Category: 3. Business

  • Transformational innovation opportunities: AI, electrification and longevity 

    Transformational innovation opportunities: AI, electrification and longevity 




    Transformational innovation opportunities: AI, electrification and longevity  – Monocle













    Skip to main content

    Currently being edited in London


    Click here to discover more from Monocle

    UBS expects structural trends such as AI, electrification and longevity to be the biggest long-term drivers in equity markets. Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, GWM head of global equities, explains how smart investors can take advantage.

    • All Episodes

    • View schedule

    Action amid uncertainty: The UBS outlook 

    Despite a volatile year so far, there remains rewards for patient investors capable of navigating uncertainty. Kiran Ganesh, UBS GWM head of investment communications, discusses what we might learn in the remainder of 2025.

    Proper copper opportunity 

    Dominic Schnider from UBS Global Wealth Management joins us to discuss industrial metal markets and to explain why copper might provide a compelling opportunity for smart investors with a longer-term view.  

    Scapegoat economics and the cost of prejudice politics

    Scapegoat economics wrongly blames a particular group for problems, while prejudice politics promises to reduce that group’s influence. Paul Donovan of UBS explains what happens when prejudice fails to solve the underlying issue.

    You currently have no items in your cart.

    • Subtotal:
    • Shipping:
    • Total:

    Checkout

    Shipping will be calculated at checkout.

    Shipping to the USA? Due to import regulations, we are currently unable to ship orders valued over USD 800 to addresses in the United States.

    Not ready to checkout? Continue Shopping



    Continue Reading

  • High street banks lose £100bn in deposits as UK savers shift to online rivals | Banking

    High street banks lose £100bn in deposits as UK savers shift to online rivals | Banking

    High street banks across the UK have lost the equivalent of £100bn in savings as more customers turned from traditional lenders towards online banks and building societies, figures show.

    Experts at KPMG said rival banks – including new challenger banks, specialist lenders and building societies – had lured customers away from incumbent banking groups with higher savings rates. The traditional banks’ market share in deposits dropped from 84% in 2019 to 80% in 2024, it added.

    Meanwhile the banking sector collectively suffered a £3.7bn combined drop in total pre-tax profits last year, marking the first major downturn since the rebound in the wake of the pandemic.

    The sector’s average return on equity, a key performance measure, is expected to fall by more than a third, from a peak of 13% in 2023 to 8% by 2027. That is equivalent to an £11bn drop in annual profits.

    KPMG warned that banks were under pressure to adapt to major changes in the sector, including increased competition and rising costs.

    The flight of customers from high street lenders follows a period in which banks were accused of “profiteering” from rising interest rates by offering paltry returns for savers.

    skip past newsletter promotion

    Executives from big high street names such as Lloyds Banking Group, NatWest, HSBC and Barclays were hauled into meetings with regulators and MPs in 2023, amid concerns that interest offered on savings lagged far behind the soaring interest rates for mortgages and loans.

    These concerns sparked debate over whether the government should impose a windfall tax on banks, to recoup costs for consumers during the cost of living crisis. Similar policies were introduced in the Czech Republic, Lithuania and Spain, but UK politicians have so far refused to follow suit.

    Peter Westlake, a partner in KPMG UK’s banking strategy team, said: “Banks are facing a lower-growth, higher-cost environment that demands transformation at pace. While we can expect profitability to broadly remain sound this year, the entire sector needs to show how they are preparing for challenges ahead.”

    Bank costs rose by 6% in 2024, which – together with falling productivity among workers – could put bank profits under further pressure, according to KPMG’s report.

    Westlake suggested that banks could turn to less conventional methods to boost profits, including by embracing artificial intelligence. “The winners will be those that move beyond tactical cost-cutting and proactively address oncoming market headwinds through business model transformation,” he said.

    Continue Reading

  • BlueScope Joins With Asian Steelmakers to Consider Whyalla Steelworks Bid

    BlueScope Joins With Asian Steelmakers to Consider Whyalla Steelworks Bid

    By Rhiannon Hoyle

    Australia's BlueScope Steel said Monday it has teamed up with a group of Asian steelmakers to submit a nonbinding expression of interest for the Whyalla Steelworks, which entered bankruptcy earlier this year.

