Category: 3. Business

If you want an outdoor public pool in your community, you and your neighbours should demand one.

That’s the lesson learned from Saskatoon’s history, according to information supplied by the city’s archivist, Jeff O’Brien.

Three of Saskatoon’s existing outdoors pools were built in response to public campaigns, and pressure from residents helped save two of the pools from closure.

“I’m glad they’re keeping the pool,” Diane Deptuck told the Saskatoon StarPhoenix in July 2009 as Mayfair Pool turned 50 years old. “There are too many children around here who have nothing to do all day.”

Deptuck, who had taken her six-year-old grandson to the pool as its shelf life was ending, recalled teaching her daughter to swim in Mayfair Pool. But it was leaking and Deptuck described the state of the change rooms as “horrid” for the last 15 years, specifically decrying the “stench.”

The pool reopened in 2012 after a $4.8-million refresh. That was the second time it had been slated for closure and then resurrected. In the early 1990s, it was identified as a candidate for closure, but public pressure kept it open — even the “horrid” change rooms.

Like Saskatoon’s Lathey and George Ward pools, Mayfair was built in direct response to community pressure. A petition with 10,000 names was presented to city council in 1958 and Mayfair Pool opened on July 4, 1959. It cost $166,514, a sliver of the price of its rehabilitation 50 years later.

Now it’s George Ward’s turn to go through the same debate. The Holliston neighbourhood pool marked 60 years of operation on July 1, but it’s actually the newest in terms of its debut.

George Ward was built for $225,000 after a petition with 8,000 signatures was presented to council in 1963. That petition included the suggestion the pool be named for Ward, the city’s recreation director.

Last month, the closure of George Ward was presented to council among 108 options to reduce the property tax increase. Council never even voted on the proposal, which would have saved $152,000 in annual operational costs.

Likewise, council punted options to reduce the outdoor pool season and the hours the pools are open. A motion to increase the cost of admission was defeated 9-2.

City manager Jeff Jorgenson acknowledged that some of the proposals to reduce the tax hike were “unpalatable.”

But a city report says George Ward will need to be replaced in five years, and no funding or plan exists to accomplish that.

Sixty years ago, when the youngest of the city’s pools first opened, Saskatoon had grown to about 115,000 people. The population has nearly tripled since then, but no new outdoor pools have been built. The city now boasts 67 neighbourhoods, but just four outdoor pools.

A century of splashes

Riversdale Pool, which cost $16,283.31 to build originally, marked a century since its debut in July. But it has been almost completely replaced over that period, including adding a waterslide in 1986 for $150,000 and replacement of the basin in 1995 for $1.4 million.

Lathey Pool closed for four years starting in 1985 after the city decided it needed to be replaced. Saskatoon’s second outdoor pool, the first to be built on the east side of the South Saskatchewan River, cost $155,000 to build and opened in 1955.

The cost of replacing it was just shy of $1 million.

Michael Roma, a managing partner with RC Strategies, an Edmonton-based consulting company that focuses on community services, said building an outdoor pool today can cost $20 million or more.

Combine that with the short season — Saskatoon pools open in June and close by September — and it’s difficult to justify, Roma said in a recent interview.

“You’re not making money off of any pool, for sure,” he said. “There’s an investment or subsidy that has to go into it.”

Changing weather patterns and new hazards like heavy smoke from wildfires linked to climate change can further reduce the “social return” from such an investment, which already has limited availability, he said.

Indoor pools can cost three times as much, but it can be easier to justify the cost because they’re available far more often, Roma said.

“Even though [outdoor pools are] cheaper [to build,] even though they are popular. Like, you can’t argue with the nostalgia of walking through a neighbourhood and hearing kids splash around in an outdoor pool.”

Saskatoon has added other, cheaper summer amenities like spray pads, which number 23, and 30 paddling pools.

Roma stopped short of saying outdoor pools could one day disappear from the Prairies, but he said the availability per capita will continue to shrink.

“I can’t speak to why there are any outdoor pools in the Prairies, but if you made a case against an outdoor pool, it would probably be stronger in the Prairie provinces than most places in the world.”

That sinking feeling

Part of the problem is that population growth does not generally pay for major facilities through development levies, which is why new venues do not appear when a city experiences a major influx of people like Saskatoon, he said. 

Cities struggle just to pay for maintenance and operation of existing amenities.

“There’s an affordability train that is going to hit a wall.”

Roma’s company has crafted strategic plans for recreation facilities for both Saskatoon and Regina. The Regina plan identified two outdoor pools in need of replacing, the same dilemma looming for George Ward in Saskatoon.

Regina city hall announced in late 2018 a plan to rebuild the then-71-year-old Wascana Pool for $16.5 million and permanently close the 72-year-old Maple Leaf Pool in the city’s Heritage neighbourhood.

But people showed up at Regina budget talks in 2018 to voice their opposition to closing Maple Leaf Pool. Eventually, it was demolished and rebuilt for $6.2 million in response to passionate residents determined to keep their beloved outdoor amenity.

Regina still boasts five outdoor public pools compared to just four in Saskatoon, which has more than 50,000 additional residents. Edmonton, with more than three times the population of Saskatoon, only has five outdoor pools.

