Category: 3. Business

  • Portsmouth’s Eastern Road shuts for eight weeks for sewer repairs

    Portsmouth’s Eastern Road shuts for eight weeks for sewer repairs

    The road has been beset by problems with the sewage system in recent years.

    More than 1,000m of pipe from Farlington roundabout to beyond Anchorage Road was relined by Southern Water in May-July 2024 after frequent sewer bursts, leaks and flooding.

    The company apologised for inconvenience caused by the latest closures.

    “The long-term £2.5m solution will strengthen Portsmouth’s pipeline, using innovative lining technology to futureproof this section of the city’s sewer network for years to come,” it added.

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  • Hull-built anti-seasickness ship was plagued with misfortune

    Hull-built anti-seasickness ship was plagued with misfortune

    The key feature was a first-class cabin mounted on gimbals that was designed to swing back and forth supposedly cancelling out the actions of the waves.

    Dr Robb Robinson, honorary research fellow at the University of Hull, described Bessemer as “one of those giant figures of the 19th Century”.

    “He was also reputedly a man who suffered very badly with seasickness,” Dr Robinson said.

    “And he felt that in the modern Victorian age it must be possible to be able to come up with an invention, a mechanical invention, that would reduce seasickness.”

    Bessemer raised £250,000 to build the 350ft (107m) long vessel and it was constructed at Earle’s shipyard, located on the Humber Estuary at Victoria Dock.

    Dr Robinson said the ship was plagued by a series of misfortunes.

    “The first one was when it was caught by the tide in a storm and it ended up coming aground near Barton,” he said.

    “It was brought back without much damage.”

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  • Digital wallet fraud: how your bank card can be stolen without it leaving your wallet | Banks and building societies

    Digital wallet fraud: how your bank card can be stolen without it leaving your wallet | Banks and building societies

    You get a call from your bank and the informed voice asks to you to confirm the personal details they have on file, which you do. You are then asked whether you bought something at an electrical retailer recently for £120 and spent £235 in Birmingham, but neither transaction rings true.

    The caller tells you they have blocked the payments but they must now secure your account, and say they will send you a notification to approve, or a code to pass on to them. You feel under pressure to protect your money, so you do what is asked.

    Unfortunately, the person at the other end of the phone is not your bank but a criminal, and they have added your payment card to a digital wallet on one of their many smartphones. At some stage, your account will be emptied by purchases of expensive phones or designer clothes, which will then be sold on.

    Banks have seen an increase in the number of attempts to exploit victims using the elaborate digital wallet fraud and have introduced new security measures to counter the threat.

    Danai Antoniou, the chief scientist at Gradient Labs, a financial services AI company, says the approach from criminals can appear harmless as the victim is not being asked to move money.

    “This is why most people don’t question it. If the notification says ‘never share this with anyone’ (or similar), they will pre-emptively mention it to the customer that this is a routine comment that comes with every notification – which is true, customers do become immune to warnings if they get warnings frequently,” she says.

    “Victims often describe feeling panicked and pressured during the call, being told their account is under attack, or that their money is at risk. In that heightened emotional state, approving a notification feels like the responsible thing to do. The victim believes they’re protecting their account, when, in reality, they’re handing over the keys.”

    Santander says that digital wallet fraud was the second biggest reason for card scam losses last year, while HSBC has reported an increase over the past 18 months.

    UK Finance, the banking trade body, says that the number of attempts has surged, in part because security systems have prevented criminals being successful, forcing them to make more attacks.

    What the scam looks like

    The fraud can start with phishing where the victim provides personal and bank details after a text message that promises, for example, a winter fuel allowance payment, or an offer for cheap products on social media.

    After a few weeks, enough time for the victim to forget about supplying details, the fraudster will contact them, claiming to be from their bank. They will know which bank because of the details already supplied by the victim.

    They may ask the victim to confirm the address, or postcode, they have on file, in order to portray legitimacy. The criminal will then ask about some transactions, all fabricated, and when the victim says they don’t recognise them, the criminal will claim they have been stopped, and more measures must be taken to secure the account. They will say that a notification is on the way, and the victim should approve it to secure the account.

