Category: 3. Business

OPEC+ has agreed in principle on another bumper oil production increase for September, according to a delegate, completing the revival of a halted supply tranche as the group moves to reclaim global market share. 

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‘No easy substitute’

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KARACHI: Lucky Core Industries Limited (the ‘Company’) in the meeting of the Board of Directors announced its financial results for the year ended June 30, 2025.

Financial Highlights:

• On a consolidated basis (including the result of the Company’s subsidiary Lucky Core PowerGen Limited), the Company reported a Net Turnover of PKR 119,941 million for the year under review, representing a one percent decline compared to the same period last year (SPLY).

• The consolidated Operating Result stood at PKR 18,031 million, which is higher by five percent in comparison to the SPLY.

• On a consolidated basis, the Profit After Tax (PAT) for the year under review at PKR 11,757 million and Earning Per Share (EPS) attributable to the owners of the holding company at PKR 25.46* are both five percent higher than the SPLY.

• On a standalone basis, the PAT and EPS for the year under review at PKR 11,638 million and PKR 25.20* per share respectively, both are four percent higher than the SPLY.

EPS has been restated to reflect the subdivision of the face value of the ordinary shares of the Company from PKR 10/- per share to PKR 02/- per share. The regulatory formalities to give effect to the stock split were completed after the close of the financial year, on July 19, 2025.

The Board of Directors has recommended a Final Cash Dividend in respect of the financial year ended June 30, 2025, at a rate of 310% (i.e. PKR 6.20/- per share of PKR 2/- each). This is in addition to the 340% Interim Cash Dividend (i.e. PKR 34/- per share of PKR 10/-) already paid (prior to the stock split).

Following the announcements of results, LCI’s Chief Executive Mr. AsifJooma said, “In a year marked by economic transition and evolving industry dynamics, macro indicators showed early signs of stability. However, the operating environment remained challenging with subdued demand weighing on key sectors, particularly in the second half of the year.

Against this backdrop, Lucky Core Industries delivered a resilient performance with steady growth in profitability, reflecting the strength of its diversified portfolio, cost discipline, and operational excellence. As we look ahead, we remain guided by our shared purpose to enrich lives, anchored in collaboration, resilience, and the strength of working together.”

Copyright Business Recorder, 2025

KARACHI: The Acting President of the Federation of Pakistan Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FPCCI), Zaki Aijaz said that keeping the interest rate at 11% and not reducing electricity prices has worsened the economic situation.

He urged the government to bring the interest rate into single digits without waiting for the new monetary policy, in order to revive the economy.

Addressing press conference, he declared the country’s economy to be “dead”. He stated that due to the government’s measures, the economy is unable to revive and is currently in a dead state. He further stated that after successful negotiations between the government and the business community official notifications are expected to start being issued by Monday.

Zaki Aijaz claimed that the government has accepted their demands regarding Section 37AA, the two-lakh cash deposit limit, and digital invoicing. He said that Section 37AA was a major demand of the business community, and FBR has already issued a notification on it.

As per the notification, a five-member committee has been formed. Regarding cash deposits over PKR 200,000, he explained that there will be no tax on such transactions if they are made through sales tax registered accounts and are properly invoiced. He also informed that the government has given time from September to December 2025 for the implementation of digital invoicing.

Zaki Aijaz further revealed that the Karachi Chamber of Commerce had assured the government during negotiations that there would be no strike, but despite issuing a press release to that effect, they later called for a strike independently.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2025

LAHORE: The local cotton market on Saturday remained steady and the trading volume remained satisfactory.

Cotton Analyst Naseem Usman told Business Recorder that the the rate of new cotton in Sindh is in between Rs 15,900 to Rs 16,200 per maund and the rate of cotton in Punjab is in between Rs 16,000 to Rs 16,300 per maund.

The rate of Phutti in Punjab is in between Rs 6,600 to Rs 7,200 per 40 kg and the rate of Phutti in Sindh is in between Rs 6,200 to Rs 7,000 per 40 kg. The rate of cotton in Balochistan is in between Rs 16,000 to Rs 16,100 per maund. The rate of Phutti in Balochistan is in between Rs 6,300 to Rs 7,000 per maund.

3600 bales of Tando Adam were sold in between Rs 15,900 to Rs 16,300 per maund, 1200 bales of Shahdad Pur were sold in between Rs 16,000 to Rs 16,300 per maund, 800 bales of Mir Pur Khas were sold in between Rs 16,000 to Rs 16,300 per maund, 2600 bales of Sanghar were sold in between Rs 16,000 to Rs 16,300 per maund, 400 bales of Hala were sold at Rs 16,300 per maund, 600 bales of Hyderabad, 400 bales of Kotri were sold at Rs 16,300 per maund, 400 bales of Jam Sahib were sold at Rs 16,000 to Rs 16,100 per maund, 400 bales of Khanewal were sold in between Rs 16,000 to Rs 16,300 per maund, 600 bales of Burewala were sold in between Rs 16,200 to Rs 16,300 per maund, 200 bales of Dera Ghazi Khan, 200 bales of Pir Mehal, 200 bales of Murid Wals were sold at Rs 16,100 per maund, 200 bales of Chichawatni, 200 bales of Mian Channu were sold at Rs 16 200 per maund.

The Spot Rate remained unchanged at Rs 16,200 per maund. Polyester Fiber was available at Rs 330 per kg.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2025

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Why Interest in Collagen Supplement Is Surging in 2025

Collagen supplements have exploded across TikTok, Google search, and wellness podcasts in 2025 — driven by rising demand for skin-plumping nutrients, joint resilience, and visible glow-up routines that feel both natural and effective. Monthly search volume for “collagen supplement” has surged past 400,000 in the U.S. alone, fueled by Gen Z and Millennial audiences looking for non-invasive ways to support aging, mobility, and beauty from within.

