New data from the Phase 3 BRAVE-AA-PEDS trial highlights baricitinib’s strong performance in adolescents facing severe alopecia areata. Incyte (INCY) and Eli Lilly now plan to pursue global approvals for expanded use based on these results.
See our latest analysis for Incyte.
Incyte’s momentum has really picked up this year thanks to positive trial results and recent pipeline updates, such as its advances in atopic dermatitis and cancer immunotherapies. The stock’s strong 31% share price return since January, along with a 40% total shareholder return over the past year, signals renewed optimism about both its near-term growth and long-term potential.
If Incyte’s clinical breakthroughs have you thinking bigger, this could be a smart time to discover See the full list for free.
With such a run-up in the share price and a fresh wave of optimism, investors have to ask: does Incyte still offer significant upside from here, or has the market already priced in the expected growth?
The most popular narrative among analysts puts Incyte’s fair value at $84.76, which is almost $6.50 below the recent closing price. This signals a view that current market optimism has gone a little too far. Let’s examine one of the biggest factors feeding this analyst consensus.
Recent price target increases highlight optimism about Incyte’s commercial execution, particularly following positive updates on flagship therapies and confidence expressed by new leadership.
Read the complete narrative.
Want the story behind this valuation? Dive in for analysts’ bold projections on future profit margins, share growth, and a crucial earnings target that could make or break the investment case. The real surprise: see how a future multiple drives everything.
Result: Fair Value of $84.76 (OVERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, overreliance on Jakafi and regulatory or competitive pressures could still cast doubt on Incyte’s long-term growth narrative.
Find out about the key risks to this Incyte narrative.
While analyst consensus sees Incyte as expensive at current prices, a fresh look using our SWS DCF model tells a different story. The DCF suggests Incyte could be significantly undervalued, with shares trading at a steep 44% discount to estimated fair value. Are the market and the model seeing something different, or is there an opportunity hiding in plain sight?
Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.
INCY Discounted Cash Flow as at Oct 2025
Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Incyte for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match – so you never miss a potential opportunity.
If you have your own perspective or want to dig deeper into the numbers, creating your personalized narrative is quick and straightforward. Do it your way
A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Incyte.
If you want to stay ahead of the market and uncover the next big opportunity, don’t stand on the sidelines. Let the right tools steer your portfolio.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include INCY.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
Mizuho Financial Group (TSE:8411) shares have been catching investors’ attention following a modest move in recent trading sessions. With returns over the past month slightly negative, but up around 8% in the past 3 months, some are taking a closer look.
See our latest analysis for Mizuho Financial Group.
Mizuho Financial Group’s share price has cooled a bit in the last month, though the backdrop is still positive. Momentum has been building steadily, leading to a 25.74% year-to-date share price return and a striking 63.36% total shareholder return over the past year. This run has caught the market’s eye as investors weigh up growth potential against a changing risk profile.
If you’re looking for fresh ideas beyond the top financial names, this could be the perfect opportunity to discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership
With shares pulling back just as fundamentals remain largely stable, the key debate is whether Mizuho is trading below its true value or if the market has already factored in all of its future growth potential.
The most widely followed narrative values Mizuho Financial Group higher than its last close, suggesting the stock could be discounted relative to fair value. There appears to be alignment around strong fundamentals driving optimism, setting the stage for a deeper look at what is powering this view.
Strategic acquisitions, partnerships, and cost-cutting initiatives aim to enhance competitive edge, improve efficiency, and expand revenue streams for Mizuho Financial Group. Diversifying revenue sources and enhancing shareholder returns through investments and buybacks could stabilize growth and elevate stock valuation.
Read the complete narrative.
Want to see how ambitious cost-cutting and bold expansion strategies combine to shift the valuation needle? The narrative leans on projections not typically seen for banks in this market environment. Curious what assumptions about earnings growth and margins drive this potential upside? Click through for the full methodology and numbers behind the headline value.
Result: Fair Value of ¥5,231.82 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, rising operational costs and the challenges of integrating new partnerships could put pressure on profitability and could disrupt the positive outlook for Mizuho.
Find out about the key risks to this Mizuho Financial Group narrative.
If you have a different view or want to examine the numbers firsthand, you can build your own perspective in just a few minutes using the same data. Do it your way
A great starting point for your Mizuho Financial Group research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
Expand your portfolio’s horizons and never miss your next big opportunity by checking out unique investment ideas that go beyond the familiar names.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include 8411.T.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
Signage for Novartis AG at a building in the company’s headquarters campus in Basel, Switzerland, on Monday, Jan. 8, 2023.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Swiss pharmaceutical giant Novartis is nearing a deal to buy biotechnology company Avidity Biosciences for more than $70 a share, Bloomberg News reported, citing a person familiar with the matter.
A deal could be announced as early as Sunday, the report said.
Novartis and Avidity didn’t immediately respond to CNBC’s requests for comment.