    Melbourne-based BlueScope said has entered into a collaboration agreement with Nippon Steel, JSW Steel and Posco to participate in the sale process for the steelworks in South Australia state. The indicative expression of interest outlines possible options for the Whyalla assets, the company said.

    "BlueScope will leverage its detailed knowledge of the Australian steel industry and Whyalla assets as the consortium assesses potential options, opportunity and capital requirements," it said.

    BlueScope said the consortium views Whyalla as a prospective location for lower-emissions iron manufacturing, which could play a key role in reducing global steel-industry pollution.

    There is no obligation under the agreement for any of the consortium members to make an offer to acquire the steelworks, BlueScope said.

    The steelworks, which had been run by British metals magnate Sanjeev Gupta, was placed into administration by South Australia's state government in February because of unpaid bills.

    Write to Rhiannon Hoyle at rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com

    (END) Dow Jones Newswires

    August 03, 2025 18:59 ET (22:59 GMT)

    Copyright (c) 2025 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

    Continue Reading

  • U.S. stock futures dip after Friday’s drop on Wall Street; oil falls as OPEC+ extends output boost

    U.S. stock futures dip after Friday’s drop on Wall Street; oil falls as OPEC+ extends output boost

    By Mike Murphy

    U.S. stock-market futures declined Sunday, after Wall Street ended last week with its worst session since April.

    Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM00) were down about 50 points, or 0.1% on Sunday evening. S&P 500 futures (ES00) were off about 0.1%, and Nasdaq-100 futures (NQ00) dipped 0.2%.

    Stocks fell sharply Friday as investors reacted to the imposition of the Trump administration’s stiff tariff regimen and a weaker-than-expected jobs report. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA fell 542.40 points, or 1.2%, to close at 43,588.58, while the S&P 500 SPX slumped 101.38 points, or 1.6%, to end at 6,238.01 and the Nasdaq Composite COMP dropped 472.32 points, or 2.2%, to close at 20,650.13. The Dow lost 2.9% on the week, while the S&P 500 fell 2.4 and the Nasdaq declined 2.2%.

    Friday’s drop was the biggest for the S&P 500 since April 21, and came after a July that saw 10 record-high closes, while never moving more than 1% in either direction in a given day.

    Read more: A record-setting July for stocks gave way to rough start to August-investors may not be ready for what comes next

    Meanwhile, gold (GC00) inched higher Sunday, bitcoin (BTCUSD) traded just above the $114,000 level, and crude oil prices (CLU25) (BRNV25) slipped about 1%.

    On Saturday, eight members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, or OPEC+, agreed to boost production for the fifth straight month. The group, led by Saudi Arabia, will increase output by 547,000 barrels a day in September. That’s down slightly from the 548,000 barrels-a-day increase announced in July for August production.

    West Texas crude prices (CL.1) have largely remained under $70 a barrel since the increases were announced in April, and oil prices are down around 7% year to date.

    It’s part of a plan to unwind voluntary supply cuts from 2023. The September output hike should be the final step in getting crude production back up to speed a year earlier than originally planned. The move also serves as a punishment for countries that have been over-producing oil, such as Iraq and Kazakhstan, and an opportunity for oil-producing nations like Saudi Arabia to win back market share from U.S. shale drillers as prices fall. OPEC+ will next meet Sept. 7, and it’s unclear it they’ll continue to boost output, pause, or even reverse course and cut production.

    “OPEC+ just slammed the final page shut on its two-year production-cut playbook – but instead of delivering a tidy resolution, they’ve led crude traders straight to a fork in the pipeline,” Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, wrote in a Sunday note, noting that “the fate of an additional 1.66 million barrels per day, still held off-market until at least 2026, remains a mystery.”

    From July: Can OPEC+ flood the world with crude? It’s harder than oil traders think.

    Investors will also be keeping an eye on corporate earnings this week, with quarterly reports expected from the Walt Disney Co. (DIS), Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. (WBD), McDonald’s Corp. (MCD), Uber Technologies Inc. (UBER) and Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR).