On TikTok, creators are documenting 30-day collagen challenges, while Reddit users are compiling ingredient spreadsheets comparing marine peptides, hydrolyzed formulas, and absorption-enhancing stacks. The term “collagen routine” now appears in skincare, gut health, and even fitness hashtags, revealing how mainstream this once-niche supplement category has become.

What makes 2025 different? Consumers are no longer just buying products based on claims — they’re researching clinical studies, comparing formulations, and tracking their personal results over 3-, 6-, and 12-month use periods. That’s why long-term, habit-forming delivery formats like collagen gummies are growing rapidly compared to powders or pills.

The shift is also linked to what trend analysts call “beauty rationalism” — the belief that if your body can rebuild its own structures from the inside, you’ll age better naturally. And in that framework, collagen isn’t hype — it’s a foundational building block.

Collagen Supplement’s Ingredient-First Response to These Trends

As public demand for long-term wellness routines grows, a new generation of supplement users is prioritizing clean sourcing, formulation transparency, and ingredient synergy. Pilly Labs Collagen Gummies meet that demand head-on — not through hype or aggressive marketing, but through an ingredient-first design philosophy that aligns with the modern consumer’s standards for internal beauty support.

At the core of the formula is hydrolyzed marine collagen — a highly bioavailable peptide source derived from wild-caught fish like tilapia and cod. Marine collagen is frequently explored in collagen research circles for its smaller molecular weight, which may aid digestion and uptake compared to bovine or porcine sources. Pilly Labs chose this collagen type specifically for its solubility, sustainability, and wide acceptance in clean-label beauty stacks.

But collagen alone isn’t enough. That’s why the formula incorporates supportive nutrients like Vitamin C (ascorbic acid), Biotin (D-Biotin), Zinc (from citrate), and Vitamin E — each frequently discussed for their role in structural skin protein formation, hair integrity, and cellular repair. These additions position the formula within the broader trend of “co-factor supported supplementation,” a movement where each ingredient amplifies the others through intelligent synergy.

The delivery format itself also plays a key role. Unlike messy powders or oversized capsules, Pilly Labs uses a fruit-flavored gummy that’s easy to take daily — a decision made to improve user compliance over the full 90-day to 6-month collagen renewal cycle. This convenience-forward format is backed by a growing body of user behavior data showing that daily habit consistency is a major predictor of visible results.

Finally, the formula avoids additives that many wellness-savvy buyers now actively exclude. Pilly Labs Collagen Gummies are gluten-free, non-GMO, antibiotic-free, and made without artificial sweeteners or dyes. Even the coloring is derived from natural purple carrot concentrate — another nod to the brand’s clean beauty alignment.

Curious how marine collagen, Biotin, and Vitamin C work together for long-term beauty support?
See the Full Breakdown of Pilly Labs Collagen Gummies Here

Ingredient Spotlight – What’s Inside the Formula

Understanding what’s inside a collagen supplement is just as important as knowing why to take one. Pilly Labs Collagen Gummies were formulated with a clear goal: to reflect the most talked-about, synergistic nutrients in the world of beauty-from-within, without relying on synthetic additives or filler ingredients.

The core of the formula is hydrolyzed collagen peptides — marine-derived proteins that are frequently associated with skin elasticity, hair structure, and joint cushioning in wellness routines. Unlike raw collagen, hydrolyzed peptides are smaller in molecular weight, which is why they are often explored for improved absorption in digestive and skin health regimens.

To enhance this collagen foundation, Pilly Labs includes Vitamin C (Ascorbic Acid) — a well-known antioxidant that is commonly referenced in research on collagen synthesis. Vitamin C helps support the body’s natural process of turning collagen peptides into usable structural proteins, making it one of the most essential co-nutrients in any beauty formula.

Also featured is Biotin (D-Biotin) — a B-complex vitamin frequently discussed in hair, skin, and nail support communities. Biotin plays a role in keratin production and is a popular inclusion in wellness stacks focused on hair thickness and nail strength.

The formula also provides Zinc (from Zinc Citrate) — a trace mineral that has been explored for its relevance to tissue repair and barrier function. In holistic supplementation circles, zinc is often combined with collagen to support overall skin integrity.

Vitamin E (as DL-Alpha-Tocopheryl Acetate) rounds out the antioxidant support, helping protect cells from oxidative stress — a common factor in visible aging and structural protein breakdown.

Other supportive elements include Glycine (a primary amino acid in collagen itself), natural fruit-based sweeteners like purple carrot juice concentrate, and a plant-based gummy matrix using pectin and coconut oil instead of gelatin or synthetic binders.

By combining these elements into a single, clean-label delivery system, Pilly Labs positions its collagen supplement at the intersection of science-backed structure and modern ingredient transparency — key factors in today’s high-trust wellness economy.

What Reddit, Podcasts & TikTok Creators Are Saying

In 2025, social platforms like TikTok, Reddit, and Spotify-hosted wellness podcasts have become central hubs for everyday users to explore supplements, routines, and health experiments. Among them, collagen supplementation — especially in gummy form — continues to trend as one of the most discussed daily rituals in beauty and longevity communities.

On TikTok, creators are showcasing their 30-, 60-, and 90-day glow-up challenges using collagen, often in “before and after” style videos documenting changes in skin texture, hair bounce, and morning mobility. Hashtags like #collagengummies, #marinecollagen, and #skinglowup2025 are attracting millions of views, with users comparing brands based on ingredient transparency and how easy the format is to stick with.

