentum.

In Australia, attention turns to domestic demand indicators arriving Tuesday, including household spending for December and consumer confidence readings. The figures land a week after the Reserve Bank’s hawkish pivot.

South Korea has January unemployment data on Wednesday.

In Southeast Asia, the spotlight turns to growth. Malaysia releases fourth-quarter GDP on Friday, alongside current-account figures, offering insight into domestic demand.

India publishes January inflation on Thursday, a key test for the Reserve Bank of India as it weighs the scope for easing later this year. Food prices remain a swing factor, and any upside surprise could complicate the policy outlook.

In sum, the week’s data will help determine whether Asia’s cooling inflation narrative is intact — or whether, as Australia’s experience shows, central banks risk being pushed into a more stop-start policy path as growth and prices diverge across the region.

For more, read Bloomberg Economics’ full Week Ahead for Asia Europe, Middle East, Africa

Following the Bank of England’s close vote against a rate cut — and Governor Andrew Bailey’s apparent endorsement of bets on a 50% chance of a March move — data in the coming week will reveal the strength of the economy in the fourth quarter. Most analysts predict only a slight acceleration to growth of 0.2% from the prior three months.

Officials scheduled to speak include key voters including Bailey himself on Sunday and Catherine Mann on Monday. Chief economist Huw Pill is on the diary for Friday.

In the euro zone, following the European Central Bank’s decision to keep borrowing costs unchanged, an appearance on Monday in the European Parliament by President Christine Lagarde is among several by policymakers in the coming days. Data on trade and a second reading of GDP are due on Friday.

On Thursday, European Union leaders will gather for a meeting focused on improving the bloc’s single market — for which the ECB has provided a checklist of desired measures.

Switzerland’s inflation number on Friday may draw attention, with a result of just 0.1% — at the lower end of the Swiss National Bank’s target range — predicted by economists. Some even forecast a return to zero price growth, while the central bank chief, Martin Schlegel, has acknowledged that more negative readings are possible this year.

Both Norway and Denmark will release inflation numbers on Tuesday following Norway’s GDP reading the previous day.

For more, read Bloomberg Economics’ full Week Ahead for EMEA The diary features a number of central bank decisions around Africa:

Uganda on Monday and Mauritius on Wednesday are expected to leave their rates steady at 9.75% and 4.5% respectively, as policymakers assess the inflation trajectory. Kenya on Tuesday and Zambia on Wednesday are likely to reduce borrowing costs. Kenya’s central bank is seen cutting its rate by 25 basis points to 8.75%, with inflation likely to stay within its target band in the near term. Zambia is expected to deliver a 50 basis-point cut, to 13.75%, anticipating price growth to slow. Eastern Europe will also see some decisions:

On Thursday, the National Bank of Serbia may extend its long streak of unchanged rates amid slowing inflation and early signs of a pickup in growth. The Bank of Russia will likely choose between a third consecutive modest 50 basis-point cut or a hold at 16% at its first meeting of the year on Friday, as policymakers wonder if the inflation effects of a hike in value-added tax could persist. Consumer-price data later that day may show an acceleration. Latin America

Mexico-watchers on Monday get both mid- and full-month consumer price reports as a follow-up to the central bank’s decision to pause at 7%.

Inflation picked up in early January, which to some analysts may push Banxico to the sidelines until the second quarter, when pressures related to newly enacted tariffs and excise tax hikes, along with a minimum wage increase, subside. Analysts in Citi’s latest Mexico Expectations Survey see annual prints creeping higher in January and February.

Brazil will also post its January inflation report, which is likely to show some uptick after ending 2025 within the central bank’s target range. Consumer price increases overshot the top of the target range in three of the previous four years.

Banco Central do Brasil stands poised to finally begin whittling away at its 15% key rate next month, but how fast and how far remain open questions.

Argentina’s inflation ended 2025 moving in the wrong direction, with the annual reading posting slight increases in November and December while the monthly rate rose for four straight months.

Economy Minister Luis Caputo sees January’s monthly result likely coming in near December’s 2.8%, which implies a year-on-year figure of 32.2%.

Analysts in the central bank’s most recent survey marked up their 2026 inflation forecast to 22.4% from 20.1% previously.

Peru’s central bank board meets Thursday, with the country’s economy in no need of stimulus and inflation running below the 2% midpoint of its 1% to 3% target range. A fifth straight hold at 4.25% looks nearly certain there.