    The scammers use text messages to secure victims’ personal and bank details. Photograph: DCPhoto/Alamy

    “The notification the customer receives is entirely legitimate, as it’s the genuine notification your bank sends when a new Apple Pay or Google Pay card is being added to a device, or the bank may send you a code via text, or in the app. They have just added your card into their Apple Pay or Google Pay and you are now receiving a text, or a notification, to approve it,” Antoniou says.

    From there, the criminals can act quickly and empty the account of the victim. “They drain accounts at high-value merchants, such as tech stores and fashion retailers. The appeal is simple: electronics and designer goods can be quickly resold on the secondary market with minimal loss of profit during the money-laundering process,” she adds.

    What to do

    Banks don’t need your help to protect your account: they have systems in place to freeze and block accounts if needed. “Never trust anyone who calls you from your bank unless you arranged that phone call in advance. If somebody calls, tell them you will call the bank back yourself,” Antoniou says. And don’t use a number they give you: search on the web for the bank’s phone number, or use the one on the back of your physical debit or credit card.

    Nationwide warns people to be aware of what any one-time passcodes they receive are being used for.

    HSBC says it has put in new security measures to counter the threat of wallet fraud and more would be coming this year. “We are regularly reminding customers not to give out their details, such as one-time passcodes, and to treat them as carefully as you would your pin,” it adds.

    UK Finance says: “Set up bank alerts in your app, and check your transactions regularly so you know about any suspicious transactions as soon as possible.

    “If you think you’ve fallen for a scam it’s important to contact your bank immediately and report it to Report Fraud.”

    Apple says it is not responsible for approving a card for inclusion in the wallet, but that it gives banks information that they can use to combat fraud.

    Google did not respond to a request for comment.

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  • Will we see signs of economic growth in 2026?

    Will we see signs of economic growth in 2026?

    Andrew SinclairEast of England political editor, Colchester

    Andrew Sinclair/BBC A long aisle in a warehouse stacked with boxes and cans of food. There are signs saying "Pasta" and "Soup". A woman with a trolley is in the distance picking up cans.    Andrew Sinclair/BBC

    More than 330,000 people used foodbanks in the East of England in the last year. A notable fall in numbers in 2026 would show that cost of living pressures are easing.

    Opinion polls suggest just over half of voters see the economy and the cost of living as the most important issues facing the country, while local chambers of commerce say business confidence is at its lowest level for some time.

    How the government addresses these two key issues will dominate politics in 2026 and have a major bearing on whether Sir Keir Starmer is still Prime Minister by the end of the year.

    Will we see clear signs of economic growth in 2026 after a year of flatlining, to give businesses confidence to invest and employ more people? Will the measures announced in November’s budget, such as raising the minimum wage, scrapping the two-child benefit cap and removing some of the so-called “green taxes” from energy bills, make voters feel better off?

    Staff at food banks are on the frontline of the cost of living crisis, while the hospitality sector is one of the East’s main employers. How do they see the year ahead?

    ‘The new normal’

    Andrew Sinclair/BBC A woman wearing a white t-shirt with a snowman on it and a black cardigan on top stands in front of crates full off donated food. Andrew Sinclair/BBC

    Colchester Foodbank co-director Nikki Ranson

    There are people arriving at Colchester’s Foodbank every few minutes. The charity’s 11 centres, which are dotted around the town, help as many as 3,000 people every month.

    “The stories all come back to not having enough money to buy food and the choice between putting food on the table or heating the house” says co-director Nikki Ranson.

    “We have schoolteachers coming in, we have police officers and nurses. We had a nurse not so long ago who always grabs all the overtime [she can get] but hadn’t been able to for a few weeks and was in dire straits.

    “We’re supposed to be an emergency food service that is supposed to be a three-day food parcel a couple of times a year. We’ve become a normal. We’re now a go-to and that’s not right.”

    According to the Trussell Trust anti-poverty charity, 332,500 food parcels were handed out across the East of England in the last year. This was a 5% decline on the previous year.

    Ms Ranson says the changes announced in the budget will take a while to work through to people’s pockets and she says there’s still more to be done to help with benefits and wages. She expects the numbers using her food bank to stay the same this year.

    A Treasury spokesman said: “We know there’s more to do to help families with the cost of living.

    “That’s why the Chancellor took action at the Budget to freeze rail fares and prescription charges and will cut £150 off the average energy bill this year.”

    The number of people using food banks by next Christmas will be an important indicator about whether cost of living pressures are easing.