Reddit threads across r/Supplements, r/SkincareAddiction, and r/Healthygamergg have seen growing curiosity around how marine collagen differs from bovine-based formulas, whether gummies are as effective as powders, and what real users are experiencing after three months of daily use. The tone is rarely prescriptive — instead, it’s marked by personal testing, ingredient breakdowns, and crowdsourced feedback loops.

Meanwhile, in the podcast space, wellness influencers and holistic nutritionists are dedicating full episodes to “collagen stacking,” where listeners explore how nutrients like Biotin and Vitamin C work in synergy with peptides. Marine collagen often gets attention for its sustainability angle and smaller molecular structure, while gummies continue to be praised for compliance and taste.

Across all platforms, the most common thread is not hype — it’s habit. Content creators consistently focus on what’s easy to maintain over months, not just what works for a few days. That’s part of why products like Pilly Labs Collagen Gummies — with their clean label, taste-first design, and non-disruptive format — fit into the routines people are already building around skincare, nutrition, and long-term vitality.

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Who Might Be Drawn to This Type of Supplementation in 2025

The rise of collagen supplementation in 2025 is being driven not by any single demographic, but by a wide spectrum of lifestyle mindsets — each with its own reasons for embracing daily nutrient routines. Pilly Labs Collagen Gummies are not positioned for one type of consumer, but rather align with the habits, values, and routines of individuals seeking long-term, structural wellness support.

Biohackers and longevity-focused early adopters are often drawn to marine collagen because of its inclusion in “stacked” wellness protocols. These consumers are constantly researching ingredients that support cellular health, structural proteins, and graceful aging — and they tend to prefer formats that are easy to integrate into repeatable daily cycles.

Skincare-first consumers — particularly those building out multi-step regimens — are turning to internal supplements like collagen to complement their topical routines. For these users, the appeal lies in enhancing skin texture, bounce, and hydration by supporting deeper structural layers over time. Consistency is everything, which is why gummy delivery is favored for ease and habit formation.

Wellness lifestyle seekers, often in their 30s to 50s, are focused on maintaining energy, appearance, and movement without introducing drastic changes to their routines. These individuals tend to favor non-invasive solutions — ones that feel like a natural part of their morning or evening ritual, not a medical intervention.

Active adults and fitness-conscious individuals are another growing segment. These users explore collagen supplementation as part of their joint-support strategy, especially if they’re already following clean eating and workout protocols that emphasize recovery and longevity.

Lastly, first-time supplement users looking for a gentle introduction to functional beauty routines often choose gummies as a low-friction entry point. The flavor, format, and simplified dosing make collagen supplementation feel more like self-care than medicine — which increases the likelihood of long-term habit adoption.

In each case, it’s not just about what a supplement does — it’s about how easily it fits into a lifestyle built around sustainability, wellness, and proactive aging.

Spiritual Optimization & Collagen Curiosity – 2025 Market Reflections

The wellness industry in 2025 is evolving beyond traditional health categories. As consumers become more self-aware and future-oriented, a new area of interest is emerging — often described as “spiritual optimization” or “conscious wellness.” While still rooted in physical health, this movement explores how daily rituals contribute to emotional clarity, balance, and long-term vitality.

Within this context, collagen supplementation has quietly entered the conversation — not as a spiritual tool, but as part of a broader desire for alignment between internal health and external presence. Individuals seeking routines that support calm, glow, and groundedness often turn to products that feel intentional, clean, and self-honoring.

Pilly Labs Collagen Gummies are not marketed as spiritual products, but their design reflects many of the values embraced by this consumer segment: natural sourcing, simplicity, and ease of integration into meaningful rituals. Whether it’s part of a morning meditation, a skincare wind-down, or a 6AM cold plunge routine, the daily gummy becomes a tactile anchor for self-investment — a micro-commitment to long-term care.

This rising interest in “functional clarity” — where beauty, mood, and longevity intersect — is fueling growth in clean-label, habit-focused supplements that avoid synthetic compounds or hard-sell marketing. Collagen is increasingly seen not just as a cosmetic support, but as part of a lifestyle rooted in maintenance, not repair.

Importantly, this reflection is not tied to any belief system or metaphysical claim. Instead, it mirrors a cultural shift toward ritualizing wellness, where collagen fits naturally alongside journaling, hydration tracking, and screen-time reduction. Consumers want support that’s subtle, structural, and sustainable — not flashy or overstated.

Learn More About Pilly Labs’ Marine Collagen Approach

The Public Debate Around Collagen – Signals, Skepticism, and Saturation

As collagen continues to gain traction in the wellness and beauty space, so too has public discourse evolved. In 2025, the conversation around collagen supplementation isn’t just about benefits — it’s also about evidence, overexposure, and what counts as meaningful results. Pilly Labs Collagen Gummies enter this landscape at a moment when consumers are asking better questions and expecting more transparency.

Positive Signals:
Some view the widespread adoption of collagen as a sign that consumers are becoming more proactive about aging, structure, and long-term wellness. This group sees collagen not as a magic bullet, but as a consistent, foundational element of functional health — the same way protein or hydration has become essential to daily maintenance. Supporters often highlight the importance of delivery format, ingredient sourcing, and duration of use when evaluating results, with many leaning toward marine collagen due to its bioavailability and sustainability profile.

Skeptical Voices:
Others raise valid concerns about whether collagen supplementation lives up to its growing list of perceived benefits. Common points of contention include whether externally sourced collagen can significantly impact internal regeneration, whether brands are overstating cosmetic outcomes, or whether differences between marine, bovine, and porcine types actually matter. This segment of the conversation often calls for more third-party verification, longer clinical timelines, and consumer protections around exaggerated marketing.

Neutral Observers:
A third perspective — increasingly common among health-savvy consumers — is one of measured experimentation. These users don’t expect overnight transformation. Instead, they test products for 3 to 6 months, track skin hydration, joint comfort, and hair resilience, and make purchasing decisions based on real-world fit. They are less influenced by influencer marketing and more aligned with community discussion, reviews, and ingredient transparency. For this group, collagen is one small part of a broader health optimization plan.

