Category: 3. Business

  • Journal of Medical Internet Research

    Journal of Medical Internet Research

    Physical activity is associated with numerous benefits among older people [-] and is a key recommendation for promoting healthy aging []. Advancing age is associated with increasing diversity and variability across a wide range of biological, physiological, functional, and performance measures—an expression of the growing disparity between biological and chronological age which typifies aging [,]. Accordingly, the effectiveness of current exercise (structured, purposeful physical activity) guidelines [,], which adopt a “one-size-fits-all” approach, is questionable, with protagonists emphasizing the need for a personalized approach [].

    An additional limitation of current guidelines is the lack of detailed attention concerning fitness components other than cardiovascular fitness [,]. While guidelines specify the duration, intensity, and frequency of aerobic exercise, minimal guidance exists concerning optimizing balance, strength, and flexibility—all crucial factors for preserving functional integrity with advancing age. In particular, the absence of accurate individualized assessments of these components outside a laboratory setting hinders the transition from generalized to personalized exercise programs for older adults.

    The potential contribution of artificial intelligence in shaping personalized medicine is of current interest, including the promotion of personalized physical activity [,]. Nonetheless, it remains a fact that current physical activity guidelines are manually formulated, generic, and focus on group rather than personalized exercises.

    To address these limitations, we developed a novel home-based approach to personalized exercise programs for older adults, utilizing a simple smartphone that obviates the need for a laboratory or professional intervention. Through smartphone accelerometer and gyroscope sensors, we remotely assess key components of motor fitness, including balance, flexibility, and strength. Based on these assessments, a machine learning–generated personalized exercise program, tailored to each individual’s needs, was delivered via video directly on the smartphone.

    We previously described the design, development, validation, and pilot study results [-]. Briefly, an interdisciplinary expert panel selected motor components and standard movement tests for remote fitness assessment. These were incorporated into a user-friendly smartphone app, which provided simple audiovisual instructions for self-testing, recorded the test results, and uploaded the raw data to a remote study database, where machine learning was used to create a unique fitness profile for each participant. In order to create personalized exercise programs, we developed a collection of exercises specifically designed for older adults, spanning the different movement abilities (balance, flexibility, and strength) and graded according to difficulty. According to the participants’ unique fitness profile, a tailored selection of exercises was chosen using machine learning, uploaded to the app, and remotely delivered to the study participant via the study app. With repeated fitness testing and ongoing data collection, the precision of machine learning for matching fitness profile to tailored exercise programs is constantly improving.

    In this study, we tested the implementation of our approach in a randomized controlled trial. Our objective was to investigate the effectiveness of an 8-week, remotely delivered personalized exercise program based on individual fitness assessments, compared to either WHO general guidelines (active-control) or no intervention (control). We hypothesized that participants in the personalized experimental group would show greater improvements in balance, flexibility, and strength than those in the active-control and control groups. Specifically, we anticipated a reduction in body sway during balance tests, an increased range of motion in flexibility, and faster lifts of the body or arms in strength. The real-life implications and subsequent benefits of improvements across this range of motor fitness components are notable. Thus, for example, well-established evidence highlights that balance improvement is critical for fall prevention [,,], while flexibility [,] and strength [,] are essential for performing activities of daily living.

    Study Design

    A randomized controlled trial was conducted, with participants randomly assigned to three groups: (1) experimental group (personalized exercise); (2) active-control group (World Health Organization [WHO] general exercise guidelines); and (3) control group (no intervention).

    Sample Size Predetermination

    Based on a statistical power analysis using G*Power [], our target was to enroll 300 participants, with 100 in each of the 3 treatment groups (see more details in our protocol paper []). However, to maintain methodological rigor, we later conducted a more precise power analysis based on the actual number of participants included in the statistical analyses (see Results section).

    Participants

    The study was conducted in a community setting (private homes and independent living facilities) in central and northern Israel, including both urban and agricultural settlements. Recruitment included local flyers and lectures delivered by the principal investigator in community clubs, senior centers, cultural centers, or other local gathering places. Participant enrollment was carried out by the study team, which consisted of 6 testers and a study manager.

    From a total of 317 volunteers, 239 community-dwelling, healthy older adults (155 women), aged 72.63 (SD 5.38) years, completed the 8-week study intervention, and 230 completed the full 12-week follow-up. Inclusion criteria were (1) age 65+ years, (2) independent living, (3) independent walking, (4) fluent in Hebrew, and (5) smartphone competency. Exclusion criteria included (1) cognitive impairment (Mini-Cog score <3) [], (2) any hospitalization (>24 h) or emergency room visit within past year for cardiac (heart failure, rhythm disorder, ischemia, valvular disease) or neurological conditions (dizziness, cerebrovascular, vestibular, progressive diseases affecting gait or balance), and (3) high fall risk (≥1 positive answer from 3-item test), validated in community-based exercise intervention and fall-prevention studies []. Data collection included demographics, self-reported habitual physical activity, depression status (Geriatric Depression Scale) [], and frailty index [].

    Ethical Considerations

    The study design, procedures, and informed consent were approved by the Hadassah Hebrew University Hospital Ethics Committee, Jerusalem, Israel (Trial ID 0074‐19-HMO), and were conducted according to the ethical standards of the Helsinki Declaration.

    Informed Consent

    Written informed consent was attained following a detailed explanation given by the study physician and included instructions on how to act in case of any possible medical complications arising either directly (eg, risk of falls and fractures, musculoskeletal pains, strained ligaments) or secondary to the exercise programs (eg, cardiac arrhythmias or angina). Participants were informed of their freedom to opt out.

    Privacy and Confidentiality

    Each participant was assigned a unique study identification number. The key linking these numbers to participant identities was stored separately by the principal investigator. All data were subsequently deidentified.

    Compensation Details

    Participants did not receive any compensation.

    Randomization

    We used a permuted block design [] with 2 stratification factors (age: 65‐74 and 75+ years; gender: men and women), each block included 6 participants, 2 per group. Block distribution was adjusted using the minimization principle [] in order to address randomization imbalance. More specifically, as there were 6 testers, and each tester had his or her randomization table. This process was supervised by an advanced student (EB).

    At a certain point, we realized that few testers had the first participants on the control group, and the control group became a lot larger than the other groups. Based on the minimization principle, we changed the block distribution to 2 experimental, 2 active-control, and only 1 control (5 participants in a block).

    Outcome Measures

    The motor components chosen for remote fitness assessment were postural control (stability) while standing (static balance) or moving (dynamic balance), strength (muscle endurance) of upper and lower body, and range of motion of upper body (flexibility). The following standard movement performance tests were selected to assess these components:

    1. Static balance: Leg stance (single leg stance left and right) for 10 seconds.
    2. Static balance: Tandem stance—one foot directly in front of the other (left foot forward and right foot forward) for 20 seconds.
    3. Dynamic balance: Tandem walk forward (10 steps) and tandem walk backward (10 steps).
    4. Upper body flexibility (torso rotation): Seated position, holding a ball between thighs and baton in hands in front of chest for stabilization []; maximal torso rotation to left and right.
    5. Upper body flexibility (arm flexion): Seated position, armless chair, back against wall; lifting straight arm (right and left separately) forward and up, trying to reach the ear.
    6. Upper body flexibility (arm extension): Standing position, face towards wall, all front body against wall; lifting straight arm (right and left separately) backward as far as possible.
    7. Upper body strength (arm strength): Seated position on an armless chair, a 0.5 kg weight for women and 1 kg for men attached to wrist; lifting straight arm (left and right separately) forward up to shoulder height as fast as possible 20 times and to the side 20 times.
    8. Lower body strength (sit-to-stand): From sitting position, hands on waist, stand and sit 10 repetitions.

    Instructions were incorporated into a smartphone app developed by Montfort Brain Monitor Ltd. Movement was captured by smartphone accelerometer and gyroscope sensors by attaching the mobile phone to the relevant body part using a simple band (see : tandem walk forward, arm flexion, arm extension, arm strength).

    Figure 1. Examples of phone placement in tandem forward, arm flexion, arm extension, and arm strength.

    Digital Markers

    The specific digital markers (DMs) generated from the phone for each test are as follows:

    • Balance tests (Tests 1‐3): Five DMs that assess body sway, with lower scores indicating less sway and better performance:
      1. Average linear acceleration (m/s²), generated by the accelerometer in the mediolateral direction.
      2. Average linear acceleration (m/s²), generated by the accelerometer in the anterior-posterior direction.
      3. Angular (radial) velocity, assessed in radians per second (rad/s), generated by the gyroscope in the mediolateral direction.
      4. Angular (radial) velocity, assessed in radians per second (rad/s), generated by the gyroscope in the anterior-posterior direction.
      5. Angular (radial) velocity, assessed in radians per second (rad/s), generated by the gyroscope in the superior-inferior direction.
    • Torso rotation (Test 4): The angle (peak pitch) in the superior-inferior direction. A greater angle indicates a larger range of motion and better performance.
    • Arm flexion (Test 5): The angle between the arm and the horizon (peak yaw in the anterior-posterior direction).
    • Arm extension (Test 6): The angle between the arm and the horizon (peak yaw in the anterior-posterior direction). A greater angle indicates a larger range of motion and better performance.
    • Arm strength (Test 7): Average duration for 20 repetitions, measured in seconds. A shorter duration indicates better performance.
    • Sit-to-stand (Test 8): Average duration for each repetition, measured in seconds. A shorter duration indicates better performance.

    Detailed information and graphical demonstrations of the DMs have been previously published [,].

    Study Procedure

    Data collection started in November 2020 and ended in September 2023. Following informed consent, demographic/clinical data collection, and randomization, baseline fitness (T0) was assessed using the study app. Fitness levels across the study measures were determined (low versus high), and assessment was repeated at 4 weeks (T1), 8 weeks (T2), and 12 weeks (follow-up T3). The assessment was conducted by 6 qualified physical activity teachers, each trained to use the app for testing participants individually and supervised by the study manager, a senior physical activity teacher. The app was installed on the teachers’ (testers’) smartphones, and the test results were automatically streamed to the database. All study participants (the personalized exercise group, the active-control group, and the control group) were tested. The testers and participants were blinded to the test results. Participants received weekly phone calls from the teachers to maintain contact and motivation. There were no issues of safety or other issues reported.

    Intervention Groups

    Personalized Exercise (Experimental Group)

    Participants in the experimental group received their personalized exercise program based on their fitness assessment. The personalized program, including clear instructions regarding the performance of the exercises, was delivered to the participants’ personal smartphones immediately after the testing. The testers explained to the participants, on an individual basis, how to use the app on their personal smartphones for exercising. Following our pilot study [], and according to evidence concerning the advantages of exercising >3×/week [,], we instructed participants to exercise 5×/week for 8 weeks. Their video exercise program covered three target categories: (1) balance and lower body, (2) upper body flexibility, and (3) upper body strength exercises. Two difficulty levels, A (simple) and B (advanced), were matched according to fitness assessment. For an example of exercise displayed on a smartphone, please see . Additional examples have been described previously [].

    Figure 2. Practicing at home with the exercise displayed on the phone.
    General Exercise (Active Control Group)

    Participants were individually counseled and advised to exercise for 8 weeks according to official WHO guidelines []. Specifically, they were asked to perform leisure-type aerobic exercise for 150‐300 minutes or vigorous-intensity exercise for 75‐150 minutes/week. Examples such as walking, jogging, and cycling were given. In addition, they were asked to perform ≥3 sessions/week of multicomponent physical activity that emphasizes functional balance and strength training at moderate or greater intensity. They received the following examples of balance exercises: standing on toes, one-leg stance, walking while lifting the knee, walking backward, and side walking while bending and extending the knees. Examples of strength exercises included the following: (1) in a standing position—lifting the leg to the side (abduction), extending a straight leg backward, lifting a straight leg forward, sit-to-stand movements—and (2) against a wall—pushing the body away from the wall using the hands, lifting the arms to the side, optionally with dumbbells.

    Control Group

    Participants were advised to continue their normal routine. A personalized exercise program was offered after study completion.

    Matching Fitness Level With Exercise Prescription for the Personalized Exercise Group—A Machine Learning Approach

    Data from the pilot study [] served as a baseline for large-scale data collection, and the baseline (T0) fitness level of participants in the current study (low or high) was determined using machine learning principles. Based on the fitness level, the app determined the appropriate level of exercise difficulty (A or B) for each fitness component. For example, a participant in the personalized exercise group might have been assigned level A for balance exercises, level B for flexibility, and level B for strength. illustrates an example of a study participant’s unique fitness profile, based on the DMs, graphically displayed alongside the average profile for the entire study sample. Repeated fitness assessments at 4 weeks (T1) allowed for the personalized exercise program to be adjusted according to the updated DMs.

    Figure 3. A participant’s unique fitness profile graphically displayed alongside the average profile. AP: anterior-posterior; ML: mediolateral.

    Data Transformation

    For comparability reasons due to different units of measurement, we transformed the DM data into normalized (z) scores. For balance measures, we calculated the mean of the 5 generated DM scores to one for each balance test. Results are presented as z scores.

    Adherence to Program Recommendations: Adherers and Nonadherers in the Personalized Exercise Group—Post Hoc Distribution

    Since participants needed to access the study app in order to watch and perform exercise videos, it was therefore possible to determine the actual and accurate measurement of adherence. Although they were instructed to exercise 5×/week, the actual adherence varied. To explore whether adherence influenced improvements, we conducted an exploratory analysis categorizing participants as adherers or nonadherers. The following cutoff points, along with their rationale, were examined:

    • Stage 1: ≥3 sessions/week versus <3 sessions/week (based on official recommendations, whereby 3 sessions/week is considered optimal) [].
    • Stage 2: ≥2.45 sessions/week versus <2.45 sessions/week (the median adherence score).
    • Stage 3: ≥2 sessions/week versus <2 sessions/week (a lower threshold to determine the minimum frequency needed for fitness improvements).
    • Stage 4: ≥1.5 sessions/week versus <1.5 sessions/week (an even lower threshold to determine the minimum frequency needed for fitness improvements).

    A consistent trend favoring adherers over nonadherers emerged across all cutoff points (see ). The most notable differences were observed with the ≥2 sessions/week versus <2 sessions/week and ≥1.5 sessions/week versus <1.5 sessions/week cutoffs.

    Ultimately, we selected 1.5 sessions/week as the final cut-off for two reasons:

    1. This frequency suggested that significant improvements in balance, flexibility, and strength could be achieved with as few as 1.5 tailored exercise sessions per week.
    2. It served as a criterion for distinguishing nonexercisers while still retaining a sizable proportion of participants (71.7%; see ) in the personalized exercise group.

    Subsequently, we conducted statistical analyses using four groups: (1) personalized exercise adherers (n=66), (2) personalized exercise nonadherers (n=26), (3) general guidelines exercise (active-control; n=80), and (4) control (n=67).

    Statistical Analyses

    We applied statistical analyses to the 3-time measurements during the intervention period, T0, T1, and T2, and examined whether improvements observed after 8 weeks (T2) were maintained at 12-week follow-up (T3). Specifically, a mixed repeated measures ANOVA (3 test dates×4 groups) was conducted for each fitness component, and Eta squared (η²) was calculated to assess the effect size. Fisher LSD was used for pairwise post hoc analyses, and Cohen d coefficients were calculated to reveal the standardized differences between means when effects reached a significance level (P<.05).

    To examine whether improvements were maintained at T3, we examined participants from the general group and personalized adherers who demonstrated improvement from T0 to T2 (between the baseline and the end of the 8-week intervention period). Improvement was defined as a change of ≥0.12 in z score (zT2-zT0), corresponding to the 55th percentile with normal distribution. More specifically, individuals with T2-T0 z scores ≥0.12 were considered “improvers.” Two-way ANOVA (2 test dates×2 groups) with repeated measures was applied on the outcome measures.

    Attrition Rate (Percentage of Remaining Participants in Each Group)

    Due to incomplete compliance during 1 or more measurements, or failure to upload measurements due to poor internet connectivity, specific data points for certain individuals were excluded. Additionally, scores greater than 2.5 SDs from the raw data means were omitted. As a result, the number of participants in each ANOVA (assessing the effect of the intervention on each fitness component) ranged from 189 to 231. The participation rate (%) for each group was calculated for the main outcomes (see ). χ² analyses revealed no significant differences. The power calculation was based on a sample size of n=189.

    Participants

    illustrates the participant flowchart across the 3 original study groups. Of those who completed the 12 weeks, 90 were from the personalized exercise group, 78 from the general exercise group, and 62 from the control group.

    Figure 4. Participants’ flowchart.

    presents baseline data.