Reisha Peters, president of the Holliston Community Association, told Saskatoon Morning last month that she was “a little heartbroken” to hear George Ward Pool might close. She takes her own children there for swimming lessons.

She said the loss of one of Saskatoon’s pools would place enormous pressure on the other three.

“Lathey Pool, in particular,” Peters said. “If it’s a hot day, you might be waiting an hour in line just to get in, and especially with little kids, that’s a big ask.”

An agonizing decision on either closing or spending millions to revitalize George Ward Pool awaits Saskatoon city council in the coming years.

In Moose Jaw, a plan to replace an outdoor pool of the same vintage as George Ward is estimated to cost about $13 million with no funding plan in place.

But how pools are built has changed since the original was built, including much better mechanical systems and tunnels around the basin to make repairs easier. Those advances can reduce the cost of maintenance and operations.

Roma said expectations for an outdoor pool have also grown beyond a rectangular tank, however. People now want waterslides, hot tubs and other amenities.

“People expect something different now than they would have in the ‘60s.”

While tech billionaire Elon Musk seems to be reigning supreme in the realm of aerospace technology, China’s rocket startup LandSpace is establishing itself as a competitor against Musk’s SpaceX.

It is widely believed that the Chinese space tech firm draws inspiration from SpaceX’s innovative approach. It became the first Chinese company to conduct a reusable rocket test earlier this month.

The contender is challenging the Musk-owned aerospace and space transportation company with remarkable strides reflecting its ambitions.

Although the Zhuque-3 rocket test ended in failure, LandSpace’s objective to become a leader in reusable rockets is energising China’s space industry, which was mostly dominated by risk-averse state-owned entities.

Zhuque-3 chief designer Dai Zheng noted that his decision to join LandSpace was influenced by SpaceX’s focus on reusability and rapid iteration.

LandSpace aims to provide China with a low-cost launch option like SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket, which is critical for Beijing’s plans to establish 10,000 satellite constellations in the coming decades.

LandSpace’s startup culture signifies a huge shift in China’s space programme, which has historically shied away from failures.

As per reports churned out by China’s state media outlets, failed attempts by both LandSpace and state-owned firms indicate a changing attitude towards risk in the industry.

As LandSpace is gearing up for another launch after the December failure of Zhuque-3, it seems relieved through SpaceX’s experience.

How LandSpace’s scenario draws comparison with SpaceX is that SpaceX’s first successful Falcon booster landing came after two unsuccessful attempts, illustrating the value of persistence in the pursuit of innovation.

To go public and attract investment, LandSpace seems adamant about carving out its niche in the landscape of commercial spaceflight and transforming the future of China’s space endeavours.

The UK is poised for an influx of cheap Chinese imports that could bring down inflation amid the fallout from Donald Trump’s global trade war, leading economists have said.

After figures showed China’s trade surplus surpassed $1tn (£750bn) despite Washington’s tariff policies hitting exports to the US, the Bank of England said the UK was among the nations emerging as alternative destinations for the goods.

Stephen Millard, a deputy director at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, said: “There is an expectation that given the high tariffs the US are imposing on China, that China will divert its trade elsewhere and one of those places will be the UK.”

This month Catherine Mann, an external member of the Bank’s rate setting monetary policy committee, told MPs on the Treasury committee there were early signs of trade diversion affecting UK inflation.

“Import prices have started to moderate on the back of sterling appreciation and some of the spillover of the diversion of Chinese products from the US tariff burdens to other places, including to our docks. Not a lot. Actually less than I would’ve thought. But it’s there.”

Official figures released by Beijing this month show China’s trade surplus reached more than $1tn in the year to November for the first time, as manufacturers shipped more to non-US markets to sidestep Trump’s tariffs.

While exports to the US plummeted by 29% year-on-year, sales to markets elsewhere ballooned, including a 15% rise in exports to the EU and 9% jump to the UK compared with the same period a year earlier.

In its November monetary policy report, the Bank said Chinese exports to the UK and euro area had increased, while those to the US had declined. “Early evidence suggests [tariffs] are having a relatively limited effect on global growth and a slightly disinflationary impact on the UK, driven mainly by trade diversion,” the report said.

Headline inflation in the UK is running at 3.2% and is forecast to drop close to the 2% target set by the government by the middle of 2026. Measures in Rachel Reeves’s autumn budget – including relief on energy bills and fuel duty – are expected to cut the headline rate by as much as 0.5 percentage points.

This month the Bank cut its base rate by a quarter-point to 3.75% amid cooling inflationary pressures. Financial markets predict Threadneedle Street will probably reduce borrowing costs by at least another quarter-point in 2026 amid weaker levels of economic growth and rising unemployment.

China ranks as the UK’s largest market for imports behind Germany, with £70bn shipped to Britain in the year to June, an increase of 4.1% from a year earlier. Cars, telecoms and sound equipment were the main imports.

Millard said the impact on UK inflation from an increase in Chinese imports was unlikely to be large, but could still add to a slowdown in the headline inflation rate in 2026.