    Read more: It’s a pivotal week for earnings-what they reveal about tariffs and the resilience of U.S. consumers

    -Mike Murphy

    This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

    (END) Dow Jones Newswires

    08-03-25 1831ET

    Copyright (c) 2025 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

    Continue Reading

  • Latest Oil Market News and Analysis for Aug. 4

    Latest Oil Market News and Analysis for Aug. 4

    Oil fell after OPEC+ agreed to another major output increase, stoking concerns about global oversupply just as the US-led trade war may be exacting a toll on economic growth and energy consumption.

    Brent edged lower toward $69 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate was near $67, after OPEC+ endorsed an additional 547,000 barrels-a-day of output from September, in line with expectations. Another layer of about 1.66 million barrel-a-day of curbed supply may follow, although there’s no clear signaling.

    Continue Reading

  • Stock market today live updates

    Stock market today live updates

    Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during afternoon trading on August 1, 2025 in New York City.

    Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images

    Stock futures are little changed Sunday night, with investors once again on edge as the Trump administration’s new round of tariffs heightened worries about rising inflation and an economic slowdown.

    S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures hovered near the flatline. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 15 points, or less than 0.1%.

    Stocks are coming off of a volatile trading week that saw each of the three major U.S. indexes end with significant losses, halting weeks of mostly positive moves for the broader market.

    The S&P 500 ended the week down 2.4%, notching its worst weekly performance since May 23, while the 30-stock Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 2.9% to post its worst week since April 4. The Nasdaq Composite ended the week down 2.2%.

    Friday’s sell-off was driven by a worse-than-expected July jobs report and jitters about President Donald Trump’s new modified tariff rates. Trump signed an executive order late last week that updated his “reciprocal” tariffs on dozens of U.S. trading partners, ranging from Syria to Taiwan, with updated duties ranging from 10% to 41%.

    Investors are now digesting what a weakened U.S. labor market could mean for the weeks ahead. Traders are expecting reduced chances for a September interest rate cut after policymakers last week held the benchmark overnight borrowing rate in place for the fifth-straight meeting.

    The market is also bracing for a historically weak month. August is the worst month for the Dow Jones Industrial Average in data going back to 1988, and the second worst for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite, according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

    Continue Reading

  • Week Ahead for FX, Bonds: U.S. ISM Services Data in Focus; BOE Expected to Cut Rates

    Week Ahead for FX, Bonds: U.S. ISM Services Data in Focus; BOE Expected to Cut Rates

    By Dow Jones Newswires staff

    Below are the most important global events likely to affect FX and bond markets in the week starting August 4.

    The key ISM survey of activity in the U.S. services sector will be closely watched as investors continue to gauge the likelihood of U.S. interest-rate cuts in the coming weeks, particularly after U.S. jobs data for July were much weaker than expected.

    Further news on tariff deals will be watched too after U.S. President Trump announced steeper levies for dozens of countries, though most of these will take effect from August 7.

    In Europe, the Bank of England announces a decision and could reduce interest rates.

    In Asia, Japan's central bank will release minutes, which should share details that led up to the recently announced U.S. trade deal. An interest-rate decision from India is also due, alongside trade and inflation data from China.

    U.S.

    Softer-than-expected U.S. jobs data for July curtailed previous optimism that the U.S. economy was performing well and reignited prospects that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates in September.

    The jobs data were particularly weak due to significant downward revisions to prior data. Investors will be watching closely for any further signals that tariffs and policy uncertainty could be hampering the U.S. economy.

    In an otherwise quiet week, the latest ISM survey on services sector activity in July, due Tuesday, will likely garner the most attention. This data follows below-forecast ISM data on the manufacturing sector, which, alongside the weak jobs figures, "amplifies concerns about economic slowdown," said Aaron Hill, analyst at FP Markets, in a note.

    Weakness in the services ISM could make a September rate cut look very likely. LSEG data show that U.S. money markets are pricing in around a 90% chance of a September rate reduction, up sharply from around 45% prior to the latest jobs data.

    Other data due in the coming week are trade figures for June on Tuesday, followed by preliminary second-quarter productivity figures and weekly jobless claims on Thursday.

    The Treasury will auction $58 billion in three-year notes on Tuesday, $42 billion in 10-year notes on Wednesday and $25 billion in 30-year bonds on Thursday.