    Table 1. Baseline characteristics.
    Personalized exercise (n=92) General exercise (n=80) Control (n=67)
    Female, n (%) 55 (59.7) 57 (71.3) 43 (64.2)
    Male, n (%) 37 (40.2) 23 (28.8) 24 (35.8)
    Age (y), mean (SD) 72.37 (5.01) 72.80 (5.58) 72.78 (5.70)
    Height (cm)
    Female, mean (SD) 161.92 (5.68) 160.84 (6.20) 161.90 (5.64)
    Male, mean (SD) 172.22 (6.00) 173.48 (5.16) 175.22 (4.30)
    Weight (kg)
    Female, mean (SD) 68.42 (10.73) 69.65 (12.93) 69.02 (10.00)
    Male, mean (SD) 78.97 (12.68) 83.3 (10.75) 80.17 (6.34)
    Working
    No, n (%) 36 (39.1) 26 (35.6) 31 (47.7)
    Yes, n (%) 29 (31.5) 21 (28.8) 20 (30.8)
    Volunteer, n (%) 23 (25.0) 26 (35.6) 14 (21.5)
    Married/living with a partner, n (%) 66 (71.7) 53 (66.3) 47 (70.1)
    Don’t smoke, n (%) 86 (93.5) 73 (91.3) 63 (94.0)
    Score 0 on Short GDS, n (%) 89 (96.7) 78 (97.5) 62 (96.9)
    Frailty (out of 41 deficits), mean (SD) 2.85 (1.92) 3.64 (2.14) 3.13 (2.08)
    Engaged in physical activity during the last 7 d, n (%) 79 (85.9) 61 (76.3) 56 (83.6)
    Aerobic activity in the last 7 d (min), mean (SD) 227.28 (247.04) 173.63 (185.08) 232.84 (227.19)
    Other exercise in the last 7 d (min), mean (SD) 87.22 (98.07) 76.50 (89.73) 77.46 (115.80)
    Total exercise last 7 d (min), mean (SD) 314.51 (256.86) 250.13 (212.59) 310.30 (275.55)
    Sedentary time during 1 d (h), mean (SD) 6.58 (4.26) 5.69 (3.41) 6.82 (4.57)
    Active in the last 7 d (1‐5 scale), mean (SD) 4.03 (0.93) 4.04 (0.91) 4.30 (0.65)

    aGDS: Geriatric Depression Scale.

    bP<.05

    Power Analysis Based on the Post Hoc Distribution (Four Groups)

    We used G*Power [] to perform power analysis for a 2-way ANOVA (3 test dates×4 groups) with repeated measures on the outcome measures. Our sample (n=189) provided 91% statistical power to find an interaction with small effect (Cohen f=0.1), 91% power to find group differences of moderate effect (Cohen f=0.25), and 97% power to find within measurements differences of small effect (Cohen f=0.1). All power analyses used a correlation of 0.685 among repeated measures because, among all our primary outcomes, this was the lowest (the highest was 0.856) and thus the most conservative value to use.

    Results of the Statistical Analyses

    describes the main results. Group×time interaction was significant for dynamic balance (mean tandem walk forward and backward, F6,404=3.232, P=.004, η2=0.046; ). Pairwise analyses indicated significant improvements among personalized exercise adherers (Adherers) from T0 to T2 (Mdiff0,2=0.228, P=.002, d=0.404) and group differences in favor of the Adherers in T2 (Mgrp1,3=−0.357, P=.02, d=0.456; Mgrp1,4=−0.383, P=.01, d=0.474; ). The interaction on static balance (mean of leg stance and tandem stance) was not significant, but group differences favored the Adherers at T1 (Mgrp1,3=−0.375, P=.01, d=0.430; Mgrp1,4=−0.361, P=.02, d=0.446; ).

    Group×time interactions were revealed on both arm flexion (mean right and left, F6,448=2.527, P=.02, η2=0.033) and arm extension (mean right and left, F6,450=2.753, P=.01, η2=0.035; ). Follow-up pairwise analyses indicated significant improvement in the Adherers on arm flexion (left and right) from T0 to T2 (Mdiff0,2=−0.227, P=.007, d=0.356) and on arm extension (left and right) from T0 to T1 (Mdiff0,1=−0.221, P=.02, d=0.302) and from T0 to T2 (Mdiff0,2=−0.210, P=.03, d=0.290; ).

    Group×time interaction was also indicated on arm strength total (mean of lifting right arm forward, left arm forward, left arm to the side, and right arm to the side; F6,424=2.394, P=.03, η2=0.033; ). Follow-up pairwise analyses indicated significant improvement among the Adherers on arm strength total from T0 to T1 (Mdiff0,1=0.228, P=.008, d=0.438) and from T0 to T2 (Mdiff0,2=0.217, P=.008, d=0.384; ).

    Figure 5. z scores of (A) dynamic and static balance, (B) arm flexion and extension, and (C) arm strength. Ctrl: control.

    More results are presented in the tables below. Regarding balance, group×time interactions were significant for tandem stance left (left foot forward, η2=0.033), tandem walk forward (η2=0.039), tandem walk backward (η2=0.034), and balance total (mean of all balance scores, η2=0.040; ). Pairwise analyses indicated improvements (time differences) only in the Adherers from T0 to T2 (Mdiff0,2=0.163, P=.009, d=0.259), with group differences favoring the Adherers at T1 (Mgrp1,3=0.344, P=.007, d=0.470) and at T2 (Mgrp1,3=0.399, P=.003, d=0.520, Mgrp1,4=0.347, P=.01, d=0.480; ).

    Regarding flexibility, group×time interactions were revealed on right arm flexion (η2=0.038), right arm extension (η2=0.032), left arm (mean flexion and extension, η2=0.035), and right arm (mean flexion and extension, η2=0.054; ). Pairwise analyses indicated significant improvements only among the Adherers on right arm flexion from T0 to T2 (Mdiff0,2=−0.321, P=.002, d=0.425), on right arm extension from T0 to T1 (Mdiff0,1=−0.264, P=.02, d=0.293), and from T0 to T2 (Mdiff0,2=−0.262 , P=.03, d=0.309), on right arm (mean flexion and extension) from T0 to T1 (Mdiff0,1=−0.205, P=.008, d=0.341) and from T0 to T2 (Mdiff0,2=−0.283, P<.001, d=0.625), and on left arm (mean flexion and extension) from T0 to T1 (Mdiff0,1=−0.192, P=.009, d=0.359; ). No change was observed on torso rotation ().

    Table 2. z scores of T0 (baseline), T1 (4 wk), and T2 (8 wk) balance measures.
    Personalized exercise adherers (1) Personalized exercise nonadherers (2) General activity (3) Control (4) F Time (df) F Group (df) F Interaction (df)
    Left leg stance, mean (SD) 0.65 (2, 336) 1.91 (3, 168) 1.24 (6, 336)
    T0 −0.189 (0.914) −0.469 (0.419) −0.136 (0.719) 0.221 (1.089)
    T1 −0.161 (0.892) −0.150 (0.670) 0.064 (1.006) 0.020 (0.968)
    T2 −0.218 (0.762) −0.205 (0.837) 0.009 (0.830) 0.087 (1.096)
    Right leg stance, mean (SD) 0.27 (2, 340) 3.54 (3, 170) 0.55 (6, 340)
    T0 −0.193 (0.762) −0.386 (0.678) 0.031 (0.889) 0.012 (0.935)
    T1 −0.251 (0.590) −0.288 (0.721) 0.079 (1.049) 0.136 (1.084)
    T2 −0.313 (0.585) −0.346 (0.542) 0.015 (0.853) 0.192 (1.108)
    Tandem stance left, mean (SD) 1.01 (2, 404) 2.91 (3, 202) 2.32 (6, 404)
    T0 −0.119 (0.708) −0.019 (1.053) −0.100 (0.746) 0.181 (1.069)
    T1 −0.366, (0.599) −0.159 (0.816) 0.062 (0.842) 0.179 (0.987)
    T2 −0.255 (0.792) 0.115 (1.208) 0.107, (0.967) 0.084 (0.781)
    Tandem stance right, mean (SD) 0.19 (2, 380) 1.22 (3, 190) 1.04 (6, 380)
    T0 −0.030 (0.806) −0.092 (1.020) −0.164 (0.779) 0.134 (0.929)
    T1 −0.184 (0.990) −0.215 (0.756) 0.041 (0.940) 0.120 (0.886)
    T2 −0.131 (0.975) 0.001 (1.209) −0.061 (0.838) 0.128 (0.725)
    Tandem walk forward, mean (SD) 0.13 (2, 380) 1.05 (3, 190) 2.56 (6, 380)
    T0 −0.009 (0.875) −0.111 (0.941) 0.037 (0.924) 0.082 (0.899)
    T1 −0.118 (0.809) −0.023 (0.981) 0.164 (0.929) −0.035 (0.925)
    T2 −0.266, (0.704) −0.083 (0.962) 0.146 (0.948) 0.105 (0.873)
    Tandem walk backward, mean (SD) 0.01 (2, 382) 0.85 (3, 191) 2.21 (6, 382)
    T0 −0.007 (0.750) 0.064 (1.092) 0.033 (0.844) −0.033 (0.920)
    T1 −0.143 (0.881) 0.030 (0.837) 0.191 (0.915) 0.011 (0.841)
    T2 −0.162 (0.810) −0.068 (1.002) 0.143 (0.856) 0.176, (0.985)
    Leg stance (L+R), mean (SD) 0.04 (2, 370) 2.66 (3, 185) 0.54 (6, 370)
    T0 −0.138 (0.776) −0.259 (0.786) 0.093 (0.899) 0.245 (1.019)
    T1 −0.148 (0.758) −0.155 (0.600) 0.149 (0.993) 0.133 (0.948)
    T2 −0.231 (0.687) −0.110 (0.905) 0.080 (0.878) 0.176 (0.986)
    Tandem stance (L+R), mean (SD) 0.30 (2, 420) 2.00 (3, 210) 2.11 (6, 420)
    T0 −0.022 (0.725) 0.008 (0.916) −0.048 (0.772) 0.218 (1.000)
    T1 −0.214, (0.760) −0.092 (0.830) 0.101 (0.822) 0.262 (0.961)
    T2 −0.143 (0.933) 0.115 (1.099) 0.096 (0.872) 0.150 (0.741)
    Balance total, mean (SD) 0.51 (2, 432) 2.11 (3, 216) 3.03 (6, 432)
    T0 −0.019 (0.641) −0.010 (0.786) 0.102 (0.783) 0.128 (0.801)
    T1 −0.123, (0.642) 0.068 (0.719) 0.221, (0.795) 0.120 (0.732)
    T2 -0.182, (0.712) 0.132 (0.921) 0.217, (0.811) 0.165 (0.721)

    aAdherers: ≥1.5/wk

    bNonadherers: <1.5/wk

    cDifferences between groups (P<.05).

    dP<.05.

    eDifferences between groups (P<.01).

    fDifferences between T0 and T1 (P<.05).

    gDifferences between T0 and T2 (P<.05).

    hDifferences between T0 and T2 (P<.01).

    iP=.05.

    Table 3. z scores of T0 (baseline), T1 (4 wk), and T2 (8 wk) flexibility measures.
    Personalized exercise adherers (1) Personalized exercise nonadherers (2) General activity (3) Control (4) F Time (df) F Group (df) F Interaction (df)
    Left arm flexion, mean (SD) 0.29 (2, 434) 0.09 (3, 217) 1.30 (6, 434)
    T0 –0.132 (0.959) –0.115 (1.031) 0.052 (0.990) 0.074 (1.005)
    T1 0.026 (0.978) –0.091 (0.929) –0.066 (0.982) 0.007 (1.000)
    T2 0.032 (0.968) –0.032 (0.959) 0.059 (1.088) –0.032 (0.870)
    Right arm flexion, mean (SD) 0.08 (2, 420) 0.07 (3, 210) 2.78 (6, 420)
    T0 –0.175 (0.946) –0.009 (0.887) 0.067 (0.899) 0.062 (1.160)
    T1 –0.054 (0.976) –0.063 (0.985) 0.002 (0.963) 0.018 (1.023)
    T2 0.146, (1.059) –0.035 (1.080) 0.025 (1.014) –0.145 (0.909)
    Left arm extension, mean (SD) 0.01 (2, 434) 0.99 (3, 217) 1.95 (6, 434)
    T0 –0.001 (0.989) 0.039 (1.036) 0.013 (0.99) –0.021 (1.029)
    T1 0.138 (0.963) 0.168 (0.845) 0.050 (0.932) –0.315, (1.029)
    T2 0.117 (0.883) 0.105 (0.959) –0.044 (1.055) –0.129 (0.883)
    Right arm extension, mean (SD) 0.27 (2, 432) 0.51 (3, 216) 2.40 (6, 432)
    T0 –0.122 (1.004) 0.156 (0.768) 0.068 (1.025) –0.037 (1.007)
    T1 0.142 (0.970) 0.239 (0.871) –0.032 (1.054) –0.193 (0.978)
    T2 0.141 (0.912) –0.064 (1.010) –0.022 (1.002) –0.083 (1.036)
    Left arm (flex+ext), mean (SD) 0.15 (2, 454) 0.49 (3, 227) 2.78 (6, 454)
    T0 –0.046 (0.728) 0.009 (0.826) 0.023 (0.765) 0.029 (0.747)
    T1 0.145, (0.682) 0.031 (0.600) 0.006 (0.750) –0.155, (0.810)
    T2 0.088 (0.740) 0.097 (0.721) 0.009 (0.817) –0.098 (0.714)
    Right arm (flex+ext), mean (SD) 0.11 (2, 448) 0.13 (3, 224) 4.29 (6, 448)
    T0 –0.168 (0.743) 0.083 (0.646) 0.086 (0.767) 0.024 (0.732)
    T1 0.037 (0.726) 0.088 (0.644) –0.038 (0.780) –0.075 (0.708)
    T2 0.115 (0.666) –0.049 (0.772) –0.029 (0.836) –0.087 (0.590)
    Torso rotation left, mean (SD) 0.26 (2, 440) 0.32 (3, 220) 0.77 (6, 440)
    T0 –0.145 (1.045) 0.018 (1.114) 0.007 (1.038) 0.082 (0.872)
    T1 –0.064 (0.994) –0.111 (1.061) 0.023 (1.038) –0.013 (0.930)
    T2 –0.109 (0.986) –0.099 (1.088) 0.071 (1.019) –0.018 (0.930)
    Torso rotation right, mean (SD) 0.27 (2, 440) 0.51 (3, 220) 1.54 (6, 440)
    T0 0.063 (1.133) 0.037 (0.929) –0.078 (0.999) 0.036 (0.874)
    T1 0.189 (1.030) –0.231 (0.940) –0.139 (0.982) 0.068 (1.041)
    T2 0.074 (1.094) 0.002 (1.042) 0.018 (1.003) –0.069 (0.087)

    aAdherers: ≥1.5/wk

    bNonadherers: <1.5/wk

    cP<.05.

    dDifferences between T0 and T2 (P<.05).

    eDifferences between T1 and T2 (P<.05).

    fDifferences between groups (P<.05).

    gDifferences between T0 and T1 (P<.01).

    hDifferences between T0 and T1 (P<.05).

    iDifferences between T1 and T2 (P=.05).

    jP<.01.

    kDifferences between T0 and T2 (P<.01).

    Concerning arm strength, a group×time interaction was observed for lifting right arm to the side (η2=0.034; ). Specific improvements were noted in the Adherers from T0 to T1 (Mdiff0,1=0.247, P=.02, d=0.395) and from T0 to T2 (Mdiff0,2=0.213, P=.02, d=0.327; ). Pairwise differences were observed for arm strength variables, although no interactions were found: the Adherers improved on right arm forward from T0 to T1 (Mdiff0,1=0.271, P=.006, d=0.444) and from T0 to T2 (Mdiff0,2=0.308, P=.002, d=0.466), on left arm forward from T0 to T1 (Mdiff0,1=−0.215, P=.03, d=0.332) and from T0 to T2 (Mdiff0,2=−0.266, P=.005, d=0.399), on left arm to side from T0 to T1 (Mdiff0,1=0.201, P=.03, d=0.331) and from T0 to T2 (Mdiff0,2=0.179, P=.04, d=0.272; ).

    No change was observed in lower body strength (sit-to-stand; ).

    Table 4. z scores of T0 (baseline), T1 (4 wk), and T2 (8 wk) strength measures.
    Personalized exercise adherers (1) Personalized exercise nonadherers (2) General activity (3) Control (4) F Time (df) F Group (df) F Interaction (df)
    Left arm forward, mean (SD) 2.58 (2, 388) 2.17 (3, 194) 1.86 (6, 388)
    T0 −0.052 (0.821) 0.448 (0.186) 0.103 (1.108) −0.037 (0.910)
    T1 −0.267, (0.710) 0.236 (0.943) 0.029 (1.170) 0.107 (0.981)
    T2 −0.320, (0.688) 0.337 (0.971) −0.045 (1.088) 0.029 (0.912)
    Right arm forward, mean (SD) 0.93 (2, 392) 1.84 (3, 196) 1.92 (6, 392)
    T0 0.015 (0.869) 0.300 (1.118) 0.012 (1.048) 0.063 (0.983)
    T1 −0.257, (0.859) 0.308 (0.968) −0.011 (1.082) 0.105 (0.998)
    T2 −0.293, (0.793) 0.337 (1.062) −0.033 (1.049) 0.130 (0.950)
    Left arm to side, mean (SD) 0.22 (2, 404) 3.27 (3, 202) 1.47 (6, 404)
    T0 −0.095 (0.865) 0.440 (1.271) −0.059 (0.960) 0.023 (0.931)
    T1 −0.296, (0.778) 0.373 (0.960) −0.054 (1.122) 0.157 (0.989)
    T2 −0.274, (0.690) 0.492 (1.081) −0.085 (1.012) 0.078 (0.959)
    Right arm to side, mean (SD) 0.45 (2, 388) 1.52 (3, 194) 2.26 (6, 388)
    T0 0.318 (1.083) 0.318 (1.083) 0.063 (1.134) −0.060 (0.868)
    T1 −0.253, (0.799) 0.319 (0.916) −0.001 (1.051) 0.153, (1.045)
    T2 −0.219, (0.817) 0.285 (1.034) −0.038 (1.016) 0.078 (0.958)
    Total forward (left+right), mean (SD) 2.84 (2, 408) 2.44 (3, 204) 1.88 (6, 408)
    T0 −0.001 (0.838) 0.517 (1.182) 0.059 (1.086) 0.052 (0.975)
    T1 −0.228, (0.796) 0.318 (0.910) 0.004 (1.098) 0.150 (1.007)
    T2 −0.275, (0.753) 0.402 (1.047) −0.275 (0.753) 0.120 (0.973)
    Total to side (left+right), mean (SD) 0.35 (2, 412) 2.23 (3, 206) 1.83 (6, 412)
    T0 −0.048 (0.900) 0.379 (0.166) 0.024 (1.069) −0.019 (0.882)
    T1 −0.277, (0.773) 0.346 (0.930) −0.028 (1.085) 0.142 (0.997)
    T2 −0.229, (0.776) 0.388 (1.052) −0.040 (1.020) 0.077 (0.927)
    Total left (forward+side), mean (SD) 1.09 (2, 414) 2.61 (3, 207) 1.93 (6, 414)
    T0 −0.072 (0.823) 0.444 (1.160) 0.052 (1.067) −0.005 (0.893)
    T1 −0.277, (0.726) 0.305 (0.923) 0.007 (1.135) 0.142 (0.960)
    T2 −0.283, (0.686) 0.415 (1.000) −0.029 (1.043) 0.069 (0.923)
    Total right (forward+side), mean (SD) 0.38 (2, 442) 3.91 (3, 221) 1.88 (6, 442)
    T0 −0.153 (0.807) 0.512 (1.004) 0.041 (0.972) −0.043 (0.938)
    T1 −0.256, (0.775) 0.471 (0.888) 0.040 (1.006) 0.029 (1.000)
    T2 −0.237 (0.771) 0.591 (1.011) 0.037 (0.995) −0.026 (0.988)
    Lower body strength (sit to stand), mean (SD) 1.10 (2, 420) 2.16 (3, 210) 0.72 (6, 420)
    T0 −0.158 (0.974) 0.220 (0.891) 0.099 (1.048) −0.099 (0.976)
    T1 −0.254a (0.965) 0.325a (1.121) 0.126 (1.043) −0.025 (0.910)
    T2 −0.281 (0.877) 0.077 (0.947) 0.115 (1.069) −0.061 (0.923)

    aAdherers: ≥1.5/wk

    bNonadherers: <1.5/wk

    cDifferences between groups (P<.05).

    dDifferences between T0 and T1 (P<.05).

    eDifferences between groups (P<.01).

    fDifferences between T0 and T2 (P<.01).

    gDifferences between T0 and T1 (P<.01).

    hP<.05.

    iDifferences between T0 and T2 (P<.05).

    jP<.01.

