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Category: 3. Business
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EU climate rules risk energy security, warn gas suppliers – Financial Times
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Dollar volatility tumbles as currency markets move past ‘Trump shock’
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Currency markets have moved beyond the “Trump shock” that sparked big gyrations earlier in the year, as measures of dollar volatility tumble to levels last seen before the US presidential election.
Expectations of swings in the dollar’s value against the euro and the yen, which spiked following Donald Trump’s election last November, have fallen this month to their lowest in more than a year, according to indices provided by CME Group.
At the same time the US dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the pound and the euro, has regained some of the year’s sharp losses to trade close to its level before it began to surge in the run-up to Trump’s win.
Investors and analysts say a series of tariff deals with big US trading partners such as the EU and China have sucked volatility out of the market, while the US economy has weathered the onset of tariffs better than many expected. Meanwhile, big central banks are nearing the end of their cycle of interest rate cuts, draining another source of market instability.
“The world is learning to live with Trump,” said Chris Turner, head of markets research at ING. “Investors have learned to deal with headlines with a pinch of salt.”
The dollar strengthened before the US election on a bet — labelled the “Trump trade” — that the Republican’s trade and tax policies would strengthen the world’s biggest economy and its currency.
That unravelled dramatically as Trump’s tariff announcements in April rocked currency markets, with a record nearly $10tn in daily FX volumes that month.
Worries about the domestic economic impact of the trade war as well as concerns over Federal Reserve independence sent the dollar index tumbling to its worst start to the year since the 1970s.
But the dollar has ground higher since the summer, helped by a rally in US stocks that carried Wall Street to record highs before this week’s pullback in tech shares. Some big fund managers argue worries over US assets were overdone.
“For all the talk of the end of US exceptionalism, when you look at the big picture, the dollar has been a strong currency for several years,” said Robert Tipp, head of global bonds at PGIM, suggesting that the dollar’s decline this year represents a “correction in a bull market” rather than “the beginning of the end”.

The collapse in volatility expectations is the market saying “the ‘Trump shock’ is over”, wrote Deutsche Bank’s George Saravelos in a note this week, pointing to easing trade tensions and fiscal policy on “autopilot”.
“What else is there for President Trump to do to shock the market? We are struggling to come up with an answer ourselves.”
A lack of US macroeconomic data due to the country’s longest-ever government shutdown has also dulled volatility in the dollar and US Treasury markets, analysts say.
Investors with limited comprehensive data information about inflation, the labour market and consumer spending have held off from taking big positions. A measure of volatility in the Treasury market — ICE’s Move Index — has fallen to four-year lows since the shutdown began.
The dollar has also received a boost from last month’s Federal Reserve meeting, where the central bank cut rates but warned that the next cut was not a “foregone conclusion”. A slower pace of rate cuts would typically support the currency.
Investors said this showed the currency was now responding to the traditional determinants of currency strength, principally differences in interest rates between countries. “We’ve settled back into more traditional drivers of FX,” said ING’s Turner.
Demand for call options on the dollar, a bet that the currency will strengthen, is outpacing put options by the most since February, according to separate data from CME Group.
Some fund managers said the dollar was regaining its traditional role as a stabiliser in their portfolios, because of its tendency to strengthen in times of global stress: a quality that had been called into question when the currency plunged alongside risky assets following Trump’s April tariff salvo.
The start of the year was “more of an anomaly than the trend”, said Rushabh Amin, a portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments. “We think the dollar will continue to act as a portfolio diversifier going forward, particularly for foreign investors.”
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Assessing AMETEK (AME) Valuation After Recent Share Price Gains
AMETEK (AME) shares have shown stability over the past month, climbing around 9%. Investors might be analyzing recent shifts in investor sentiment and financial performance as they consider whether to buy at current price levels.
See our latest analysis for AMETEK.
Even with a slight dip this week, AMETEK’s recent 1-month share price return of nearly 9.5% hints at renewed investor confidence. While momentum has picked up in the short term, the long-term story is steady. Its five-year total shareholder return sits at an impressive 73%.
If you’re searching for the next compelling opportunity, broaden your perspective and see what stands out among fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.
But with strong recent gains and a track record of solid long-term returns, the big question remains: is AMETEK still undervalued, or have investors already priced in the company’s future growth potential?
