Category: 3. Business

US share markets finished higher on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 closing at a record level, as fresh economic data showed the US economy is running hotter than expected.

A wave of reports, led by stronger-than-forecast growth figures, pushed government bond yields higher and helped lift growth stocks, particularly big technology names.

The US Commerce Department said the economy grew at an annual rate of 4.3 per cent in the September quarter. That was the fastest pace since the September quarter of 2023 and well above the 3.3 per cent forecast from economists surveyed by Reuters. Solid consumer spending did most of the heavy lifting.

The figures were released late because of the 43-day US government shutdown. Many analysts had expected growth to slow in the December quarter, but the surprise strength has changed how markets see the outlook for interest rates.

Investors are now less confident the US Federal Reserve will cut rates in January. Short-term bond yields rose in response, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool.

“The bond market didn’t like this news,” said Stephen Massocca, senior vice president at Wedbush Securities in San Francisco.

“It seems to me that when we lose this battle, growth does well, and growth’s doing well today,” he said.
“But if you’re a food company, or you’re a chemical company, or you’re an oil and gas company, or even if you’re like a private credit company, that’s bad news. Unless interest rates go down, it’s bad.”

Tech leads the market higher

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 79.73 points, or 0.16 per cent, to 48,442.41. The S&P 500 gained 31.30 points, or 0.46 per cent, to 6,909.79. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 133.02 points, or 0.57 per cent, to 23,561.84.

Growth stocks clearly led the way. The S&P 500 growth index rose 0.8 per cent, while value stocks barely moved.

Artificial intelligence-linked shares added to recent gains after last week’s sell-off, which was driven by worries that valuations had run too far ahead of profits and that heavy spending by AI companies could weigh on earnings.

Nvidia jumped 3.0 per cent, making it the single biggest driver of gains in the S&P 500. Amazon, Alphabet and Broadcom also rose more than 1.0 per cent.

Not all good news

Away from the headline growth number, other data painted a mixed picture of the economy.

US consumer confidence fell in December, as households grew more anxious about jobs and incomes. Factory output was flat in November after falling the month before.

Even so, markets remain on a strong footing. All three major US share indexes are on track for a third straight year of gains. The S&P 500 and the Dow are also heading for an eighth consecutive monthly rise.

That recent momentum has fuelled hopes of a so-called “Santa Claus rally” – a seasonal pattern where the S&P 500 often rises in the final five trading days of the year and the first two sessions of January, according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac. This year, that period runs from Wednesday through to 5 January.

Holiday slowdown begins

Trading was already quieter than usual and is expected to thin out further as Christmas approaches.

US share markets will close early at 1.00pm ET on Wednesday and will be shut on Thursday for Christmas. About 14.01 billion shares changed hands during the session, below the recent 20-day average of 16.67 billion.

Company moves to watch

Shares in ServiceNow fell 1.5 per cent after the software company agreed to buy cybersecurity startup Armis for US$7.75bn (A$11.58bn) in cash.

US military shipbuilder Huntington Ingalls edged up 0.3 per cent after President Donald Trump announced plans for a new “Trump class” of battleships, which he said would be larger, faster and “100 times more powerful” than existing vessels.

Miner Freeport-McMoRan climbed 2.5 per cent to a 15-month high of US$52.29 (A$78.13), helped by record copper prices and a higher price target from Wells Fargo.

Market breadth

Falling stocks slightly outnumbered those that rose. On the Nasdaq, declines were more widespread.

The S&P 500 recorded 35 new 52-week highs and five new lows. The Nasdaq Composite logged 70 new highs and 178 new lows.

A $1.6 billion Boxing Day

Australians are expected to splash $1.6 billion on Boxing Day sales alone, as budget-conscious shoppers gravitate towards a bargain despite growing cost-of-living pressures.

Sales are tipped to rise by 4.3 per cent, delivering strong end-of-year momentum for retailers according to data from the Australian Retailers Association and Roy Morgan.

The spending surge is expected to continue into the coming week, with shoppers projected to spend $3.8 billion through to the new year.

Solid pre-Christmas spending

Early Christmas purchasing and a solid build-up through December have created a strong platform for Boxing Day trading, the association’s chief executive Chris Rodwell said.

“Retailers are finishing the year on solid footing,” he said.

“The growth we’re seeing highlights both the resilience of the sector and the enduring appeal of Boxing Day as a premier discount event.”

The products expected to drive the numbers

Household goods are expected to be the most popular items on Boxing Day, with $476 million in sales forecast, followed by clothing, footwear and accessories at $226 million.