    Follow-Up

    No group×time interaction was observed on any of the outcomes. Significant (P<.05) time effects were revealed, indicating significant deterioration in both groups—the personalized Adherers and the general groups—during the 4-week follow-up.

    Principal Findings

    We examined the hypothesis that remotely delivered, personalized multicomponent exercise for older adults—based on a simple yet reliable and accurate smartphone motor fitness assessment and individually tailored using machine learning—can improve balance, flexibility, and strength among older adults, all without the need for a laboratory or professional supervision.

    The results of this randomized controlled study demonstrated that a multicomponent personalized exercise program among older people was more effective when compared to active controls who were counseled to perform regular exercise according to WHO guidelines, as well as a passive control group (who received no intervention). Furthermore, improvements were achieved with as few as 1.5 tailored exercise sessions per week over 8 weeks and in many fitness measurements, even within 4 weeks.

    The study tool has been refined from the initial prototype and proof of concept [-] and in its present form was proven to be sufficiently sensitive to measure both improvement and decline across the motor fitness measures, in as few as 4 weeks following the initiation or cessation of the exercise intervention, respectively.

    The improvement in balance is of particular importance, as the relationship between balance impairment and falls [] and the positive effect of exercise on balance and fall prevention among older people is well documented []. However, exercise interventions typically involve group sessions in neighborhood clubs or physical therapy laboratories [], requiring a specialized trainer or therapist, and mostly target participants at risk of falls [,]. Balance control is multifactorial [,], and the novelty of the study tool presented in this study is not only its potential widespread application but also the fact that it includes 4 static and 2 dynamic balance tests, each comprising 5 DMs assessing body sway in all directions (mediolateral, anterior-posterior, and superior-inferior), offering a complete overview of the participant’s balance. Simultaneously, the balance-focused segment of our exercise programs addresses all components of balance, encompassing 5 subcategories: static, dynamic, vestibular, leg strength, and leg flexibility [].

    Flexibility is a fitness component known to typically decline with advancing age, presenting a major contribution to reduced functioning []. Although amenable to improvement through focused exercise [], nonetheless, current guidelines provide only minimal detailed attention, and consequently, this element of fitness often remains neglected [,]. Our findings revealed significant improvement in flexibility in as little as 4 weeks of tailored exercise for upper body (arm) flexibility (both extension and flexion), which was most pronounced among the personal adherers, while measures of torso rotation remained unchanged. In all likelihood, this lack of observed change in torso flexibility is an artifact due to the technical difficulty measuring this vector with the smartphone.

    The importance of upper body strength is notable with advancing age, with weakness associated with painful symptomatology [], upper limb dysfunction, and decreased performance measures []. It should be noted that upper extremity strength can be represented by several measurements, such as the widely used arm curl test [,]. We chose to focus on the shoulder joint because age-related decline in maximal upper extremity torque is greater at the shoulder than at the elbow and wrist joints [].

    In contrast to the shoulder, we did not observe significant differences in leg strength, although a trend for improvement was seen in the intervention group. In our pilot study, we previously observed improvements in leg strength using sit-to-stand repetitions over a 30-second period [,]. However, to simplify testing, we modified this measure to a time score for 10 repetitions, which led to a ceiling effect. Importantly, leg strength is essential for functioning in older adults [,], and evaluating the impact of exercise on this component is crucial. Since the sit-to-stand repetitions (as many repetitions as possible over 30 s) were shown to be sensitive to changes following exercise, we plan to return to this method in future assessments.

    Our study is unique in using a simple yet accurate smartphone platform to incorporate a remote assessment of balance, flexibility, and strength to serve as the baseline for a subsequent matched range of exercises, spanning these modalities of motor fitness. The existing models rely heavily upon fitness trackers, built-in accelerometers, and on occasion GPS to remotely monitor steps, endurance, and energy consumption. However, the critical elements of balance, flexibility, and shoulder strength are neglected, despite their crucial importance among older people. It is worth mentioning that recent evidence is emerging from the rehabilitation setting, supporting the use of smartphones for assessing balance or flexibility (range of motion) in older adults; however, mostly for highly specific conditions requiring clinical supervision [-].

    Notably, while the platform demonstrated sufficient sensitivity to detect changes at a low threshold (1.5 sessions per week over 4 weeks), it remains uncertain whether this frequency is adequate to produce meaningful clinical health benefits. This concern is further emphasized by the small effect sizes observed—despite their statistical significance—and by the higher frequency recommended in WHO guidelines. Based on our findings, we cannot assert that this level of activity is sufficient for inducing clinical health improvements.

    Similarly, the deterioration observed after the 4-week follow-up period without exercise was also subtle, suggesting that short-term inactivity may not necessarily lead to clinically relevant declines in fitness. This aligns with the broader detraining literature, which indicates that the rate of fitness loss is highly dependent on the initial training volume—encompassing factors such as intensity, duration, and frequency. Individuals with a higher training volume tend to experience a more gradual decline in fitness, whereas those with lower initial levels may exhibit more rapid losses [-].

    In our study, the smartphone app was able to detect subtle yet significant improvements in fitness after 4 weeks of exercise, which then disappeared following 4 weeks of inactivity. While neither of these changes is likely to translate into meaningful clinical health effects, they underscore the application’s sensitivity in capturing even small fluctuations in fitness over time—both in improvement and decline. This capability highlights its potential as a tool for remotely monitoring fitness trends that might otherwise go unnoticed outside of laboratory settings.

    An interesting finding of our study is the notable relationship between participants’ habitual physical activity and sedentary time before starting the intervention and their subsequent adherence to the exercise regimen. Significant differences were observed between adherers and nonadherers, with adherers engaging in more habitual physical activity and nonadherers spending more time sedentary. It is important to note that the classification into adherers and nonadherers was made post facto, only after the intervention ended. This suggests that nonadherence to physical activity, often associated with a more sedentary lifestyle, may reflect an underlying behavioral predisposition that persists even when individuals voluntarily enroll in an exercise program.

    Study Limitations

    Several limitations to our study deserve mention. First, the rate of adherence to the exercise program was accurately measured via the smartphone among the interventional group, while we had to rely upon self-reported data among the controls. Attempts to categorize the active control group into adherers and nonadherers based on self-reports, using the same cutoff points as described for the personalized group, showed no clear trends. To address this limitation, we compared the overall percentage of improvers in the intervention group to those in the active control group over the 8-week program, irrespective of the degree of adherence. Compared to the controls, the intervention participants showed higher rates of improvement for static balance (46% vs 33.3%, P=.07), dynamic balance (53.6% vs. 28.4%, P=.002), arm flexion (52.8% vs 43.4%, P=.48), and arm extension (46.1% vs 34.6%, P=.30).

    Second, in the current study, in order to generate accurate data for the study, the trained study personnel performed the testing of participants. However, the ultimate goal of the application is that participants will be able to assess themselves (or possibly with the assistance of a lay person, eg, family member).

    Another limitation is the sample’s bias toward participants from higher socioeconomic status. As this is a randomized controlled study, this bias does not affect the main outcome—the improvement of the intervention group over the controls. However, it may impact the generalizability of the study results to other populations.

    In addition, in the current study, we applied only 2 levels of difficulty for each of the 3 movement components. As large-scale data accumulate, there is potential to expand and further define more variations of movement profiles.

    Furthermore, physical fitness may include more components than the ones included in our study. For example, for assessing strength, while the selected tests did represent the major muscle groups, nonetheless, not all muscle groups were included. We also did not include other components such as eye–hand coordination or fine motor abilities. However, we selected the most appropriate tests for assessing motor and physical fitness in old age, taking into consideration medical aspects and safety precautions (for more information on designing the tests, see []).

    The interaction with the technology—the smartphone—may also be problematic. For example, using the smartphone screen was inconvenient for some participants, and larger screens would improve the ease of performing the exercises. This could be solved by connecting the smartphone to a large screen. In addition, the videoed exercise program was running in a continuous manner on the phone screen; however, if the participant wanted to repeat an exercise before moving to the next one, or to stop for some reason, he or she had to change his or her current position, approach the phone, stop the program, and restart it again.

    It may be argued against the smartphone sensors that there are settings where more accurate assessments may give more accurate results. Although applicable for research, these settings are inaccessible to the general population as they are scarce and expensive to use. Prior work [,] has already demonstrated that smartphones offer a reliable tracking of motor functions and therefore offer a sufficient, even if not perfect, means for evaluation in large scales.

    The study sample was generally healthy at the time of enrollment, as assessed by the study physician. Enrolled participants were cognitively intact, free from any hospitalization in the last year for any cardiac or neurological reason, independent in daily function, able to walk without assistance, and with a low fall risk. Furthermore, we included a 41-item frailty assessment (see ), which confirmed very low levels of frailty across all participants. Although comorbidities or other current health conditions were not formally assessed, nonetheless, the study sample’s health profile of high cognitive function, independent functional and mobility status, very low frailty levels, and no recent cardiological or neurological illness for hospitalization was suggestive of an overall health status.

    Using Artificial Intelligence for Extending and Refining the Tailored Exercise Program

    Generating optimal personalized exercise program should rely not only on assessing the level of fitness but also considering basic aspects of the individual health status and behavior patterns. In line with personalized genomics and big data accumulation, a possible future upgraded version of this application might be used in conjunction with data drawn from genetic, molecular, clinical, social, and behavioral domains in order to achieve an optimal prescription of personalized exercise programs.

    Furthermore, large-scale data will enable an in-depth analysis of individual movement capacities, a more accurate assessment of a wide range of fitness and mobility parameters, and, subsequently, more specific personalized exercise programs. For instance, when assessing balance in individuals with stability issues, it is beneficial to analyze the specific directions of sway—mediolateral, anteroposterior, and superior-inferior. Similarly, an arm strength test can be broken down into separate actions of “lifting the hand up” and “lowering it down,” while the sit-to-stand test can be divided into “getting up” and “sitting down.” Accurately localizing movement impairments has important clinical implications.

    The potential ramifications of this study are multifold. First, we provide a model whereby a home-based, highly detailed remote analysis of fitness and mobility parameters provides objective quantitative data as a basis for subsequent tailored exercise interventions at the individual level. Furthermore, the sensitivity of the remote sensors was shown to be sufficient to enable an adaptive, precise, and updating exercise program, determined by the participants’ progress over time. In addition, the continually updating database serves to constantly improve the machine learning precision of decisions concerning the selection of appropriate exercises. Second, our study included only healthy, independent adults aged 65 years and over. We provide evidence to support a platform that has the potential to be adapted to meet the specific needs and abilities of various healthy and patient populations. Specifically, among older people, it is plausible that targeted and individualized exercise interventions are likely to play a beneficial role in improving intrinsic capacity and resilience, moderating frailty and deconditioning. Similarly, individualized programs can be further refined to address specific needs of populations with mobility limitations, such as those at risk of falls or confined to wheelchairs, as well as the potential applicability among participants with cognitive impairments.

    Summary and Conclusions

    In this randomized controlled study, we examined a novel home-based approach for personalized exercise programs for older adults, utilizing a simple smartphone that obviates the need for a laboratory or professional intervention. Through smartphone accelerometer and gyroscope sensors, we remotely assessed key components of motor fitness, including balance, flexibility, and strength. Based on these assessments, a machine-learning-generated personalized exercise program, tailored to each individual’s needs, was delivered via video directly on the smartphone. The results demonstrated that a multicomponent personalized exercise program was more effective when compared to active controls who were counseled to perform regular exercise according to WHO guidelines, as well as a passive control group who received no intervention. Furthermore, improvements were achieved with as few as 1.5 tailored exercise sessions per week over 8 weeks and in many fitness measurements, even within 4 weeks. The remote delivery of user-friendly multicomponent exercise programs to older people has the potential for widespread health benefits. Given the potential of this approach to be extended to various groups of older adults, including those with mobility and cognitive impairments, and considering the advantages of cost-free digital technology (assuming widespread smartphone ownership), health care providers may adopt this approach to provide home-based strategies for health promotion.

    This work was supported by the Ministry of Innovation, Science and Technology, Israel (grant 3‐15714). The funder had no role in the design and conduct of the study; collection, management, analysis, and interpretation of the data; preparation, review, or approval of the manuscript; or decision to submit the manuscript for publication.

    The datasets generated or analyzed during this study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

    YN initiated the idea, was responsible for the grant application for this trial, and wrote the original draft of the manuscript. EA was responsible for the project management. JMJ took a major part in the grant application and in establishing the study protocol and was responsible for achieving ethical approval. JMJ determined the medical criteria for the inclusion and exclusion criteria for the study and was responsible for medical aspects of the study. EA and EB were responsible for designing the exercise program and for the fitness tests. ZY took part in writing the grant application and was responsible for developing the dedicated digital app of the selected tests. KTK took a major part in developing the digital app. SB-S took a leading role in visualization. MA and SB-S were responsible for data curation. MA took a leading role in analyzing the data. SB-S took a major role in reviewing and editing the manuscript. All authors have read and approved the final version of the manuscript.

    None declared.

    Edited by Taiane de Azevedo Cardoso; submitted 27.Feb.2025; peer-reviewed by Kelechi Elechi, Leela Prasad Gorrepati, Reenu Singh; final revised version received 22.May.2025; accepted 27.May.2025; published 15.Oct.2025.

    © Yael Netz, Salit Bar-Shalom, Esther Argov, Michal Arnon, Eti Benmoha, Ziv Yekutieli, Keren Tchelet Karlinsky, Jeremy M Jacobs. Originally published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research (https://www.jmir.org), 15.Oct.2025.

    This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work, first published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research (ISSN 1438-8871), is properly cited. The complete bibliographic information, a link to the original publication on https://www.jmir.org/, as well as this copyright and license information must be included.

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  • Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable – 5th Cochairs Progress Report

    Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable – 5th Cochairs Progress Report


    Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable – 5th Cochairs Progress Report







    October 15, 2025















    Washington, D.C – The Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable (GSDR) met today and reviewed progress on the work to improve debt restructuring processes and timelines, and to help address debt vulnerabilities. Participants also discussed priority areas for the work going forward. At the end of the meeting, the International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, World Bank Group President Ajay Banga, and Finance Minister of South Africa, G20 Presidency, Enoch Godongwana, co-chairs of the GSDR, issued the GSDR 5th Cochairs Report as well as the compilation of technical issues discussed by the GSDR so far.

    The GSDR brings together debtor countries and official and private creditors with the objective to build common understanding among key stakeholders on debt sustainability and debt restructuring challenges, and ways to address them.

     

     

     

     

     


    IMF Communications Department
    MEDIA RELATIONS

    PRESS OFFICER: Randa Elnagar

    Phone: +1 202 623-7100Email: MEDIA@IMF.org





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  • Viatris Completes Acquisition of Aculys Pharma Including Exclusive Rights to Pitolisant in Japan and to Spydia® in Japan and Certain Other Markets in the Asia-Pacific Region

    Viatris Completes Acquisition of Aculys Pharma Including Exclusive Rights to Pitolisant in Japan and to Spydia® in Japan and Certain Other Markets in the Asia-Pacific Region

    Viatris Completes Acquisition of Aculys Pharma Including Exclusive Rights to Pitolisant in Japan and to Spydia® in Japan and Certain Other Markets in the Asia-Pacific Region

    • Strengthens Viatris’ Presence in Japan With the Addition of Two Innovative Assets Targeting Areas of Significant Unmet Medical Need
    • Leverages Existing Infrastructure and Expertise in Central Nervous System Therapy Area
    • Aligned with Strategy to Target Accretive Regional Business Development Opportunities

    PITTSBURGH, Oct. 15, 2025 /PRNewswire/ — Viatris Inc. (Nasdaq: VTRS), a global healthcare company, today announced it has acquired Aculys Pharma, Inc., a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company focused on commercializing innovative treatments for neurological conditions. Viatris received rights to develop and commercialize pitolisant and Spydia®, two assets in the Central Nervous System (CNS) therapy area, further expanding Viatris’ portfolio of innovative products in Japan.

    As part of the transaction, Viatris has acquired exclusive development and commercialization rights in Japan for pitolisant, a selective/inverse agonist of the histamine H3 receptor. Based on the strength of recent Phase 3 clinical trial results in Japanese patients and the positive benefit-risk profile established globally, Viatris is on track to file for marketing approval from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (MHLW) of Japan for the treatment of excessive daytime sleepiness (EDS) or cataplexy in adult patients with narcolepsy and for the treatment of excessive daytime sleepiness associated with obstructive sleep apnea syndrome (OSAS) by the end of 2025.