With the most widely followed fair value at $216.53 versus a last close of $196.29, investors are eyeing a healthy potential upside. This narrative compares market optimism against foundational business drivers to project where AMETEK’s valuation may go next.
Ongoing successful execution of a disciplined M&A strategy, leveraging a robust acquisition pipeline and significant balance sheet capacity, provides a catalyst for compounding top-line and EPS growth. Integration synergies and operational excellence drive expansion of operating and EBITDA margins.
Read the complete narrative.
Curious about the financial engine fueling this upbeat price target? There’s a surprising mix of steady profit growth, ambitious future earnings multiples, and resilience in margins hiding beneath the surface. Want to see the full blueprint behind these bold assumptions? The key variables may just challenge what you think about AMETEK’s potential.
Result: Fair Value of $216.53 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, persistent weakness in key end markets or unexpected trade disruptions could challenge AMETEK’s current positive valuation outlook and future growth assumptions.
Find out about the key risks to this AMETEK narrative.
Looking at AMETEK’s price-to-earnings ratio provides a more cautious reading. At 30.8x, it is pricier than the industry average of 29.9x and well above our calculated fair ratio of 25.2x. This suggests some valuation risk if the market’s optimism fades. Is there enough growth ahead to justify this premium?
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Goldman Sachs says we’re not in an AI bubble, and its young multimillionaire clientele are all-in on AI-energy investments and healthcare innovations
Last month, more than 100 young wealthy founders, inheritors, and industry leaders flew in from all around the world in the luxe mountain town of Aspen, Colo. At Goldman Sachs’ annual At the Helm event, the bank’s affluent clients dropped and did pushups for a Navy SEAL, unfurled their relationship with wealth guru Sahil Bloom, and strategized legacy with Mindy Kaling. But one of the most buzzy endeavors was addressing the elephant in the room: artificial intelligence.
AI is on everyone’s mind—from the desk worker hand-wringing over their role becoming automated, to the tech CEO trying to keep up with their competitors. It’s a $280 billion industry that’s boosted leaders like Anthropic’s Dario Amodei to billion-dollar net worths, and is completely upending the way we move through our professional and personal lives. So, of course, wealthy clientele attending Goldman Sachs’ annual summit were all ears. The attendees—thirty- and forty-somethings who are members of the bank’s Private Wealth Management (PWM) division, which boasts an average account size of over $75 million—gathered to hash out their anxiety and excitement.
Over the course of the three-day summit, attendees and Goldman leaders talked all things AI—from the most lucrative investments, to the tech’s impact on the environment, and its potential to innovate industries. But alongside discussion of the hottest AI startups and new breakthroughs, Goldman Sachs had to set the record straight on one question. Despite OpenAI’s CEO Sam Altman and Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg drawing comparisons to the dot-com boom, the $238 billion bank said that we’re not in an AI bubble.
“We did have a conversation about markets and whether or not we think we’re in a bubble,” Brittany Boals Moeller, region head of Goldman Sachs’ San Francisco PWM division, tells Fortune. “We do not think we’re in a bubble, and we pay very close attention to that.”
“Will there be some winners and losers from AI? Absolutely. There will definitely be some places where valuations are overblown, and time will tell where those spaces are. So it’s smart for clients to be diligent about how they’re investing in AI.”
How Goldman Sachs’ wealthy clientele are approaching AI
At the Helm attendees had a lot to say about AI. The group, mainly millennials and young Gen Xers, grew up in the internet era and recognize how technology can switch up the status quo. Boals Moeller says the recent AI breakthrough is no different. Clients are clued in on the technology, from how to effectively prompt chatbots, to what companies are making waves.
“This is a group of early adopters, high-energy tech-enabled people, and so the discussion around AI in general was very positive,” she explains. “I’m sure that there are some who have concerns about directionally where it goes. But there were a lot of people who were very excited about the innovation.”
There were a few areas of AI that particularly piqued their interests: the tech’s implications on healthcare, personal productivity, and energy use. In medicine, AI is already being put to good use. The tech can interpret brain scans twice as accurately as professionals examining stroke patients, spot more bone fractures than humans can, and detect early signs of more than 1,000 diseases. And when it comes to productivity, many see boundless opportunities. People are using AI to automate their mundane work responsibilities, plan out vacation getaways, and get through a pile of emails. In the office, McKinsey found that long-term AI use in corporate cases could drive $4.4 trillion in added productivity growth.