Hospitality spending is tipped to increase by 6.8 per cent from last year to $141 million.

Supporting local business

Bargain shoppers are being urged to support local retailers during the festive spending period, with Mr Rodwell noting every purchase helps fund local jobs, training, wages and community investment.

“Ultra low-cost offshore platforms like Temu and Shein cannot match that contribution and are not held accountable to the same standards,” he said.

• Completion of Consumer Charter pledge to transform 1,000 worst homes ahead of schedule
• Hundreds more military properties to be upgraded by the spring.
• The major upgrades show early delivery of the Defence Housing Strategy – a generational renewal of military homes.

Military families across the UK will celebrate Christmas in homes fit for heroes as improvements to fix 1,000 of the worst forces houses have completed ahead of schedule.

The ambitious programme of works to urgently fix 1,000 military homes has also now been extended, with a further 250 military properties to receive priority upgrades over the coming months – a 25% increase on the target set out by Defence Secretary John Healey when launching the Consumer Charter only eight months ago.

The programme of housing improvements, known as Raising the Minimum Standards, has seen significant works take place at service family homes across the UK, with upgrades made to almost 700 properties in England, over 150 properties in Northern Ireland, over 100 in Wales and over 50 in Scotland.

Works in England include improvements to more than 200 military homes in Wiltshire and Windsor, as well as homes in Bassingbourn, Swanton Morely, Woodbridge and Uxbridge.

Homes across the country have received a complete makeover including new flooring and other improvements such as replacing unreliable boilers and heating systems, repairing hundreds of leaky roofs and installing new bathrooms, kitchens, windows and doors.

These are the first steps of delivery under the MOD’s mission to transform military family housing, with £9 billion of investment allocated for a generational renewal of defence housing over the next ten years. The Defence Housing Strategy will see the modernisation, refurbishing or rebuilding of more than 40,000 service family homes and has been enabled by the landmark deal made just 12 months ago to bring 36,000 military homes back into public ownership.

Defence Secretary, John Healey MP said:

Our Armed Forces and their families sacrifice so much for our country, the least they deserve are safe and decent homes. The work we’ve done to upgrade the 1,000 worst homes means that more families can now enjoy Christmas together in homes that are fit for heroes.

This is just the start of our ambitious work to upgrade tens of thousands of homes across the country, made possible by our landmark deal to bring 36,000 homes back into public ownership and backed by £9 billion investment. We are ending the decades of neglect and giving our dedicated Armed Forces families the homes they deserve.

Cpl Jack Crean, his partner Nina and their one-year-old son Charlie have just moved into one of the newly refurbished homes at Bassingbourn Barracks in Cambridgeshire.

Cpl Crean said:

We are really pleased to be in our new home for Christmas. Everyone is a lot happier here, especially Charlie. It’s nice to live in an up-to-date house, it works so much better for the whole family and if I was to go away, I know that my family is in a clean, modern house.

David Brewer, Chief Operating Officer for the Defence Infrastructure Organisation said:

I am very proud of the improvements our teams have made to a 1,000 of our worst homes. This is just the start of a generational renewal which will see 9 out of 10 homes improved. We are already seeing the results of the changes we are making through our charter commitments and are determined to do even more to improve the homes and deliver the experience our armed forces deserve.

The refurbishment of the 1,000 worst homes was just one the Consumer Charter commitments made by the Secretary of State to improve the experience of service families. All the Charter Commitments made in April 2025 are on course to be achieved by the end of this year, including the implementation of robust standards, ensuring service families can be confident they are moving into clean and functional homes, modernised policies making it easier to personalise homes, and the introduction of a named Housing Officer for every family to provide greater support.

These improvements are already being reflected in the results of monthly surveys of Service personnel, which show a clear upward trajectory in overall levels of satisfaction.

Australia is set to grow enough canola this year to “fill just over six MCGs”, according to CommBank Agriculture and Sustainability Economist Dennis Voznesenski. Yet very little of that crop stays at home.

“Most of our canola is sent to Asia, the Middle East and Europe,” Voznesenski said.

Once offshore, the oilseed has two main uses. One is familiar – cooking oil. The other surprises many people.

“It’s either eaten as cooking oil or, believe it or not, turned into fuel,” he said.

Why canola is part of the fuel conversation

The idea of crops powering vehicles isn’t new, but it has gained momentum as governments and industries look for ways to cut emissions.

“A while ago scientists found that biofuels, when burnt in a car, truck or plane, produce fewer emissions than conventional fossil fuel,” Voznesenski said.

