CHENGDU, CHINA – OCTOBER 18: People walk past the Louis Vuitton store at Taikoo Li, a high-end shopping area that combines traditional Sichuan-style architecture with modern luxury retail, on October 18, 2025, in Chengdu, China.
Cheng Xin | Getty Images News | Getty Images
China’s slowdown worsened in October, dragged by soft consumer demand and a deepening property downturn, with the long holiday period further denting factory activity.
Fixed-asset investment, which includes real estate, contracted 1.7% for the first ten months of the year, steepening from a 0.5% decline in the January-to-September period, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed Friday. Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast a 0.8% drop.
The last time China recorded a contraction in fixed-asset investment was in 2020 during the pandemic, according to data going back to 1992 from Wind Information, a private database focused on the country.
Industrial output expanded 4.9% in October, a slowdown from a 6.5% rise in the prior month, missing expectations for a 5.5% jump.
China’s manufacturing activity contracted more than expected in October, shrinking to the lowest level in six months, as a weeklong holiday, which stretched from Oct. 1 to Oct. 8, shuttered most factories across the country.
Retail sales climbed 2.9% in October from a year earlier, topping expectations for a 2.8% growth in a Reuters poll, but softening from a 3% year-on-year rise in September.
The survey-based urban unemployment rate ticked down to 5.1% last month from 5.2% in September.
The sharp drop in fixed-asset investment was largely dragged down by lackluster investment in the property sector and infrastructure, according to Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management.
Consumer prices rose 0.2% from a year earlier in October, the strongest inflation reading since January this year and the first positive growth since June, according to LSEG data.
The core CPI, which strips out food and energy, rose 1.2% from a year earlier, the highest since February 2024, according to data provider Wind Information.
China’s exports in October unexpectedly contracted for the first time in nearly two years amid a deepening slump in shipments to the U.S. as tensions with Washington over trade escalated before a deal was reached at the month’s end.
U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping agreed last month to trim their tit-for-tat tariffs and suspend a raft of restrictive measures for one year.
Zhang, however, expects Chinese policymakers to refrain from unveiling further stimulus measures for the remainder of this year, as the economy appears to remain on track to achieve its 5% growth target.
China’s economic growth slowed to 4.8% in the third quarter, following expansions of 5.2% in the second quarter and 5.4% in the first quarter.
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Good morning. The Indian government has classified the Delhi car explosion as a “terror incident perpetrated by anti-national forces”. The death toll from Monday’s explosion is now 13, according to local media. Tensions in the region are high, with Pakistan on Tuesday accusing India of pursuing “state terrorism” after a suicide car bombing killed at least 12 people outside a judicial complex in its capital Islamabad. India has denied any involvement.
Meanwhile, the talk is that a trade deal with the US will be announced soon. Donald Trump, who is now fighting to control his Maga base after the revelations in the Epstein emails, has indicated this a couple of times this week too. In fact the US president defended the use of H1B visas on Wednesday, saying the US “needs certain talents”. Is the cycle turning?
Results of the polls in Bihar will be out today, and exit polls seem to strongly suggest a third term for Nitish Kumar.
Expense report
It’s that time of the year again, when we hear the first whispers of a phrase that gets India’s businesses and consumers excited: the Union budget. This week, finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman kicked off preparations for next year’s fiscal event with a consultation with leading economists. And that meeting brought forth that other term that should incite excitement, but has of late been rather contentious — capital expenditure.
Experts from private banks and other financial institutions used the meeting with Sitharaman to push for an increase in government capex, which they think will generate employment and improve general economic wellbeing. Government capex is expected to stay around 5 per cent of GDP this fiscal year, Emkay Research estimates, continuing the marginally downward trajectory in the past two years. In her budget in February this year, Sitharaman had increased the allocation of government capex by 10 per cent from last year, earmarking $129bn for these projects.