    The transaction also includes exclusive rights in Japan and certain other markets in the Asia-Pacific region for Spydia Nasal Spray, which was approved in Japan in June 2025 for the treatment of status epilepticus.

    “The acquisition of Aculys Pharma leverages our deep commercial infrastructure in Japan and longstanding expertise in CNS, positioning us to bring these innovative treatments to more patients in need,” said Corinne Le Goff, Chief Commercial Officer, Viatris. “The addition of pitolisant and Spydia to our portfolio of innovative products is strategically aligned with our commitment to grow in areas where we can make the greatest impact and is a great example of our business development strategy designed to complement our core strengths in markets across the world.” 

    This acquisition further expands Viatris’ portfolio of innovative products in Japan which includes Effexor for the treatment of generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) which is under regulatory review, selatogrel in Acute MI, Nefecon in IgA nephropathy, and cenerimod in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), all of which have pivotal Phase 3 trials currently on going and Tyrvaya in dry eye disease for which a Phase 3 trial is anticipated to start in 2026.

    Terms of the Transaction
    Under the terms of the acquisition agreement, Viatris has made an upfront payment to Aculys Pharma shareholders as consideration for the acquisition, with additional consideration contingent upon the achievement of specified regulatory and commercial milestones, and royalties on net sales.

    About Pitolisant
    Pitolisant is an antagonist/inverse agonist that selectively binds to the histamine H3 receptor, an autoreceptor located in the presynaptic region of the histamine-containing neurons in the human brain that plays a critical role in regulating sleep and wake rhythm. The drug was approved by the European Medicines Agency (EMA) for the treatment of narcolepsy with or without cataplexy in 2016 and for the treatment of excessive daytime sleepiness associated with OSAS in 2021. In 2019, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved pitolisant under the brand name Wakix® for the treatment of excessive daytime sleepiness associated with narcolepsy and cataplexy associated with narcolepsy in 2020. As of the end of 2023, pitolisant had obtained regulatory approval in 38 countries including the U.S. and the EU for the treatment of narcolepsy, and in 29 countries in the EU for the treatment of OSAS.

    Positive Pivotal study results in Japanese patients were recently achieved in both narcolepsy and OSAS. In the narcolepsy Phase 3 trial, the primary endpoint of improvement in excessive daytime sleepiness (EDS) compared to a placebo group using the Epworth Sleepiness Scale (ESS) was met. Statistically significant difference in ESS was observed between the two groups. Furthermore, the key secondary endpoint of the frequency of cataplexy attacks showed a suppression effect comparable to that observed in prior global Phase 3 trials. No serious adverse events were noted, and the safety and tolerability results were consistent with global clinical trials.

    The OSAS Phase 3 trial evaluated the effect of pitolisant in Japanese patients with OSAS who were experiencing residual EDS despite treatment with CPAP therapy. At the end of the 12-week treatment period, patients receiving pitolisant scored lower on the ESS used to measure EDS compared to those in the placebo group and this difference was statistically significant (p=0.007). Additionally, safety and tolerability were consistent with results from global clinical studies.

    About Spydia (diazepam)
    In Japan, Aculys Pharma received marketing approval for Spydia Nasal Spray 5 mg, 7.5 mg, and 10 mg for the treatment of status epilepticus in patients 2 years or older in June 2025. This is the first intranasal anti-seizure medication approved in Japan for the treatment of status epilepticus or seizures with potential progression to status epilepticus. It is also the first rescue medication approved for adults for out-of-hospital use.

    This drug was developed by Neurelis, Inc. in the US and Aculys Pharma obtained exclusive development and commercialization rights in Japan and certain markets in the Asia-Pacific region, including Australia, Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, New Zealand, Philippines, South Korea, Thailand and Vietnam. In 2020, the FDA approved diazepam nasal spray under the brand name Valtoco® for the acute treatment of intermittent, stereotypic episodes of frequent seizure activity that are distinct from a usual seizure pattern in patients with epilepsy aged 6 years and older. In April 2025, the FDA extended the indication to include patients aged 2 years and older. Diazepam has been used for approximately 60 years in Japan, primarily in injectable form as a treatment for epileptic seizures. 

    About Viatris
    Viatris Inc. (Nasdaq: VTRS) is a global healthcare company uniquely positioned to bridge the traditional divide between generics and brands, combining the best of both to more holistically address healthcare needs globally. With a mission to empower people worldwide to live healthier at every stage of life, we provide access at scale, currently supplying high-quality medicines to approximately 1 billion patients around the world annually and touching all of life’s moments, from birth to the end of life, acute conditions to chronic diseases. With our exceptionally extensive and diverse portfolio of medicines, a one-of-a-kind global supply chain designed to reach more people when and where they need them, and the scientific expertise to address some of the world’s most enduring health challenges, access takes on deep meaning at Viatris. We are headquartered in the U.S., with global centers in Pittsburgh, Shanghai and Hyderabad, India. Learn more at viatris.com and investor.viatris.com, and connect with us on LinkedIn, Instagram, YouTube and X.

    About Aculys Pharma, Inc.
    Aculys Pharma is a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company that is pioneering ways to eliminate drug lag/drug loss in Japan and is working to resolve social issues related to neurological and psychiatry diseases. Its corporate name was created from the philosophy of serving as a “Catalyst to Access”. Aiming to act as a bridge for innovative medical care in the field of neuropsychiatry, Aculys Pharma develops and commercializes novel pharmaceuticals introduced from the US and European countries and provides innovations for better medical care to patients, their families, healthcare professionals, and society.

    Forward-Looking Statements
    This press release includes statements that constitute “forward-looking statements.” These statements are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such forward-looking statements may include statements regarding Viatris completes acquisition of Aculys Pharma including exclusive rights to pitolisant in Japan and to Spydia® in Japan and certain other markets in the Asia-Pacific region; strengthens Viatris’ presence in Japan with the addition of two innovative assets targeting areas of significant unmet medical need; leverages existing infrastructure and expertise in Central Nervous System therapy area; aligned with strategy to target accretive regional business development opportunities; based on the strength of recent Phase 3 clinical trial results in Japanese patients and the positive benefit-risk profile established globally, Viatris is on track to file for marketing approval from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (MHLW) of Japan for the treatment of excessive daytime sleepiness (EDS) or cataplexy in adult patients with narcolepsy and for the treatment of excessive daytime sleepiness associated with obstructive sleep apnea syndrome (OSAS) by the end of 2025; the acquisition of Aculys Pharma leverages our deep commercial infrastructure in Japan and longstanding expertise in CNS, positioning us to bring these innovative treatments to more patients in need; the addition of pitolisant and Spydia to our portfolio of innovative products is strategically aligned with our commitment to grow in areas where we can make the greatest impact and is a great example of our business development strategy designed to complement our core strengths in markets across the world; this acquisition further expands Viatris’ portfolio of innovative products in Japan which includes Effexor for the treatment of generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) which is under regulatory review, selatogrel in Acute MI, Nefecon in IgA nephropathy, and cenerimod in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), all of which have pivotal Phase 3 trials currently on going and Tyrvaya in dry eye disease for which a Phase 3 trial is anticipated to start in 2026; under the terms of the acquisition agreement, Viatris has made an upfront payment to Aculys Pharma shareholders as consideration for the acquisition, with additional consideration contingent upon the achievement of specified regulatory and commercial milestones, and royalties on net sales; positive Pivotal study results in Japanese patients were recently achieved in both narcolepsy and OSAS; in the narcolepsy Phase 3 trial, the primary endpoint of improvement in excessive daytime sleepiness (EDS) compared to a placebo group using the Epworth Sleepiness Scale (ESS) was met; statistically significant difference in ESS was observed between the two groups; furthermore, the key secondary endpoint of the frequency of cataplexy attacks showed a suppression effect comparable to that observed in prior global Phase 3 trials; no serious adverse events were noted, and the safety and tolerability results were consistent with global clinical trials; the OSAS Phase 3 trial evaluated the effect of pitolisant in Japanese patients with OSAS who were experiencing residual EDS despite treatment with CPAP therapy; at the end of the 12-week treatment period, patients receiving pitolisant scored lower on the ESS used to measure EDS compared to those in the placebo group and this difference was statistically significant (p=0.007); additionally, safety and tolerability were consistent with results from global clinical studies. Because forward-looking statements inherently involve risks and uncertainties, actual future results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause or contribute to such differences include, but are not limited to: Viatris not realizing the anticipated benefits of the acquisition; the uncertainties inherent in research and development, including the outcomes of clinical trials; the ability to meet anticipated clinical endpoints; the possibility of unfavorable new clinical data and further analyses of existing clinical data; the risk that clinical trial data are subject to differing interpretations and assessments by regulatory authorities; whether regulatory authorities will be satisfied with the design of and results from clinical studies; actions and decisions of healthcare and pharmaceutical regulators; our ability to comply with applicable laws and regulations; changes in healthcare and pharmaceutical laws and regulations in the U.S. and abroad; any regulatory, legal or other impediments to Viatris’ ability to bring new products to market; products in development and/or that receive regulatory approval may not achieve expected levels of market acceptance, efficacy or safety; longer review, response and approval times as a result of evolving regulatory priorities and reductions in personnel at health agencies; Viatris’ or its partners’ ability to develop, manufacture, and commercialize products; the scope, timing and outcome of any ongoing legal proceedings, and the impact of any such proceedings on Viatris; Viatris’ failure to achieve expected or targeted future financial and operating performance and results; goodwill or impairment charges or other losses; any changes in or difficulties with Viatris’ manufacturing facilities; risks associated with international operations; changes in third-party relationships; the effect of any changes in Viatris’ or its partners’ customer and supplier relationships and customer purchasing patterns; the impacts of competition; changes in the economic and financial conditions of Viatris or its partners; uncertainties regarding future demand, pricing and reimbursement for Viatris’ products; uncertainties and matters beyond the control of management, including but not limited to general political and economic conditions, potential adverse impacts from future tariffs and trade restrictions, inflation rates and global exchange rates; and the other risks described in Viatris’ filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). Viatris routinely uses its website as a means of disclosing material information to the public in a broad, non-exclusionary manner for purposes of the SEC’s Regulation Fair Disclosure (Reg FD). Viatris undertakes no obligation to update these statements for revisions or changes after the date of this press release other than as required by law.

     

    SOURCE Viatris Inc.

    For further information: Viatris Contacts: Media, +1.724.514.1968, Communications@viatris.com; Jennifer Mauer, Jennifer.Mauer@viatris.com; Matt Klein, Matthew.Klein@Viatris.com; Investors: +1.412.707.2866, InvestorRelations@viatris.com; Bill Szablewski, William.Szablewski@viatris.com


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  • Sebela Women’s Health’s MIUDELLA® Hormone-Free Copper Intrauterine System (IUS) Named to TIME’s List of the Best Inventions of 2025

    Sebela Women’s Health’s MIUDELLA® Hormone-Free Copper Intrauterine System (IUS) Named to TIME’s List of the Best Inventions of 2025

    ROSWELL, Ga., Oct. 15, 2025 /PRNewswire/ — Sebela Women’s Health Inc., a part of Sebela Pharmaceuticals, today announced that MIUDELLA® Hormone-Free Copper Intrauterine System (IUS) has been named to TIME’s list of the best inventions of 2025.

    To compile this year’s list, TIME solicited nominations from TIME editors and correspondents around the world through an online application process, paying special attention to growing fields—such as health care and AI. TIME then evaluated each contender on a number of key factors, including originality, efficacy, ambition, and impact. See the full list here: time.com/collections/best-inventions-2025/ and MIUDELLA® brief here: https://time.com/collections/best-inventions-2025/7318454/sebela-miudella/. 

    MIUDELLA® is the first hormone-free copper IUD in the U.S. in over 40 years. It was approved on February 24, 2025, by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for the prevention of pregnancy in females of reproductive potential for up to three years, and it is expected to be available to patients through trained healthcare providers in the U.S. in the first half of 2026.

    “Sebela Women’s Health is delighted that MIUDELLA was named to TIME’s Best Inventions of 2025 list,” said Kelly Culwell, MD, Head of Research and Development, Sebela Women’s Health. “This distinction further supports our belief that the novel design of MIUDELLA will offer an innovative option for birth control for women nationwide.”

    Guidelines from the American College of Obstetrics and Gynecology state that long-acting reversible contraceptive (LARC) methods, including intrauterine devices and contraceptive implants, are the most effective contraceptive methods, have few contraindications, and are appropriate for almost all patients.1 While there are a variety of contraceptive methods available to women, 41.6 percent of pregnancies in the U.S. are unintended.2

    INDICATION FOR MIUDELLA®
    MIUDELLA® is a copper-containing intrauterine system (IUS) indicated for prevention of pregnancy in females of reproductive potential for up to 3 years.

    IMPORTANT SAFETY INFORMATION

    • WARNING: Improper insertion of intrauterine systems, including MIUDELLA®, increases the risk of complications.
    • Proper training prior to first use of MIUDELLA® can minimize the risk of improper insertion.
    • MIUDELLA® is available only through a restricted program under a Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) called the MIUDELLA® REMS program to ensure healthcare providers are trained on the proper insertion of MIUDELLA® prior to first use. Further information is available at miudellarems.com and 1-855-337-0772.
    • Contraindications: Don’t use MIUDELLA® if you are or may be pregnant, have a uterine anomaly that may affect correct placement, acute pelvic inflammatory disease, postpartum endometritis or postabortal endometritis in past 3 months, known or suspected uterine or cervical malignancy, for use as post-coital contraception (emergency contraception), unexplained bleeding, untreated acute cervicitis or vaginitis or other lower genital tract infection, conditions associated with increased susceptibility to pelvic infections, Wilson’s disease, a previously placed IUS that has not been removed and/or hypersensitivity to any component of MIUDELLA® including copper, nitinol or any trace elements present in the copper components of MIUDELLA®.
    • Pregnancy with MIUDELLA® is rare but can be life threatening and cause infertility or loss of pregnancy.
    • MIUDELLA® may attach to or go through the uterus and cause other problems.
    • Tell your healthcare provider (HCP) if you develop severe pain or fever shortly after placement, miss a period, have abdominal pain, or if MIUDELLA® comes out. If it comes out, use backup birth control.
    • At first, periods may be altered and result in heavier and longer bleeding with spotting in between.
    • Tell your HCP you have MIUDELLA® before having an MRI or a medical procedure using heat therapy.
    • Additional common side effects include painful periods, pelvic discomfort/pain, procedural pain, post procedural bleeding, and pain during sex.
    • MIUDELLA® does not protect against HIV or STDs.

    Only you and your HCP can decide if MIUDELLA® is right for you. Available by prescription only. For additional information or to report suspected adverse reactions, please contact Sebela Women’s Health Inc. at 1-866-246-2133. You are encouraged to report negative side effects of prescription drugs to the FDA at www.fda.gov/medwatch or call 1-800-FDA-1088.

    Click here for the Full Prescribing Information for MIUDELLA®.

    About Sebela Pharmaceuticals®

    Sebela Pharmaceuticals is a US pharmaceutical company with a market leading position in gastroenterology and a focus on innovation in women’s health. In addition to MIUDELLA®, Sebela Women’s Health has another next-generation hormonal IUD for contraception in late-stage clinical development. Braintree Laboratories, Inc., a part of Sebela Pharmaceuticals, is the market leader in colonoscopy screening preparations for over 35 years, having invented, developed and commercialized a broad portfolio of innovative prescription colonoscopy preparations and multiple gastroenterology products. Braintree also has several gastroenterology programs in late-stage clinical development including Tegoprazan which is in phase 3 trials for gastro-esophageal reflux disease (GERD), specifically, erosive esophagitis (EE) and non-erosive reflux disease (NERD).

    Sebela Pharmaceuticals has offices/operations in Roswell, GA; Braintree, MA; and Dublin, Ireland. Please visit sebelapharma.com for more information or call 844-732-3521.

    MIUDELLA is a registered trademark of Sebela Women’s Health Inc.

    Forward Looking Statements

    This press release and any statements made for and during any presentation or meeting contain forward- looking statements related to Sebela Women’s Health Inc. under the safe harbor provisions of Section 21E of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, as amended, and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected. In some cases, forward-looking statements can be identified by terminology such as “will,” “may,” “should,” “could,” “expects,” “intends,” “plans,” “aims,” “anticipates,” “believes,” “estimates,” “predicts,” “potential,” “continue,” or the negative of these terms or other comparable terminology, although not all forward-looking statements contain these words. There are a number of factors that could cause actual events to differ materially from those indicated by such forward-looking statements. These factors include, but are not limited to, the development, launch, introduction and commercial potential of IUDs as described herein; growth and opportunity, including peak sales and the potential demand for these IUDs, as well as their potential impact on applicable markets; market size; substantial competition; our ability to continue as a growing concern; our need for additional financing; uncertainties of patent protection and litigation; uncertainties of government or third-party payer reimbursement; dependence upon third parties supply and manufacturing uncertainties; our financial performance and results, including the risk that we are unable to manage our operating expenses or cash use for operations, or are unable to commercialize our products, within the guided ranges or otherwise as expected; and risks related to failure to obtain FDA clearances or approvals and noncompliance with FDA regulations. As with any pharmaceutical under development, there are significant risks in the development, regulatory approval and commercialization of new products. While the list of factors presented here is considered representative, no such list should be considered to be a complete statement of all potential risks and uncertainties. Unlisted factors may present significant additional obstacles to the realization of forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements included herein are made as of the date hereof, are based on current expectations, and Sebela Women’s Health Inc. does not undertake any obligation to update publicly such statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances except as required by law.