In a saturated market, credibility comes from clarity — and brands that acknowledge all sides of the debate while maintaining honest, educational messaging tend to earn the most long-term trust.

About Pilly Labs

Pilly Labs is part of a new generation of wellness companies that prioritize clean beauty, transparency, and long-term health habits over hype. Founded with the belief that better routines begin with better ingredients, the company creates products that support structural wellness — without cutting corners on sourcing, science, or sustainability.

The brand’s mission is simple: to make foundational health support more accessible, enjoyable, and effective for people seeking internal balance and external confidence. With an ingredient-first philosophy, Pilly Labs formulates each supplement to reflect current research, real consumer needs, and modern preferences for ease, taste, and trust.

Pilly Labs Collagen Gummies are a direct result of that philosophy. Each gummy is formulated with hydrolyzed marine collagen peptides, combined with nutrient cofactors like Vitamin C, Biotin, Zinc, and Vitamin E — all frequently discussed in wellness communities for their potential to support skin structure, hair health, and mobility from within.

But it’s not just about what’s inside. Pilly Labs pays close attention to what’s excluded, too. The gummies are free from gluten, artificial sweeteners, antibiotics, and synthetic dyes. Even the color and flavor come from natural sources like purple carrot juice concentrate and citrus oils — a nod to the company’s broader clean beauty commitment.

Rather than chasing fads or flashy claims, Pilly Labs focuses on consistency, education, and sustainability. The goal isn’t to promise instant results — it’s to help people build simple, effective routines they can stick with for months or years to come. By making high-quality collagen accessible through a convenient gummy format, the company empowers users to take ownership of their beauty and wellness journey with confidence.

Tired of powders and pills that disrupt your routine or taste artificial?
Try the Collagen Gummy That’s Designed for Simplicity and Results

Contact

Final Disclaimer

This press release is for informational purposes only. The information contained herein does not constitute medical advice, diagnosis, or treatment and has not been evaluated by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Collagen Supplement is not intended to diagnose, treat, cure, or prevent any disease. Always consult your physician or qualified healthcare provider before beginning any new supplement, routine, or health program.

Some links in this release may be promotional in nature and may lead to third-party websites. The publisher or author may receive compensation through affiliate commissions if a purchase is made through these links. This compensation does not affect the price you pay and helps support continued research and content publication. Results described or implied may not be typical and should not be interpreted as guarantees.

Statements made about ingredients or outcomes reflect public discussion and historical usage only, and are not endorsed by medical professionals or regulatory agencies. Always do your own research and make informed decisions.

CONTACT: Email Support: info@pillylabs.com

Online “ghost stores” masquerading as Australian businesses have expanded into advertising Ozempic-like weight loss treatments, and are impersonating real people, including a well-known dietitian, to recommend their products.

After uncovering more than 140 sites falsely claiming to be Australian fashion retailers that prompted a public warning from the consumer regulator, Guardian Australia has identified a new scam that targets people trying to lose weight.

Consumer experts say the scam is dangerous, because it goes beyond financial risk and threatens people’s health, while dietitian Lyndi Cohen says her image has been used without her consent to spruik a product she would never endorse.

In one example, a Facebook page called “Emma Davis”, which claimed to be a “team of specialist in diabetes care and weight management” based in New South Wales, ran advertising for a product it claimed was a “GLP-1 plant based oral solution”.

GLP-1 is a naturally occurring hormone in the body that helps regulate blood sugar levels and appetite.

Following the explosion in popularity of drugs such as Ozempic and Mounjaro, it has become easy to order supplements, patches and pills online that claim to mimic their GLP-1 stimulating effects – even from reputable suppliers.

The ad featured a testimonial signed off “Helen, 68, Sydney” who apparently considered the product to be “one of the best gifts I’ve given myself in years”. The promotion used a series of “before and after photos” which appeared to be AI-generated.

It included detailed claims about the product, which it said was “perfect” for people with “big appetites” or “anyone who’s tried GLP-1 drops or injections without much result”.

The comments section was filled with hopeful messages and glowing testimonials, posted by what appeared to be Australian women.

But details in their profiles told a different story.

A reverse image search suggested they were fake and their pictures stolen from real women including, in one case, Polish war correspondent Agnieszka Pikulicka-Wilczewska, whose photo was used for a profile of Gold Coast woman “Isla Taylor”.

Pikulicka-Wilczewska confirmed it was her image and that she didn’t know it was being used in this way. “Obviously, the account in question should remove it asap and should not use it again,” she said in an email to Guardian Australia.

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Another profile, apparently that of a middle-aged blonde woman from Canberra, used photos of three women including a guest columnist at a local newspaper in Ohio and a well-known former US TV host. Guardian Australia sought comment from both of these women and contacted the fake profiles.

The ad linked to the website Maementcurves.com, which was still active as of Friday, although the page with the weight-loss products appeared to have been taken down after Guardian Australia contacted the site for comment.

The site claimed the product, “STDEI GLP-1 Weight Loss Oral Liquid”, was made in Australia and developed by a local, family-owned company, even though it is readily available elsewhere on the internet including on AliExpress, eBay and an array of other “ghost stores”.

Fake profiles and reviews ‘particularly insidious’

The Maementcurves.com site, portraying itself as Australian, claimed the treatment had even saved the life of a customer who had been “seriously obese and close to death” and was “especially endorsed by Lyndi Cohen, one of Australia’s leading dietitians”.

Cohen told Guardian Australia she was aware of the site and that her likeness was “being abused and misrepresented” to promote a product she would “obviously not endorse”.