All of these complex language models need to be powered, and At the Helm millionaires were well aware of the energy drain. It’s projected that in just three years, more than half of the electricity going to data centers will be used for AI, according to the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. By 2028, AI alone could gobble up the same amount of electricity it takes to power 22% of all U.S. households. Boals Moeller says attendees are concerned about the environment impacts, but also how they can invest in AI-related energy the right way.
“Energy did come up in the context of AI quite a bit as an interesting investment opportunity for clients, and also to balance that with the social issues about energy [as] a finite resource,” Boals Moeller continues, adding that it’s a way to access AI’s value creation from a “tangential” place. “How do we really think about that responsibly relative to the energy needs?”
AI is also undoubtedly one of the biggest investment opportunities of this century. And with Goldman Sachs’ PWM clients boasting anything from $10 million to $1 billion in assets, they’re flush with cash to go all-in on the right opportunity. Nvidia stock has been labeled a “millionaire-maker,” and Adobe’s aggressive adoption of AI tools made it a standout long-term play for investors. The event’s attendees want in on the action, too.
“People were excited to be closer to [the technology],” Boals Moeller says.
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Is ASML (NasdaqGS:ASML) Overvalued After Recent Share Price Momentum? A Fresh Look at Valuation
ASML Holding (NasdaqGS:ASML) continues to attract investor interest, particularly as its recent stock performance reflects broader momentum in the semiconductor sector. Over the past month, shares have gained 9%, signaling renewed confidence ahead of next quarter’s results.
See our latest analysis for ASML Holding.
After an impressive 1-month share price return of 8.6%, ASML Holding is riding a wave of momentum that has been building for much of the past year. With the latest move, its 1-year total shareholder return now stands at over 53%, and the three-year total return sits above 80%. This underscores both short-term excitement and long-term confidence in the company’s prospects as chip demand continues to grow.
If ASML’s sustained gains have caught your attention, this is a great moment to discover See the full list for free.
But with shares trading near all-time highs, the real question now is whether ASML Holding is undervalued, or if the market is already factoring in every bit of the company’s future growth potential, leaving little room for a true buying opportunity.
ASML Holding’s narrative valuation stands just above its recent close, suggesting the stock may be trading a little ahead of its fair value. At a $1,017 share price, this small premium could reflect optimism about the business’s unique technology edge and market dominance, but also means buyers are paying up for those advantages.
“ASML is the only company in the world producing EUV lithography tools. These machines are essential for making the world’s most powerful semiconductors. This gives ASML a near-monopoly in a fast-growing market driven by AI, 5G, and high-performance computing.”
Read the complete narrative.
What assumptions drive that fair value? The narrative hints at market dominance, eye-popping margins, and recurring revenue streams. But does it all add up? The secret sauce behind this premium lies in hard-to-replicate advantages and ambitious long-term projections. See exactly what fuels the conviction behind this price tag.
Result: Fair Value of $1,002.53 (OVERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, challenges such as escalating U.S.-China trade tensions and macroeconomic uncertainty could slow ASML’s growth narrative and spark renewed market volatility.
Find out about the key risks to this ASML Holding narrative.
While the most popular narrative points to a slight overvaluation, our SWS DCF model suggests an even bigger gap. It estimates ASML’s fair value at $762.69 per share, which indicates that the stock is trading well above what future cash flows might justify. Could the market be overlooking risks, or is it simply betting big on long-term growth?
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Santana Minerals (ASX:SMI) Is Up 10.0% After Securing 25-Year Permit for Bendigo-Ophir Gold Project
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In recent days, Santana Minerals Limited was granted a 25-year mining permit for its Bendigo-Ophir Gold Project in Central Otago, New Zealand, giving it full legal rights to extract and process gold from the Rise & Shine and adjacent deposits.
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This development represents a major milestone for the company, with construction poised to begin upon receiving environmental and development approvals, paving the way for potential first gold production.
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We’ll explore how securing these long-term extraction rights could influence Santana Minerals’ overall investment narrative and future growth prospects.