    Canada

    Data on the health of the Canadian economy could be of particular interest after President Trump announced that Canada will face tariffs of 35% on any exports into the U.S., having failed to agree a trade deal.

    Canadian trade data for June are due on Tuesday, followed by jobs data on Friday.

    "We think markets continue to underestimate the downside risks for the Canadian economy," ING currency analyst Francesco Pesole said in a note.

    Mexico

    Mexico's central bank will announce a policy decision on Thursday, where it could cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 7.75% due to evidence of ebbing inflationary pressures.

    Capital Economics expects that rates will be lowered to a "below-consensus" 7.00% by the end of 2025. However, they acknowledge that recent strong second-quarter GDP figures for Mexico could mean that rates don't fall as much as this.

    Just ahead of the decision, CPI inflation figures for July are released.

    Eurozone

    Services purchasing managers indices for France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the eurozone on Tuesday should give indications about consumer activity in light of the finalized 15% tariffs on European exports to the U.S.

    Other data will be mostly backward-looking, with June industrial production figures from Spain and France due Tuesday. Manufacturing orders in Germany and Italian industrial production, also for June, are due Wednesday, followed by German industrial production on Thursday.

    Eurozone June producer price figures are released Tuesday and retail trade data for the same month on Wednesday.

    Germany will auction the September 2027 Schatz on Tuesday, as well as May 2038- and July 2042-dated Bunds on Wednesday. Other bond issuers are Austria on Tuesday, and Spain and France on Thursday.

    U.K.

    The Bank of England announces a policy decision on Thursday, where most analysts expect it to reduce interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.00%.

    Such a move would be in keeping with policymakers' signals in recent weeks that rates should be brought lower gradually. The BOE remains cautious as inflation is elevated, but elsewhere there are signs that the U.K. economy is struggling as the labor market cools.

    U.K. money markets are pricing an 86% chance of a rate reduction this month, LSEG data show.

    Other data include the final estimate for the purchasing managers' survey on services activity for July on Tuesday, and the latest RICS house price survey on Friday.

    The U.K. plans to sell government bonds maturing in March 2035 on Tuesday.

    Scandinavia

    Swedish provisional inflation data for July are due on Thursday.

    Scandinavian countries resume bond auctions after the July break with Denmark and Norway lining up for bond sales on Wednesday.

    Switzerland

    Swiss inflation data for July are due on Monday.

    Investors could pay greater attention to evidence of how the Swiss economy is performing after after Trump unexpectedly announced substantial 39% tariffs on Swiss exports to the U.S.

    Czech Republic

    The Czech central bank announces a rate decision on Thursday and is expected to leave the policy rate unchanged at 3.50%.

    The prospect that the Czech central bank's interest-rate cutting cycle has now ended should support the Czech koruna relative to its peers, Commerzbank's Tatha Ghose said in a note.

    Japan

    The Bank of Japan is scheduled to release the minutes of its June 16-17 monetary-policy meeting on Tuesday, and the summary of opinions from its July 30-31 meeting on Friday. The latter may draw greater market attention as it could include views on the recently reached Japan-U.S. trade deal.

    On Wednesday, the central bank plans outright purchases across four sectors of the Japanese government bond market, including securities with tenors of more than three years and up to five years, as well as those with tenors of more than 10 years and up to 25 years. These operations should provide some support to the local bond market that day.

    The Ministry of Finance will auction about 2.6 trillion yen of 10-year sovereign bonds on Tuesday and around 700 billion yen of 30-year government bonds on Thursday. The 30-year JGBs to be auctioned in August will be a reopening of the July 2025 issue, according to the ministry.

    Market participants are expected to closely scrutinize the outcome of the 30-year JGB auction amid lingering concerns over potential additional bond issuance to finance economic stimulus measures by a new government, following the ruling coalition's loss of its Upper House majority in last month's elections.

    Current account balance and household spending figures for June are also scheduled for release on Friday.

    China

    As Beijing and Washington concluded their latest round of trade talks in Stockholm, Chinese trade data due Thursday will offer clues on whether outbound shipments sustained momentum in July. Many analysts expect Chinese exports--pressured by U.S. tariffs--to weaken sharply later this year.