“We sent them a cease and desist letter. We have not heard back. For me, the challenge is: I don’t know how to action it,” she said.

“It feels like international waters in a way, there’s no jurisdiction. Whose job is it to control and manage this?”

Guardian Australia bought the product for $46 on 23 July, using PayPal. As of Thursday, no shipping notification had been sent. The PayPal receipt showed the payment was made to an entity called Altrix Limited, which Guardian Australia contacted for comment.

Altrix Limited appears to be based in Hong Kong. But it is also the name of an English company, according to the UK’s companies register. The Maementcurves.com website is linked to another Hong Kong entity called Lanee Limited, which shares its name with a Welsh company which was dissolved in 2023.

PayPal has previously conceded that it may not verify the identities of online sellers based outside Australia, while swindled customers have called for the platform to do more to help scam victims.

A spokesperson on Thursday said PayPal had “zero-tolerance” for fraudulent activity on its platform. “Our teams work tirelessly to protect our customers,” they said. “Under PayPal’s Buyer Protection Policy, we will refund the full purchase price plus the original shipping charges for eligible claims.”

The Consumer Action Law Centre’s legal practice director, Stephen Nowicki, said the use of fake profiles and fake reviews was “particularly insidious” and digital platforms should be held responsible.

“It is important platforms are penalised for failing to block these fake ads, as they continue to benefit from the harms these ads cause for consumers,” he said. “In our view banks also have an obligation to identify scam accounts receiving these payments and block or flag them with consumers.”

The deputy chief executive of the Consumer Policy Research Centre, Chandni Gupta, said pursuing each misleading profile or ghost store would be like “an endless whack-a-mole”.

“A more systemic approach is what’s needed and it starts with holding digital platforms accountable to take real responsibility for fuelling such profiles in the first place,” she said.

Advocates have previously called on Shopify and Meta to take responsibility for enabling this type of website and allowing them to run false advertising.

The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) last month put the platforms on notice after it publicly announced it had written to them urging them to act on the ghost stores issue.

Guardian Australia understands the ACCC has received responses from Meta and Shopify. A spokesperson for the regulator said scam websites should be reported to Scamwatch for assessment to determine whether they should be taken down.

Meta declined to comment. Shopify, the Canadian multinational e-commerce platform headed by Tobias Lütke, has not responded to repeated requests for comment.

(Bloomberg) — The Bank of England is likely to deliver another interest-rate cut on Thursday, as tax hikes and wary consumers hamper Britain’s economy and prompt firms to slow hiring.

Most Read from Bloomberg

The Monetary Policy Committee is widely expected to reduce its benchmark rate by 25 basis points, to 4%, sticking to its once-a-quarter pace of cutting.

In contrast to the caution of the US Federal Reserve, which kept borrowing costs unchanged again on Wednesday, the BOE is looking through the fastest inflation in 17 months and focusing instead on growth worries after back-to-back contractions in gross domestic product and mounting job losses over the spring.

Employers have cut demand for workers after being hit by measures in the Labour government’s first budget, which included a £26 billion ($34.5 billion) increase in payroll taxes and a sharp increase in the minimum wage.

What Bloomberg Economics Says:

“We think the central bank will be cautious about signaling more rate cuts are in the offing – inflation has surprised to the upside and price expectations are elevated.”

—Dan Hanson, chief UK economist. For full analysis, click here

BOE Governor Andrew Bailey has continued to guide markets toward gradual rate cuts and maintains that the recent jump in price pressures will be temporary. Officials will unveil a quarterly update to forecasts after inflation turned out hotter than they’d predicted back in May.

Investors will also be looking for any hints on how quickly the UK central bank plans to run down its balance sheet of bonds ahead of its next decision on quantitative tightening in September.

Speculation has mounted that the BOE will limit the amount of active gilt sales after signs of strain in long-dated UK bond yields.

Elsewhere, trade data from multiple nations and a potential rate cut in Mexico are among the week’s highlights. Meanwhile, after President Donald Trump’s latest tariff barrage, some countries will attempt to renegotiate US levies before they kick in on Aug. 7.

Click here for what happened in the past week, and below is our wrap of what’s coming up in the global economy.

US and Canada

The US economic calendar lightens up after key reports showed bigger cracks forming in the job market after a slowdown in economic growth during the first half of 2025. On Tuesday, government data will likely show the trade deficit in goods and service narrowed in June.

Preliminary figures indicated the value of goods imports by the US declined for a third straight month, marking a reversal from the first quarter when companies aggressively stockpiled foreign-made merchandise ahead of expected higher tariffs.

Also on Tuesday, the Institute for Supply Management’s July survey of service providers will provide clues on how well industries that represent the biggest slice of the economy are holding up. The group’s manufacturing survey showed the sharpest contraction in nine months against a backdrop of higher import duties and softer demand.

Following a disappointing July jobs report and the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold rates steady, investors will monitor comments from a handful of central bankers this week. Lisa Cook, Susan Collins, Mary Daly, Raphael Bostic and Alberto Musalem are slated for public events.

Meanwhile, investors will watch for any hints from the White House on who might be nominated to fill Adriana Kugler’s seat, after the Fed board member announced on Friday that she would step down.

Even before her early departure, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had suggested the administration might propose a replacement for Kugler who’d then be elevated into the post of Fed chair when Jerome Powell’s term ends in May.

Jobs data for July will offer the latest snapshot of the Canadian job market after a surprise jump in employment in June suggested resilience. International goods trade for June may show weakened exports to the US as tariffs start to reshape trade flows.

The US trade data will indicate the proportion of Canadian exports being sent there under the USMCA agreement, a tariff carve-out.