For more, read Bloomberg Economics’ full Week Ahead for Latin America –With assistance from Swati Pandey, Monique Vanek, Robert Jameson, Mark Evans, Laura Dhillon Kane, Tony Halpin and Kira Zavyalova.

©2026 Bloomberg L.P.

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Veolia Environnement (ENXTPA:VIE) is back in the spotlight after a US labor complaint involving Teamsters Local 63, which highlighted potential risks around operating costs, reputation, and public contracts ahead of the next earnings update.

See our latest analysis for Veolia Environnement.

At a share price of €32.02, Veolia Environnement has posted a 30 day share price return of 5.29% and a 90 day share price return of 11.03%. Its 1 year total shareholder return of 20.56% and 5 year total shareholder return of 80.05% indicate momentum that has held up through both recent US workforce initiatives and the ongoing Teamsters complaint.

If labour issues and infrastructure demand are on your radar, it could be worth seeing what else is moving in essential services and utilities through our 24 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks.

With Veolia trading at €32.02 and indicators like a value score of 3 and an intrinsic discount estimate, the key question is whether current momentum leaves any upside on the table or if markets are already pricing in future growth.

With Veolia Environnement at €32.02 against a narrative fair value of €35.71, the current price sits below what this widely followed storyline implies.

Strong multi-year growth in Water Technologies and Hazardous Waste segments is being driven by rising health, resilience, and environmental compliance requirements worldwide, as reflected in Veolia’s record order book and robust +8.9% growth in booster activities. This is likely to support sustained revenue and EBITDA growth, underpinned by tightening global regulations on pollution and water safety.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what is behind that fair value gap? The narrative leans on steady revenue expansion, thicker profit margins, and a higher earnings multiple than many peers. The full story connects those moving parts into one valuation roadmap.

Result: Fair Value of €35.71 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

However, earnings pressure from flat tariffs in France and weaker France Municipal Waste revenue could quickly challenge the idea that Veolia’s current valuation gap will persist.

Find out about the key risks to this Veolia Environnement narrative.

If you set the story about future cash flows aside and just look at earnings, Veolia trades on a P/E of 19.4x, roughly in line with its 19.4x fair ratio and slightly below the 20.4x peer average, while sitting a touch above the 19.3x global industry level. That kind of tight clustering hints that much of the good news may already be in the price, so the key question is what would need to change for the market to shift that ratio meaningfully in either direction.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

If you read this and feel the story should look different, you can put the data to work yourself and build a custom view in a few minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Veolia Environnement research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

If Veolia has your attention, do not stop here. Casting a wider net with focused screeners can surface opportunities you might regret missing later.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include VIE.PA.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

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Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (ARWR) is back on many watchlists after a sharp total return over the past 3 months and the past year. This has prompted fresh questions about how its RNAi pipeline and current valuation line up.

See our latest analysis for Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals.

With the share price at US$64.52, Arrowhead has given investors a 64.47% 90 day share price return and a 218.77% 1 year total shareholder return. This suggests that momentum has recently built despite softer shorter term moves.

If Arrowhead’s run has you thinking about what else is moving in health related RNA and data driven therapies, it could be worth scanning 26 healthcare AI stocks as a fresh set of ideas.

After a move like that, the key question is simple: is Arrowhead still trading below what its pipeline and cash flows might justify, or has the recent run already pushed the stock to fully reflect future growth?

At a last close of $64.52 versus a narrative fair value of $64.08, Arrowhead is framed as slightly ahead of that fair value estimate, with the story hinging on how its RNAi pipeline translates into future earnings.

Arrowhead’s advancing late-stage clinical pipeline, especially the expected launch of plozasiran for FCS and SHTG, plus pivotal studies for three other RNAi therapies targeting major unmet needs, positions the company to capitalize on rising demand for innovative treatments driven by an aging population and increasing prevalence of chronic and genetic diseases, which could significantly accelerate revenue growth as approvals and launches materialize.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what kind of revenue curve and profit margins sit behind that small gap between price and fair value? The narrative leans on ambitious earnings, a steep rerating in valuation multiples, and a tight discount rate working together in ways the share price does not fully echo. Curious how those moving parts add up in the model and what would need to happen in the real world for them to line up?

Result: Fair Value of $64.08 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

However, there is still clear risk that delayed or disappointing Phase 3 outcomes, or weaker than expected partner milestones, could quickly challenge this optimistic setup.