    Contact
    Sebela Women’s Health
    Erinn White
    [email protected]
    917-769-2785

    1 ACOG, Clinical Practice Bulletin #186, Nov. 2017 reaffirmed 2021; Committee Statement #5, April 2023. Accessed on April 18, 2023: https://www.acog.org/clinical/clinical-guidance/practice-bulletin/articles/2017/11/long-acting-reversible-contraception-implants-and-intrauterine-devices and https://www.acog.org/clinical/clinical-guidance/committee-statement/articles/2023/03/increasing-access-to-intrauterine-devices-and-contraceptive-implants 
    2 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Accessed on Feb. 18, 2025. https://www.cdc.gov/reproductive-health/hcp/unintended-pregnancy/index.html#:~:text=Overview,2010%20to%2035.7%20in%202019

    SOURCE Sebela Pharmaceuticals Inc

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  • United Airlines Continues to Win Brand-Loyal Customers as Q3 Profit and Q4 Outlook Both Exceed Wall Street Expectations

    United Airlines Continues to Win Brand-Loyal Customers as Q3 Profit and Q4 Outlook Both Exceed Wall Street Expectations

    Q3 diluted earnings per share of $2.90; Q3 adjusted diluted earnings per share1 of $2.78, above the top end of guidance; Q4 adjusted diluted earnings per share guidance of $3.00 to $3.502

    Customer investments this year are on track to total over $1 billion focused on improving the experience, product and service, delivering more value for every customer on every flight, and United expects to invest over $1 billion more in 2026

    Growing base of brand-loyal customers boosted resilience through macro volatility during the first three quarters of the year and is poised to fuel a strong Q4 as the demand environment strengthens with an expected meaningful improvement in unit revenue year-over-year compared to Q3

    Operational excellence continues to lay a solid foundation for the overall business as United flew its largest summer mainline schedule ever in 2025 and had its lowest third-quarter cancel rate in its history3

    CHICAGO, Oct. 15, 2025 /PRNewswire/ — United Airlines (UAL) today reported a third-quarter profit ahead of Wall Street expectations. The company had third-quarter pre-tax earnings of $1.3 billion, with a pre-tax margin of 8.2% and adjusted pre-tax earnings1 of $1.2 billion, with an adjusted pre-tax margin1 of 8.0%. The company also achieved diluted earnings per share of $2.90 and adjusted diluted earnings per share1 of $2.78, compared to guidance of $2.25 to $2.75. Total operating revenue grew 2.6% year-over year to $15.2 billion.

    These financial results show how the airline has thrived in an economically volatile year thanks to brand-loyal customers who choose to fly United because of the value in the United experience. United continued to benefit from diverse revenue sources during the quarter. In the third quarter, premium cabin revenue rose 6% year-over-year; revenue from Basic Economy rose 4% year-over-year; cargo revenue rose 3% year-over-year and loyalty revenue rose 9% year-over-year. This great momentum has continued so far in the fourth quarter and we expect the fourth quarter of 2025 to have the highest total operating revenue for a single quarter in company history.

    “We’ve invested in customers at every price point: Seatback screens, an industry-leading mobile app, extra legroom, a lie-flat United Polaris seat, and fast, free, reliable Starlink on every plane by 2027. Our customers value the United experience, making them increasingly loyal to United,” CEO Scott Kirby said. “Those investments over almost a decade, combined with great service from our people, have allowed United to win and retain brand-loyal customers, leading to economic resilience even with macro economic volatility through the first three quarters of the year and significant upside as the economy and demand are improving in the fourth quarter.”

    United continues to make significant investments in winning brand-loyal customers, including more than $1 billion planned on enhancements including Starlink installations, seatback screens, and 25% more on food. Over half of the United narrowbody fleet now has its signature interior and seatback screens, leading to a 15-point increase in customer satisfaction with the inflight entertainment system since third quarter 2022. United plans to invest an additional $1 billion in the customer experience in 2026.

    United’s reliable operation is also benefiting customers and building brand loyalty. United had its highest third-quarter completion factor3, carried more than 48 million customers, the most-ever during a quarter, and flew its largest daily mainline schedule with 2,940 daily flights carrying more than 427,000 passengers a day. Six of United’s seven hubs ranked first or second for on-time departures. Reliability continues to be a focus — customers who arrive on time are more than three times as likely to recommend United as compared to customers whose flights are delayed.

    United’s network strength is another reason it is winning customer preference. Last week it announced summer 2026 flights to Split, Croatia; Glasgow, Scotland; Santiago de Compostela, Spain; and Bari, Italy, while also bringing back all six new Atlantic destinations from its summer 2025 international expansion. United is the largest carrier across the Atlantic, with service to 46 cities planned for 2026.

    “Customers are increasingly choosing an airline that can deliver value for them across the full travel experience, from Basic Economy to United Polaris,” Kirby said. “We are well-positioned to be the airline those brand-loyal customers choose to fly them across the U.S. and around the world.”

    Third-Quarter Financial Results

    • Capacity up 7.2% compared to third-quarter 2024.
    • Total operating revenue of $15.2 billion, up 2.6% compared to third-quarter 2024.
    • TRASM down (4.3%) compared to third-quarter 2024.
    • CASM down (2.8%), and CASM-ex1 down (0.9%), compared to third-quarter 2024; 1 point of expense moved from third-quarter 2025 to fourth-quarter 2025 primarily driven by maintenance and a reduction of 1 point of labor expense due to the timing of certain union contracts.
    • Pre-tax earnings of $1.3 billion, with a pre-tax margin of 8.2%; adjusted pre-tax earnings1 of $1.2 billion, with an adjusted pre-tax margin1 of 8.0%.
    • Net income of $0.9 billion; adjusted net income1 of $0.9 billion.
    • Diluted earnings per share of $2.90; adjusted diluted earnings per share1 of $2.78.
    • Average fuel price per gallon of $2.43.
    • Ending available liquidity4 of $16.3 billion.
    • Total debt, finance lease obligations and other financial liabilities of $25.4 billion at quarter end.
    • Prepaid the remaining $1.5 billion balance of the MileagePlus bonds, resulting in full repayment of all debt secured by the MileagePlus business.
    • Trailing twelve months net leverage5 of 2.1x.
    • Repurchased $19 million of shares in the third quarter 2025, and have repurchased approximately $612 million of shares year-to-date as of September 30, 2025.

    Key Highlights

    • Operated the largest daily mainline schedule flown in a quarter, carrying over 48 million customers, a daily average of 427,000 mainline customers on 2,940 daily mainline flights. This included flying the largest international schedule in United’s history, with more than 400 roundtrips per day to a total of 142 destinations.
    • Launched a collaboration with Apple TV, bringing the streaming service’s most popular series to customers for free on 130,000+ seatback screens.
    • United has updated more than half of its narrowbody fleet with its signature interior and seatback screens, leading to a 15-point increase in customer satisfaction with the inflight entertainment system since third quarter 2022.
    • Achieved the highest customer satisfaction rate for a third quarter since 2022 across key customer experience drivers, having invested $85 million in the food and beverage program with another $45 million allotted next year.
    • Announced the airline will resume flights to Tel Aviv from Chicago O’Hare and Washington Dulles for the first time since 2023, with flights scheduled to begin in early November.
    • Received FAA certification on the airline’s first mainline Starlink-equipped aircraft, operating the first Starlink-equipped commercial flight earlier today. Access to Starlink will be free for all MileagePlus customers and includes game-changing inflight entertainment experiences like streaming services, shopping, gaming and more. Membership to MileagePlus is also free and people can sign-up now at united.com/starlink.

    Customer Experience

    • Connection Saver saved 290,000 potential missed customer connections, the highest for a third quarter in the company’s history.
    • United launched TSA PreCheck Touchless ID at its Denver and Newark hubs, bringing a more seamless customer experience to 12 airports total.
    • With a $9 million investment in digital check-in and curbside processes over the last year, nearly half of passengers flown in the quarter bypassed the lobby for a more efficient travel experience, with 85% of customers using digital check-in and the airline achieving the highest ever curbside utilization for a quarter.
    • Opened the airline’s fourth United Club location at its Denver hub, a two-story, 33,000 square-foot space for customers to relax and recharge during the travel journey.
    • Announced the opening of the United Globe Club at Capital One Arena this fall in collaboration with Monumental Sports and Entertainment, a 24,000 square-foot lounge that offers spectators a VIP experience.

    Operations

    • United’s Newark hub achieved its best operational performance for a summer in the airline’s history3, and the FAA finalized its order capping flight operations to 72 operations per hour through October of 2026.
    • Began operating out of four additional gates at Chicago O’Hare in October, with a fifth gate expected to begin operating later in October. The gates were assigned to United by the City of Chicago and Chicago Department of Aviation’s redetermination process which is based on operations at the airport.
    • Achieved the airline’s highest third-quarter completion rate in company history3.
    • United Express achieved 43 days with a 100% completion rate, setting a company record for the most days of perfect completion for the year to date at 923.
    • Broke ground on a new, state of the art catering facility at the airline’s Houston hub, that will use automated technology to streamline meal assembly and improve preparation time.

    Network

    • Announced additional flights to 15 U.S. cities in United’s winter schedule, including two new routes from Newark to Columbia, South Carolina and Chattanooga, Tennessee and increased daily flying to popular warm-weather destinations like Orlando, Florida; Ft. Lauderdale, Florida and Las Vegas, Nevada.
    • United expanded both its international and domestic networks, including Denver to Columbia, Missouri; Watertown, South Dakota; and Pierre, South Dakota; Chicago to Columbia, Missouri and Lafayette, Indiana; and Tokyo-Narita to Kaohsiung.
    • Added 24 nonstop flights to fly college football fans to games this fall.
    • Announced the launch of a codeshare program with ITA Airways, giving customers access to booking one-way tickets to more Italian destinations.

    Employees, Communities and Investments

    • In the company’s fifth annual September of Service, United partnered with Rise Against Hunger to host more than 20 meal packaging events throughout the system, with more than 3,500 employees volunteering over 11,000 hours throughout the month to package more than 497,000 meals.
    • United supported the transport of over 117 responders to recovery efforts at 11 disaster relief events in partnership with Airlink, transporting over 221,000 pounds of cargo in support of 25 non-profit organizations to aid over 644,000 around the world. In total, United transported the most cargo for a third quarter in company history, at 9.5 million pounds of medical shipments and 262,000 pounds of military shipments.
    • Committed $250,000 in funding to 24 schools impacted by California wildfires earlier this year.
    • Hosted 18 events in honor of Girls in Aviation Day to educate young girls on future possibilities in aviation.
    • Strengthened United’s early career pipeline, launching a Campus Ambassador Program at select universities this fall to recruit future talent.
    • United Airlines Ventures announced its investment in supersonic aircraft startup Astro Mechanica.

    Awards

    • United was recognized as a leading employer in Newsweek’s 2026 list of America’s Most Admired Workplaces, America’s Greatest Workplaces for Parents and Families and America’s Greatest Companies, and Forbes’ 2025 list of Best Employers for Women.
    • Chief Executive Officer Scott Kirby received APEX International’s Lifetime Achievement award for his continued leadership in reimagining the customer journey.
    • United Chief Financial Officer Mike Leskinen was named a Notable Leader in Finance by Crain’s Chicago Business for his strategic foresight and transformative impact on the industry.

    Earnings Call

    UAL will hold a conference call to discuss third-quarter 2025 financial results, as well as its financial and operational outlook for the fourth-quarter 2025 and beyond, on Thursday, October 16, 2025 at 9:30 a.m. CST/10:30 a.m. EST. A live, listen-only webcast of the conference call will be available at ir.united.com. The webcast will be available for replay within 24 hours of the conference call and then archived on the website.

    Outlook

    This press release should be read in conjunction with the company’s Investor Update issued in connection with this quarterly earnings announcement, which provides additional information on the company’s business outlook (including certain financial and operational guidance) and is furnished with this press release to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on a Current Report on Form 8-K. The Investor Update is also available at ir.united.com. Management will also discuss certain business outlook items, including providing certain fourth quarter and full year 2025 financial targets, during the quarterly earnings conference call.

    The company’s business outlook is subject to risks and uncertainties applicable to all forward-looking statements as described elsewhere in this press release. Please see the section entitled “Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements.”

    About United

    At United, Good Leads The Way. With hubs in Chicago, Denver, Houston, Los Angeles, New York/Newark, San Francisco and Washington, D.C., United operates the most comprehensive global route network among North American carriers, and is now the largest airline in the world. For more about how to join the United team, please visit www.united.com/careers and more information about the company is at www.united.com. United Airlines Holdings, Inc., the parent company of United Airlines, Inc., is traded on the Nasdaq under the symbol “UAL”.

    Website and Social Media Information

    We routinely post important news and information regarding United on our corporate website, www.united.com, and our investor relations website, ir.united.com. We use our investor relations website as a primary channel for disclosing key information to our investors, including the timing of future investor conferences and earnings calls, press releases and other information about financial performance (including financial guidance), reports filed or furnished with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, information on corporate governance and details related to our annual meeting of shareholders. We may use our investor relations website as a means of disclosing material, non-public information (including financial guidance) and for complying with our disclosure obligations under Regulation FD. We encourage investors, the media and others interested in the company to visit this website from time to time, as information is updated and new information is posted. We may also use social media channels to communicate with our investors and the public about our company and other matters, and those communications could be deemed to be material information. Our executive officers may also use certain social media channels, such as X and LinkedIn, to communicate information about earnings results and company updates, which may be of interest to our investors or could be deemed to be material information. The information contained on, or that may be accessed through, our website or social media channels are not incorporated by reference into, and are not a part of, this document.

    Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements:
    This press release and the related attachments and Investor Update (as well as the oral statements made with respect to information contained in this release and the attachments) contain certain “forward-looking statements,” within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, relating to, among other things, goals, plans and projections regarding the company’s financial position, results of operations, capital allocation and investments, market position, airline capacity, fleet plan strategy, fares, announced routes (which may be subject to government approval), booking trends, product development, corporate citizenship-related strategy initiatives and business strategy. Such forward-looking statements are based on historical performance and current expectations, estimates, forecasts and projections about the company’s future financial results, goals, plans, commitments, strategies and objectives and involve inherent risks, assumptions and uncertainties, known or unknown, including internal or external factors that could delay, divert or change any of them, that are difficult to predict, may be beyond the company’s control and could cause the company’s future financial results, goals, plans, commitments, strategies and objectives to differ materially from those expressed in, or implied by, the statements. Words such as “should,” “could,” “would,” “will,” “may,” “expects,” “plans,” “intends,” “anticipates,” “indicates,” “remains,” “believes,” “estimates,” “projects,” “forecast,” “guidance,” “outlook,” “goals,” “targets,” “pledge,” “confident,” “optimistic,” “dedicated,” “positioned,” “on track”, “path” and other words and terms of similar meaning and expression are intended to identify forward-looking statements, although not all forward-looking statements contain such terms. All statements, other than those that relate solely to historical facts, are forward-looking statements.

    Additionally, forward-looking statements include conditional statements and statements that identify uncertainties or trends, discuss the possible future effects of known trends or uncertainties, or that indicate that the future effects of known trends or uncertainties cannot be predicted, guaranteed or assured. All forward-looking statements in this release are based upon information available to us on the date of this release. We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events, changed circumstances or otherwise, except as required by applicable law or regulation.

    Our actual results could differ materially from these forward-looking statements due to numerous factors including, without limitation, the following: execution risks associated with our strategic operating plan; changes in our fleet and network strategy or other factors outside our control resulting in less economic aircraft orders, costs related to modification or termination of aircraft orders or entry into aircraft orders on less favorable terms, as well as any inability to accept or integrate new aircraft into our fleet as planned, including as a result of any mandatory groundings of aircraft; any failure to effectively manage, and receive anticipated benefits and returns from, acquisitions, divestitures, investments, joint ventures and other portfolio actions, or related exposures to unknown liabilities or other issues or underperformance as compared to our expectations; adverse publicity, increased regulatory scrutiny, harm to our brand, reduced travel demand, potential tort liability and operational restrictions as a result of an accident, catastrophe or incident involving us, our regional carriers, our codeshare partners or another airline; the highly competitive nature of the global airline industry and susceptibility of the industry to price discounting and changes in capacity, including as a result of alliances, joint business arrangements or other consolidations; our reliance on a limited number of suppliers to source a majority of our aircraft, engines and certain parts, and the impact of any failure to obtain timely deliveries, additional equipment or support from any of these suppliers; disruptions to our regional network and United Express flights provided by third-party regional carriers; unfavorable economic and political conditions in the United States and globally; reliance on third-party service providers and the impact of any significant failure of these parties to perform as expected, or interruptions in our relationships with these providers or their provision of services; extended interruptions or disruptions in service at major airports where we operate and space, facility and infrastructure constraints at our hubs or other airports (including as a result of government shutdowns); geopolitical conflict, terrorist attacks or security events (including the suspension of our overflying in Russian airspace as a result of the Russia-Ukraine military conflict and interruptions of our flying as a result of the military conflicts in the Middle East, as well as any escalation of the broader economic consequences of any conflicts beyond their current scope or a delay in any planned resumption of service to area impacted by conflict); any damage to our reputation or brand image; our reliance on technology and automated systems to operate our business and the impact of any significant failure or disruption of, or failure to effectively integrate and implement, these technologies or systems; increasing privacy, data security and cybersecurity obligations or a significant data breach; increased use of social media platforms by us, our employees and others; the impacts of union disputes, employee strikes or slowdowns, and other labor-related disruptions or regulatory compliance costs on our operations or financial performance; any failure to attract, train or retain skilled personnel, including our senior management team or other key employees; the monetary and operational costs of compliance with extensive government regulation of the airline industry; current or future litigation and regulatory actions, or failure to comply with the terms of any settlement, order or agreement relating to these actions; costs, liabilities and risks associated with environmental regulation and climate change; high and/or volatile fuel prices or significant disruptions in the supply of aircraft fuel; the impacts of our significant amount of financial leverage from fixed obligations and the impacts of insufficient liquidity on our financial condition and business; failure to comply with financial and other covenants governing our debt; limitations on our ability to use our net operating loss carryforwards and certain other tax attributes to offset future taxable income for U.S. federal income tax purposes; our failure to realize the full value of our intangible assets or our long-lived assets, causing us to record impairments; fluctuations in the price of our common stock; the impacts of seasonality, and other factors associated with the airline industry; increases in insurance costs or inadequate insurance coverage; risks relating to our repurchase program for shares of common stock and certain warrants exercisable for common stock; and other risks and uncertainties set forth in Part I, Item 1A. Risk Factors of our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2024 and under “Economic and Market Factors” and “Governmental Actions” in Part I, Item 2. Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations, of our Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, as well as other risks and uncertainties set forth from time to time in the reports we file with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

    Non-GAAP Financial Information:
    In discussing financial results and guidance, the company refers to financial measures that are not in accordance with U.S. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (“GAAP”). The non-GAAP financial measures are provided as supplemental information to the financial measures presented in this press release that are calculated and presented in accordance with GAAP and are presented because management believes that they supplement or enhance management’s, analysts’ and investors’ overall understanding of the company’s underlying financial performance and trends and facilitate comparisons among current, past and future periods. Non-GAAP financial measures typically have exclusions or adjustments that include one or more of the following characteristics, such as being highly variable, difficult to project, unusual in nature, significant to the results of a particular period or not indicative of past or future operating results. These items are excluded because the company believes they neither relate to the ordinary course of the company’s business nor reflect the company’s underlying business performance.