“There is potential for a fall in the price of Chinese imports as they attempt to sell more into the UK, which could have a reasonable effect on our import price index,” he added.

Diversion of Chinese exports has rung alarm bells for European manufacturers worried about being undercut by a cheap influx of goods, leading to pressure on EU leaders and the UK government to respond.

The French president, Emmanuel Macron, said after a visit to Beijing in December that the EU could be forced to take “strong measures” to curb a ballooning imbalance between Chinese imports and exports with the 27-nation bloc.

In the UK, ministers have pledged to protect domestic steel producers from a mounting glut of the metal on global markets, much of which comes from subsidised Chinese producers.

However, buyers could benefit from lower prices, with the potential to alleviate concerns over inflationary pressures re-emerging next year.

Jack Meaning, the UK chief economist at Barclays, said there was limited evidence of trade diversion from China so far, but suggested import prices in the UK were on track to moderate in 2026 amid weaker growth in the world economy.

“Our forecast is for core goods inflation to decelerate as we move through 2026, from about 1.5% in 2025 to below 1%,” he said. “Part of that story is a more global slowdown; a reorganising of excess demand in the global economy, coming into the UK as a small open economy.”

This study complies with all relevant ethical regulations. The analyses were conducted using aggregated, publicly available data from international repositories and previously published sources. No individual-level human or animal data were collected, and therefore, ethical approval from an institutional review board or ethics committee was not required.

Model description

We estimated the macroeconomic burden of diabetes mellitus for 204 countries. The definition of diabetes mellitus followed the GBD study’s diabetes mellitus category³⁹. Of the 204 studied countries, data from 144 were completed for our projections. We directly calculated the macroeconomic burden of diabetes mellitus for these 144 countries using the health macroeconomic model described in detail in the previous studies^{15,16,17,18,19,20}. In this model, diabetes mellitus affects the economy through three main pathways. First, it reduces effective labor supply through mortality and morbidity. Diabetes mellitus deaths shrink the population, including working-age individuals, while diabetes mellitus morbidity reduces productivity and increases absenteeism. We adjust labor loss using age-specific and sex-specific labor force participation rates, reducing the potential for overestimation. Second, diabetes-related treatment costs reduce aggregate savings and investment by reallocating resources from capital accumulation to healthcare consumption. While reductions in such costs may boost investment, some resources may be redirected to other diseases, slightly overstating the net economic gains. Third, we estimate only the excess informal caregiving time caused by diabetes mellitus, excluding care related to coexisting conditions. This avoids overstating the informal care burden.

We estimated the additional cost associated with the rise in diabetes mellitus cases and increased mortality among patients with diabetes mellitus attributable to COVID-19. The number of COVID-19 cases was based on daily counts of individuals infected with COVID-19, as estimated by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation⁴⁰. We analyzed the long-term (2020–2050) impact of infections during the first 3 years of the pandemic—1 January 2020 to 1 September 2022—according to updated COVID-19 infection projections from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. To do so, we first derived the number of additional cases of diabetes based on the increased risk of incident diabetes in COVID-19 patients; a cohort study of 181,280 participants between 1 March 2020 and 30 September 2021 found an HR of 1.40 (95% CI = 1.36–1.44) for incident diabetes in people who survived the first 30 days of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‑CoV‑2) infection relative to those who had not contracted SARS-CoV-2 (ref. ⁸). Then, we calculated the increased mortality rate among diabetic patients due to the increased risk of death from COVID-19 infection; a cohort study of 6,014 inpatients with diabetes—either COVID-19 positive (n = 698) or negative (n = 5,316)—revealed that diabetic patients hospitalized with COVID-19 were 3.6 times more likely to die than those not infected⁷. Finally, we estimated the macroeconomic cost associated with the increased mortality and morbidity of diabetes due to COVID-19. The projected long-term burden (2020–2050) reflects the elevated diabetes risk among individuals with prior COVID-19 infection from 2020 to 2022, who had a 40% higher incidence (HR = 1.40, 95% CI = 1.36–1.44) compared to controls.

Providing informal or unpaid care—which constitutes a substantial proportion of diabetes mellitus care—reduces the formal labor hours of caregivers. We considered the labor impact of informal care related to diabetes mellitus by subtracting the following estimate of effective labor from the labor supply for each diabetes mellitus patient. Specifically, we assumed informal care time as 4.0 h for each diabetes patient for each week, based on the estimation provided in ref. ²⁹, and assumed that full-time employees work an average of 35.9 h per week, as reported by the International Labour Organization⁴¹. Consequently, for each patient with diabetes mellitus, the labor supply is reduced by 0.11 (4.0 divided by 35.9) units of labor due to informal caregiving. We also considered the detailed age distribution of informal caregivers to estimate the impact of informal labor loss on the macroeconomic burden. For sensitivity analyses, we revised our estimates of weekly informal caregiving hours. We set the lower bound at 0.285 h per week, calculated by multiplying the lowest reported disability prevalence among diabetic adults (15%⁴²) by the conservative weekly caregiving time (1.9 h per week²⁹) for individuals with mild diabetes. The upper bound remained at 8.3 h per week²⁹, reflecting the higher caregiving needs observed among older populations with more severe diabetes. Formal caregiving is not considered an economic loss, as it involves paid labor and generates economic value. It is treated as part of the overall economy in our accounting framework.