    ‘Betrayed’

    Andrew Sinclair/BBC Matthew Allum with a beard and open necked blue shirt stands at his bar. Andrew Sinclair/BBC

    Matthew Allum runs two pubs

    “This year is going to be a fight for survival. If I make it to Christmas I’ll be impressed” says Matthew Alum who runs two pubs in the Colchester area.

    He has recently had to hand back a third pub to the brewery because he could no longer afford to it.

    “I feel betrayed by the budget. We were promised loads of support, and all we had was another rise in the minimum wage and another rise in business rates.”

    He says every time the minimum wage goes up it adds £100,000 to his wage bill. He has already had to increase prices and is now thinking about reducing staff hours to help.

    The increase in employers’ national insurance contributions, the phasing out of business rate relief and a rates revaluation has also added to his costs.

    “When Labour came to power I was paying £445 a month, now it could be as much as £3,200 a month” he says.

    The industry body Hospitality UK estimates that the average business will see its rates rise by 94% over the next three years.

    Chief Executive Allen Simpson says: “Every high street is going to feel a massive hit and so will our communities when much-loved venues are forced to close”

    Back at the Cricketers pub in Fordham Heath, near Colchester, Mr Allum says the Government must rethink the rates revaluation and cut VAT for hospitality.

    “If a Labour MP comes to talk to me about what’s going on, I’ll talk to them – howeve,r until they’re prepared to have a proper conversation with me about what needs to be done i’ll be asking them to leave.

    “This isn’t party politics… for me this is betrayal.”

    A Treasury spokesman said the budget contained a £4.3bn support package for hospitality.

    “This comes on top of our efforts to help more venues offer pavement drinks and put on one-off events, maintaining our cut to alcohol duty on draught pints, and capping Corporation Tax,” he said.

    The High Street has been struggling for years but there are many in the hospitality industry who wonder if this year will be make or break.

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  • Here’s the forecast for Nvidia stock in 2026

    Here’s the forecast for Nvidia stock in 2026

    Image source: Getty Images

    Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) stock’s already delivered exceptional returns, but analysts remain confident further gains are possible over the next 12-24 months.

    The current analysts’ consensus price target of $253.02 implies the stock’s 33% undervalued today. Forecasts span a wide range, from $140 at the bearish end (which I really don’t get) to $352 at the top, reflecting differing views on how long Nvidia can sustain its extraordinary growth rate as artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure spending matures.

    The earnings outlook explains much of the optimism. For the fiscal year ending this month, analysts expect earnings per share (EPS) of $4.69. This represents 56.9% year-on-year growth. Just let that sink in.

    On those numbers, the stock trades at around 40 times forward earnings. This is a pretty demanding valuation by almost any historical standard. However, what makes Nvidia unusual is the speed at which that valuation’s expected to compress.

    By January 2027, consensus EPS jumps to $7.57, implying another 61% year-on-year increase and pulling the forward price-to-earnings (P/E) down to 24.8 times. In effect, Nvidia’s investment case increasingly rests on earnings growth doing the heavy lifting, rather than further multiple expansion.

    If AI data centre demand, enterprise adoption, and software monetisation continue to scale as expected, today’s valuation may look far more reasonable in hindsight — though any slowdown would likely be punished sharply by the market.

    For years I wouldn’t have questioned analysts from major financial institutions, but more recently I’ve learned that some of them simply aren’t much cop. So what do the headline figures tell us about this stock?

    Well, at $253, the stock would be trading around 53 times forward earnings. And the price-to-earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio would move from around 1.06 to 1.4, bringing it closer in line with the industry average.

    However, the information technology sector average is actually 1.66 and Nvidia’s five-year average PEG’s 1.61. On both counts, Nvidia looks like it could be trading higher — or at the share price target — and not be considered overvalued on this metric.

    Oddly, I think some of the discount reflects ongoing disbelief about Nvidia momentum rise. There’s talk of a bubble and circular financing worries. However, I just don’t see it. Because, to date, AI’s proven to be a genuine productivity technology, not a speculative concept searching for a use case.

    Enterprises aren’t buying Nvidia’s chips to flip them on. They’re deploying them to reduce costs, automate workflows, speed up research, and build revenue-generating products. That’s a crucial distinction.

    Of course, Nvidia isn’t risk-free. A lot of the valuation’s based on growth expectations and it could underperform those for several reasons. This could include a peer stepping up or demand moving towards ASICs (Application-Specific Integrated Circuits) rather than Nvidia GPUs.

