The once-rigid link between economic growth and carbon emissions is breaking across the vast majority of the world, according to a study released ahead of Friday’s 10th anniversary of the Paris climate agreement.
The analysis, which underscores the effectiveness of strong government climate policies, shows this “decoupling” trend has accelerated since 2015 and is becoming particularly pronounced among major emitters in the global south.
Countries representing 92% of the global economy have now decoupled consumption-based carbon emissions and GDP expansion, according to the report by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU).
Using the latest Global Carbon Budget data, it finds that decoupling is now the norm across advanced economies, with 46% of global GDP in countries that have expanded their economies while cutting emissions, including Brazil, Colombia and Egypt. The most pronounced decouplings occurred in the UK, Norway and Switzerland.
More important is the spectacular shift in China. The world’s biggest emitter is sharply reducing its economic dependence on coal and other fossil fuels. Between 2015 and 2023, China’s consumption-based emissions rose 24%, less than half the growth of its economy (more than 50%). For the past 18 months, its emissions have plateaued and many analysts believe they may have peaked. If China can turn the corner, the rest of the world should follow.
In total, 21 countries have improved in the past decade. Among them are Australia, the United Arab Emirates, Colombia, Egypt, Italy, Mexico and South Africa – all of which were able to grow economically while reducing emissions.
Twenty-two others have consistently managed to achieve decoupling in the decades before and after 2015. Among them are the US, Japan, Canada and most countries in the European Union.
Donald Trump has tried to move the US in the opposite direction, but his first term as president caused only a brief uptick in emissions. For most of the past two decades US emissions have been falling, according to the authors of the report.
New Zealand, Latvia, Slovenia, Lithuania, the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Togo and the host of Cop29, Azerbaijan, had all decoupled before 2015, but their growth has since again become dependent on fossil fuels.
The report underlines how international talks, such as the United Nations Cop gatherings, have helped to drive an energy transition, even if progress has so far failed to keep pace with the threat posed by human-caused global heating.
An earlier analysis, by the ECIU shows that the growth of annual CO2 emissions has slowed to 1.2% since 2015, compared with 18.4% in the decade before the Paris agreement.
That agreement, which was signed by nearly 200 countries in 2015, included a commitment to limit heating to well below 2C above preindustrial levels. That sent a strong signal to businesses and governments that they needed to find alternatives to the oil, gas and coal responsible for climate disruption.
As a result, the projection for end-of-century global heating has fallen from 4C to 2.6C. Despite this progress, the authors say more rapid action is needed in the coming decade to stabilise the climate.
With emissions slowing, many analysts hope the peak could finally be in sight, which would usher in the fall that is essential if the world is to keep global heating to between 1.5C and 2C above preindustrial levels by the end of the century.
John Lang, the author of the ECIU report, said: “I’m definitely encouraged. Looking back shows how much progress we have made over the past 10 years. The world is now in a pre-conditioning stage ahead of structural decline. We are approaching a historic point when emissions start to go down. That is super exciting.”