    Because the non-GAAP financial measures are not calculated in accordance with GAAP, they should not be considered superior to and are not intended to be considered in isolation or as a substitute for the related GAAP financial measures presented in the press release and may not be the same as or comparable to similarly titled measures presented by other companies due to possible differences in method and in the items being adjusted. We encourage investors to review our financial statements and publicly-filed reports in their entirety and not to rely on any single financial measure. The company does not provide a reconciliation of forward-looking measures where the company believes such a reconciliation would imply a degree of precision and certainty that could be confusing to investors and is unable to reasonably predict certain items contained in the GAAP measures without unreasonable efforts. This is due to the inherent difficulty of forecasting the timing or amount of various items that have not yet occurred and are out of the company’s control or cannot be reasonably predicted. For the same reasons, the company is unable to address the probable significance of the unavailable information. Forward-looking non-GAAP financial measures provided without the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures may vary materially from the corresponding GAAP financial measures.

    Please refer to the tables accompanying this release for a description of the non-GAAP adjustments and reconciliations of the historical non-GAAP financial measures used to the most comparable GAAP financial measure and related disclosures.

    Change in Presentation:
    In the first quarter of 2025, the Company changed its rounding presentation to the nearest whole number in millions of reported amounts, except per share data or as otherwise designated. As such, certain columns and rows within the financial statements and tables presented may not sum due to rounding. Per unit amounts have been calculated from the underlying whole-dollar amounts. This change is not material and does not impact the comparability of our condensed consolidated financial statements.

    -tables attached-

     UNITED AIRLINES HOLDINGS, INC.

    STATEMENTS OF CONSOLIDATED OPERATIONS (UNAUDITED) 




    Three Months Ended
    September 30,


    %

    Increase/

    (Decrease)



    Nine Months Ended
    September 30,


    %

    Increase/

    (Decrease)

    (In millions, except for percentage changes and per share data)


    2025


    2024




    2025


    2024


    Operating revenue:














    Passenger revenue


    $  13,815


    $  13,561


    1.9



    $  39,512


    $  38,554


    2.5

    Cargo revenue


    431


    417


    3.2



    1,290


    1,222


    5.5

    Other operating revenue


    979


    865


    13.2



    2,872


    2,592


    10.8

    Total operating revenue


    15,225


    14,843


    2.6



    43,673


    42,368


    3.1















    Operating expense:














    Salaries and related costs


    4,555


    4,323


    5.4



    13,123


    12,353


    6.2

    Aircraft fuel


    2,997


    2,993


    0.1



    8,473


    9,080


    (6.7)

    Landing fees and other rent


    1,002


    866


    15.7



    2,836


    2,536


    11.8

    Aircraft maintenance materials and outside repairs


    779


    765


    1.8



    2,374


    2,254


    5.3

    Depreciation and amortization


    730


    742


    (1.6)



    2,191


    2,169


    1.0

    Regional capacity purchase


    686


    651


    5.3



    2,012


    1,848


    8.9

    Distribution expenses


    555


    574


    (3.3)



    1,538


    1,680


    (8.4)

    Aircraft rent


    54


    65


    (16.7)



    172


    148


    16.4

    Special charges (credits)


    (73)


    (5)


    NM



    266


    44


    NM

    Other operating expenses


    2,546


    2,304


    10.5



    7,359


    6,663


    10.4

    Total operating expense


    13,830


    13,278


    4.2



    40,345


    38,775


    4.1















    Operating income


    1,395


    1,565


    (10.8)



    3,328


    3,593


    (7.4)















    Nonoperating income (expense):














    Interest expense


    (331)


    (379)


    (12.6)



    (1,048)


    (1,260)


    (16.8)

    Interest income


    142


    187


    (23.9)



    473


    554


    (14.6)

    Interest capitalized


    53


    53


    0.2



    152


    174


    (12.9)

    Unrealized losses on investments, net


    (13)


    (90)


    NM



    (8)


    (160)


    NM

    Miscellaneous, net


    9


    (50)


    NM



    86


    (40)


    NM

    Total nonoperating expense, net


    (141)


    (279)


    (49.6)



    (346)


    (732)


    (52.7)















    Income before income taxes


    1,255


    1,286


    (2.4)



    2,981


    2,861


    4.2















    Income tax expense


    306


    321


    (4.7)



    672


    697


    (3.6)

    Net income


    $       949


    $       965


    (1.7)



    $    2,309


    $    2,164


    6.7















    Earnings per share, diluted


    $      2.90


    $      2.90




    $      7.02


    $      6.49


    8.2

    Diluted weighted-average shares outstanding


    326.9


    332.7


    (1.7)



    329.0


    333.3


    (1.3)

    NM-Greater than 100% change or otherwise not meaningful.














    UNITED AIRLINES HOLDINGS, INC.

    PASSENGER REVENUE INFORMATION AND STATISTICS (UNAUDITED)


    Information is as follows (in millions, except for percentage changes):



    3Q 2025

    Passenger

    Revenue


    Passenger

    Revenue

    vs.

    3Q 2024


    Passenger
    Revenue
    per
    Available
    Seat Mile
    (“PRASM”)
    vs.
    3Q 2024


    Yield vs. 3Q 2024


    Available

    Seat Miles (“ASMs”)

    vs.

    3Q 2024


    3Q 2025 
    ASMs


    3Q 2025
    Revenue
    Passenger
    Miles
    (“RPMs”)

    Domestic

    $         8,099


    3.1 %


    (3.3 %)


    (2.2 %)


    6.6 %


    46,648


    39,815















    Europe

    2,933


    (1.3 %)


    (7.3 %)


    (6.0 %)


    6.5 %


    19,063


    16,238

    Middle East/India/Africa

    347


    30.8 %


    6.1 %


    4.5 %


    23.3 %


    2,285


    1,954

    Atlantic

    3,280


    1.3 %


    (6.2 %)


    (5.2 %)


    8.0 %


    21,348


    18,192

    Pacific

    1,359


    1.8 %


    (3.9 %)


    (5.1 %)


    5.9 %


    11,079


    8,684

    Latin America

    1,078


    (4.8 %)


    (13.5 %)


    (10.7 %)


    10.1 %


    8,342


    7,079

    International

    5,717


    0.2 %


    (7.1 %)


    (6.3 %)


    7.9 %


    40,769


    33,954















    Consolidated

    $       13,815


    1.9 %


    (5.0 %)


    (4.0 %)


    7.2 %


    87,417


    73,769















    Select operating statistics are as follows:




    Three Months Ended
    September 30,


    %

    Increase/

    (Decrease)


    Nine Months Ended
    September 30,


    %

    Increase/

    (Decrease)




    2025


    2024



    2025


    2024



    Passengers (thousands) (a)


    48,382


    45,559


    6.2



    135,374


    129,259


    4.7


    RPMs (millions) (b)


    73,769


    69,549


    6.1



    203,374


    194,040


    4.8


    ASMs (millions) (c)


    87,417


    81,541


    7.2



    246,919


    232,887


    6.0


    Passenger load factor: (d)















    Consolidated


    84.4 %


    85.3 %


    (0.9)

    pts.


    82.4 %


    83.3 %


    (0.9)

    pts.

    Domestic


    85.4 %


    86.4 %


    (1.0)

    pt.


    83.3 %


    85.5 %


    (2.2)

    pts.

    International


    83.3 %


    84.0 %


    (0.7)

    pts.


    81.2 %


    80.8 %


    0.4

    pts.

    PRASM (cents)


    15.80


    16.63


    (5.0)



    16.00


    16.55


    (3.3)


    Total revenue per available seat mile (“TRASM”) (cents)


    17.42


    18.20


    (4.3)



    17.69


    18.19


    (2.8)


    Average yield per RPM (cents) (e)


    18.73


    19.50


    (4.0)



    19.43


    19.87


    (2.2)


    Cargo revenue ton miles (millions) (f)


    890


    881


    1.0



    2,663


    2,623


    1.5


    Aircraft in fleet at end of period


    1,486


    1,381


    7.6



    1,486


    1,381


    7.6


    Average stage length (miles) (g)


    1,509


    1,510


    (0.1)



    1,491


    1,503


    (0.8)


    Employee headcount, as of September 30 (thousands)


    111.9


    106.5


    5.1



    111.9


    106.5


    5.1


    Cost per ASM (“CASM”) (cents)


    15.82


    16.28


    (2.8)



    16.34


    16.65


    (1.9)


    CASM-ex (cents) (h)


    12.15


    12.26


    (0.9)



    12.53


    12.47


    0.5


    Average aircraft fuel price per gallon


    $   2.43


    $   2.56


    (5.1)



    $  2.43


    $  2.73


    (11.0)


    Fuel gallons consumed (millions)


    1,233


    1,170


    5.4



    3,488


    3,329


    4.8


    (a)

    The number of revenue passengers measured by each flight segment flown.

    (b)

    The number of scheduled miles flown by revenue passengers.

    (c)

    The number of seats available for passengers multiplied by the number of scheduled miles those seats are flown.

    (d)

    RPMs divided by ASMs.

    (e)

    The average passenger revenue received for each RPM flown.

    (f)

    The number of cargo revenue tons transported multiplied by the number of miles flown.

    (g)

    Average distance a flight travels weighted for size of aircraft.

    (h)   CASM-ex is CASM less the impact of fuel expense, profit sharing, special charges and third-party business expenses. See NON-GAAP FINANCIAL INFORMATION for a reconciliation of CASM-ex to CASM, the most comparable GAAP measure.

    UNITED AIRLINES HOLDINGS, INC.

    1 NON-GAAP FINANCIAL INFORMATION

    UAL evaluates its financial performance utilizing various accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America (GAAP) and non-GAAP financial measures. The non-GAAP financial measures are provided as supplemental information to the financial measures presented in this press release that are calculated and presented in accordance with GAAP and are presented because management believes that they supplement or enhance management’s, analysts’ and investors’ overall understanding of the company’s underlying financial performance and trends and facilitate comparisons among current, past and future periods.

    Because the non-GAAP financial measures are not calculated in accordance with GAAP, they should not be considered superior to and are not intended to be considered in isolation or as a substitute for the related GAAP financial measures presented in the press release and may not be the same as or comparable to similarly titled measures presented by other companies due to possible differences in method and in the items being adjusted. We encourage investors to review our financial statements and publicly-filed reports in their entirety and not to rely on any single financial measure.

    The information below provides an explanation of certain adjustments reflected in the non-GAAP financial measures and shows a reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures reported in this press release to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures. Within the financial tables presented, certain columns and rows may not add due to the use of rounded numbers. Percentages, ratios and earnings per share amounts presented are calculated from the underlying amounts.

    CASM-ex: CASM is a common metric used in the airline industry to measure an airline’s cost structure and efficiency. UAL reports CASM excluding special charges, third-party business expenses, fuel expense, and profit sharing. UAL believes that adjusting for special charges is useful to investors because those items are not indicative of UAL’s ongoing performance. UAL also believes that excluding third-party business expenses, such as maintenance, flight academy, ground handling and catering services for third parties, provides more meaningful disclosure because these expenses are not directly related to UAL’s core business. UAL also believes that excluding fuel expense from certain measures is useful to investors because it provides an additional measure of management’s performance excluding the effects of a significant cost item over which management has limited influence. UAL excludes profit sharing because it believes that this exclusion allows investors to better understand and analyze UAL’s operating cost performance and provides a more meaningful comparison of our core operating costs to the airline industry.

    Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDAR: We calculate Adjusted EBITDA by adding interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization to net income and adjusting for special charges, nonoperating unrealized (gains) losses on investments, net and nonoperating debt extinguishment and modification fees. UAL believes that adjusting for these items is useful to investors because they are not indicative of UAL’s ongoing performance. Effective January 1, 2025, Adjusted EBITDA is further adjusted by the fixed portion of operating lease expense, instead of solely aircraft rent as was the case historically, to calculate Adjusted EBITDAR. We believe this change provides investors with enhanced comparability to peers and better reflects our performance. The change in EBITDAR calculation methodology does not represent a change in management’s expectations. Prior period amounts have been recast to conform to the current period presentation.

    Adjusted Capital Expenditures: UAL believes that adjusting capital expenditures for assets acquired through the issuance or modification of debt, finance leases and other financial liabilities is useful to investors in order to appropriately reflect the total amounts spent on capital expenditures.

    Free Cash Flow: Effective January 1, 2025, we define free cash flow as the sum of net cash from operating activities and net cash from investing activities, adjusted for the net change in short-term investments and the net change in restricted cash. We believe adjusting for short-term investments and restricted cash activity provides investors a better understanding of the company’s free cash flow generated by our core operations. The change in free cash flow calculation methodology does not represent a change in management’s expectations. We believe this change provides investors with enhanced comparability to peers and better reflects our performance. Prior period amounts have been recast to conform to the current period presentation.

    Free Cash Conversion: Free cash conversion is a non-GAAP financial measure that is equal to free cash flow divided by adjusted net income. UAL provides free cash conversion because it provides a better understanding of the company’s free cash flow generated by our core operations relative to our profitability. We are not providing a target for or a reconciliation to net cash provided by operating activities or net income, the most directly comparable GAAP measures, because we are unable to predict the excluded items contained in the GAAP measure without unreasonable efforts, and therefore we also are not able to determine the probable significance of such items.

    Adjusted Total Debt and Adjusted Net Debt: Adjusted total debt is a non-GAAP financial measure that includes current and long-term debt, finance lease obligations and other financial liabilities, current and noncurrent operating lease obligations and noncurrent pension and postretirement obligations. Adjusted net debt is adjusted total debt minus cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments. UAL provides adjusted total debt and adjusted net debt because we believe these measures provide useful supplemental information for assessing the company’s debt and debt-like obligation profile. 

    Net Leverage: Net leverage is a non-GAAP financial measure that is equal to adjusted net debt divided by trailing twelve month Adjusted EBITDAR. UAL provides net leverage because we believe it provides useful supplemental information for assessing the company’s debt level. See the above descriptions of Adjusted Net Debt and Adjusted EBITDAR.



    Three Months Ended
    September 30,


    %

    Increase/

    (Decrease)


    Nine Months Ended
    September 30,


    %

    Increase/

    (Decrease)

    CASM-ex (in cents, except for percentage changes)


    2025


    2024



    2025


    2024


    CASM (GAAP)


    15.82


    16.28


    (2.8)


    16.34


    16.65


    (1.9)

    Fuel expense


    3.43


    3.68


    (6.8)


    3.43


    3.90


    (12.0)

    Profit sharing


    0.26


    0.28


    (6.8)


    0.19


    0.18


    3.4

    Third-party business expenses


    0.07


    0.07


    (3.5)


    0.08


    0.08


    1.1

    Special charges


    (0.08)


    (0.01)


    NM


    0.11


    0.02


    NM

    CASM-ex (Non-GAAP) 


    12.15


    12.26


    (0.9)


    12.53


    12.47


    0.5

    UNITED AIRLINES HOLDINGS, INC.

    NON-GAAP FINANCIAL INFORMATION (Continued)




    Three Months Ended
    September 30,


    Nine Months Ended
    September 30,


    Twelve Months Ended
    September 30,

    Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDAR (in millions)


    2025


    2024


    2025


    2024


    2025


    2024

    Net income (GAAP)


    $    949


    $    965


    $ 2,309


    $ 2,164


    $  3,295


    $  2,764

    Adjusted for:













    Depreciation and amortization


    730


    742


    2,191


    2,169


    2,950


    2,853

    Interest expense, net of capitalized interest and interest income


    136


    139


    424


    532


    569


    755

    Income tax expense


    306


    321


    672


    697


    994


    868

    Special charges (credits)


    (73)


    (5)


    266


    44


    335


    91

    Nonoperating unrealized losses on investments, net


    13


    90


    8


    160


    47


    187

    Nonoperating debt extinguishment and modification fees


    20


    75


    20


    110


    39


    110

    Adjusted EBITDA (non-GAAP)


    $ 2,081


    $ 2,327


    $ 5,890


    $ 5,876


    $  8,229


    $  7,628

    Adjusted EBITDA margin (non-GAAP)


    13.7 %


    15.7 %


    13.5 %


    13.9 %


    14.1 %


    13.6 %














    Adjusted EBITDA (non-GAAP)


    $ 2,081


    $ 2,327


    $ 5,890


    $ 5,876


    $  8,229


    $  7,628

    Fixed portion of operating lease expense


    221


    232


    654


    644


    866


    873

    Adjusted EBITDAR (non-GAAP) (a)


    $ 2,302


    $ 2,559


    $ 6,545


    $ 6,520


    $  9,095


    $  8,501














    (a) The prior period has been recast to conform to current period presentation.