    However, the current trajectory’s very strong and there’s no reason to doubt the forecasting. It also still looks cheap relative to peers and its own five-year average.

    It’s certainly worth considering.

    The post Here’s the forecast for Nvidia stock in 2026 appeared first on The Motley Fool UK.

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    James Fox has positions in Nvidia. The Motley Fool UK has recommended Nvidia. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

    Motley Fool UK 2026

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  • European office deals rebound as investors bet on supply crunch

    European office deals rebound as investors bet on supply crunch

    Investors sank money in big European office deals again last year, with values and the number of transactions rebounding as the prospect of a supply crunch breathed new life into a once moribund sector.

    A total of 21 transactions worth £100mn or more had completed in central London as of mid-December, compared with 12 for all of 2024. Nine office buildings were sold for £200mn or more, compared with just one in 2024.

    Big deals accounted for a greater share of the market. Office building sales in central London worth £100mn or more were 53 per cent of total sales volumes as of mid December, up from 27 per cent for the whole of 2024, according to data from real estate broker Savills.

    “Investors are feeling more confident” about putting money back into this space, particularly domestic funds and institutions, said Oliver Bamber, director for central London investment at Savills. Bamber is advising on the sale of St Christopher’s Place, a mixed-use office, residential and leisure estate, and Stirling Square, an office building. Both are in the West End and expected to sell for more than £200mn.

    As of mid-December, there were 12 office deals worth £100mn or more under way in continental Europe and the UK, with a total value of €2.7bn. That compares with nine deals worth €1.87bn at the same point in 2024, according to data from MSCI, and eight worth €1.65bn in 2023.

    “Despite the noise around work from home, actually the cranes have stopped for a number of years in key markets, presenting in critical markets like London a supply crunch,” said Nick Deacon, head of offices for Europe at Nuveen Real Estate.

    “Demand has stayed up, supply is looking really difficult, we’re all anticipating rental growth and that’s fundamentally what people are buying into,” he added.

    Nuveen in December sold its “Can of Ham” skyscraper in London to Hayfin and Capreon for about £340mn. The average office deal size in Europe is about €35mn, according to MSCI.

    US asset manager Invesco has appointed broker CBRE to sell its Capital 8 complex in Paris’s 8th arrondissement, which could fetch about €900mn, according to people familiar with the matter.

    Invesco acquired the nearly 500,000 sq ft building in 2018 and spent two years and €100mn redeveloping it. It now has a rooftop bar and a “hotel-inspired lobby”, according to the firm. Invesco and CBRE declined to comment.

    A price tag of €900mn would represent the largest European office building sale in three years and the largest in France in five years. It joins other high-end assets that are being sold, a sign the market is creeping back after valuations crashed in the wake of the pandemic and high interest rates.

    JPMorgan Asset Management and Singapore sovereign-wealth fund GIC, for example, are selling OpernTurm, an office tower in Frankfurt known for its good location and steady tenant base. It could fetch €800mn, according to people familiar with the transaction. JPMorgan and GIC declined to comment.

    Both real estate investment manager Hines and developer Art-Invest Real Estate have looked at OpernTurm, according to people familiar with the matter. They declined to comment.

    Meanwhile, Blackstone in September snapped up the Centre d’Affaires Paris Trocadéro, a mixed-use property including office and retail in the 16th arrondissement, for about €700mn.

    “There’s real evidence of rental growth: we are seeing some prime rents in the City of London can be well north of £100 a foot, north of €1,200 a metre in Paris,” said Samir Amichi, Blackstone’s head of real estate acquisitions for Europe. “These are rents we hadn’t seen before.”

    The Trocadéro sale is a “bellwether” for supersize deals, said Tom Leahy, head of real estate research for Emea at MSCI. “It’s emblematic of a broader recovery.”

    Still, investors remain selective, with bidders focused on well-located buildings with attractive amenities in the top global cities.

    Lars Huber, head of Europe at Hines, said capital completely dried up over the previous two or three years and has only started coming back recently.

    “Investors are drawn to Europe right now because the interest rate environment has improved, construction costs are moderating, there’s less supply of top-quality office space and Europe provides geopolitical stability compared to other places.”