Asia

Key readings on trade, economic growth and inflation are scheduled across the region. The releases get under way on Tuesday, with a reading of July consumer prices for South Korea, set to show little change from a year ago.

Inflation reports are also on tap for the Philippines the same day, followed by Taiwan, Vietnam and Thailand on Wednesday. Price growth has largely been contained across the region, and central banks are looking to cut rates.

Second-quarter GDP is in the spotlight on Tuesday in Indonesia, seen broadly unchanged from the prior year, and on Thursday in the Philippines, where economists expect an uptick.

Trade is in focus following Trump’s Aug. 1 reciprocal levies announcement. Frontrunning to get ahead of these tariffs has elevated exports for many countries, so the readings for July may be among the year’s strongest before an anticipated pullback.

The insight into trade activity begins Wednesday with figures from Vietnam, which in June notched another month of double-digit growth.

Australia and China — which has faced the steepest trade restrictions on sales to the US — report export data on Thursday. Semiconductor powerhouse Taiwan closes out the week the following day.

Elsewhere, Malaysia will disclose July industrial production on Thursday, which should provide more insight into how Southeast Asian economies are handling the tariff uncertainty after PMI data showed the weakest activity outlook since the pandemic.

New Zealand reports labor market data, Singapore releases June retail sales, and Japan will report an array of financial data including foreign bond buying and household spending throughout the week.

Meanwhile, India’s central bank meets Tuesday, with Bloomberg Economics anticipating a dovish pause, holding the repo rate at 5.5% after easing 100 basis points this year.

Europe, Middle East, Africa

Switzerland, shocked at Trump’s imposition of a 39% tariff, will be in focus on Monday as markets reopen there after a national holiday. Officials are likely to redouble efforts to secure a trade deal in the coming days.

Swiss inflation data is also due on Monday, with another monthly outcome of just 0.1% anticipated. An index of Swiss purchasing managers will also be released.

In the euro zone, various industrial and trade numbers from the four biggest economies are on the schedule, pointing to the state of manufacturing in June.

Those reports could potentially lead to revisions in national and regional GDP data. On Wednesday, Eurostat revealed that the euro-area economy expanded 0.1% in the second quarter. French unemployment will be released on Friday.

The European Central Bank is on a summer break with little on its schedule. Bank of Finland Governor Olli Rehn is the exception; he’s due to speak on Thursday at a seminar featuring former BOE chief Mervyn King.

In Turkey on Monday, annual inflation data are expected to continue to show easing in July, to 34% from 35% the prior month. Monthly inflation is seen quickening, though, after a series of tax hikes and administrative price increases — which officials have characterized as “temporary.” Rate cuts may continue when the central bank meets in September.

Swedish inflation data are due on Thursday. The CPIF measure targeted by the Riksbank is anticipated by economists to surge above 3%.

Aside from the BOE, some other monetary decisions are scheduled:

• On Tuesday, Lesotho’s MPC is likely to cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 6.75% in a bid to boost an economy devastated by Trump’s tariff determinations. Its textile industry has been at a standstill because orders from the US, its largest export market, have dried up.

• The Czech central bank is expected to keep rates unchanged at its policy-setting meeting on Thursday.

• Serbia’s central bank may do likewise, extending an almost year-long pause after inflation surged again in June.

• On Friday, Romania’s central bank is expected to keep borrowing costs unchanged as it assesses the impact of tax increases on inflation and the economy.

Latin America

Colombia’s central bank posts its quarterly inflation report and July meeting minutes on Monday and Tuesday, respectively. The report may walk back the previous quarter’s messaging about gradual policy easing given sticky inflation, surprising economic momentum, and concern over the nation’s deteriorating fiscal outlook.

After a split decision to hold the key rate at 9.25%, analysts and investors will be eager to pore over the minutes. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg see BanRep — along with Brazil’s BCB — easing into 2027.

Brazil’s policymakers on Tuesday post the minutes of their July 29-30 meeting, where they voted unanimously to hold the policy rate at 15%. Little deviation on guidance and the hawkish tone seen in the post-decision statement likely puts off any easing until 2026.

Few analysts doubt that Banxico has a quarter-point cut ready to go for its August meeting on Thursday — and that was before Trump extended Mexico’s current tariff rates for 90 days. All but two of the 37 analysts surveyed by Citi’s local unit are looking for just that — a move that would trim the key rate to 7.75%.

Three of the region’s big inflation-targeting economies post July inflation data in the coming week. Consumer price increases in Mexico may have slowed below 3.6%, while inching down to 4% in Chile and ticking up from 4.82% in Colombia.

–With assistance from Andrew Atkinson, Beril Akman, David Goodman, Erik Hertzberg, Katia Dmitrieva, Mark Evans, Monique Vanek, Robert Jameson and Vince Golle.

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It seems a lifetime ago, but it was 2017 when the former NBN CEO Mike Quigley and I wrote a book about the impact of technology on our labour market.

Changing Jobs: The Fair Go in the New Machine Age was our attempt to make sense of rapid technological change and its implications for Australian workers.

It sprang from a thinkers’ circle Andrew Charlton and I convened regularly back then, to consider the biggest, most consequential shifts in our economy.

Flicking through the book now makes it very clear that the pace of change since then has been breathtaking.

The stories of Australian tech companies give a sense of its scale.

In 2017, the cloud design pioneer Canva was valued at $US1bn – today, it’s more than $US30bn.

Leading datacentre company AirTrunk was opening its first two centres in Sydney and Melbourne. It now has almost a dozen across Asia-Pacific and is backed by one of the world’s biggest investors.

We understand a churning and changing world is a source of opportunity but also anxiety for Australians.

While the technology has changed, our goal as leaders remains the same.

The responsibility we embrace is to make Australian workers, businesses and investors beneficiaries, not victims, of that change.