To quantify the macroeconomic burden of diabetes mellitus, we compared aggregate output (using GDP) across three scenarios over the period 2020–2050: (1) the status quo scenario, in which no interventions are implemented that could reduce the mortality, morbidity, or prevalence of diabetes mellitus relative to current and projected rates; (2) a counterfactual scenario, in which we assumed the complete elimination of diabetes mellitus at zero cost; and (3) a COVID-19 scenario, in which we estimated the increased mortality and morbidity of diabetes mellitus due to COVID-19 between 1 January 2020 and 1 September 2022. The macroeconomic burden of diabetes mellitus was calculated as the cumulative difference in projected GDP between scenarios (1) and (2), which served as the baseline. Furthermore, because COVID-19 increases the incidence of, and mortality from, diabetes mellitus, we calculated the additional macroeconomic burden attributable to COVID-19 as the cumulative difference due to the increased diabetes mellitus cases between scenarios (2) and (3) during this period. We describe our counterfactual assumptions in detail below.

In the counterfactual scenario, we assume the complete elimination of diabetes mellitus starting in 2020, consistent with the comparative risk assessment framework adopted by the GBD study. In this scenario, all diabetes-related mortality and morbidity are fully averted, while risks from other causes remain unchanged. This approach facilitates consistent cause-specific attribution of economic burden but may overestimate benefits, especially among older adults with substantial competing mortality risks. In translating this health shock into economic outcomes, our health macroeconomic model assumes that eliminating diabetes would increase the effective labor supply by reducing disease-related absenteeism, presenteeism and premature mortality. It would also reduce healthcare expenditures for diabetes treatment, thereby boosting aggregate savings and physical capital accumulation through increased investment. These health-induced changes then generate downstream effects on GDP growth over time. We do not model general equilibrium feedbacks such as changes in wages, labor force participation preferences or government budget reallocation across sectors. Instead, we apply a partial equilibrium framework with fixed labor participation rates and savings behaviors, where changes stem only from shifts in the disease burden. As such, we provide a structured yet conservative estimate of the macroeconomic burden of diabetes mellitus. These estimates are based on a simulation model and should not be interpreted as precise causal effects; rather, they are indicative projections based on clearly defined and transparent assumptions.

Data

We considered data for 204 countries and a set of World Bank regions. GDP projections for the status quo scenario, saving rates and health expenditures were taken from the World Bank’s database^43,44,45. The mortality and morbidity data (years of life lost due to premature mortality and years lost due to disability) were obtained from the recently updated GBD 2021 (refs. ^39,46). We relied on the International Labour Organization for age–sex-specific labor force projections⁴⁷ and the Barro–Lee education database for age–sex-specific data on average years of schooling⁴⁸. We obtained the age–sex-specific population from the Department of Economic and Social Affairs population dynamics database⁴⁹. Using these data sources, we calculated human capital according to the Mincer equation⁵⁰ and inferred the experience-related human capital component by relying on the corresponding estimates discussed in ref. ⁵¹. The physical capital data were taken from the Penn World Table projections⁵², and we followed standard economic estimates for the value of the output elasticity of physical capital (that is, the percentage change in output for a 1% change in the physical capital stock)⁵³.

We used data to calculate treatment costs (ref. ³⁸); these data include both inpatient and outpatient medical costs of diabetes mellitus. Supplementary Table 1 shows country-specific treatment data and Supplementary Table 2 shows other parameter values and data sources used in the macroeconomic model. To make country estimates comparable, all costs were converted to 2017 international dollars (2017 INT$). For 60 countries, some data—mostly on education, physical capital and the saving rate—were incomplete (see Supplementary Table 3 for details); reliable data on GDP and the prevalence rate of diabetes mellitus were available for these countries. Similar to the previous research¹⁸, we used a linear projection to approximate the economic burden of diabetes mellitus for these countries, which is shown in detail in Supplementary Table 4.

Modeling details

The goal was to calculate the economic effect of diabetes mellitus due to healthcare expenses and productivity losses from death, morbidity and informal care. For each country, we performed the following analysis:

In step 1, we identified the disease burden of diabetes mellitus (in terms of mortality, morbidity and treatment costs).

In step 2, we constructed economic projections for the following two scenarios: a status quo scenario, in which GDP is projected to grow based on current estimates and projections of disease prevalence, and a counterfactual scenario, in which diabetes mellitus prevalence is eliminated from the beginning of the time frame. The economic projections use a macroeconomic production function and can be further decomposed into the following two parts:

1. 1.

   Projections of effective labor supply; and

2. 2.

   Projections of physical capital accumulation.

In step 3, we calculated the economic loss as the cumulative difference in projected annual GDP between these two scenarios for various discount rates.