    Traditional lenders are also more keen to lend, which is adding liquidity, he said.

    In the first half of 2025, new commercial real estate lending in the UK totalled £22.3bn, up 33 per cent from the year before, according to research from Bayes Business School.

    For the Trocadéro transaction, Blackstone’s loan-to-value ratio was 60 per cent, said a person familiar with the matter. A year and a half ago, it would have been hard to get leverage above 50 per cent LTV, the person said.

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  • Europe’s renewables push slowed by waits for links to grid, operator warns

    Europe’s renewables push slowed by waits for links to grid, operator warns

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    The boss of one of Europe’s largest grid operators has warned that too many speculative and unprepared projects are holding up grid connections for critical energy projects and causing years-long queues.

    Bernard Gustin, chief executive of Elia Group, which operates the Belgian and parts of the German grid, said that operators of network infrastructure should be able to allocate connections to projects that are ready, rather than those that applied first.

    ‘‘I think in Belgium we have 10 times more projects [than] needed until 2030,” he said, referring to battery storage projects. “If you change from first come, first served to first ready, first served, then you will focus on the ones who are really serious because they have everything [ready].”

    Grid connections have become a huge issue for European countries. Many are trying to manage a rapid increase in demand for grid access as more industrial plants and households install wind and solar power that can go into the grid, as well as an increasing number of applications from data centres to use energy from it.

    In some countries, such as the Netherlands, queues to be connected to the grid stretch more than seven years. In Slovakia, about 50 per cent of capacity reserved for connection remains unused, according to commission figures. In Germany, there are twice as many requests to add battery storage to the grid as is planned in the country’s grid development plan, an Elia Group report found.

    The rollout of renewables in the EU has outpaced the infrastructure needed to support it, as countries race to meet renewable energy targets set by Brussels and move away from imported fossil fuels. The European Commission has estimated that €1.2tn needs to be spent on the EU’s grids by 2040 in order to support the transition.

    Gustin said that grid operators are competing for funding to rapidly build out networks and upgrade infrastructure to balance the volatility of wind and solar energy.

    After years of stagnant investment levels, “we all have huge capex plans, so big that you need to be able to finance them, which is a challenge”, he said.

    Bernard Gustin: ‘If you change from first come, first served to first ready, first served, then you will focus on the ones who are really serious because they have everything [ready]’ © Jonas Roosens/Belga/AFP/Getty Images

    Costs from grid congestion — where cheap electricity cannot flow to where demand is so people have to pay for higher cost sources — are rising. Acer, the EU energy regulator, has said that they reached €5.2bn in 2022 and could rise to €26bn by 2030.

    In a document published in December, Brussels set out recommendations to prioritise connections to the grid. The commission also said that it would take a more top-down approach to energy infrastructure planning in order to accelerate the build-out and ensure costs were shared between EU countries.

    “In Europe it’s a huge problem and we lose billions every year in lost value because of curtailment and bottlenecks,” EU energy commissioner Dan Jørgensen told the Financial Times.

    In a report on energy storage, Elia Group found that the first 100GW of installed batteries in Europe would reduce the curtailment of renewable power by 13 per cent, meaning that 13 per cent more power would be available.

    People observe a large control room screen displaying Belgium’s electricity grid data.
    A control room screen displaying Belgium’s electricity grid data © Jonas Roosens/BELGA MAG/AFP/Getty Images

    Elia plans to spend €31.6bn on grid upgrades until 2028, split roughly one-third to Belgium and two-thirds to its German arm. To deal with connection demands from batteries, data centres and renewable energy installations could cost an additional €10bn, Gustin estimated.

    “These are not small amounts . . . you have a lot of people saying we don’t want tariffs to go up on energy, electricity is not competitive. And so we have a first challenge [which] is how do we make sure, given the amounts we need to raise, that we have a competitive return on equity?”

    Gustin, who was formerly chief executive of Brussels Airlines, oversaw a €2.2bn capital raise earlier this year, bringing in investors such as BlackRock and the Canadian pension fund CPP.

    Often the length of time it takes to grant permits for infrastructure projects is seen as a risk factor by investors, he said, with permitting times in Belgium running up to eight years.

    “By [that] time inflation and the price have increased and some investors are telling you these were not the conditions we had at the start, we cannot continue,” he said.

    The EU’s recent legislation aims to speed up permitting times by setting time limits for permit deliberations and proposing that energy projects should be seen as having an overriding interest.