    The gauge for new export orders in the official July manufacturing PMI fell to a three-month low, Citi economists noted. While they expect exports to remain resilient in July, rising about 8% on year, low commodity prices and a less favorable base are likely to weigh on imports.

    Inflation figures are expected to show another month of heightened downward price pressures. China's factory-gate prices have been stuck in deflation for nearly three years, while consumer prices hover around zero growth.

    Chinese authorities have reiterated pledges to curb "disorderly" competition, which has led to brutal price wars. Market attention now turns to further measures to address excess capacity in key industries, including green technology.

    Australia/New Zealand

    The case for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to cut interest rates further could gain momentum, with second-quarter employment data expected to show ongoing labor-market weakness.

    Employment growth over the past three months has been soft, raising concerns that unemployment could climb to about 5.3%, surpassing the central bank's forecast.

    Confirmation of slack in the labor market--despite aggressive rate cuts since mid-2024--would likely revive expectations for further easing this year.

    In Australia, June household spending data will be closely watched for signs that consumers increased purchases during midyear sales. A strong reading could temper expectations for an interest-rate cut at the Reserve Bank of Australia's Aug. 12 meeting.

    After recent second-quarter inflation data showed core price pressures retreating, money markets are now pricing in a 100% probability of an RBA cut.

    India

    India's central bank meets Wednesday amid market volatility and after the U.S. announced a 25% tariff rate, with Washington also threatening "penalties" over India's purchases of Russian goods.

    While a further drop in June inflation has raised the possibility of an August rate cut, the Reserve Bank of India has signaled that its easing cycle may have ended following a 50-basis-point cut in June and a shift in policy stance, said Shilan Shah of Capital Economics.

    ANZ Research expects the decision to be a close call but sees scope for a 25-basis-point cut, citing slowing growth, declining inflation, and the drag from higher U.S. tariffs.

    Some monetary-policy committee members have indicated flexibility on further easing, ANZ noted.

    South Korea

    South Korea's statistics office will release July inflation data on Tuesday.

    Headline inflation likely stayed unchanged from June, rising 2.2% on year, according to the median forecast of 11 economists polled by The Wall Street Journal. On a monthly basis, CPI is expected to have edged up 0.2% after being flat in June.

    (MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

    August 03, 2025 17:14 ET (21:14 GMT)

    Copyright (c) 2025 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

    Continue Reading

  • Week Ahead for FX, Bonds: U.S. ISM Services Data -2-

    Week Ahead for FX, Bonds: U.S. ISM Services Data -2-

    Heat waves and heavy rain may have pushed up some agricultural prices, adding slight inflationary pressure, analysts said.

    While demand-side pressures remain soft, new fiscal stimulus from President Lee Jae-myung’s administration–including cash handouts to boost consumption–could add short-term price pressures, said Chun Kyu-yeon, economist at Hana Securities.

    The Bank of Korea in May projected 2025 inflation at 1.9%, just below its 2.0% target. The central bank is set to update its forecast in August.

    Indonesia

    Indonesia's statistics bureau will release second-quarter GDP data on Tuesday.

    Growth likely eased to 4.80% from 4.87% in the prior quarter, reflecting weaker domestic and external demand, ANZ economists Vicky Xiao Zhou and Raymond Yeung said in a note.

    High-frequency indicators point to softer consumer sentiment, subdued retail and car sales, and slower loan growth. While government spending began rising in June, its full impact will likely appear in the third quarter, they added.

    Although the recent U.S. tariff cut to 19% is a positive step, it may only partially offset downside risks to growth, ANZ said.

    Taiwan

    Taiwan will release July inflation and trade data Wednesday and Friday.

    Inflation likely remained subdued after hitting a more than four-year low in June, with forecasts ranging from 1.3% to 1.6%. ANZ economists expect firm food inflation but a sequential decline in clothing inflation, reflecting seasonal trends.

    July exports likely stayed solid amid continued demand for tech products, though ING economists warned momentum could soften in coming months.

    The U.S. unveiled a 20% tariff on Taiwanese goods ahead of the Aug. 1 deadline--down from the initial 32% but higher than the 15% rate for Japan and South Korea. Taiwan's cabinet said the tariff is temporary as trade talks have reached "a certain degree of consensus" on key issues.