In the counterfactual scenario where diabetes mellitus is eliminated, we assume that diabetes-related morbidity and mortality are fully averted, while the risks of morbidity and mortality from other causes remain unchanged. This assumption follows the GBD comparative risk assessment framework, allowing for consistent estimation across causes. However, it may overestimate the benefits of eliminating diabetes, particularly in older populations, due to unmodeled competing risks. This detailed model description follows our previous contributions, in which we applied the framework to estimate the economic burden of noncommunicable diseases in China, Japan and South Korea¹⁵, as well as in the United States and European countries^17,54, and the economic burden of noncommunicable diseases and other risk factors¹⁸.

Production function

Consider an economy in which time (t=mathrm{1,2},ldots ,infty) evolves discretely. Building upon the details in ref. ⁵⁵, we considered the following production function for this economy:

where ({Y}_{t}) is aggregate output; ({A}_{t}) is the technological level at time (t), which we assumed evolves exogenously; ({K}_{t}) is the physical capital stock (that is, machines, factory buildings, and so on); and ({H}_{t}) represents aggregate human capital. The parameter (alpha) is the elasticity of final output with respect to physical capital. The aggregate production function recognizes that output is not only produced with physical capital and ‘raw labor’ as in the framework discussed in ref. ⁵⁶, on which the original EPIC model is based⁵⁷, but with ‘effective labor’, of which health is a crucial determinant.

Physical capital evolves according to

where (delta) refers to the depreciation rate, ({s}_{t}) refers to the saving rate, ({rm{TC}}_{t}) refers to the costs of the ongoing treatment of diabetes mellitus and ({C}_{t}) refers to the amount of consumption. From the above Equation, it follows that the saving rate is defined as

Of note, aggregate output ({Y}_{t}) is used for the following three purposes: (1) to pay treatment costs ({rm{TC}}_{t}) (hospitalization, medication, and so on), (2) to consume the amount ({C}_{t}) and (3) to save.

Individuals of age group (a) are endowed with ({h}_{t}^{(a)}) units of human capital and supply ({{mathcal{l}}}_{t}^{(a)}) units of labor from the age of 15 up to their retirement at age (R), that is, for (ain [15,R]). Children younger than 15 years of age and retirees older than (R) do not work. R varies by country and could correspond to a high age (for example, some people aged above 80 years could also be working). In the theoretical derivations, R indicates the upper bound of the summation. In our simulations, we used labor projections data from the International Labour Organization, and positive values for the labor force exist for cohorts above the age of 65 years. Aggregate human capital in the production function (1) is then defined as the sum over the age-specific effective labor supply of each age group:

where ({n}_{t}^{a}) denotes the number of individuals in age group (a). Of note, aggregate human capital increases with the number of working-age individuals who live in the economy (that is, with a higher ({n}_{t}={sum }_{a=15}^{R}{n}_{t}^{(a)})), with individual human capital endowment (that is, with a higher ({h}_{t}^{(a)}) for at least one (a)), and with labor supply (that is, with a higher ({{mathcal{l}}}_{t}^{(a)}) for at least one (a)).

We followed ref. ⁵⁰ and constructed the average human capital of the cohort aged (a) according to an exponential function of education and work experience:

where ({eta }_{1}) is the semi-elasticity of human capital with respect to average years of education as given by (y{s}_{t}^{left(aright)}), and ({eta }_{2}) and ({eta }_{3}) are the semi-elasticities of human capital with respect to the experience of the workforce (left(a-y{s}_{t}^{left(aright)}-5right)) and the experience of the workforce squared ({left(a-y{s}_{t}^{left(aright)}-5right)}^{2}), respectively. Here we assumed a school entry age of 5 years throughout.

Impact of diabetes mellitus on labor supply

Following refs. ^15,17,18, the evolution of labor supply in the status quo scenario is given by

where ({sigma }_{t}^{left(aright)}) is the overall mortality rate of age group (a) in time (t). Mortality and morbidity reduce effective labor supply.

Let ({sigma }_{r,t}^{left(aright)}) denote the mortality rate of people in age group (a) due to diabetes mellitus, and let ({sigma }_{-r,t}^{left(aright)}) be the overall mortality rate due to the causes other than diabetes mellitus. Then we have

Mortality from diabetes mellitus reduces the labor supply by reducing the population ({n}_{t}^{left(aright)}) (through ({sigma }_{r,t}^{left(aright)})). In the counterfactual case, in which diabetes mellitus is eliminated from time (t=0) onward, the evolution of labor supply is defined similarly to the evolution of labor supply equation, but with a different overall mortality rate (({sigma }_{-r,t}^{left(aright)}) instead of ({sigma }_{t}^{left(aright)})). For simplicity, we assumed that the number of births is the same in both cases at each point in time (t).

In the counterfactual scenario, the size of the cohort aged (a) at time (t({bar{n}}_{t}^{(a)})) evolves according to

Following ref. ¹⁵, the loss of labor due to mortality accumulates over the years according to

The morbidity effect is captured by a reduction in the labor participation rate ({{mathcal{l}}}_{t}^{left(aright)}) because people with an illness typically reduce their labor supply, either by reducing their working hours or by leaving the workforce. Following ref. ¹⁵, the labor participation rate in the counterfactual scenario ({bar{{mathcal{l}}}}_{t}^{(a)}) can be calculated as

where ({xi }^{,left(aright)}) measures the size of the morbidity effect relative to the relevant mortality rate, and where ({p}^{tau }) is the probability that a patient died from diabetes mellitus before time (t).