Find out about the key risks to this Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals narrative.

While the narrative fair value of $64.08 paints Arrowhead as roughly in line with today’s $64.52 share price, our DCF model points the other way. On that cash flow view, Arrowhead is trading about 55% below an estimated value of $144.20, which is a wide gap for investors to think through.

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 53 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match – so you never miss a potential opportunity.

If you see the numbers differently or prefer to stress test your own set of assumptions, you can build a complete Arrowhead narrative yourself in just a few minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

If Arrowhead has sharpened your curiosity, do not stop here. The real edge often comes from comparing a few different high quality ideas side by side.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include ARWR.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

The Seahawks and the Patriots aren’t the only ones gearing up for a fight.

AI rivals Anthropic and OpenAI have launched a war of ads trying to court corporate America during one of the biggest entertainment nights of the year.

Ahead of the Super Bowl, Anthropic has launched a series of ads going hard at its rival.

For the scrawny 23-year-old who wants a six-pack, a ripped older man who is supposed to depict a chatbot suggests insoles that “help short kings stand tall” because “confidence isn’t just built in the gym”. And for the man trying to improve communication with his mom: his therapist prescribes “a mature dating site that connects sensitive cubs with roaring cougars” in case he can’t fix that relationship.

All four ads end with the same tagline: “Ads are coming to AI. But not to Claude.” There’s no explicit mention of ChatGPT, but the subtext is clear.

Even Sam Altman laughed. But he also called the ads “so clearly dishonest” before diving into a lengthy critique on X.

“Our most important principle for ads says that we won’t do exactly this; we would obviously never run ads in the way Anthropic depicts them,” Altman wrote. “We are not stupid and we know our users would reject that.”

Altman stressed that OpenAI’s decision to include ads, announced last month, makes the product more accessible. “We believe everyone deserves to use AI and are committed to free access,” he wrote. And Altman didn’t shy away from taking some shots of his own. “Anthropic serves an expensive product to rich people. We are glad they do that and we are doing that too, but we also feel strongly that we need to bring AI to billions of people who can’t pay for subscriptions,” he wrote. (Claude has a free subscription version, too.)

ChatGPT’s ad policy is not live yet, but OpenAI maintains on its website that ads will be “separate and clearly labeled” and won’t influence the answers users see. The company also states that it will not share conversations with ChatGPT with advertisers, and is focused on prioritising trust, claiming it will give users the option to turn off personalization or opt for an ad-free paid plan. The company said the chatbot would initially have ads show up at the bottom of answers “when there’s a relevant sponsored product or service based on your current conversation”.

Altman wasn’t always sold on including ads in ChatGPT’s business model. In October 2024, he dismissed the idea as a “last resort”. But in recent years, as OpenAI invests even more heavily in AI infrastructure, the company’s growth in new subscribers has dwindled.

Anthropic’s critique of OpenAI didn’t come out of nowhere: Anthropic was founded by former OpenAI researchers who left based on concerns about the company’s direction on AI safety. Anthropic wrote in a 4 February blogpost that Claude would remain ad-free because doing otherwise would prevent the chatbot from being a “genuinely helpful assistant for work and for deep thinking”. The company likened open-ended conversations with AI assistants, which are often deeply personal or complex, to those with a trusted adviser. “The appearance of ads in these contexts would feel incongruous – and, in many cases, inappropriate,” the company wrote.

Even if OpenAI says it won’t share user data directly with advertisers, targeted advertising more broadly has been criticized for exploiting users’ vulnerabilities. In this case, that concern could extend to users asking ChatGPT questions about their mental and physical health, similar to the issues shown in Anthropic’s ads. But there’s also a chance targeted advertising could help with reining in AI’s most toxic attributes. Big corporations that buy in may pull out in response to hateful or egregious content. Many websites and apps, from Google to Instagram, already have ads, so it may not be a huge adjustment for users.

It is unclear whether Altman’s attempts to deliver more revenue with ads will drive users to ad-free competitors. But Anthropic is betting on it.

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By Isabel Wang, Gordon Gottsegen and Joseph Adinolfi

‘It seems like there are two different markets right now,’ strategist says

Markets are looking increasingly divided between retail favorites and steady performers.

Wall Street lived a tale of two markets this week.