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The recent 25-year mining permit is a defining moment for Santana Minerals, as it provides the legal foundation to progress from explorer to gold producer at its Bendigo-Ophir Gold Project. Before this announcement, the main risks were regulatory hurdles and timing of approvals, which limited near-term visibility even as drilling results pointed to strong resource potential. Now, with the core extraction rights secured, the short-term focus shifts to securing environmental and development consents, a process likely to be closely watched, given its influence on the potential start of construction and future cash flows. This milestone could also accelerate strategic decision-making and shape perceptions on project de-risking, altering both risk and catalyst profiles as the company transitions toward development and, potentially, first gold production. Recent share price moves do seem to reflect the increased optimism around this step.
Yet, despite the permit news, the pace and success of environmental approvals remains a critical piece investors should be aware of.
Santana Minerals’ shares have been on the rise but are still potentially undervalued. Find out how large the opportunity might be.
ASX:SMI Community Fair Values as at Nov 2025 The Simply Wall St Community’s 7 fair value estimates for Santana Minerals range widely from A$0.20 to A$2.02 per share. While many anticipate upside, your view may hinge on how quickly construction and permitting risks resolve in light of the new mining approval. Use these diverse outlooks to see how different market participants weigh the project’s evolving risk and reward profile.
Explore 7 other fair value estimates on Santana Minerals – why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!
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What are Europe’s sovereign cloud/AI ambitions
Investing.com — Europe’s push for data sovereignty and artificial intelligence (AI) self-reliance is accelerating as governments and corporations seek to reduce dependence on U.S. cloud providers.
According to a recent UBS Global Research, the European Union (EU) and its member states are promoting locally controlled digital infrastructure amid rising concerns over data privacy, geopolitical risk and access to computing power.
The brokerage said Amazon, Microsoft and Google together account for more than 80% of Europe’s infrastructure-as-a-service (IaaS) market.
In contrast, sovereign cloud, defined by Gartner as cloud services that ensure data, operational and technological control within European jurisdictions, represented roughly 10% of the market in 2024.
Gartner expects this share to surge to 47% by 2028, expanding at an 86% compound annual growth rate compared with 12% for non-sovereign European IaaS.
UBS noted that while “isolated/managed clouds are 10-20% more expensive to run than “public” cloud,” their adoption may be driven by regulation such as the GDPR, EU Data Act and European Data Governance Act.
The EU’s proposed Cloud and AI Development Act marks a central plank in this strategy. It seeks to triple the bloc’s data centre capacity within five to seven years and mobilize €200 billion in AI investment.
This includes a €20 billion fund to build five AI “gigafactories,” each with more than 100,000 advanced processors, and a €10 billion fund to develop over 13 smaller factories with about a quarter of that capacity.
UBS estimated that “taking the first phase of Stargate’s Abilene project as a template would imply a capital cost of c$6-8bn per gigafactory” based on Nvidia’s H100 GPU architecture, with up to 35% of the capital expenditure potentially subsidized by the EU and member states.
Interest among industry participants has been robust. The European Commission received 76 expressions of interest across 16 member states to host AI gigafactories, with decisions expected by the end of 2025.
German web-hosting firm IONOS confirmed it had applied with construction group HOCHTIEF, stating its proposal aimed to “support large scale AI workloads with a fully sovereign and sustainable ecosystem.”
Deutsche Telekom, Europe’s largest telecom operator, said it plans to partner with SAP, Nvidia and power companies such as RWE, noting, “we are trying to partner with RWE… former coal sites or nuclear power plant sites where we have water and power supply.”
It has already announced a sovereign industrial AI cloud in Munich deploying 10,000 GPUs, an increase of 50% in Germany’s GPU capacity.
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US Taxpayers May See ‘Record Refund Season’ In 2026 Over Trump’s ‘Big Beautiful Bill’, Says Report
Citing a separate note from investment bank Piper Sandler CNBC wrote, “a record tax refund season in 2026,” with middle and upper-income households likely to benefit the most. An estimated $91 billion of tax relief could arrive between February and April 2026, with $59 billion paid via refunds and $32 billion from lower taxes owed, according to the note.
Another report from J.P. Morgan Asset Management in August also predicted higher tax refunds for some filers based on IRS tax withholding tables staying the same, as per CNBC.
On July 1, the US Senate passed US President Donald Trump’s tax and spending bill. The package, informally known as the “One Big Beautiful Bill”, consists of $4.5 trillion in tax cuts and $1.2 trillion in spending cuts. It also in entirety includes president’s legislative agenda in a single package, reported Bloomberg.