Because the impact of morbidity is hard to estimate directly, we first defined

Next, we assumed that the following holds in any given year for each age group (a):

where ({mathrm{YLD}}^{left(aright)}) represents the years lived with diabetes mellitus and ({mathrm{YLL}}^{left(aright)}) represents the years of life lost due to diabetes mellitus. Of note, ({xi }^{,left(aright)}) can be calculated from the corresponding DALY data reported by the GBD study⁵⁸.

In sum, as a result of the elimination of diabetes mellitus, the ‘counterfactual scenario’ is associated with an increase in labor supply as compared with the status quo scenario. We approximated the change in labor supply (at time (t) for age group (a)) by

For the more general case of a partial reduction in the prevalence of diabetes mellitus by a factor (rho), we obtained the loss of labor for age group (a) at time (t) as

The details in ref. ¹⁵ showed the mathematical proof.

For the modeling of informal care labor, we simply subtract the labor loss associated with informal care (defined as a fraction of diabetes mellitus prevalence) from the effective labor supply.

Impact of diabetes mellitus on physical capital accumulation

Diabetes mellitus also impedes the accumulation of physical capital because savings finance part of the treatment costs. Following refs. ^15,17, physical capital accumulation in the counterfactual scenario can be written as

where an overbar indicates the counterfactual scenario and where (chi) is the fraction of the treatment cost that is diverted to savings. The counterfactual saving rate is thus defined by

For more details, see refs. ^15,17.

Because diabetes mellitus is assumed to be eliminated in the counterfactual scenario, the resources that were devoted to its treatment can now be used for savings or consumption. Of note, this creates an income effect that, in reality, could affect the division of households’ income between savings and consumption. For tractability, we assumed that aggregate investment consists of two parts in the counterfactual scenario, which are as follows: a fixed share ({{rm{s}}}_{t}) of total output and an additional part from ({rm{TC}}_{t}) that would otherwise have been used to pay to treat diabetes mellitus:

Similarly, for the case of a partial reduction in diabetes mellitus prevalence by (rho), we have

The intuition is that if diabetes mellitus were partially eliminated, the treatment cost that is diverted to savings should be added back proportionally.

Sensitivity analyses

We conducted several sensitivity analyses. First, we varied the mortality and morbidity rates. The baseline estimates were calculated with the mean mortality and morbidity data from GBD. In the sensitivity analyses, best-case and worst-case estimates were calculated based on the lower and upper bounds of GBD mortality and morbidity data. Table 1 presents the results of this sensitivity analysis in parentheses next to the baseline estimates. Second, we varied the discount rate. In the main analysis, we generated our estimates using a discount rate of 2%. We present estimates for each country by World Bank region and World Bank income group using discount rates of 0% in Supplementary Table 6 and 3% in Supplementary Table 7. Finally, we conducted sensitivity analyses by varying the weekly informal care hours from 0.285 to 8.3, with 4.0 as the median value (Supplementary Table 8).

Reporting summary

Further information on research design is available in the Nature Portfolio Reporting Summary linked to this article.

Osborne Clarke assisted ALER Milano (Azienda Lombarda di Edilizia Residenziale di Milano) in all phases of the project financing for the award of the energy performance contract (EPC) and for the energy redevelopment of a total of 152 properties intended for public housing, eligible for both the incentives recognised by the GSE and provided for by the so-called Conto Termico 3.0, and the NRRP measure ‘M7 Investment 17 Repower – Regulation (EU) 2023/435 of 27 February 2023’.

In particular, the Firm provided assistance throughout all stages of the initiative: initially in preparing a public notice for the receipt of project financing proposals, then in evaluating a total of 13 proposals received, as well as in the subsequent definition of mixed EPC and PPP contract schemes, and in the legal structuring of the subsequent tender procedures.

Osborne Clarke also advised in relation to the proceedings before the Milan Regional Administrative Court brought by an operator whose proposal was not considered worthy of consideration.

As part of the transaction, worth over €200 million, Osborne Clarke worked with its public law department, coordinated throughout by partner Giorgio Lezzi, assisted, with regard to the preparation of the public notice and assistance for the purposes of preliminary assessment, by senior associate Angelo Maria Quintieri, in relation to the assessment of the public utility of the project proposals and assistance in the preparation of the tender documents, by associate Federico Milani and trainee Francesco Antonio Maria Notti, and in the judicial phase before the Regional Administrative Court by senior associate Sabrina Maiello.

If you’re flying out of Austin in 2026, the list of places you’ll be able to reach nonstop is changing, and in many cases, the destinations are tilting in a more vacation-friendly direction.

New flights will make it easier to head straight to ski towns, beach cities and Midwest hubs, even as a handful of familiar nonstop options quietly fade away.

Add it all up, and the number of seats for sale is set to rise nearly 9% in the first three months of 2026 compared to the same period a year earlier, according to airport data.