It is ironic that it is now the private sector that is urging the government to increase spending. In the past few years the finance ministry has been the one demanding that the private sector increase its capex, with Sitharaman using several public appearances to scold industry for this lapse. But the results have been a mixed bag. A significant area of expansion of private capital this year was expected to be in manufacturing for exports, specifically as a “China plus one” strategy for global companies to de-risk their supply chains. But this approach is no longer viable after Trump’s 50 per cent tariffs on India. Even if a deal is announced soon, the damage to investor confidence will take a while to repair.
However, there is some good news on private capex being invested in projects for the domestic market. A report from the Reserve Bank of India projects this to grow by 22 per cent this fiscal year, on the back of the recent interest rate cut and improving economic conditions. Much of this money is being invested in incremental boosts to capacity in renewable energy, roads and other projects.
Capex is one of the most significant factors for India’s economic health. Public capex is especially crucial, with every dollar spent having a multiplier effect of 2.4 to 2.6 times on the economy. The question now is whether private capex will step in so that the government can ease its spending. This week’s meeting suggests it is unlikely. Even if private investment does go up, it is growing from a low base; the government should not take it as a signal that it can take its foot off the pedal early.
Do you think there is enough private capital expenditure now? Hit reply or email me at indiabrief@ft.com
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Indian roads are so dangerous that they account for the highest number of accident-related fatalities in the world. According to data shared by Nitin Gadkari, the minister in charge of road transport and highways, 480,000 accidents took place on Indian roads in 2024, killing 172,000 people. More than 35,000 of these fatalities were pedestrians, while 54,000 deaths were due to lack of helmets and 16,000 were people not wearing seatbelts. Road accidents are the single largest killer of young men aged between 15 and 29, accounting for 20 per cent of all deaths for that age group.
These are grim statistics. What is worse is that there does not seem to be a solution in sight. The minister himself remarked that some of this is because of the poor construction of roads, saying hundreds of deaths were caused because of civil engineering mistakes and pot holes, before adding that he was only responsible for building highways.
The poor quality of roads is also a serious economic problem. India is losing 3 per cent of GDP annually through road accidents, according to Gadkari, although I am not sure how he arrived at this number. Nevertheless, it is safe to say that a poorly designed network of roads riddled with bottlenecks would multiply commute time and result in millions of man-hours lost. During the monsoons, streets are flooded in most Indian cities. Potholed roads are so common across all of India that some of them have now become internet memes.
This administration takes incredible pride in how it has expanded road connectivity across the country. Some 55,000 kilometres of new national highways have been built in the past 11 years, according to government data. But just building roads is not enough — attention has to be paid to how they are engineered and subsequently maintained. If India’s ambition is to be a global economic powerhouse, it has to have high-quality infrastructure as well as valuing human lives. Having the most dangerous road network in the world is a terrible reputation. While it is great that the minister is willing to talk about this in public, his office should also be more proactive in ensuring this is rectified quickly.
What has been your experience of Indian roads?Hit reply or email me at indiabrief@ft.com
Go figure
India’s inflation fell to a record low in October. Here is a look at how the consumer price index performed.
Read, hear, watch
I am making my way through Granta’s autumn edition that is dedicated to India. (Disclosure — the publishers sent me a copy). I really enjoyed the opening piece — a short story by the Kannada writer Vivek Shanbhag (of Ghachar Ghochar fame) translated by Srinath Perur. I am about halfway through the book, and the other pieces have not really blown me away so far.
It’s been a busy couple of weeks in London, but I have managed to watch 10 minutes of Platonic on Apple TV every night. I didn’t care for it much in the beginning, but warmed up to it after the third episode. (I could totally identify with the situation, since I spend quite a bit of time getting up to no good with my platonic best friend too.)
Buzzer round
Which organisation is going to award a “peace prize” next month in Washington? Hint — its main area of expertise in peace negotiations involves yellow and red cards.
Send your answer to indiabrief@ft.com and check Tuesday’s newsletter to see if you were the first one to get it right.