That matters more than ever in a new world of artificial intelligence.

The AI ‘hype cycle’

Breakthroughs in “large language models” (LLMs) – computer programs trained on massive datasets that can understand and respond in human languages – have triggered a booming AI “hype cycle” and are driving a “cognitive industrial revolution”.

ChatGPT became a household name in a matter of months and has reframed how we think about working, creating and problem-solving.

LLMs have been adopted seven times faster than the internet and 20 times faster than electricity. The rapid take-up has driven the biggest rise in the S&P 500 since the late 1990s.

According to one US estimate, eight out of 10 workers could use LLMs for at least 10% of their work in future.

Yet businesses are still in the discovery phase, trying to separate hype from reality and determine what AI to build, buy or borrow.

Two huge impacts

Artificial intelligence will completely transform our economy. Every aspect of life will be affected.

I’m optimistic that AI will be a force for good, but realistic about the risks.

The Nobel prize-winning economist Darren Acemoglu estimates that AI could boost productivity by 0.7% over the next decade, but some private sector estimates are up to 30 times higher.

Goldman Sachs expects AI could drive gross domestic product (GDP) growth up 7% over the next 10 years, and PwC estimates it could bump up global GDP by $15.7tn by 2030.

The wide variation in estimates is partly due to different views on how long it will take to integrate AI into business workflows deeply enough to transform the market size or cost base of industries.

But if some of the predictions prove correct, AI may be the most transformative technology in human history.

At its best, it will convert energy into analysis, and more productivity into higher living standards.

It’s expected to have at least two significant economy-wide effects.

First, it reduces the cost of information processing.

One example of this is how eBay’s AI translation tools have removed language barriers to drive international sales. The increase in cross-border trade is the equivalent of having buyers and sellers 26% closer to one another – effectively shrinking the distance between Australia and global markets.

This is one reason why the World Trade Organization forecasts AI will lower trade costs and boost trade volumes by up to 13%.

Second, cheaper analysis accelerates and increases our problem-solving capacity, which can, in turn, speed up innovation by reducing research and development (R&D) costs and skills bottlenecks.

By making more projects stack up commercially, AI is likely to raise investment, boost GDP and generate demand for human expertise.

Concerns over jobs

Despite the potential for AI to create more high-skilled, high-wage jobs, some are concerned that adoption will lead to big increases in unemployment. The impact of AI on the labour force is uncertain, but there are good reasons to be optimistic.

One study finds that more than half of the use cases of LLMs involve workers iterating back and forth with the technology, augmenting workers’ skills in ways that enable them to achieve more.

Another recent study found that current LLMs often automate only some tasks within roles, freeing up employees to add more value rather than reducing hours worked.

These are some of the reasons many expect the AI transformation to enhance skills and change the nature of work, rather than causing widespread or long-term structural unemployment.

Even so, the impact of AI on the nature of work is expected to be substantial.

We’ve seen this play out before – more than half the jobs people do today are in occupations that didn’t even exist at the start of the second world war.

Some economists have suggested AI could increase occupational polarisation – driving a U-shaped increase in demand for manual roles that are harder to automate and high-skill roles that leverage technology, but a reduction in demand for medium-skilled tasks.

But workers in many of these occupations may be able to leverage AI to complete more specialised tasks and take on more productive, higher-paying roles. In this transition, the middle has the most to gain and the most at stake.

There is also a risk that AI could increase short-term unemployment if investment in skills does not keep up with the changing nature of work.

Governments have an important role to play here, and a big motivation for our record investment in education is ensuring that skills keep pace with technological change. But it’s also up to business, unions and the broader community to ensure we continue to build the human capital and skills we need to grasp this opportunity.

Australia’s opportunity

To be optimistic about AI is not to dismiss the risks, which are not limited to the labour market.

The ability of AI to rapidly collate, create and disseminate information and disinformation makes people more vulnerable to fraud and poses a risk to democracies.

AI technologies are also drastically reducing the cost of surveillance and increasing its effectiveness, with implications for privacy, autonomy at work and, in some cases, personal security.

There are questions of ethics, of inequality, of bias in algorithms, and legal responsibility for decision-making when AI is involved.

These new technologies will also put pressure on resources such as energy, land, water and telecoms infrastructure, with implications for carbon emissions.

But we are well placed to manage the risks and maximise the opportunities.

In 2020, Australia was ranked sixth in the world in terms of AI companies and research institutions when accounting for GDP. Our industrial opportunities are vast and varied – from developing AI software to using AI to unlock value in traditional industries.

Markets for AI hardware – particularly chips – and foundational models are quite concentrated. About 70% of the widely used foundational models have been developed in the US, and three US firms claim 65% of the global cloud computing market.

But further downstream, markets for AI software and services are dynamic, fragmented and more competitive. The Productivity Commission sees potential to develop areas of comparative advantage in these markets.

Infrastructure is an obvious place to start.

According to the International Data Corporation, global investment in AI infrastructure increased 97% in the first half of 2024 to $US47bn and is on its way to $US200bn by 2028. We are among the top five global destinations for datacentres and a world leader in quantum computing.

Our landmass, renewable energy potential and trusted international partnerships make us an attractive destination for data processing.

Our substantial agenda, from the capacity investment scheme to the Future Made in Australia plan, will be key to this. They are good examples of our strategy to engage and invest, not protect and retreat.

The way ahead

Our intention is to regulate as much as necessary to protect Australians, but as little as possible to encourage innovation.

There is much work already under way: our investment in quantum computing company PsiQuantum and AI adopt centres, development of Australia’s first voluntary AI safety standard, putting AI on the critical technologies list, a national capability plan, and work on R&D.