Much of that change is being driven by Southwest Airlines, the dominant carrier at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport, which is preparing to offer unprecedented numbers of fights this summer.

Southwest announced this month that it will be launching a crew base in March at ABIA, allowing the Dallas-based carrier’s local employees to start and end their days in Austin. The city of Austin and the state of Texas are paying Southwest millions of dollars to go on a hiring spree, with some 2,000 new jobs expected.

“The benefits go to the traveling public,” airport CEO Ghizlane Badawi promised. She said the crew base will mean more nonstop Southwest flights and greater reliability, especially when it gets busy or if there’s bad weather.

Airport expansion throttles up

As a years-long project to increase ABIA’s capacity kicks into high gear, travelers can expect more construction at the airport. But they will also start to benefit as some of the big customer-facing projects come online in the first half of 2026.

Checkpoint 3, which has been under renovation for almost two years, is scheduled to reopen in early 2026 with more TSA screening lanes and and ticket counters.

An 80,000 square foot expansion at the west end of the Barbara Jordan Terminal is set to open in the spring with three additional gates and new amenities like a children’s play area and a place where pets can pee.

Those projects will create space the airport needs to close and demolish the South Terminal, where discount airlines Allegiant and Frontier operate.

After an intense legal fight, the city paid $88 million to evict the South Terminal’s private operator so the building could be razed to create space for new taxiways and a concourse with at least 20 gates, planned to open in the early 2030s.

Allegiant said it will move to the Barbara Jordan Terminal in February. Frontier did not respond to a request for comment, but an airport spokesperson confirmed the ultra-low-cost airline will move to the Barbara Jordan Terminal as well.

Behind the scenes, a $241 million upgrade of ABIA’s outbound baggage handling system was activated this month, ahead of schedule. The new system can process more than 4,000 bags per hour, more than double the previous volume. The city’s aviation department said this will decrease the potential for flight delays.

Air traffic controller shortage persists

Travelers at ABIA will still have to contend with a dire shortage of air traffic controllers in 2026. Even though the Federal Aviation Administration has sent more trainees to the Austin tower, the number of controllers remains about half the level recommended by staffing targets set jointly by the FAA and the union.

That has been more evident lately with an increase in ground delays, when flights to Austin that haven’t taken off yet are forced to wait at their home airports so overworked controllers at ABIA don’t get swamped.

With significant growth in flights planned in 2026 and no immediate end to the controller shortage in sight, those unexpected delays could continue to be an issue in the New Year.

So here’s a look at some of the nonstop flights coming, changing and going away, and what it means for Austin travelers planning trips in 2026.

Southwest Airlines

Southwest is on track to offer a record-breaking volume of nonstop flights from Austin. Maximum daily departures will rise from 109 in January to an unprecedented 132 between June and August, airport data shows. ABIA’s busiest carrier is starting service to these destinations:

• Hayden/Steamboat Springs, Colorado: Saturday-only seasonal service from March 7 to April 6
• Fort Myers, Florida: Saturday-only seasonal service from March 7 to April 6
• Palm Springs, California: Saturday and Sunday nonstop service during from March 7 to April 6. Then Saturday-only service from April 7 to June 3. This is will be the first year Southwest has flown nonstop from ABIA to Palm Springs International Airport.
• Pensacola, Florida: daily service except Tuesdays and Wednesdays from March 7 to April 6
• Cincinnati: New daily service from June 4 to Aug. 3.
• Seattle: New seasonal service returns June 4 to Aug. 3. Southwest hasn’t flown Austin to Seattle nonstop since 2018.
• Indianapolis: Frequency increasing over the summer to three flights daily.
• San Francisco: Frequency increasing over the summer to two flights a day Monday through Friday

Delta

The second biggest carrier at ABIA began new nonstop service in November to Denver and Miami. Delta started flying to Cancún, Mexico on Dec. 20, and the airline plans to add more nonstop flights in 2026.

• Columbus, Ohio: starting June 7
• Kansas City, Missouri: starting June 7
• Bozeman, Montana: Saturday-only service from June 13 to Sept. 5
• Kalispell, Montana: Saturday-only service from June 13 to Sept. 5
• Destin–Fort Walton Beach Airport, Florida: Saturday-only service from June 13 to Sept. 5
• San José del Cabo, Mexico: This nonstop service was supposed to end Jan. 5, but will continue through April 12
• Palm Springs, California: Saturday-only nonstop service started in November and will be increased to daily service on Dec. 20 through March 7. The flight will return to Saturday-only through April 25.
• Northwest Florida Beaches International Airport: Delta is decreasing daily nonstop service to this airport outside Panama City, Florida, to Saturday-only from Jan. 5 to March 8.
• Louisville: Service for the Kentucky Derby with one roundtrip flight on April 30 and another on May 3.

Frontier and Allegiant

The two carriers that now operate out of the low-cost South Terminal will have to start paying higher fees to the airport when they shift to the Barbara Jordan Terminal in early 2026. Ultimately, those costs get passed on to passengers.

Both airlines are planning to reduce their schedules in early 2026.