Your view
On Tuesday, I wrote about the government’s desire to create “big banks”, potentially through more mergers and foreign investment. India Brief reader Ajay Doshi had this to say:
“Maybe the first step would be for the state to not get involved in commercial banks. They should privatise completely and then let the market work out what is best for its consumers, whoever and wherever they are. Regulation is necessary, but there should be absolutely no government interference. No favours either.”
(Edited for length and clarity)
Quick answer
On Tuesday we asked if you think India will be able to fix the air pollution problem. Here are the results. Seventy per cent of you don’t think it will. (Also, linking results to last week’s poll on Bihar elections here, since results will be out today.)
Thank you for reading. India Business Briefing is edited by Tee Zhuo. Please send feedback, suggestions (and gossip) to indiabrief@ft.com.
Tradeweb and Chainlink recently announced a collaboration to publish the Tradeweb FTSE U.S. Treasury Benchmark Closing Prices on-chain via DataLink, aiming to enhance transparency and accessibility in U.S. Treasury markets by leveraging blockchain technology for real-time, reliable benchmark pricing data.
This move may accelerate the integration of digital market infrastructure for institutions seeking trusted, continually available Treasury pricing and open the door for tokenized financial products and expanded on-chain market participation.
We’ll explore how delivering institutional-grade U.S. Treasury data on-chain may influence Tradeweb’s digital asset growth and investment outlook.
Trump’s oil boom is here – pipelines are primed to profit. Discover the 22 US stocks riding the wave.
To be a shareholder in Tradeweb Markets, you need to believe in the ongoing transition of fixed income markets from manual and voice-based to electronic and increasingly digital trading. The recent partnership with Chainlink advances digital infrastructure for U.S. Treasury data, but does not materially alter the biggest short-term catalyst, which remains increasing electronic trading adoption, or the biggest near-term risk, ongoing reliance on voice trading for complex trades during volatile periods.
Of the recent announcements, Tradeweb’s launch of dealer algorithmic execution capabilities for U.S. Treasuries stands out as most relevant. Together with the Chainlink collaboration, this further supports efforts to enhance automation and real-time data, aligning directly with the catalyst of growing electronic and automated trading volumes in core markets.
However, amid these advances, investors should be aware that if voice trading remains entrenched during key market events, it could…
Read the full narrative on Tradeweb Markets (it’s free!)
Tradeweb Markets’ narrative projects $2.6 billion in revenue and $917.7 million in earnings by 2028. This requires 10.6% yearly revenue growth and a $359.9 million earnings increase from current earnings of $557.8 million.
Uncover how Tradeweb Markets’ forecasts yield a $131.87 fair value, a 20% upside to its current price.
TW Community Fair Values as at Nov 2025
Three Simply Wall St Community members provided fair value estimates for Tradeweb ranging from US$61.66 to US$556.37 per share. While opinions are split, the ongoing move toward market electronification is driving strong debate about longer-term revenue growth.
Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Tradeweb Markets – why the stock might be worth 44% less than the current price!
Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes – extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.
A great starting point for your Tradeweb Markets research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
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Our top stock finds are flying under the radar-for now. Get in early:
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include TW.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
GRAIL (GRAL) just posted its third-quarter earnings, highlighting a jump in Galleri test volume and revenue. The announcement also included a partnership with Samsung, aimed at expanding into key Asian markets.
See our latest analysis for GRAIL.
After a string of upbeat quarterly results, partnerships, and a major capital infusion, GRAIL’s momentum has translated directly into the stock’s performance with a remarkable 156.6% share price return over the past 90 days and a 426.3% total shareholder return over the last year. Both recent and longer-term moves suggest investor optimism is building as commercial traction and validation grow.
If you’re curious what other companies are capturing investors’ attention in healthcare, consider discovering See the full list for free.
The recent rally has left many investors wondering: is GRAIL still undervalued given its growth trajectory, or has the current share price already baked in all the future gains?