Biofuels are particularly relevant for sectors where cutting emissions is difficult. Aviation is one of them.

“You can make cars electric but not planes, at least not yet,” he said. “In the case of plane transportation, it helps reduce emissions in a hard to abate sector.”

That makes sustainable aviation fuel a growing focus globally – and a potential opportunity for Australian agriculture.

The missing piece: local production

Despite Australia’s large canola harvests, the country currently has limited ability to turn crops into fuel.

“As of today, there’s very limited capacity to create biofuel in Australia for road-based vehicles, and none for planes,” Voznesenski said.

The main barrier is cost.

“The cost of biofuel far outstrips conventional diesel,” he said.

That price gap has slowed investment locally, even as overseas markets scale up production and demand.

More than an emissions story

While emissions reduction is often the headline, Voznesenski said local biofuel production could deliver broader economic and strategic benefits.

One is supply security.

“Last year Australia imported over 95 per cent of its fuel,” he said. “That’s a scary stat for any industry.”

Producing more fuel domestically could reduce Australia’s exposure to global supply disruptions and geopolitical shocks.

Another benefit is for farmers.

“Creating local demand for crops reduces the risk of economic coercion being used against the farming sector,” Voznesenski said, pointing to recent tariff disputes that have affected agricultural exports over the past five years.

A domestic biofuels industry could provide growers with another major buyer for their crops, helping to diversify income streams and reduce reliance on a small number of export markets.

What it could mean for canola growers

If Australia were to establish a sustainable aviation fuel industry, the scale of demand would be significant.

“If a sector for sustainable aviation fuel production is created in Australia, our numbers show that roughly a million tonnes of canola would be needed,” Voznesenski said.

That level of demand would represent a substantial share of current production and could reshape how and where canola is sold.

It would also keep more value onshore, linking regional farming communities more closely to domestic energy and transport supply chains.

The key takeaway

Canola may look like just another crop, but it sits at the intersection of agriculture, energy security and emissions reduction.

You can explore the economics and implications of canola in more detail in the report Refuelling Australian Aviation.

• Experienced mining executive to
  lead State’s premier minerals research body
• Vanessa Torres succeeds Miriam
  Stanborough in role
• Appointments drive innovation and
  research excellence in Western Australia

Mines and Petroleum
Minister David Michael today announced the appointment of Dr Vanessa Torres as
the new chair of the Minerals Research Institute of Western Australia (MRIWA).

Dr Torres will assume the
role on 1 January 2026 for an initial three-year term.

She succeeds Miriam
Stanborough AM, who has led the MRIWA Board since January 2020.

Dr Torres joins MRIWA
following a distinguished career of more than 25 years across the global
resources industry, including senior leadership roles.

She is a current director
of the Committee for Economic Development of Australia and the Minerals Council
of Australia.

Dr Torres holds a
Doctorate in Minerals Engineering along with executive education from INSEAD, Massachusetts
Institute of Technology, and London Business School and was the winner of the
2025 AFR Women in Leadership Award.

A number of other changes
will be made to the MRIWA board in the new year with:

• existing
  board member Mr Gerard Danckert assumes the role of Deputy Chair on 1 March
  2026, replacing Dr Linda Tompkins in the role;
• Dr
  Michelle Carey being appointed for a three-year term from 1 March 2026; and
• Mr Rylee
  Campbell and Ms Michele Spencer each being re-appointed for three-year terms
  from 1 February 2026.

These appointments come
as MRIWA continues to support minerals research while legislation to expand its
research scope to include clean energy and emissions reduction research is
currently before Parliament.

Comments attributed to
Mines and Petroleum Minister David Michael:

“I congratulate Dr Torres
and the other board members on their appointment and look forward to working
with them as MRIWA continues to drive innovation and research excellence in
Western Australia.

“Dr Torres brings exceptional leadership experience across operations,
strategy, technology and business development that will be invaluable as MRIWA
navigates the opportunities presented by the global energy transition and
critical minerals boom.

“I would also like to
express my sincere gratitude to Miriam Stanborough for her outstanding service
as MRIWA chair over the past six years.

“Miriam has been
instrumental in strengthening MRIWA’s collaborative partnerships between
industry, academia and government and her leadership has positioned the
Institute to support Western Australia’s transition to a clean energy future.

“Her contribution to the
minerals sector was rightfully recognised in 2023 when she was appointed a
Member of the Order of Australia for her significant service to the mining
industry and the community.”