    Three Months Ended
    September 30,


    Nine Months Ended
    September 30,

    Adjusted Capital Expenditures (in millions)

    2025


    2024


    2025


    2024

    Capital expenditures, net of flight equipment purchase deposit returns
    (GAAP)

    $           1,464


    $           1,410


    $           3,984


    $           3,940

    Property and equipment acquired through the issuance or
    modification of debt, finance leases and other financial liabilities


    48


    (52)


    (156)

    Operating leases converted to finance leases

    417


    52


    417


    96

    Adjusted capital expenditures (Non-GAAP)

    $           1,881


    $           1,510


    $           4,349


    $           3,880



    Three Months Ended
    September 30,


    Nine Months Ended
    September 30,


    Twelve Months Ended
    September 30,

    Free Cash Flow (in millions) (a)


    2025


    2024


    2025


    2024


    2025


    2024

    Net cash provided by operating activities (GAAP)


    $      1,218


    $      1,498


    $      7,145


    $      7,221


    $      9,370


    $      6,311

    Net cash provided by (used in) investing activities (GAAP)


    (1,743)


    (2,511)


    (4,785)


    (936)


    (6,500)


    (1,679)

    Adjusted for:













    Net change in short-term investments


    337


    968


    893


    (2,977)


    1,247


    (4,255)

    Net change in restricted cash


    35


    35


    36


    61


    74


    416

    Free cash flow (Non-GAAP)


    $       (153)


    $         (10)


    $      3,289


    $      3,369


    $      4,191


    $         793














    (a) The prior period has been recast to conform to current period presentation.



    September 30,


     

    Increase/

    (Decrease)

    Adjusted Total Debt, Adjusted Net Debt and Net Leverage (in millions)


    2025


    2024


    Debt, finance lease obligations and other financial liabilities – current and noncurrent (GAAP)


    $ 25,428


    $ 28,436


    $      (3,008)


    Operating lease obligations – current and noncurrent


    5,894


    4,923


    971


    Pension and postretirement liabilities – noncurrent


    974


    1,624


    (650)


    Adjusted total debt (Non-GAAP)


    $ 32,296


    $ 34,983


    (2,687)


    Less: Cash and cash equivalents


    $   6,730


    $   8,812


    (2,082)


             Short-term investments


    6,599


    5,352


    1,247


    Adjusted net debt (Non-GAAP)


    $ 18,967


    $ 20,819


    (1,852)


    Net leverage (Non-GAAP) (a)


    2.1


    2.4


    (0.3)

    pts.

    (a) The prior period has been recast to conform to current period presentation.







    UNITED AIRLINES HOLDINGS, INC.

    NON-GAAP FINANCIAL INFORMATION (Continued)



    Three Months Ended
    September 30,


    %

    Increase/

    (Decrease)



    Nine Months Ended
    September 30,


    %

    Increase/

    (Decrease)


    (in millions, except for percentage changes and per share data)

    2025


    2024




    2025


    2024



    Operating expenses (GAAP)

    $ 13,830


    $ 13,278


    4.2



    $ 40,345


    $ 38,775


    4.1


    Special charges (credits)

    (73)


    (5)


    NM



    266


    44


    NM


    Operating expenses, excluding special charges

    13,903


    13,283


    4.7



    40,079


    38,731


    3.5


    Adjusted to exclude:














    Fuel expense

    2,997


    2,993


    0.1



    8,473


    9,080


    (6.7)


    Profit sharing

    228


    231


    (1.2)



    459


    419


    9.7


    Third-party business expenses

    59


    61


    (3.2)



    200


    183


    9.1


    Adjusted operating expenses (Non-GAAP)

    $ 10,619


    $   9,998


    6.2



    $ 30,947


    $ 29,049


    6.5
















    Operating income (GAAP)

    $   1,395


    $   1,565


    (10.8)



    $   3,328


    $   3,593


    (7.4)


    Special charges (credits)

    (73)


    (5)


    NM



    266


    44


    NM


    Adjusted operating income (Non-GAAP)

    $   1,322


    $   1,560


    (15.2)



    $   3,594


    $   3,637


    (1.2)
















    Operating margin

    9.2 %


    10.5 %


    (1.4)

    pts.


    7.6 %


    8.5 %


    (0.9)

    pts.

    Adjusted operating margin (Non-GAAP)

    8.7 %


    10.5 %


    (1.8)

    pts.


    8.2 %


    8.6 %


    (0.4)

    pts.















    Pre-tax income (GAAP)

    $   1,255


    $   1,286


    (2.4)



    $   2,981


    $   2,861


    4.2


    Adjusted to exclude:














    Special charges (credits)

    (73)


    (5)


    NM



    266


    44


    NM


    Unrealized losses on investments, net

    13


    90


    NM



    8


    160


    NM


    Debt extinguishment and modification fees

    20


    75


    NM



    20


    110


    NM


    Adjusted pre-tax income (Non-GAAP)

    $   1,215


    $   1,446


    (16.0)



    $   3,276


    $   3,175


    3.2
















    Pre-tax margin (GAAP)

    8.2 %


    8.7 %


    (0.4)

    pts.


    6.8 %


    6.8 %


    pts.

    Adjusted pre-tax margin (Non-GAAP)

    8.0 %


    9.7 %


    (1.8)

    pts.


    7.5 %


    7.5 %


    pts.















     Net income (GAAP)

    $      949


    $      965


    (1.7)



    $   2,309


    $   2,164


    6.7


    Adjusted to exclude:














    Special charges (credits)

    (73)


    (5)


    NM



    266


    44


    NM


    Unrealized losses on investments, net

    13


    90


    NM



    8


    160


    NM


    Debt extinguishment and modification fees

    20


    75


    NM



    20


    110


    NM


    Income tax benefit on adjustments, net


    (15)


    NM



    (127)


    (34)


    NM


    Adjusted net income (Non-GAAP)

    $      909


    $   1,110


    (18.1)



    $   2,477


    $   2,444


    1.4
















     Diluted earnings per share (GAAP)

    $     2.90


    $     2.90




    $     7.02


    $     6.49


    8.2


    Adjusted to exclude:














    Special charges (credits)

    (0.22)


    (0.01)


    NM



    0.81


    0.13


    NM


    Unrealized losses on investments, net

    0.04


    0.27


    NM



    0.03


    0.48


    NM


    Debt extinguishment and modification fees

    0.06


    0.22


    NM



    0.06


    0.33


    NM


    Income tax benefit on adjustments, net 


    (0.05)


    NM



    (0.39)


    (0.10)


    NM


    Adjusted diluted earnings per share (Non-GAAP)

    $     2.78


    $     3.33


    (16.5)



    $     7.53


    $     7.33


    2.7


    UNITED AIRLINES HOLDINGS, INC.

    CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS

     


     (in millions)

    September 30, 2025
    (UNAUDITED)


    December 31, 2024

    ASSETS




    Cash and cash equivalents

    $                         6,730


    $                     8,769

    Short-term investments

    6,599


    5,706

    Receivables, net

    2,433


    2,163

    Aircraft fuel, spare parts and supplies, net

    1,588


    1,572

    Prepaid expenses and other

    744


    673

    Total current assets

    18,094


    18,883

    Operating property and equipment, net

    44,968


    42,908

    Operating lease right-of-use assets

    4,821


    3,815

    Goodwill

    4,527


    4,527

    Intangible assets, net

    2,662


    2,683

    Investments in affiliates and other, net

    1,242


    1,267

    Total noncurrent assets

    58,219


    55,200

    Total assets

    $                       76,313


    $                   74,083





    LIABILITIES AND STOCKHOLDERS’ EQUITY




    Accounts payable

    $                         4,636


    $                     4,193

    Accrued salaries and benefits

    3,555


    3,289

    Advance ticket sales

    9,338


    7,561

    Frequent flyer deferred revenue

    3,642


    3,403

    Current maturities of long-term debt, finance leases, and other financial liabilities

    4,621


    3,453

    Current maturities of operating leases

    563


    467

    Other

    763


    948

    Total current liabilities

    27,119


    23,314

    Long-term debt, finance leases, and other financial liabilities

    20,807


    25,203

    Long-term obligations under operating leases

    5,331


    4,510

    Frequent flyer deferred revenue

    4,060


    4,038

    Pension and postretirement benefit liability

    974


    1,233

    Deferred income taxes

    2,206


    1,580

    Other

    1,508


    1,530

    Total noncurrent liabilities

    34,886


    38,094

    Total stockholders’ equity

    14,309


    12,675

    Total liabilities and stockholders’ equity

    $                       76,313


    $                   74,083

    UNITED AIRLINES HOLDINGS, INC.

    CONDENSED STATEMENTS OF CONSOLIDATED CASH FLOWS (UNAUDITED)

     


     (in millions)

    Nine Months Ended September 30,


    2025


    2024

    Operating Activities:




    Net cash provided by operating activities

    $              7,145


    $              7,221





    Investing Activities:




    Capital expenditures, net of flight equipment purchase deposit returns

    (3,984)


    (3,940)

    Purchases of short-term and other investments

    (6,454)


    (4,057)

    Proceeds from sale of short-term and other investments

    5,654


    7,206

    Proceeds from sale of property and equipment

    63


    66

    Other, net

    (64)


    (211)

    Net cash used in investing activities

    (4,785)


    (936)





    Financing Activities:




    Proceeds from issuance of debt and other financial liabilities, net of discounts and fees

    485


    5,302

    Payments of long-term debt, finance leases and other financial liabilities

    (4,196)


    (8,792)

    Repurchases of common stock

    (610)


    (82)

    Other, net

    (114)


    (19)

    Net cash used in financing activities

    (4,436)


    (3,591)

    Net increase (decrease) in cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash

    (2,075)


    2,694

    Cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash at beginning of the period

    8,946


    6,334

    Cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash at end of the period (a)

    $              6,871


    $              9,028





    Investing and Financing Activities Not Affecting Cash:




    Right-of-use assets acquired or modified through operating leases

    $              1,382


    $                 395

    Property and equipment acquired through the issuance or modification of debt, finance leases and
    other financial liabilities

    (52)


    (156)

    Operating leases converted to finance leases

    417


    96

    Investment interests received in exchange for loans, goods and services

    16


    19

    (a) The following table provides a reconciliation of cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash to amounts reported within the condensed consolidated balance sheets:

    Cash and cash equivalents

    $              6,730


    $              8,812

    Restricted cash in Prepaid expenses and other


    36

    Restricted cash in Investments in affiliates and other, net

    141


    180

    Total cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash

    $              6,871


    $              9,028

    UNITED AIRLINES HOLDINGS, INC.

    NOTES (UNAUDITED)


     Special charges (credits) and unrealized losses on investments, net include the following:




    Three Months Ended
    September 30,


    Nine Months Ended
    September 30,

    (in millions)


    2025


    2024


    2025


    2024

    Operating:









    Labor contract ratification bonuses


    $          —


    $          —


    $       561


    $          —

    (Gains) losses on sale of assets and other special charges


    (73)


    (5)


    (295)


    44

    Total operating special charges (credits)


    (73)


    (5)


    266


    44










    Nonoperating:









    Nonoperating unrealized losses on investments, net


    13


    90


    8


    160

    Nonoperating debt extinguishment and modification fees


    20


    75


    20


    110

         Total nonoperating special charges and unrealized losses on investments, net


    33


    165


    28


    270

    Total operating and nonoperating special charges (credits) and unrealized losses on
    investments, net


    (40)


    160


    295


    314

    Income tax benefit, net of valuation allowance



    (15)


    (127)


    (34)

        Total operating and nonoperating special charges (credits) and unrealized losses on
    investments, net of income taxes


    $        (40)


    $        145


    $       168


    $       280

    Operating and nonoperating special charges (credits) and unrealized losses on investments included the following:

    During the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025, the company recorded $73 million and $295 million, respectively, of net gains on sale of assets and other special charges, which were primarily comprised of $75 million and $336 million, respectively, of gains on various aircraft sale-leaseback transactions.

    During the nine months ended September 30, 2025, the company also recorded a $561 million special charge in connection with a labor contract ratification bonus for the company’s employees represented by the Association of Flight Attendants.

    Effective tax rate:

    The company’s effective tax rates were as follows:


    Three Months Ended September
    30,


    Nine Months Ended September
    30,


    2025


    2024


    2025


    2024

    Effective tax rate

    24.4 %


    25.0 %


    22.5 %


    24.4 %

    The provision for income taxes is based on the estimated annual effective tax rate, which represents a blend of federal, state and foreign taxes and includes the impact of certain nondeductible items. The decrease in the effective tax rate in the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025, as compared to the same period in 2024, was primarily due to a release of valuation allowance related to realized capital gains.














    1

    For additional information about the non-GAAP financial measures used in this press release, see “Non-GAAP Financial Information” below.

    2

    Adjusted diluted earnings per share is a non-GAAP financial measure that excludes operating and non-operating special charges and unrealized (gains) losses on investments, net and income tax benefit on adjustments, net. We are not providing a target for or a reconciliation to diluted earnings per share, the most directly comparable GAAP measure, because we are unable to predict the excluded items noted above contained in the GAAP measure without unreasonable efforts, and therefore we also are not able to determine the probable significance of such items. For additional information about United’s adjusted diluted earnings per share guidance, please refer to the Investor Update issued in connection with this quarterly earnings announcement.

    3

    Excluding years impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic – 2020 and 2021.

    4

    Includes cash, cash equivalents, short-term investments and undrawn credit facilities.

    5

    Effective January 1, 2025, we define Adjusted EBITDAR, which is included in the calculation of net leverage on a trailing twelve month basis, to include an additional adjustment for the fixed portion of operating lease expense, instead of solely aircraft rent as was the case historically. For additional information about the non-GAAP financial measures used in this press release, including net leverage and Adjusted EBITDAR, see “Non-GAAP Financial Information” below.



    SOURCE United Airlines

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  • Sovereign Debt Market Volatility Japan France

    Sovereign Debt Market Volatility Japan France

    Betsy Graseck: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I’m Betsy Graseck, Morgan Stanley’s U.S. Large Cap Banks Analyst and Global Head of Banks and Diversified Finance Research.

     

    Michael Cyprys: And I’m Mike Cyprys, Head of U.S. Brokers, Asset Managers and Exchanges Research.

     

    Betsy Graseck: The asset management and wealth management industries are on the cusp of major consolidation. We’re going to unpack today what’s driving the race for scale and what it means for investors and the industries at large.

     

    It is Monday, October 13th at 4pm in New York.

     

    Mike, before we dive into the setup for M&A, I did want to get out here on the table. What’s your outlook for the asset management industry?

     

    Michael Cyprys: Sure. So, asset management today is, call it, $135 trillion industry, in terms of assets under management that are managed for a fee. We expect it to grow at about an 8 percent clip annually over the next five years. And that’s driven by faster growth in private markets, solutions and passive strategies, while we expect to see slower growth in the core active arena.

     

    Two key drivers of growth there. First private markets. We expect to see rising investor allocations from both institutional investors, but also more importantly from retail investors that remain early days in accessing the asset class. So, as we look out in the coming years, we do expect this democratization of private markets to play out, and we see that being helped by product innovation, investor education and technology advances that are all helping unlock access.

     

    Second growth driver is solutions. And I think you’re looking at me a little dazed on what’s solutions. And by that we really mean products and strategies that are addressing demographic challenges around aging populations. So, think about that as solutions that provide for retirement income, as well as those that offer tax efficient solutions. So, think about that as model portfolios, as well as sub-advisory mandates. We also expect to see growth in outsourced Chief Investment Officer, OCIO mandates and broadly retirement focused products.

     

    So that’s the asset management industry in terms of our outlook. Betsy, what’s your outlook for the growth in the wealth management industry?

     

    Betsy Graseck: Well, somewhat similar, but a little bit slower – off of a larger base. What does that mean? So, we are looking for global growth in wealth management of a 5.5 percent CAGR, and that is off of a base of [$]301 trillion, which is intriguing, right? Because that’s larger than the [$]135 trillion you mentioned for asset management.

     

    So, in wealth, we were expecting [$]301 trillion in 2024 grows to [$]393 trillion in 2029. And within the wealth industry, what we see as the driver for incremental opportunities here is both in the ultra high net worth segment as well as the affluent segments, as client needs evolve and technology delivers improving efficiencies.

     

    And I think one of the interesting things here – as we think about the look forward from industry perspective – is the fact that both asset management and wealth management industries have been very fragmented for a very long time, especially relative to other financial industries. I think one reason is that they need less capital to operate successfully.

     

    But Mike, back to the asset management industry, specifically deal activity seems to be inching up. What are you attributing this increase in M&A to?

     

    Michael Cyprys: Yeah, so we do see M&A picking up, and we expect that to continue over the next couple of years. A number of reasons for that. First growth is becoming a bit more scarce, with clients working with fewer partners. And over the next five years, we expect the number of available slots to continue to decline upwards of a third, which concentrates growth opportunities.

     

    Betsy Graseck: Wait, wait, wait. Upwards of a third. And number of slots. When you say number of slots, you’re talking about it from the asset manager client perspective…

     

    Michael Cyprys: Correct. From the asset owner standpoint or intermediary standpoint…

     

    Betsy Graseck: They’re looking to consolidate their providers?

     

    Michael Cyprys: Correct.

     

    Betsy Graseck: Okay.

     

    Michael Cyprys: They’re looking to work with fewer asset managers.

     

    Betsy Graseck: Mm-hmm.

     

    Michael Cyprys: At the same time, the winners are taking more share, right? So, our work shows that the largest firms are disproportionately capturing a larger share of net new money as they leveraged their scale to reinvest in capabilities as well as in relationships.

     

    And also, I’d point to the fact that we have seen a pickup in deal activity already. And we think that’s going to lead more firms to consider strategic activity themselves, as they think and rethink what constitutes scale. And we think that that bar is rising…

     

    Betsy Graseck: Mm. 