Avidity specializes in developing an innovative class of ribonucleic acid (RNA) therapeutics called antibody oligonucleotide conjugates. RNA-based therapeutics are a relatively new class of medications that work by altering how genes are expressed to treat or prevent diseases.
The reported discussions come as Novartis ramps up its research and development division. The company earlier this year pledged to invest $23 billion to build out its U.S.-based infrastructure, which includes plans to construct a second R&D hub in San Diego.
The company has also struck two key deals with Anthos Therapeutics and Regulus Therapeutics this year to boost its development and manufacturing of cardiovascular and kidney disease drugs.
Avidity shares closed at $49.15 on Friday. The stock, which has a market capitalization of roughly $7.2 billion, is up nearly 70% since the beginning of the year. Novartis shares closed at $130.36 on Friday.
“We are more than doubling the barrels (per day)… to 1.4 million from 650,000,” said Aliko Dangote, a Nigerian businessman who is Africa’s richest person.
“This will make it the largest refinery” globally, surpassing India’s Jamnagar Refinery, he told a news conference in Lagos.
The privately run Dangote refinery, which started operations last year, is a gamechanger for Nigeria, which previously had to import almost all its petrol despite being a major oil producer.
After years of neglect and mismanagement of public refineries, Dangote has shaken up the corruption-marred players in Nigeria and driven down prices of petrol for consumers.
“This expansion reflects our confidence in Nigeria’s future, our belief in Africa’s potential and our commitment to building energy independence for our continent,” and reduce import dependence, Dangote said, adding there was “quite a lot of demand” from west Africa and east Africa.
Dangote also exports aviation fuel, mainly to the United States, Europe and Brazil.
The Dangote refinery, which has sparked monopoly fears as it becomes a powerful player itself, plans to list on the Nigerian Stock Exchange next year.
“That is a step towards broader ownership and market transparency,” said Dangote.
A second privately owned refinery, BUA, is under construction by another Nigerian billionaire, Abdulsamad Rabiu.
Recent strikes
Recent moves by the Dangote refinery to bring its own, natural gas-powered trucks to distribute petrol in the country in September sparked a strike by a fuel tanker drivers’ union, which accused the company of hiring new drivers on the condition they didn’t join a union.
The refinery denied the allegations.
The refinery suffered a two-day strike that ended October 1 after government mediation.
The PENGASSAN oil and gas workers’ union accused the refinery of firing 800 local workers because they unionised, and replacing them with 2,000 workers from India.
The refinery called the allegation false, and said it had fired an unspecified number of workers over “acts of sabotage”.
Dangote on Sunday thanked the federal government for its role “in mediating our recent disruptions at the (refinery), linked to union activities and some sabotage attempts”.
Nigeria pumps an average of 1.5 million barrels of oil per day, according to OPEC, but it is still short of its two million bpd target.
If you are trying to decide what to do with Advanced Micro Devices stock, you are definitely not alone right now. The past few months have been a wild ride for AMD, giving investors plenty to cheer about. After a steady upward climb, the stock closed at $252.92, with a stunning 109.7% gain year-to-date and an eye-popping 58.6% pop just in the last month. That sort of momentum naturally has everyone wondering: is there more room to run, or is this as good as it gets?
Much of this excitement traces back to the growing market buzz around AI computing, where AMD has been grabbing headlines thanks to both its latest hardware launches and fresh partnerships with big players in cloud infrastructure. Though the AI story is driving a lot of expectations, the market seems to be constantly re-evaluating AMD’s competitive positioning and its ability to keep growing as more players rush in. Notably, the 8.5% gain over the past week hints at renewed confidence in the company’s prospects compared to rivals.
But hype alone does not tell the full story. If you are trying to make a level-headed decision, valuations matter. Looking under the hood, AMD’s current value score sits at 2 out of 6, meaning the stock is flagged as undervalued in just two checks out of the six most common methods. That is neither a screaming deal nor a red flag; instead, it calls for a deeper look at how AMD stacks up across key metrics.
Let’s dig into those valuation approaches and see what each can (and cannot) reveal, because as you will see, there is an even better way to make sense of AMD’s worth that many investors overlook.
Advanced Micro Devices scores just 2/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.
The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model estimates a company’s intrinsic value by projecting its future free cash flows and discounting them back to today’s dollars. This approach gives investors a sense of what the business is fundamentally worth based on its ability to generate cash over time.
For Advanced Micro Devices, the DCF model starts with its latest reported Free Cash Flow of $4.1 Billion. Analyst estimates provide projections out to 2029, forecasting that AMD could generate as much as $18.7 Billion in free cash flow by that year. After five years, additional annual projections are extended through 2035, all converted into today’s terms using a required rate of return.
Based on these assumptions and projections, the estimated DCF fair value for AMD is $165.73 per share. With the current share price at $252.92, this model implies the stock is trading at about a 52.6% premium to its intrinsic value. This suggests AMD appears substantially overvalued based on this cash flow methodology, even when factoring in robust long-term growth.