Next steps will build on the work of colleagues like the assistant minister for the digital economy, Andrew Charlton, the science minister, Tim Ayres and former science minister Ed Husic, and focus on at least five things:

• Building confidence in AI to accelerate development and adoption in key sectors.

• Investing in and encouraging up skilling and reskilling to support our workforce.

• Helping to attract, streamline, speed up and coordinate investment in data infrastructure that’s in the national interest, in ways that are cost effective, sustainable and make the most of our advantages.

• Promoting fair competition in global markets and building demand and capability locally to secure our influence in AI supply chains.

• And working with the finance minister, Katy Gallagher, to deliver safer and better public services using AI.

Beneficiaries of change

Artificial intelligence will be a key concern of the economic reform roundtable I’m convening this month because it has major implications for economic resilience, productivity and budget sustainability. I’m setting these thoughts out now to explain what we’ll grapple with and how.

AI is contentious, and of course, there is a wide spectrum of views, but we are ambitious and optimistic.

We can deploy AI in a way consistent with our values if we treat it as an enabler, not an enemy, by listening to and training workers to adapt and augment their work.

Because empowering people to use AI well is not just a matter of decency or a choice between prosperity and fairness; it is the only way to get the best out of people and technology at the same time.

It is not beyond us to chart a responsible middle course on AI, which maximises the benefits and manages the risks. Not by letting it rip, and not by turning back the clock and pretending none of this is happening, but by turning algorithms into opportunities for more Australians to be beneficiaries, not victims of a rapid transformation that is gathering pace.

By Mark Hulbert

The current political environment and currency market disruption are disturbingly similar

This past week has been strong for the U.S. Dollar Index DXY – its best since October 2022, in fact. It’s a far cry from the first half of this year, when the index lost almost 11% – the worst first-half return on record since the index was created in the early 1970s.

Looking back, you might think that the weak dollar was good for U.S. stocks, given the S&P 500’s SPX total return of 6.2% during this recent period of dollar decline. But the U.S. stock market has also performed spectacularly in years when the dollar was unusually strong. So maybe the dollar’s movements don’t matter to dollar-based investors.

Or just maybe, if the Federal Reserve lowers U.S. interest rates aggressively – as the Trump administration wants – and the dollar declines sharply as a result, the stock market could react adversely.

It’s happened before: in October 1987.

To gain more insight, I first measured the dollar index’s track record as both a coincident and as a leading indicator of the S&P 500’s earnings per share.

I came up mostly empty when investigating the dollar’s potential as a coincident indicator. As measured by a statistic known as r-squared, trailing-year changes in the dollar index since 1973 have been able to explain or predict just 1% of contemporaneous changes in the S&P 500’s earnings per share. A reason for this near-zero r-squared is that the relationship between trailing-year changes in the dollar and EPS has varied widely. Depending on the five-year period since 1973, the correlation between the two is as high as 0.44 or as low as minus 0.83.

What about the dollar as a leading indicator? I next looked to see if the dollar’s trailing-year rate of change is correlated with EPS’s subsequent growth rate. But I reached a similar conclusion as before. Take a look at the chart below. It plots the correlation between the dollar’s trailing 12-month change and the subsequent 12-month growth rate of the S&P 500’s EPS for each five-year period since the 1970s. Notice that the correlation is not stable.

In the mid-1990s and again in the period leading up to the 2008 global financial crisis, the correlation was strongly positive – meaning that a stronger dollar led to faster EPS growth. In contrast, the correlation was strongly negative in the 1980s and the early aughts. Over the entire period since the early 1970s, DXY’s trailing 12-month changes were able to explain just 0.4% of the subsequent 12-month growth rates of the S&P 500’s EPS (as measured by r-squared).

Read: A short squeeze is lifting the U.S. dollar versus the euro

Did a declining dollar cause the 1987 stock market crash?

In both cases, there does not appear to be a statistical basis for concluding that a falling dollar will be either good or bad for dollar-denominated investors in U.S. stocks.

But there is a non-statistical basis for concern: an ominous parallel with the financial environment that prevailed in the weeks leading up to the October 1987 stock-market crash. On that day – Black Monday – the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA dropped 22.6% in a single session.

Though there many factors that led to the 1987 crash, a plunging U.S. dollar at the time was a major cause. So it’s possible that in extreme situations, a falling dollar in fact should command investors’ attention.

Prior to Black Monday, the dollar index was 7% lower than at the beginning of 1987. What seemed to particularly worry investors was that the Reagan administration was actively pushing for an even lower dollar. Then-Treasury Secretary James Baker was jawboning the Federal Reserve to aggressively reduce interest rates, with the avowed intention of both boosting the economy and causing the dollar to decline even further.

Barron’s editor Randall Forsyth, in his history of the 1987 crash, writes that Baker’s comments in the week before Black Monday “were intended to push the dollar lower against the [German] mark and other currencies. A weaker dollar was preferable to higher interest rates, which Baker saw as a threat to the U.S. economic recovery, especially with the 1988 election looming. Markets responded by dumping stocks… The prospect of a currency war made risk assets, especially pricey stocks, too risky.”

The parallels with the current financial and political climate are concerning. Stocks are even more overvalued now, and once again a combative presidential administration is aggressively pressuring the Fed to reduce interest rates. Needless to say, lower rates would almost certainly push the dollar down even further against foreign currencies.

Of course, the 1987 stock-market crash is just one data point, so by no means is there a guarantee that history will repeat. But history rhymes – and in this case that is a scary prospect.

Mark Hulbert is a regular contributor to MarketWatch. His Hulbert Ratings tracks investment newsletters that pay a flat fee to be audited. He can be reached at mark@hulbertratings.com

More: Dissenting Fed governors? That could be telling for interest rates, says this analyst.

Also read: Dollar index moves to two month high after euro and yen slide

-Mark Hulbert

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