    The final tariff rate could be lowered once negotiations conclude. Details on sectoral tariffs, particularly for chips and electronics, will be key to Taiwan's trade and growth outlook for the rest of the year, economists said.

    Philippines

    The Philippines is scheduled to release its July inflation data on Tuesday. The data will be watched to see if price growth falls within policymakers' target range. Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas expects July's inflation to range between 0.5% and 1.3%, which could open the door for further rate cuts, said MUFG Bank's Lloyd Chan in a research report.

    The Southeast Asian country's second-quarter gross domestic product figures are also due on Thursday. The Philippines' economy likely slowed as election-related restrictions on government spending were in place, Barclays economists and analysts said in a note.

    Thailand

    Thailand will report July inflation this week, which will indicate whether consumer prices remain in deflation.

    Prices likely continued to decline, reflecting lower raw food and energy costs and base effects, ANZ Research said.

    Any references to days are in local times.

    Write to Jessica Fleetham at jessica.fleetham@wsj.com and Jihye Lee at jihye.lee@wsj.com

    (END) Dow Jones Newswires

    August 03, 2025 17:14 ET (21:14 GMT)

    Copyright (c) 2025 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

    Continue Reading

  • Stocks get hit as economic clouds, tariffs gathered – but history suggests it’s too soon to panic

    Stocks get hit as economic clouds, tariffs gathered – but history suggests it’s too soon to panic

    By Vivien Lou Chen

    `Every dip has its day and the market always finds a way to rise above the noise,’ Eric Diton, president and managing director of The Wealth Alliance, says of U.S. stocks

    Tariff threats from President Donald Trump and fresh signs of a weakening jobs market rattled Wall Street investors on Friday – just as the market enters a historically rocky stretch from August to October. But some investors say this isn’t a moment to panic. The stock market, they note, has repeatedly shaken off trade fears in recent months and powered higher.

    Is this time different? Read: August is historically a bad month for Big Tech stocks. What to expect this year.

    Despite registering steep losses on Friday-the biggest one-day declines in more than three months-the S&P 500 SPX remains up 25% from its April 8th low, while the Nasdaq Composite COMP has jumped 35% from its “liberation day” nadir.

    Trump’s latest move – a Thursday deadline for new trade agreements – threatens higher tariffs on more than a dozen countries, including Switzerland. See also: Trump hits dozens more countries with higher tariffs that start Aug. 7″Every dip has its day,” said Eric Diton, president and managing director of The Wealth Alliance in Melville, N.Y., an investment advisory firm that oversees $2.1 billion. He sees the market’s resilience continuing unless earnings weaken, inflation picks up, or the unemployment rate rises substantially.Trade tension are resurfacing at the same time the U.S. labor market is showing cracks. Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report for July included a weaker-than-expected job gain of 73,000 and big reductions to previous months data. On top of that, the unemployment rate came in at 4.2%, as expected, but up from 4.1% previously. The weak jobs report has strengthened expectations for a September interest-rate cut. On Friday, two Federal Reserve governors – Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller – voiced renewed concerns about the labor market, reinforcing their dissent earlier this week when they broke from the majority and backed a cut to benchmark rates. Other recent data painted a mixed picture: GDP rebounded in Q2, but the surge was skewed by front-loaded imports tied to tariff fears. Meanwhile, inflation saw its biggest monthly increase since February, though markets largely shrugged that report off.

    The U.S. economy has so far skirted a recession, even after more than 500 basis points – or 5 percentage points – of Fed rate hikes in 2022 and 2023.

    CIBC’s Gary Pzegeo said the economy was better positioned this cycle, with businesses refinancing and consumers buoyed by post-COVID stimulus and hiring. “We are able to absorb more than we could in other cycles,” said the co-chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth in Boston, which looks after more than $100 billion in assets.

    What CIBC Private Wealth is watching from here is whether companies beyond the technology sector can make further commitments to capital spending, Pzegeo told MarketWatch.

    Large tech companies such as Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) and Meta Platforms Inc. (META) reported earnings results late in July and sent their shares soaring, lending further support to the idea that the recent stock-market rally might have more room to rise, despite Friday’s swoon. See also: Microsoft’s stock surges after earnings and Meta’s growth strikes Wall Street as incomprehensibly strong, and the stock rockets

    What’s ahead?