GRAIL’s most widely followed fair value estimate stands at $61.50, which is significantly below the last close of $83.20. This notable gap highlights diverging expectations and sets up a pivotal discussion around growth, valuation, and future profitability.
Ongoing positive clinical trial results, including substantially higher cancer detection and positive predictive value with consistent specificity for Galleri in population-scale studies, are setting the stage for robust FDA approval and broad payer reimbursement, which could unlock significant new revenue streams and accelerate top-line growth.
Read the complete narrative.
What big bets are hiding inside this valuation call? The fair value hangs on ambitious revenue forecasts, eye-catching profit margin shifts, and hope of regulatory green lights. Curious just how bold the assumptions are? Find out what’s driving this price and whether the market has run ahead of the numbers.
Result: Fair Value of $61.50 (OVERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, persistent high losses and dependence on regulatory milestones remain key risks. These factors could quickly dampen optimism if progress falters.
Find out about the key risks to this GRAIL narrative.
If you see the story differently or want to do some digging on your own, you can put together your own take in under three minutes. Do it your way
A great starting point for your GRAIL research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
Why limit your opportunities to just one company? Keep your edge sharp, spot potential early, and push your portfolio further with exceptional stocks found through Simply Wall Street’s unique screeners.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include GRAL.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
(Bloomberg) — Stocks extended losses as uncertainty over Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts and stretched technology valuations weighed on sentiment, prompting investors to retreat from riskier corners of the market.
Asian shares fell 1.2% — with technology companies such as SK Hynix Inc. leading the losses — following the retreat in Wall Street benchmarks Thursday. Even so, MSCI’s gauge of global stocks is set for a fourth gain in five weeks. Bitcoin traded below $100,000 and is down more than 20% since early October. Oil jumped as traders weighed risks to Russian flows from US sanctions, which countered a slew of signs that the market faces a glut.
Treasuries and a gauge of the dollar steadied as investors parsed commentary from Fed officials that cast doubt over a December rate cut. Also, the October jobs report will be released without a reading of the unemployment rate.
Attention was also on the pound Friday, which fell after the Financial Times said UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves was ditching a planned income tax rise.
The moves dealt a fresh blow to risk sentiment, highlighted by heavy selling in high-flying tech giants amid mounting valuation concerns. Beneath the surface, some investors pointed to a rotation into more defensive sectors. With optimism over the US government’s reopening largely priced in, traders are now focusing on the upcoming wave of economic data, as the chances of a December Fed rate cut slip below 50%.
“Markets appear to be spooked to a large extent by AI froth fears,” said Vishnu Varathan, head of macro research for Asia ex-Japan at Mizuho Bank. “A Fed that is more likely to bide its time than race against it, makes it a lot less conducive for the tech rout, which typically tends to be more sensitive to Fed easing.”
Technology stocks have been under pressure recently as investors balanced optimism over technological advances with concerns over stretched artificial intelligence valuations. Wall Street chief executives have also adopted a more cautious tone recently, as the market’s gains since April’s slump have become increasingly concentrated in a handful of stocks, prompting some investors to warn of “froth” in the AI sector.
With President Donald Trump signing the legislation to end the longest shutdown in US history, investor attention is now turning to the slew of economic data that’s due to flow out. Even so, the October jobs report will skip the unemployment rate as the household survey wasn’t conducted, US top economic adviser Kevin Hassett told Fox News.
Some traders are also concerned that the omission of key may bolster arguments for Fed officials to stand pat. Currently, traders are pricing in about an even chance that the Fed will hold or cut rates in December.
Chair Jerome Powell said last month that a reduction is “not a foregone conclusion,” with the decision to be premised on incoming information.
In separate statements, Fed Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem said officials should move cautiously on rates with inflation running above target, while Cleveland counterpart Beth Hammack noted policy should remain “somewhat restrictive.” Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said he didn’t support the last cut and is undecided about December.