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  • US to extend productivity lead on back of AI boom, say economists

    US to extend productivity lead on back of AI boom, say economists

    More than three-quarters of economists expect the US to maintain or widen its productivity lead over the rest of the world, because of artificial intelligence, deep capital markets and relatively low energy costs, a Financial Times survey has found.

    In the global poll, 31 per cent of 183 respondents thought the US would retain its advantage in productivity, while another 48 per cent expected the country to increase its dominance.  

    The economists were based in China, the Eurozone, the UK and the US.

    Productivity growth — which measures progress in converting inputs such as hours worked into goods and services — ultimately allows companies to increase wages and profits, improving living standards.

    US labour productivity rose 10 per cent between 2019 and 2024, thanks to rapid technological advances and the reallocation of workers during the Covid-19 pandemic. By contrast, it remained largely stagnant in the UK and Eurozone, according to OECD data.

    Jumana Saleheen, head of Vanguard’s investment strategy group in Europe, said US productivity was set to “pull away from other developed market economies” thanks to the country’s dynamic capital markets, flexible labour force and lead in emerging technologies.

    She added that Europe risked “falling further behind”, with research and development still heavily focused on traditional sectors such as automotive and pharmaceuticals.

    Saleheen also noted structural challenges for the EU, including fragmented infrastructure, more rigid labour markets and less supportive capital markets.

    The US economy is set for the strongest growth in the G7 this year, according to the OECD — buoyed by a tech-led investment boom and stock market gains that are bolstering wealth and spending among better-off households.

    The gains have helped counter some of the economic damage done by US President Donald Trump’s trade wars but have also raised fears of an unsustainable AI-related bubble.

    The FT survey, which was carried out in December, suggests economists do not expect the trends powering US outperformance to be reversed soon.

    AI and related digital technologies were the new productivity frontier, said Nina Skero, chief executive of the Centre for Economics and Business Research, and the US’s “position as a leader in investment and development of these technologies will extend the US’s productivity lead”.

    Some content could not load. Check your internet connection or browser settings.

    The trend is supported by a divergence in business investment. In the US, investment jumped 24 per cent in the second quarter of 2025 compared with the same period in 2019, before the pandemic. It contracted 7 per cent over that time in the Eurozone, according to Oxford Economics.

    Some economists surveyed by the FT warned that the surge in AI investment could reflect a “bubble” — a term mentioned 25 times in responses — and cautioned that a sharp correction might weigh on US output and productivity.

    A reversal in the stock market gains made by US tech could also have international repercussions via tighter financial conditions, softer external demand and rising risk aversion, some economists said.

    But the majority of respondents to the poll, which represented the UK and Eurozone more heavily than China and the US, still expected America to maintain its productivity edge globally. Overall, the poll surveyed 207 economists, although not all responded to every question.

    Some content could not load. Check your internet connection or browser settings.

    The US was starting from a “position of strength” in the productivity race, said Thomas Simons, chief US economist at Jefferies.

    Respondents also pointed to the US’s structurally lower and more predictable energy costs, flexible labour market and large domestic economy.

    The US benefits from “structurally lower and more predictable energy costs than Europe and many Asian economies, underpinned by an administration that treats energy policy as a driver of economic prosperity rather than a vehicle for moral posturing at the expense of growth and living standards,” said Martin Beck, chief economist at the consultancy WPI Strategy.

    Line chart of 2026 GDP growth forecast, by date of forecast showing Economists expect stronger 2026 growth in the US

    Europe is widely seen by economists as constrained by over-regulation, weaker investment, rigid labour markets and a business environment less favourable to cutting-edge technologies. The UK had the additional weight of the Brexit legacy to deal with, some economists contended.

    “While the US and others have made major strides in AI, the UK has spent much of the last decade chasing the Brexit tail, diverting attention and resources from innovation,” said Evarist Stoja, professor of finance at the University of Bristol Business School.

    Experts acknowledge that the US faces rising AI competition from Asia. “Other countries — particularly in Asia — will move to the frontier, meaning that the relative advantage of the US will erode somewhat but will not be eliminated,” said Jagjit S Chadha, professor of economics at the University of Cambridge. 

    China has the second-largest cumulative venture capital investment in AI since 2012 after the US and over three times more than the EU, according to the OECD.