     

    Michael Cyprys: And firms are thinking about how to compete effectively as the landscape evolves. And look, this is all in the context of already a lot of challenges and changes happening as you think about evolving client needs. The rising cost of doing business, whether it’s investing for growth or even harnessing AI, and that’s all pressuring profitability. We think this is particularly a challenge for those mid-size money managers that are multi-asset, multi-liquid and global. Those with, call it, [$] 0.5 trillion to [$]2 trillion in size, making them more likely to pursue consolidation, opportunities to bolster their capabilities and scale while also generating cost efficiencies.

     

    Betsy Graseck: So now looking forward, what type of deals do you expect and how does it differ from past years?

     

    Michael Cyprys: Sure. So, a few things are different than past years. First is that the deal activity is encompassing many forms of partnership. And we think that this experimentation around partnership will only accelerate. That allows, for example, for private market managers to access retail distribution without owning the end infrastructure and the last mile to the customer. It also allows traditional managers to provide their retail customers with access to high quality private market strategies from well-known and branded firms.

     

    Second is we see a broadening out of the types of acquisitions themselves when we talk about M&A, right? So, three types of deals. First are deals within the same vertical or intersector. So, think about this as an asset manager buying another asset manager to acquire capabilities, to gain cost synergies or bolster distribution.

     

    Second type of deals that we’re seeing are ones that expand beyond one’s own vertical. So intersector deals. So, asset management combining with wealth or insurance, for example, where firms would seek to own a larger, greater portion of the overall value chain. And so, these firms are getting closer to that end client. For example, an asset manager getting closer to that end customer. And the third type being financial sponsor deals where a sponsor is investing either as an in an asset or a wealth manager.

     

    Now you didn’t ask me around the historical outcomes of M&A. But I would say that the historical outcomes have been mixed in the asset management space. But here we think that the opportunity ahead is so bright that we think firms will find ways to navigate and pursue strategic activity. But it does require addressing some of the culture and integration challenges that have plagued some of the deals in the past.

     

    Betsy Graseck: Okay.

     

    Michael Cyprys: So, Betsy, what do you see as the key drivers of consolidation in wealth management?

     

    Betsy Graseck: There’s several. From the wealth manager side, number one is an aging population of advisor and advisor-owners, and the need to address succession and how to best serve their clients when passing on their book of business. So, we’ve got succession issues as the number one driver. But additionally, the need for scale is clearly getting higher and higher, given the costs of IT infrastructure rising, the needs to be able to leverage AI effectively and to manage your cyber risk effectively. These are just some of the drivers of desire to merge, from the wealth manager perspective.

     

    Second. We have an increasing buying pool. If you just look at the large cap banks, for example. Significant amount of excess capital. Could we see some of that excess capital be put to work in the wealth management industry? To me, that would make sense. Why? Because wealth management is one of the best, if not the best financial institution service for shareholders. It is a high ROE business. It also is a business that commands a high multiple in the stock market.

     

    So, we would not be surprised to see activity there over the course of the next several years. So, Mike, thanks for joining me on the show today.

     

    Michael Cyprys: Thanks, Betsy. Always a pleasure.

     

    Betsy Graseck: And to our listeners, thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

     

     

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  • MINI and Paul Smith at the Japan Mobility Show 2025.

    MINI and Paul Smith at the Japan Mobility Show 2025.

    Munich / Tokyo. The Japan Mobility Show 2025 becomes
    the stage for the latest milestone in the long-standing collaboration
    between MINI and British designer Paul Smith. It will be unveiled as
    part of the BMW Group Keynote on 29 October 2025 at 09:55 (JST) at the
    BMW Group stand, based in the West Exhibition Hall of the show.

    MINI and Paul Smith: A creative success story.

    The MINI Paul Smith Edition is a new chapter in the success story of
    the two British brands. The long-lasting relationship began in 1998,
    when the designer wrapped a Classic Mini Cooper in his trademark
    visual design. To mark the 40th anniversary of the Classic Mini in
    1999, the designer lent his characteristic Paul Smith “Signature
    Stripe” to a one-off model. After two further one-offs – the MINI
    Strip in 2021 and the MINI Recharged by Paul Smith in 2022 – Paul
    Smith’s design language returns to MINI. 

    MINI model portfolio.

    As part of the BMW Group stand at the Japan Mobility Show, MINI is
    presenting the diverse range of its current product portfolio. The
    MINI Cooper family is represented by showcasing the MINI Cooper SE,
    which combines heritage, technology and driving pleasure. Whilst
    providing a fully electric go-kart feeling via the 218 hp electric
    powertrain. Also present will be the MINI Cooper 5-door S, which
    combines compact dimensions and agility whilst showcasing increased
    practicality when compared to its 3-door siblings. A MINI Cooper
    Convertible will also be on show, which presents open-air driving in
    the spirit of its ‘Always Open’ philosophy: agile, spontaneous and
    full of driving pleasure.Launched earlier this year, the MINI John
    Cooper Works Aceman outlines its sporty all-electric useable
    performance from the John Cooper Works sub-brand. The latest model in
    the MINI family presents itself as a versatile companion and not only
    demonstrates MINIs typical “Clever Use of Space” – but also
    brings a powerful driving experience to the road as a
    performance-enhanced version thanks to 258 hp produced from the 54.2
    kWh electric battery. Finally, the MINI Countryman S ALL 4 will also
    be present on the BMW Group stand at the Japan Mobility Show: as the
    largest of the MINI family, the car offers generous space and fits in
    perfectly for those looking for longer adventures and spontaneous exploring.

    Japan Mobility Show.

    The Japan Mobility Show is regarded as one of the most important
    international platforms for pioneering mobility concepts. From October
    29 to November 9, over 130 exhibitors will be presenting their
    innovations to visitors and press at the Tokyo Big Sight exhibition
    centre – making the Japanese capital the centre for visions of
    tomorrow’s mobility.

     

    In case of queries, please contact:

    Corporate Communications

    Franziska Liebert, Spokesperson MINI

    Phone: +49-151-601-28030
    E-mail: franziska.liebert@mini.com

    Micaela Sandstede, Head of Communications MINI

    Phone: +49-176-601-61611
    E-mail: micaela.sandstede@bmw.de

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  • ‘Dangerous’ fake Labubu dolls seized in Liverpool shop raids

    ‘Dangerous’ fake Labubu dolls seized in Liverpool shop raids

    Almost 100 fake Labubu dolls were seized by police in Liverpool who have warned about the risks posed by buying counterfeit toys.

    Merseyside Police carried out a joint operation alongside Liverpool City Council’s Trading Standards team in the city centre on Tuesday, and found the fake dolls on sale for £7.99 each.

    The distinctive furry monster-like soft toys, manufactured by Chinese firm Pop Mart, have rocketed in popularity recently.

    However, police said fake versions can pose risks including toxic paint, sharp edges or unsafe stuffing.

    The seizures were made from two shops on Ranelagh Street and Church Street and coincided with the launch of a national campaign entitled Fake Toys, Real Harms, led by the Intellectual Property Office (IPO).

    The IPO said fake toys can also pose choking risks to young children and be constructed with chemicals linked to increased risks of cancer.

    One counterfeit Labubu doll inspected by Merseyside Police was found to be poorly constructed, with its head and feet twisting and loosening easily.

    The force said its internal stuffing also tore open with minimal force.

    Sgt Richard Clare said: “We understand that some people may not see the harm in buying counterfeit toys, especially when they’re cheaper or appear similar to the real thing.

    “But behind these fake products are serious risks – not just to children’s safety, but to our communities.

    “Counterfeit and illicit goods are rarely just about fake products. They’re often linked to wider criminal networks that cause real harm.”

    The force said nationally more than 200,000 counterfeit Labubu dolls have been seized before reaching UK consumers, accounting for around 90% of all counterfeit toys seized in the UK this year.

    Experts have since valued the haul at nearly £3.3 million.

    Tests on the seized toys found 75% failed critical safety tests.

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  • Chinese company gives an Eric Trump crypto firm preferential access to tech | Eric Trump

    Chinese company gives an Eric Trump crypto firm preferential access to tech | Eric Trump

    A private Chinese company is giving preferential access to its technology and providing unusually beneficial payment terms on hundreds of millions of dollars worth of specialized equipment to a firm partially owned by Eric Trump, according to industry sources and Securities and Exchange Commission records.

    The company, Bitmain, has faced concerns over the potential national security risks of its technology, with one Republican congressman asking the treasury department to review some of its business dealings in the United States.

    American Bitcoin Corporation was founded in March, just two months after Donald Trump’s inauguration. Eric Trump currently has a 7.5% stake in the company, SEC filings show. Created through a daisy chain of mergers, and majority owned by a company called Hut 8, American Bitcoin went public with overwhelming publicity on 3 September on the Nasdaq exchange. Though the phenomenal stock profits of the Trump venture have been previously reported, the fact that Bitmain appears to be providing preferential access and payment terms to the operation has not been previously reported.

    Filings by American Bitcoin with the Securities and Exchange Commission show that the company is purchasing more than 16,000 advanced mining machines – servers that process complex math problems to earn Bitcoin – from Bitmain.

    The SEC filings indicate that American Bitcoin is paying Bitmain in “pledged” bitcoin – rather than cash – which could be redeemed up to two years from now, at a current price. An industry expert said he was briefed on the American Bitcoin deals and that Bitmain was offering the company unique and favorable terms, with little money down, and such a long period of time for redeeming their collateral.

    ‘Business of politics’

    In May, at a Las Vegas bitcoin conference sponsored by Bitmain, the president of American Bitcoin, Matt Prusak, underscored the political nature of the bitcoin industry. “If you think you’re in the energy business or compute business or bitcoin business you’re half right,” he told the audience. “Underneath it all you’re in the business of politics, in the politics business.”

    Favorable treatment by Bitmain is a main ingredient of the American Bitcoin venture. “Preferential access” to the technology it buys from Bitmain is “central to American Bitcoin’s ability to maintain a structural cost advantage”, according to an American Bitcoin press release last month.

    In a statement to the Guardian, Bitmain said “technical cooperation” with American Bitcoin’s majority owner Hut 8 was specific to one type of mining machine, and was with Hut 8 rather than American Bitcoin. Hut 8 and American both list the same address in Miami on filings with the US government, and Hut 8 handles all of American Bitcoin’s operations and infrastructure.

    Bitmain, in its statement to the Guardian, said it offers “pledged bitcoin” to other customers. But in a May announcement the company said it would offer a six-month redemption period for these pledges, not a 24-month term, as it offers American Bitcoin.

    Experts say American Bitcoin’s special access to Bitmain’s technology and financing terms raise concerns that the Chinese entity views business with the Trump sons as an opportunity to try to influence the Trump administration on a variety of issues: crypto regulation, energy, or China policy.

    “The disclosed terms are pretty unusual,” said James Angel, a finance professor at Georgetown University’s McDonough School of Business. “It’s one thing to extend credit. But the weird part is: ‘you have the option to buy back when you’re mining at a discount,’” he said. “If the president’s family was involved it brings up the obvious question of whether Bitmain is trying to get special treatment.”

    Even the appearance of impropriety can be problematic, said Eric Chaffee, a professor of law at Case Western, who cautioned that at the same time all the facts are not known. “This does look a bit like a sweetheart deal where the reason they are doing this is to curry some influence with the Trump administration,” he said. “This looks bad but at the same time there could be underlying facts that make it a fair deal.”

    A spokesperson for Hut 8, Gautier Lemyze-Young, did not dispute the financing terms involved bitcoin with a 24-month window but said the terms were agreed to “in September 2024 long before the launch of American Bitcoin”.

    The transaction at issue, though, was done by American Bitcoin, and was revealed in August 2025.

    ‘Off to the races’

    On the day American Bitcoin went public a company executive posted a photo of the team, including Eric and Don Jr, on X, with the phrase “And we are off to the races.”

    Lemyze-Young said in the statement that the close work with the Chinese company stemmed from a longstanding relationship and was due to “results, not politics or external affiliations”.

    Eric Trump did not respond to detailed requests for comment emailed to American Bitcoin and the Trump Organization, where he is executive vice-president.

    A former company executive who spoke on condition of anonymity told the Guardian that the Trump family involvement, announced publicly in March, was known months earlier to insiders as the mergers were organized to form American Bitcoin. “We knew well in advance that they were involved. That’s why we wanted to do it,” he said, referring to a merger. “They have some access at the White House. Better than not having it. That’s certainly a bonus.”

    It is not the first crypto venture of the Trump family to raise questions about foreign influence. An entirely separate Trump cryptocurrency business, World Liberty Financial, which has no ties to American Bitcoin except the Eric Trump ownership, announced in May that the United Arab Emirates would use its stablecoin in a transaction in which it made a $2bn investment involving a separate cryptocurrency exchange.

    But American Bitcoin stands out in part because so many threads intersect with US policy: Trump has announced a “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve”, which may help drive up bitcoin’s price; has loosened regulations on energy, which is key to cheap bitcoin mining; and has launched policies on China that often seem to pivot back and forth between aggressive economic confrontation and conciliation.

    Eric Trump has been promoting American Bitcoin and the stock, appearing with company executives at investor forums and business news broadcasts, repeating that the Trump family had turned to cryptocurrency because it was “debanked” following the 6 January 2021 riot at the US Capitol.

    “We developed a company named American Bitcoin. We are one of the biggest bitcoin mining companies on Earth,” he told a conference last month, claiming the price of bitcoin would shoot to a million dollars, an eightfold increase from the present.

    Bitmain is not regulated by US agencies but there have been concerns about the company’s technology. Last month the Republican congressman Zachary Nunn, of Iowa, pressed the treasury department to review Bitmain and another Chinese bitcoin company. In a statement to the Guardian, Nunn wrote: “American families deserve to know that our power grid, digital infrastructure, and national security aren’t being compromised by foreign entities with opaque ownership and ties to hostile regimes.”

    In Bitmain’s statement to the Guardian, the company said it responded to his office, and said it “strictly complies with US and applicable laws and regulations and has never engaged in activities that pose risks to US national security”.

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  • Boeing Company – Virgin Atlantic selects Boeing to enable high-speed, streaming quality Wi-Fi across 787 fleet

    Boeing Company – Virgin Atlantic selects Boeing to enable high-speed, streaming quality Wi-Fi across 787 fleet

    LONDON, Oct. 15, 2025 /PRNewswire/ — Boeing [NYSE: BA] and Virgin Atlantic have agreed to implement connectivity modifications across Virgin Atlantic’s fleet of Boeing 787 Dreamliners. The upgrades will enhance onboard internet service, bringing high-speed, streaming-quality Wi-Fi to passengers. The services agreement was announced at MRO Europe on Oct. 15.

    “Partnering with Boeing to bring Starlink’s next-generation connectivity to our 787 fleet is another important step in creating a ‘home away from home’ experience for every customer,” said Corneel Koster, Chief Customer and Operating Officer, Virgin Atlantic. “Together, we’re transforming how our customers stay connected in the skies – with low latency, super high speed Wi-Fi, better than what most customers experience on the ground to make flying on Virgin Atlantic even more of a joy.” 

    As part of the modifications, Boeing will install a new antenna fairing designed to accommodate Electronically Steered Phased Array (ESA) antennas. Together with an ESA, the fairing, called the Boeing Aerodynamic Shroud, supports Low Earth Orbit (LEO) and multi-orbit connectivity.

    “We’re witnessing rapid advances in satellite and antenna technology, and we’re proud to provide our OEM-backed engineering expertise and hardware that will enable Virgin Atlantic to bring faster, more reliable connectivity to their 787 Dreamliner fleet,” said Doug Backhus, vice president of Cabin, Modifications and Maintenance for Boeing Global Services.

    About Boeing

    As a leading global aerospace company, Boeing develops, manufactures and services commercial airplanes, defense products and space systems for customers in more than 150 countries. As a top U.S. exporter, the company leverages the talents of a global supplier base to advance economic opportunity, sustainability and community impact. Boeing’s diverse team is committed to innovating for the future and living the company’s core values of safety, quality and integrity. Learn more at www.boeing.com.

    About Virgin Atlantic

    Virgin Atlantic was founded by entrepreneur Sir Richard Branson in 1984, with innovation and amazing customer service at its core. Virgin Atlantic has been voted Britain’s only Global Five Star Airline by APEX for the ninth year running in the Official Airline Ratings. Headquartered in London, it employs 9,250 people worldwide, flying customers to 28 destinations throughout the year. Alongside shareholder and Joint Venture partner Delta Air Lines, Virgin Atlantic operates a leading transatlantic network, with onward connections to over 200 cities around the world. In February 2020, Air France-KLM, Delta Air Lines and Virgin Atlantic launched an expanded Joint Venture, offering a comprehensive route network, convenient flight schedules, competitive fares and reciprocal frequent flyer benefits, including the ability to earn and redeem miles across all carriers. Virgin Atlantic joined SkyTeam in March 2023 as the global airline alliance’s first and only UK member airline, enhancing the alliance’s transatlantic network and services to and from Heathrow and Manchester Airport. 

    Virgin Atlantic has been pioneering sustainability leadership for more than 15 years, committing to Net Zero by 2050 and continuous action that reduces environmental impact. The airline operates one of the youngest and most fuel-efficient fleets in the skies, with an average age under seven years.

    In October 2022, Virgin Atlantic welcomed its first A330-900’s to the fleet, continuing its transformation towards 100% next generation aircraft by 2028. In November 2023, the airline led a consortium to deliver the world’s first flight across the Atlantic on 100% Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), demonstrating that 100% SAF can be used safely as a drop in fuel in existing infrastructure, engines and airframes. The need to scale production is an industry imperative and Virgin Atlantic is committed to radical collaboration across the energy chain to support commercialisation ahead of 2030. 

    For more information visit www.virginatlantic.com or via Facebook, Twitter and Instagram @virginatlantic. 

    Contact:
    Boeing Media Relations
    [email protected]

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    SOURCE Boeing

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