The tax cut bill would avoid large tax increase for individuals at the beginning of next year when the 2,817 Trump tax cuts expire. It would also permanently extend some partly expired business tax breaks this according to the president would contribute to economic growth.
Additionally, the bill, at President Trump’s request, adds new tax breaks from tips, car loans and overtime work. It also expands the tax breaks for parents and seniors.
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, or the Big Beautiful Bill, is a statute passed by the 119th United States Congress containing tax and spending policies that form the core of US President Donald Trump’s second-term agenda.
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FirstRand’s (JSE:FSR) investors will be pleased with their impressive 131% return over the last five years
If you want to compound wealth in the stock market, you can do so by buying an index fund. But the truth is, you can make significant gains if you buy good quality businesses at the right price. For example, the FirstRand Limited (JSE:FSR) share price is 71% higher than it was five years ago, which is more than the market average. Over the last year the stock price is up, albeit only a modest 2.0%.
With that in mind, it’s worth seeing if the company’s underlying fundamentals have been the driver of long term performance, or if there are some discrepancies.
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There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
Over half a decade, FirstRand managed to grow its earnings per share at 20% a year. The EPS growth is more impressive than the yearly share price gain of 11% over the same period. So it seems the market isn’t so enthusiastic about the stock these days. The reasonably low P/E ratio of 10.72 also suggests market apprehension.
The company’s earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
JSE:FSR Earnings Per Share Growth November 9th 2025 Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here.
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of FirstRand, it has a TSR of 131% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
FirstRand shareholders are up 8.4% for the year (even including dividends). Unfortunately this falls short of the market return. It’s probably a good sign that the company has an even better long term track record, having provided shareholders with an annual TSR of 18% over five years. It’s quite possible the business continues to execute with prowess, even as the share price gains are slowing. It’s always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand FirstRand better, we need to consider many other factors. For example, we’ve discovered 1 warning sign for FirstRand that you should be aware of before investing here.
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J Sainsbury plc (LON:SBRY) Looks Interesting, And It’s About To Pay A Dividend
It looks like J Sainsbury plc (LON:SBRY) is about to go ex-dividend in the next 3 days. The ex-dividend date is two business days before a company’s record date in most cases, which is the date on which the company determines which shareholders are entitled to receive a dividend. The ex-dividend date is of consequence because whenever a stock is bought or sold, the trade can take two business days or more to settle. Therefore, if you purchase J Sainsbury’s shares on or after the 13th of November, you won’t be eligible to receive the dividend, when it is paid on the 19th of December.
The company’s next dividend payment will be UK£0.151 per share, on the back of last year when the company paid a total of UK£0.14 to shareholders. Last year’s total dividend payments show that J Sainsbury has a trailing yield of 3.9% on the current share price of UK£3.492. Dividends are an important source of income to many shareholders, but the health of the business is crucial to maintaining those dividends. We need to see whether the dividend is covered by earnings and if it’s growing.
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If a company pays out more in dividends than it earned, then the dividend might become unsustainable – hardly an ideal situation. Its dividend payout ratio is 75% of profit, which means the company is paying out a majority of its earnings. The relatively limited profit reinvestment could slow the rate of future earnings growth. We’d be worried about the risk of a drop in earnings. Yet cash flow is typically more important than profit for assessing dividend sustainability, so we should always check if the company generated enough cash to afford its dividend. Fortunately, it paid out only 28% of its free cash flow in the past year.
It’s positive to see that J Sainsbury’s dividend is covered by both profits and cash flow, since this is generally a sign that the dividend is sustainable, and a lower payout ratio usually suggests a greater margin of safety before the dividend gets cut.
View our latest analysis for J Sainsbury
Click here to see the company’s payout ratio, plus analyst estimates of its future dividends.
LSE:SBRY Historic Dividend November 9th 2025 Companies with consistently growing earnings per share generally make the best dividend stocks, as they usually find it easier to grow dividends per share. If earnings fall far enough, the company could be forced to cut its dividend. That’s why it’s comforting to see J Sainsbury’s earnings have been skyrocketing, up 26% per annum for the past five years. Earnings per share are growing at a rapid rate, yet the company is paying out more than three-quarters of its earnings.
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