Elsewhere, Trump is readying substantial tariff cuts designed to address high food prices and a series of new trade deals as he seeks to address voter concerns over the cost of goods.
Corporate News:
Verizon Communications Inc. is discussing plans to announce job cuts next week that could downsize the company by as much as 20%. A wave of voluntary and early retirement programs in Japan is on track to hit a four-year high, as companies from Panasonic Holdings Corp. to Japan Display Inc. try to balance an aging workforce with the need to boost competitiveness. Japan Airlines Co. has sought proposals from manufacturers for up to 70 regional and turboprop aircraft. Tencent Holdings Ltd. posted a faster-than-anticipated 15% rise in revenue. Separately, it struck a deal with Apple Inc. that will see the iPhone maker handle payments and take a 15% cut of purchases in WeChat mini games and apps, resolving a high-profile dispute. Kioxia Holdings Corp. shares were set to fall by their daily limit after the NAND memory maker’s current-quarter outlook missed expectations elevated by bullish comments from bigger rivals. Singapore Air shares fell after the carrier’s second-quarter net income slumped 82%. Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
S&P 500 futures rose 0.1% as of 10:55 a.m. Tokyo time Japan’s Topix fell 0.8% Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 1.4% Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 1.1% The Shanghai Composite fell 0.1% Euro Stoxx 50 futures fell 0.3% Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed The euro was little changed at $1.1635 The Japanese yen was little changed at 154.47 per dollar The offshore yuan was little changed at 7.0926 per dollar Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin rose 0.4% to $99,194.18 Ether rose 0.8% to $3,204 Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.12% Japan’s 10-year yield was little changed at 1.695% Australia’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 4.45% Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude rose 3.2% to $60.58 a barrel Spot gold rose 0.5% to $4,192.97 an ounce This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Winnie Hsu and Richard Henderson.
The logo of SoftBank is displayed at a company shop in Tokyo, Japan January 28, 2025.
Issei Kato | Reuters
Shares of SoftBank Group plunged over 8% on Friday, marking its third straight day of selloff after the Japanese giant said it had sold its entire stake in U.S. chip giant Nvidia for $5.83 billion.
SoftBank disclosed in its latest earnings that it offloaded 32.1 million Nvidia shares in October and scaled back its T-Mobile stake, bringing in $9.17 billion.
Although the Nvidia sale surprised some investors, it isn’t the first time SoftBank has exited the U.S. chip giant. Its Vision Fund had accumulated roughly $4 billion worth of Nvidia shares in 2017 before selling out entirely in early 2019.
Even so, SoftBank continues to have business ties to Nvidia. The Tokyo-based company is involved in a number of AI ventures that use Nvidia’s technology, including the $500 billion Stargate project for data centers in the U.S.
Several other tech stocks in the region also declined. Semiconductor testing equipment maker Advantest and Tokyo Electron, a chip production equipment maker, fell by over 3% and 4% respectively.
Overnight in the U.S., technology giants came away battered. Nvidia and Broadcom notably declined 3.6% and 4.3%, respectively, while Google parent Alphabet fell 2.8%.
Tesla announced on Thursday it is recalling about 10,500 units of its Powerwall 2 home battery power systems in the US for fire and burn hazards after receiving 22 reports of overheating.
The US Consumer Product Safety Commission said the recall covers systems that “may fail and overheat”, raising the risk of serious injury or death, though no injuries have been reported.
The Powerwall 2 is a residential energy-storage unit that integrates with solar-panel systems, storing electricity for self-consumption, shifting usage to lower-cost periods and providing backup in grid outages.
The defect stems from certain lithium-ion battery cells that may overheat under certain conditions, smoke or ignite. In a few cases the defect has caused property damage, according to the recall notice.
Tesla said it is remotely limiting the charge on affected units to minimize risk while it arranges free replacements for customers.
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The recall draws attention to Tesla’s battery-cell suppliers and comes as its energy-storage business plays a growing role in the company’s expansion beyond electric vehicles.