Frontier is flying nonstop to these 11 cities through Jan. 6:

• Atlanta
• Cincinnati
• Cleveland
• Chicago O’Hare
• Denver
• Las Vegas
• Miami
• Orlando, Florida
• Philadelphia
• Phoenix
• San Diego

From January through March 5, Frontier will suspend service to Cleveland, Cincinnati and Philadelphia.

Allegiant will fly to seven cities through Feb. 10:

• Asheville, North Carolina
• Cincinnati
• Des Moines, Iowa
• Grand Rapids, Michigan
• Provo, Utah
• Sarasota, Florida
• Knoxville, Tennessee

From Feb. 11 to May 13, Allegiant’s offerings will shrink to four destinations:

• Cincinnati
• Des Moines, Iowa
• Grand Rapids, Michigan
• Provo, Utah

American Airlines

In addition to its regular service, the third-largest airlines at ABIA is flying nonstop to Augusta Regional Airport on April 6, 11 and 14 for the Masters Tournament.

American is also offering a special event nonstop flight to Louisville for the Kentucky Derby with an outbound flight on April 30 and a return on May 3 aboard a 128-seat Airbus A319.

Lufthansa

Starting this month, Austin is one of the few U.S. cities where Lufthansa is offering its new Allegris service. For those who can afford it, the premium offering on select flights allows travelers to choose one of five high-end seat configurations.

Lufthansa will fly to Frankfurt on a Tuesday, Thursday, Sunday schedule for the winter season on a Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner. Starting March 29 and lasting through the summer, the nonstop service to Frankfurt is scheduled to run five times a week on the older and less snazzy Airbus A340-300.

Alaska Airlines

The number five airline at ABIA is stopping twice daily service to San Francisco. The last flight is on Jan. 6.

Alaska will increase nonstop service to San Diego from three to four times per day on Jan. 7.

Viva (formerly Viva Aerobus)

Viva had been planning to fly nonstop from Austin to Mexico City’s newest airport — Felipe Ángeles — starting in November. The low-cost airline had even started selling tickets.

But a U.S. Department of Transportation order in October canceled that route and 12 others between the U.S. and Ángeles Airport. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said it was retaliation for the Mexican government blocking expansion of U.S. flights into Mexico.

Rep. Monica De La Cruz, a Republican from South Texas, said the move is punishing American businesses. She has been urging a resolution to the dispute.

But it’s still unclear when Viva Aerobus flights from Austin to Felipe Ángeles International Airport might be allowed to take off.

Other airlines

British Airways is currently flying once daily to London Heathrow on an Airbus A350-1000 with 351 seats. On March 29, that will double to twice daily service.

Copa Airlines added a fifth weekly flight to Panama City, Panama, in December and January. The fifth weekly flight will resume again from April to August.

JetBlue began flying twice daily to Fort Lauderdale, Florida, on Nov. 20 aboard a 162-seat Airbus A320. That service will be reduced to once daily from Jan. 7 to Feb. 11.

December 29, 2025

A New Resource: AI Webinar Series

Building on these public resources, the IAEA designed a dedicated 12-part webinar series to equip medical physicists with the knowledge and skills needed to introduce imaging-based AI systems into clinical practice. Organized by the IAEA’s human health and technical cooperation programmes under a dedicated regional project on improving the quality and safety of radiology services through medical physics.

The online sessions take place every two weeks from October 2025 to April 2026. Experts from Germany, India, the Netherlands, and the United States of America are leading interactive presentations and live discussions on: 

• Introduction to AI: its historical background and terminology
• Roles and responsibilities of medical physicists in AI
• Basic and advanced statistical methods
• Ethical and regulatory considerations relevant to AI systems
• Machine learning models, training and validation
• Deep-learning architecture
• Data management
• Clinical implementation of imaging-based AI systems
• Diagnostic radiology procedures utilizing AI
• Imaging-based AI systems in radiotherapy
• Radiomics for medical physicists
• Medical physicists’ roles in the clinical validation of AI technologies in imaging

At the conclusion of the series, attendees are expected to promote the safe, efficient, ethical and responsible use of AI. 

“Participating in the IAEA AI webinar series has deepened my understanding of how medical physicists can lead the safe and effective integration of AI into clinical practice,” reflected Noramaliza Mohd Noor, associate professor and medical physicist at Universiti Putra Malaysia. “The sessions have broadened my perspective on the future of our field and strengthened my commitment to enhancing patient-centred care through innovation.”

Gold prices in Pakistan fell on Monday, in line with a major decline in the international market.

In the local market, the price of gold per tola dropped by Rs. 5,500, settling at Rs. 470,162, according to the All-Pakistan Gems and Jewellers Sarafa Association (APGJSA).

The price of 10 grams of gold also decreased, falling by Rs. 4,715 to Rs. 403,088.

This drop comes after a gain on Saturday, when gold prices had risen by Rs. 2,300 per tola to reach Rs. 475,662.

Internationally, gold prices declined by $55, bringing the rate down to $4,478 per ounce, including a $20 premium.

Silver prices also saw a decrease, with the rate per tola falling by Rs. 332 to Rs. 8,075.