    The US may be at the forefront of the AI wave, but “much of this may prove a misallocation of resources,” said David Owen, chief economist at Saltmarsh Economics. “Ultimately, much of the benefits will go to the users of the technology (elsewhere), not the early-stage innovators.”

    Many economists also highlighted risks from US trade protectionism, restrictive immigration policies, fiscal imbalances and political instability that could eventually undermine productivity growth. 

    US productivity gains from trade “have been traded away for chump change tariff revenues”, warned Robert Barbera, director of the Johns Hopkins University Center for Financial Economics.

    Jonathan Portes, professor of economics and public policy at King’s College in London, warned that a “toxic combination” of tariffs, an erosion of the quality of US government administration and anti-immigration policy would “over time do significant damage to the US economy”.

    Additional reporting from Olaf Storbeck, Claire Jones and Thomas Hale

    Video: The AI rollout is here – and it’s messy | FT Working It

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  • the productivity hack for 2026

    the productivity hack for 2026

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    Time (to mangle the Rolling Stones lyric) is definitely not on my side. Like many Financial Times readers I’m sure, life for most of last year involved juggling a sheaf of to-do lists, with the clock as a permanent reminder that such a volume and variety of tasks would not and could not be completed.

    Procrastination is not one of my psychological quirks, so that’s not it. And I’ve become quite good at “eating the frog” — doing one of the most unpleasant things on the list first, to give yourself a boost from getting it over with. No, the problem is quite simple: there is too much to do. This may be particularly the case for those with both young and old people to look after, as well as work responsibilities.

    Luckily (if not happily), it seems that for many middle-aged women, large chunks of extra time open up in your diary around the same time as the tasks and responsibilities proliferate. But there is a catch — those hours are from about 3am to maybe five or six in the morning.

    Yes, that’s right. Insomnia — it’s my tried and tested productivity hack for 2026. We’ve all been bludgeoned by the competitiveness of “the 5am club”, the go-getters who boast of starting their day super early to steal a march on the losers who need eight hours’ sleep a night. Well, this year I’m already planning the 3am club — think less business elite, more frazzled sandwich generation.

    Here’s how it goes. Strange mid-life biological changes start to interrupt your sleep patterns, leading to some sort of internal alarm going off at approximately 3am, regular as clockwork. It’s not that you are sleeping badly (although a newfound sympathy for friends who have suffered with life-long insomnia is perhaps a moral gain from the experience). You are just plain awake. And judging by the number of times colleagues and friends have described the same phenomenon, joking that we could have sorted out our work questions in the small hours when we were both up, this is widespread.

    You then have a choice: either worry about how bad the next day will feel, thereby worsening your anxious state; or embrace the bonus of a couple of extra hours to get on top of things. Personally, I found, following advice from a counsellor, that getting up to put on a load of laundry or mopping the floors has the benefit of a physical task that will eventually summon sleep again. Then I rationalise my to-do lists for the following days, and often get my physio exercises done. If I’m incurably alert, I might do some work, but using screens is not conducive to winding down again (though many are the columns I have written after midnight).

    You could also get creative — but be warned the output may not be a gift to the rest of humanity. One of the moments of 2025 was surely Reform UK’s sequin-clad Andrea Jenkyns, on stage at the party’s conference belting out lines from her own composition — a bombastic rock anthem entitled “Insomniac”. “I’m an insomniac!/ Staring at the ceiling, waiting for my thoughts to switch off.”

    Unforgettable, for sure, but not in a good way — and you have to assume she wrote it at night. So make sure you take a good hard look at your own masterpiece after you have managed to get some sleep.

    Reading, somehow, doesn’t work for me — the mind stays too active and I’m still awake as the rest of the household gets up. Last year I took up Japanese visible mending for our socks and sweaters, with mixed but useful (and therapeutic) results. The aim is to eventually fall back into an emergency top-up sleep before the day really has to start.

    Clearly, none of this is ideal. The mental and physical health effects of a lack of sleep can be severe. And on those nights when the internal alarm fails to go off, I slumber on blissfully and wake refreshed, much like my old (for which read young) self. But since at least for now it seems to be inevitable, better to accept and adjust. Chances are that this productivity hack will not solve the insomnia. But hey, we can beat those layabout 5am-ers at their own game and carry the day. And the night.

    miranda.green@ft.com

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