    Some of the biggest names set to release reports in the week ahead are Walt Disney Co. (DIS) and McDonald’s Corp. (MCD). Later in the month, attention is likely to turn to the Fed’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo., between Aug. 21-23, where Chair Jerome Powell is expected to speak – offering another potential trading catalyst.Continued tariff anxieties and a labor market weaker than previously thought could produce a rocky stretch of trading that investors shouldn’t dismiss. That said, relatively easier Fed policy and Trump’s tactical approach to tariffs could also mean that stock-market investors might still be inclined to buy risky assets and shrug off their worries.

    For bonds, the outlook may be a bit more nuanced.

    There may come a time when bond-market participants might demand higher yields if the U.S. hasn’t made any progress in lowering the government’s debt and deficit, “but we are not there yet,” said Diton of The Wealth Alliance said via phone.

    “What matters most in the end is that we constructively make trading deals around the world,” he said.

    The dog days

    History shows that August often brings turbulence for U.S. stocks. The Nasdaq Composite, for example, has averaged a gain of just 0.3% during the month, while September tends to be worse. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA and S&P 500 have both posted average losses of 1.1% for that month, while the Nasdaq has lost 0.9% and the small-cap Russell 2000 RUT has lost 0.6%, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

    October has a slightly better record, though small-cap stocks tend to lose an average of 0.6%.

    Until Thursday, when Trump announced steeper tariffs on more than a dozen countries, investors appeared to have already moved past their worst stagflation fears – by sending the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to record closing highs on July 28, and keeping long-dated Treasury yields mostly rangebound.

    But Friday’s opened old wounds – reminders that tariffs and labor market unease still have the power to disrupt.

    Some investors remain optimistic that the current volatility could ease if trade rhetoric cools and economic data holds up. An easier Fed policy path, paired with Trump’s tendency to use tariff threats as bargaining chips, could still support stock gains.

    The bond-market outlook, as noted earlier, is complicated. Tariffs could stir short-term inflation while dragging on long-term growth. At the same time, they may boost government revenue – a possible offset to the concern of rising deficits tied to Trump’s tax and spending plan.

    “The worst-case scenarios that everyone imagined back in April have turned into something not so bad, but also not so great so we have to be careful about how much optimism gets priced into the market,” said CIBC’s Pzegeo. Tariffs “have to be absorbed somewhere. And right now they are being partially borne by exporters, partially absorbed by domestic sellers and partially absorbed by consumers.”

    Friday’s jobs data also delivered a jolt, with surprise downward revisions for May and June. “You can get pretty rapid shifts in payrolls from month to month” and Friday’s revisions were “a little startling,” said Pzegeo. Still, “labor markets are roughly in balance” and pointing to a “non-recession” scenario.

    “The market is swinging back into the camp of expecting a rate cut in September” he said. “And rightfully so. The bond market will look through the inflation risk and price in an easier Fed – which should help risky assets, including equities, later in the year.”

    -Vivien Lou Chen

    This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

    (END) Dow Jones Newswires

    08-03-25 1645ET

    Copyright (c) 2025 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

    Continue Reading

  • Financial literacy

    Financial literacy

    Pakistan’s financial markets and investment landscape remain underdeveloped, with significant potential still waiting to be realised. With inflation rising and job markets shrinking, it is critical for the youth to understand and engage with capital markets as a way to build financial independence and long-term security.


    Unfortunately, investment remains a misunderstood and often avoided concept among the younger population. Limited financial awareness, fear of market risk and lack of access to trusted investment platforms keep young people from participating. Most university students graduate without ever learning about stocks, mutual funds, REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts) or portfolio risk management.


    To address this gap, the government, educational institutions and regulators like SECP must collaborate to introduce investment education at the academic level. Workshops, online platforms and practical exposure to stock trading simulations can create a more informed and confident generation of investors.


    Promoting youth participation in the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) and encouraging diversified, long-term investing strategies can mobilise untapped capital while deepening market liquidity. More importantly, it can help secure individual financial futures and contribute to national economic resilience. A forward-looking economy cannot be built without financially literate citizens. It’s time to act.


    Muhammad Nabeel Haider

    Islamabad

     

    Continue Reading