Result: OVERVALUED
Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Advanced Micro Devices.
AMD Discounted Cash Flow as at Oct 2025
Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Advanced Micro Devices may be overvalued by 52.6%. Find undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.
For growing and profitable companies like Advanced Micro Devices, the Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio is often a preferred way to assess valuation. This metric is especially useful when companies are reinvesting heavily for growth, and it helps investors gauge how the market values each dollar of revenue generated.
The “right” P/S ratio for a company depends on several factors, notably its future growth outlook and the risks it faces. Higher expected growth or lower risk typically support a higher multiple, while lower growth or more uncertainty would warrant a lower ratio. Investors also compare this metric to industry averages and direct peers for further context.
Currently, AMD trades at a P/S of 13.87x. This sits slightly below the average of its peers at 14.51x, but well above the broader semiconductor industry average of 5.28x. Simply Wall St’s proprietary Fair Ratio for AMD, calculated using an algorithm that factors in the company’s growth rate, profit margin, size, risk profile and its specific competitive landscape, is 17.95x. Unlike industry or peer averages, the Fair Ratio gives a more tailored sense of what a “normal” valuation should be for AMD specifically, rather than lumping it in with companies that might have very different prospects or risks.
Given that AMD’s actual P/S ratio of 13.87x is noticeably below its Fair Ratio of 17.95x, this suggests there is still value in the stock at current levels, even at a premium to the industry. AMD may be undervalued by this approach, considering its strong outlook and fundamentals.
Result: UNDERVALUED
NasdaqGS:AMD PS Ratio as at Oct 2025
PS ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.
Earlier, we mentioned there is an even better way to understand valuation. Let’s introduce you to Narratives, a dynamic approach that brings your unique perspective to investment decisions by combining a company’s story with your own financial forecasts.
A Narrative is more than just numbers on a page. It is your personal thesis about Advanced Micro Devices, where you express why you think the company will outperform (or underperform) and how your assumptions about future revenue, margins, and fair value shape your outlook.
Instead of relying solely on static data or generic ratios, Narratives link a company’s journey, including key business drivers, risks, and opportunities, to the numbers in a concrete forecast, which then outputs an estimated fair value. This method is simple, accessible, and built into Simply Wall St’s Community page, where millions of investors worldwide compare Narratives and revise them as fresh news or earnings are released.
With Narratives, you get a clear, side-by-side view of when AMD’s price is below, above, or right in line with your own fair value, helping you decide when to buy, hold, or sell. In addition, these projections update automatically as new developments unfold, so you always have the latest story.
For example, some AMD Narratives forecast a fair value as low as $136 per share, focused on margin pressures and export risks, while others see over $230 per share, emphasizing accelerating AI deals and long-term market share gains.
For Advanced Micro Devices, here are previews of two leading Advanced Micro Devices narratives:
🐂 Advanced Micro Devices Bull Case
Fair Value: $290.64
Current Price is approximately 13% below this narrative’s fair value
Forecast Revenue Growth: 31%
Projects AMD’s explosive revenue and margin growth, driven by aggressive expansion in AI and efficiency improvements led by CEO Lisa Su.
Expects new product launches in 2026 to accelerate performance, targeting AMD stock in the $200 to $300 range within 2 to 3 years and above $500 over 10 years.
Highlights AMD’s improving profit ratios and consistent revenue growth, viewing margin and operational gains as the primary value drivers.
🐻 Advanced Micro Devices Bear Case
Fair Value: $180.10
Current Price is approximately 40% above this narrative’s fair value
Forecast Revenue Growth: 16.5%
Credits AMD’s strong CPU and GPU innovation, but sees limited upside due to heavy competition from Nvidia, supply chain risks, and gaming segment volatility.
Identifies Data Center and Client segment momentum but forecasts more modest, cyclical growth rates and views Embedded and Gaming as near-term weak spots.
Values AMD’s market share gains but considers current pricing overextended relative to achievable near-term profit growth.
Do you think there’s more to the story for Advanced Micro Devices? Create your own Narrative to let the Community know!
NasdaqGS:AMD Community Fair Values as at Oct 2025
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include AMD.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
In their new book Fixed: Why Personal Finance is Broken and How to Make It Work for Everyone, John Campbell and Tarun Ramadorai highlight how personal finance markets in the US and across the globe often benefit the wealthy and more educated at the expense of those with fewer advantages. This feature of financial markets, along with the inherent difficulty in making financial decisions, makes it difficult for regular consumers to make sound decisions about investing and borrowing.
John joins EconoFact Chats to discuss his book, offering practical advice on topics like saving for college, getting a mortgage, making investment decisions, and creating an emergency fund for hard times. He also proposes some solutions to make personal finance work better for everyone.
John is the Morton L. and Carole S. Olshan Professor of Economics at Harvard University.