Once-popular momentum trades that showered investors with outsize rewards last year finally hit the skids. Wednesday was the worst single-day showing for popular momentum stocks since 2022, based on the performance of Goldman Sachs’s U.S. High-Beta Momentum Index – although the index rallied back to finish the week essentially unchanged.

Meanwhile, boring yet steady value plays quietly stacked wins, with the value-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA topping 50,000 pointsw for the first time ever. A fund that tracks the equal-weighted version of the S&P 500 index RSP finished the week at a fresh record high, outperforming its capitalization-weighted sibling SPY by the widest weekly margin since 2020, FactSet data showed.

“It seems like there are two different markets right now,” said Mark Hackett, chief market strategist at Nationwide, during an interview with MarketWatch. “There are the ones that are levered and volatile, and the ones that are just set-it-and-forget-it.”

Silver (SI00) and bitcoin (BTCUSD) were two examples of the type of levered, retail-driven markets Hackett was referring to. Over the past few months, individual investors have become much more involved in the silver trade, he noted.

Based on trading in the most active futures contract, silver has fallen by more than 35% from its intraday record north of $120 an ounce, Dow Jones Market Data showed. Bitcoin briefly erased more than half of its value earlier this week, before a Friday rebound pushed it back up to the $70,000 threshold – though it’s still well below its record high north of $126,000 from October.

Software stocks, which minted gains for investors for years, also got hammered this week. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF IGV fell 8.7% this week, its worst showing since April 4, FactSet data showed.

“Active traders can and do migrate between hot stocks and sectors, and when those sectors fall out of favor, they decline,” said Steve Sosnick, chief market strategist at Interactive Brokers. In many cases, momentum trades are being kept afloat by the speculations rather than valuations, he added.

At the other end of the spectrum, previously lagging cyclical and defensive names outperformed the broader market this week, helping buck the downtrend for the major indexes. The S&P 500’s consumer-staples sector XX:SP500.30 was the best performer among the large-cap index’s 11 sectors, up 6% for the week. The industrials XX:SP500.20 and materials XX:SP500.15 sectors were also up 4.7% and 3.5% for the week, respectively, according to FactSet data.

The broad-based gains resulted in more stocks within the S&P 500 moving higher, even as weak performance by the index’s dominant tech names pushed it lower. On Wednesday, 92 S&P 500 members tallied fresh 52-week closing highs, the most since November 2024, Dow Jones Market Data showed.

The split underscores the sentiment tug-of-war on Wall Street – with risk-takers chasing hype, while steady hands take a more measured approach. A crucial takeaway of the week might be that as investor sentiment and leveraged bets continue to drive swings in broad swaths of the market, more wild moves could be in store.

See: Dow closes above 50,000 for first time after rough week for U.S. stock market

Wild swings in individual stocks and assets still managed to bleed into the major U.S. equity indexes, with all three snapping back and forth like a yo-yo. The Dow Jones Industrial Average managed a weekly gain of 2.5% as stocks staged a strong recovery on Friday.

The rebound gave the S&P 500 SPX and the Nasdaq Composite COMP their best days since at least Nov. 24, yet both tech-heavy indexes ended the week down 0.1% and 1.8%, respectively, according to FactSet data.

To be sure, there was no obvious villain, like a geopolitical shock or tariff threats, sending the market into a tailspin this week. Instead, it was just a steady stream of corporate and economic headlines chipping away at risk appetite, forcing both speculators and value investors to second-guess everything they thought they knew.

It started with a new automation tool from Anthropic, the developer behind the Claude chatbot, which on Tuesday sparked a selloff across software and financial-services stocks due to concerns that AI could erode their business models. The anxiety then spilled into the broader market on Thursday after Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) issued weaker-than-expected guidance for the first quarter and Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL) (GOOG) doubled its planned AI spending for 2026. Together, these developments reignited fears over whether AI will truly live up to the hype.

Other macro concerns, such as a weakening labor market and upcoming nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran, also weighed on market sentiment.

“People are actually going back to something everyone’s forgot about for a long time – you’re actually seeing some value [investing] or fundamentals coming back in,” said Ben Fulton, CEO of WEBs Investments.

In Fulton’s views, momentum stocks did “run far ahead of fundamentally sound companies,” so investors need to “realign the car” while markets are moving quickly.

-Isabel Wang -Gordon Gottsegen -Joseph Adinolfi

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  02-07-26 0900ET
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